Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

So, stock price, remember that...?

Some cheer today, with the SP sort-of following the macro with its usual multiplier. I can't help thinking it wanted to break-out though, but kept getting pegged-back at key moments - the dips being amplified by clever selling at the right moment.

I don't think it's the shorts today, rather the MM's keeping it close to the max pain of $275 tomorrow.

All pure speculation, of course.

 

[MXWing]

Is this your first day in America/Planet Earth?

I could see the leaf being a great option as a 3rd car JUST to go to work and back if you had a shortish commute.

Against the 35K Model 3 even?

Less safe, (most accidents are close to come), horrible battery degradation, worthless resell value.

Looks like a frog. Newest version is better but objectively and subjectively uglier than the 3.

My 3rd car is going to be a budget Model 3 that will transition perfectly to the Model Y at the right time.

No purpose I see for a Leaf.

 

[Curt Renz]

The caveat there is that the expiration of the current $3750 isn't waiting for this bill to move through Congress. Anyone who waits may find themselves missing out on any credit if the bill ends up stalling. As they say "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

Indeed. If they buy today and the bill eventually passes, they can claim the $7000 credit early next year. If they buy today and the bill does not pass, they can still claim the $3750 credit early next year.

If they wait until after midyear and the bill does not pass, the credit becomes $1875. if they wait until next year and the bill does not pass, the credit becomes zero.

 

[Nocturnal]

Ugh Niedermeyer. A doper article whining that Lex Fridman's Autopilot research is flimsy because, well, Tesla owners love Tesla too much and are biased!

Meanwhile, Tesla Death Watch man is totally objective, right...

Having customers that like your product too much is a bad thing for any business....

 

[jerry33]

Good for your co worker and all but we are applauding her for not being an idiot and having common sense?

These days, not being an idiot and having common sense is the equivalent of graduating in the top 1% at MIT.

 

[Nocturnal]

I get excited when I see "tsla stock get's a bump" and then it's only a few bucks. I miss the days when it could go up 20 bucks in a day.

Against the 35K Model 3 even?

Less safe, (most accidents are close to come), horrible battery degradation, worthless resell value.

Looks like a frog. Newest version is better but objectively and subjectively uglier than the 3.

My 3rd car is going to be a budget Model 3 that will transition perfectly to the Model Y at the right time.

No purpose I see for a Leaf.

The only reason I see it working is if you are eligible for the full 7500.

 

[jerry33]

Is this your first day in America/Planet Earth?

I could see the leaf being a great option as a 3rd car JUST to go to work and back if you had a shortish commute.

The 2019 Leaf can have a 226 mile range, so it's now more equivalent to a Bolt.

 

[Cloxxki]

The software fix was only for repeated emergency braking. Something not likely to occur on a regular street.

From the horse's mouth:

Tesla Model 3 Falls Short of a CR Recommendation

First test was good. After that one, none were.
So if you break hard today, even tomorrow it's not going to be the same.

1- Would you call that "racing" or "circuit punishment", even "repeated braking"?
2 -Would you consider that a normal thing to slip while thousands of cars are built?
3- Do you consider it even ethical to upload an "update" and not thoroughly testing a single specimen thoroughly for thousands of cars sent into traffic?

If you can say yes to merely one out of three, you can't blame the general public for feeling that Tesla uses unsuspecting consumers as guinea pigs.

4- Don't you think it's good to hold even your gods to higher standards, let alone a friggin' car company? Don't forget, in the TSLA thread, that it's a publicly traded for-profit company. Not a meme factory in someone's mom's basement.

 

[jerry33]

Looks like a frog. Newest version is better but objectively and subjectively uglier than the 3.

The frog eyes were not originally planned, but when they actually tested the car, the wind noise was so bad that they had add the frog eyes to silence it (my understanding of what happened). It's the kind of thing that happens when you convert an existing design. I don't disagree with what you say though. 3 is much better looking.

 

[VValleyEV]

As far as BEV tax credits, I would prefer some different incentive mechanism mechanism altogether, or better yet (and this ain’t gonna happen), eliminate the massive oil industry subsidies and we wouldn’t need any BEV incentives at all for them to compete. Our oil subsidies have created this problem, so currently we give lip service to BEV support by some tax incentives that are small potatoes in comparison, setting up the FUDsters to complain that BEVs only exist because of these tax breaks.

But ANYWAY, getting back to the subject of how to craft a better cutoff formula for existing BEV tax credits, I like this one a lot:

cutoff after a certain percentage of new cars produced in a year are EVs

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

That is correct. Though it has gone up to about $55K for Single and $113K for MFJ. But this level of AGI is close 70th percentile across the U.S. This is why some argue the EV credit is geared towards the wealthy.

It will be awhile before a “large portion” of the population goes electric. For the average person in the US, current electric car prices don’t make economic sense. M3 is not a mass market car yet if it is priced similar to a BMW 3.

For the median person in the USA, no new cars make economic sense, and that's why many more people buy used than new.

In 2015 the average new car buyer earned $80k per year.

 

[ZsoZso]

From the horse's mouth:

Tesla Model 3 Falls Short of a CR Recommendation

First test was good. After that one, none were.
So if you break hard today, even tomorrow it's not going to be the same.

1- Would you call that "racing" or "circuit punishment", even "repeated braking"?
2 -Would you consider that a normal thing to slip while thousands of cars are built?
3- Do you consider it even ethical to upload an "update" and not thoroughly testing a single specimen thoroughly for thousands of cars sent into traffic?

