Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aznt1217]

So last year, Tesla released Q1 2018 results on May 2, 2018.

This year they're releasing Q1 2019 results on April 24, 2019, two days after the AI / Autopilot / FSD event.

Any significance to this moving up of the schedule?

Probably not TBH. More likely just revolving around Management schedule. I wouldn't read too much into it.

 

[mekberg]

How is Tesla going to make a profit in Q2 with low S/X sales and they are practically giving them away, still?

Raven may be closer than we think?

 

[ZsoZso]

So last year, Tesla released Q1 2018 results on May 2, 2018.

This year they're releasing Q1 2019 results on April 24, 2019, two days after the AI / Autopilot / FSD event.

Any significance to this moving up of the schedule?

Yes, it proves that the new younger CFO has faster fingers on the calculator!

Math GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

 

[Bet TSLA]

Agreed. Hopefully Tesla will address it, but I can't believe that Nikkei would post a completely false article.

Why not? It's the standard source for Apple FUD. "We've seen ripples in the supply chain! Apple is doomed!" This has been going on for decades now. And yes, it's always wrong, and everybody falls for it every time. Total rag.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Maybe the new CFO in an attempt to impress his boss has rushed through the financials and made some glaring errors? That’d be bad, eh? Unless the mistakes were the kind that make the report worse than reality.

Let me try again.

Maybe because they sold so few vehicles the maths are just that much easier, hence report earlier. Hmmm....despite the distortion field currently surrounding the planet, they still sold a lot of cars with a YOY increase plus a lot of one time charges - nope, maths should be as hard as always.

One last kick at the can.

They have no money left, so nobody would care what the report says; bankrupt.

Did that help?

You suck at FUD...just sayin'. LOL!

Dan

 

[mongo]

How is Tesla going to make a profit in Q2 with low S/X sales and they are practically giving them away, still?

Giving them away?
Did you factor in removal of lower margin 75s, reduction in equipment depreciation, and reduction in overhead (3 taking on Fremont cost)??

 

[bdy0627]

Tesla has never been just a car company and never will be (unless car makers become more like Tesla) Tesla even changed their name and it is still confusing to some people...

True, but we can't ignore where the vast majority of its revenue comes from. As of Q4, auto revenue represents about 90% of total revenue. That may change in the future, but with the aggressive production plans for the 3 and Y, it probably won't change much over the next few years.

 

[Cobbler]

Raven may be closer than we think?

RAVEN
A reference to the X-men characters (as some of their robots are named after)

An old character (above 84 years) but always young looking.
Raven achieved greater powers and could change her total body mass after being blasted with x-rays ...hint..hint....

 

[Sparky]

OT: I just bought some more at $266. I had a self-imposed rule against trading any more until after the P&D and was bummed to have to miss the earlier entry into $260s. Following rules is fun!

 

[bdy0627]

WSJ trying to spin Catherine Woods comment..

irony of life on Twitter


@CGrantWSJ Cathie, did you just declare that you have access to insider information? Your statement was not an speculation, but endorsement of info not known to public! Remember you added to your position! Thoughts? $tslaq

Guessing he didn't check out her publicly available interview of Elon last month. There was some good stuff in there.

 

[carterm2]

Tesla is showing profits while growing sales 110% YOY.

I am not sure why you did not notice...

The conversation will close on this article 48 hours from publication.

Article published...
By
Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.
April 9, 2019 7:15 p.m. ET

and also in print

Appeared in the April 10, 2019, print edition as 'Get Ready for a Pileup, Tesla.'

The WSJ does not show your comment... Please let me know how to review it... I have also commented on WSJ articles, and I don't see my own submissions including to this article.... They only show a handful of the comments... They show a dozen comments out of more than 650, (it was plus 200 when I commented.)

I did mention this to you yesterday...?

 

[trentbridge]

How is Tesla going to make a profit in Q2 with low S/X sales and they are practically giving them away, still?

We need the Q1 2019 results to see five things before assessing the profits for Q2:

1) Gross Margin on Model 3
2) Gross Margin on Model S/X

This is not announced but you can estimate these two items using the total automotive gross profit, the number of units delivered and the total gross revenue..

3) SG&A expense - has it declined with layoffs or has it remained stable? Is there a "restructuring charge "as a separate item?
4) R&D expense..stable or declining
5) Energy Storage Revenue and Gross Margin..

I would expect some seasonal increase in Model S/X sales in Q2 and the margin question will be answered with the Q1 results..

I don't believe Tesla is pricing their vehicles in a panic mode as bears are suggesting..and some of the price reductions are offset by increases in efficiency. Plus, I suspect that Tesla has positioned vehicles in China in Q1 in the event that China increased tariffs in the trade war with Trump...so there might be far higher sales therre than in Q3 and Q4 2018.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

True, but we can't ignore where the vast majority of its revenue comes from. As of Q4, auto revenue represents about 90% of total revenue. That may change in the future, but with the aggressive production plans for the 3 and Y, it probably won't change much over the next few years.

Books used to be 100% of amazons revenue

 

[Fact Checking]

How is Tesla going to make a profit in Q2 with low S/X sales and they are practically giving them away, still?

Whenever the TSLA price is under pressure you tend to write these panicked, borderline nonsensical messages that don't seem to match your overall bullish positioning. Just sayin'

S/X demand will be just fine in Q2, especially if they do a refresh. "Giving them away"?? Did you confuse the S/X with the E-Tron?

 

[carterm2]

OT: I just bought some more at $266. I had a self-imposed rule against trading any more until after the P&D and was bummed to have to miss the earlier entry into $260s. Following rules is fun!

Stock was at 268 how did you get it at 266? I also have an order in at 265.50... weird. see chart inline.

 

[Fact Checking]

If they did in fact break even at 600k sales volume then that suggests more than a decade to break even. Even if you go with their target 300/day that is still 6 years to break even. They would have to make and sell cars at a real rate to break even in any reasonable time frame. If their sales already can't keep up with essentially no production that does not bode well.

Also, in those 6 years they'd have to convince customers to keep buying the other 99% of Audi's production: diesel and gasoline engine based cars in the premium cars market.

(Can we say Audi is "burning cash", or is that phrase exclusively reserved for Tesla? )

 

[MarcusMaximus]

So last year, Tesla released Q1 2018 results on May 2, 2018.

This year they're releasing Q1 2019 results on April 24, 2019, two days after the AI / Autopilot / FSD event.

Any significance to this moving up of the schedule?

It’s typically a bullish signal. Not guaranteed, though, of course.

 

[bdy0627]

The next couple of weeks should be some very interesting trading. The obvious expectation is for a climb leading up to the FSD event, followed by a sell the news afterwards. Given the very negative sentiment in regards to Q1 financials, we should be dropping leading up to the ER as shorts get feverish over it and the media hype up the doom and gloom. Might be worth buying a few puts right near market close on the day of the FSD event, then buy some calls right before market close leading into the ER. Of course, the market shouldn't be that predictable. If the stock actually climbs after the FSD event then I would be prepared for a drop after the ER.

 

[EVDRVN]

Stock was at 268 how did you get it at 266? I also have an order in at 265.50... weird. see chart inline.

There was a coupon for $2 off on TD Ameritrade today if you bought more than 10 shares. I think it's still up on the site.

 

[SunCatcher]

View attachment 395809

Remind you of anyone?

"The age of Tesla is over. The time of the Shorts has begun..." Gothmog Chanos