If you can say yes to merely one out of three, you can't blame the general public for feeling that Tesla uses unsuspecting consumers as guinea pigs.

4- Don't you think it's good to hold even your gods to higher standards, let alone a friggin' car company? Don't forget, in the TSLA thread, that it's a publicly traded for-profit company. Not a meme factory in someone's mom's basement.

How often do you perform back-to-back hard emergency braking during everyday driving ???
Because that is the scenario CR tested and Tesla did not. If you let the breaks cool down everything was fine,
so your highlighted statement is a straight lie.

 

[Curt Renz]

ARK Invest will host its quarterly webinar tomorrow at 4:15 pm EDT. This is in addition to their monthly webinar held yesterday. The webinar will conclude with a Q&A session during which you can send questions.

Tesla is the largest holding among the ARK ETFs (exchange traded funds). I own shares of their ARKK fund. Tesla is usually mentioned during their primary webinar presentations or in the Q&A portion. GoToWebinar Launcher

 

[Lessmog]

Wired have been pretty bearish on Tesla in the past, but this is a very objective article:

Tesla, by comparison, appears to have better battery-engineering prowess, and more experience with the technology. “One of the possible reasons for Tesla going with the full nominal capacity could be that they have a better thermal management system, which makes sure the battery doesn't degrade as much even with full capacity" - no *sugar*, Sherlock!

Tesla might also be better at wringing more miles out of the battery because the company has a decade’s worth of research as a head start. - who woulda thunk it?

Except they don't use the full nominal capacity of the pack.

Sly so-&so's, hiding aces up their ... batts?

 

[Thekiwi]

Indeed. If they buy today and the bill eventually passes, they can claim the $7000 credit early next year. If they buy today and the bill does not pass, they can still claim the $3750 credit early next year.

If they wait until after midyear and the bill does not pass, the credit becomes $1875. if they wait until next year and the bill does not pass, the credit becomes zero.

You missed an option: they buy this year, get either the $3750 or $1875 tax credit. Bill passes some time later next year (after tax rebate cut off) and they have buyers remorse because they missed out on an additional $3250 or $5125 tax rebate they would have had if they waited.

I think the “gamble” becomes more lopsided from July 1st: You are then only getting the $1875 rebate so the cost benefit of waiting until 2020 to purchase is either missing out on the $1875 rebate which expires at end of 2019, or gaining an additional $5125 rebate with the proposed $7000 extended credit.

I would expect the above to become a major FUD attack vector soon.

 

[Doggydogworld]

How often do you perform back-to-back hard emergency braking during everyday driving ???
Because that is the scenario CR tested and Tesla did not. If you let the breaks cool down everything was fine,
so your highlighted statement is a straight lie.

CR said: "In our testing of the Model 3, the first stop we recorded was significantly shorter (around 130 feet, similar to Tesla’s findings), but that distance was not repeated, even after we let the brakes cool overnight."

Shouldn't you at least read the article he linked before calling him a liar?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

That's bullshit. That doesn't even happen on the track after just two braking episodes.

Guyyyys, regardless of which side you’re on, can we stop debating an issue that was resolved a year ago? It has no current impact on Tesla’s SP.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

You missed an option: they buy this year, get either the $3750 or $1875 tax credit. Bill passes some time next year and they have buyers remorse because they missed out on an additional $3250 or $5125 tax rebate they would have had if they waited.

I think the “gamble” becomes more lopsided from July 1st: You are then only getting the $1875 rebate so the cost benefit of waiting until 2020 to purchase is either missing out on the $1875 rebate which expires at end of 2019, or gaining an additional $5125 rebate with the proposed $7000 extended credit.

Right, it’s basically: Buy now and get a guaranteed $3750, with possible $7000 or buy later and roll the dice, getting $0, $1875(if you give up and buy H2) or $7000(with the likelihood of $7000 being very slightly higher than if you buy now).

Once it drops to $1875(really, if, assuming it doesn’t pass before then), that does shift it somewhat, but waiting means you either get $0 or get $5125 extra *a year later than otherwise*.

 

[Thekiwi]

Is this your first day in America/Planet Earth?

I could see the leaf being a great option as a 3rd car JUST to go to work and back if you had a shortish commute.

Seems a common belief on this board that all other EVs are horrible pieces of crap and people should never ever consider them.

Reality is many can’t afford an entry level $35k 3, and for them a used low capacity EV is a great option for a 2nd car or a primary car if they don’t do long trips. It also grows the user base of EV owners (beneficial to Tesla), which increases demand for EV chargers (beneficial for Tesla) and adds to the overall market perception that EVs are viable (beneficial to Tesla).

Whenever someone who is an ICE owner decides to buy a cheap EV as a 2nd car “for the short commutes” it will make it far more likely they will consider a Tesla for their primary vehicle when it comes time to upgrade as they will already have experienced the benefits of an EV.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

You missed an option: they buy this year, get either the $3750 or $1875 tax credit. Bill passes some time later next year (after tax rebate cut off) and they have buyers remorse because they missed out on an additional $3250 or $5125 tax rebate they would have had if they waited.

I think the “gamble” becomes more lopsided from July 1st: You are then only getting the $1875 rebate so the cost benefit of waiting until 2020 to purchase is either missing out on the $1875 rebate which expires at end of 2019, or gaining an additional $5125 rebate with the proposed $7000 extended credit.

You do have to take into account that this absolutely no hope of passing, because even if it got through the House, it won't get through the Senate, and even if, somehow, it got through the Senate, it wouldn't get enough votes to get past the veto.

It's just an "election bill".