Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

There are indeed pathways by which Tesla could be taken private at an unduly low valuation. Doing so would in practice hugely disadvantage smallbeer private investors as the risk/reward ratio would be heavily agin them.

That's the second time I've seen you refer to "smallbeer investors", the first time I thought it was a typo for "smaller investors". But now I'm wondering why you don't get yourself a bigger beer? After all, we are TSLA investors, not RIVN or LCID investors! /s

 

[Singuy]

James is throwing a little cold water on the uber bullish Tesla Energy speculation. He thinks the margin estimates by that one twitter account referenced here several times are way too high/optimistic.

Yeah there should be more optimism via software sales this Q. FSD take rate for Q4 stayed flat, however there was an increase # of cars sold, and EAP revenue surged all over the world. This doesn't even include subscriptions or people who purchased FSD/EAP as a DLC.

 

[SunCatcher]

As I skim through the myriad of posts on this thread I'm constantly reminded of a simple key objective fact that can dismiss/dismantle all the FUD.

1. NO company currently makes money (net revenue) selling BEVs (and don't say Polestar, maybe next quarter if/when they scale).

Not only does Tesla make profit/car, the profits are huge and growing as they scale to 2m+/year runrate, they dominate the world's largest auto markets. Therefore, whenever Tesla lowers prices, that signals to other manufacturers they will lose more money per car sold as they will need to lower their prices to keep current market share. As Tesla continues to make money, they continue to lose more and that can only go on for so many quarters.

That's it, one key simple objective fact, everything flows from this.

All this other handwringing is futile/moot.

And, I predict, TE will demonstrate a similar market dynamic as they scale where other manufacturers will need to drop prices to the point of negative net revenue as Tesla scale saturates the markets worldwide.

The only points that can be discussed is this IMO:

1. Can any company out innovate Tesla?
2. Can any company scale BEV faster?

I think not, as they can't acquire the talent necessary to achieve that goal.

Are you sure about this? I haven't looked far, but this came right up on a quick search; (From Oct. 2022)

"BYD's net profit for the July-September quarter reached 5.72 billion yuan ($788.75 million), while that for the first nine months increased 281% to 9.31 billion yuan, the company said in a stock exchange filing on Friday"

BYD posts 350% jump in Q3 net profit on sales surge

China's biggest electric vehicle (EV) maker BYD said its third-quarter net profit jumped 350% from a year ago, helped by a wider range of product offerings and strong sales that saw it beat Tesla in the world's largest auto market.

www.reuters.com

Edit: Never mind, As Discoducky points out below, BYD is not an EV only company...

 

[capster]

More broadly: idea first, explanation second.

It's a hugely beneficial tip for me that I got from watching a TED talk. It has listeners engaged and gives them the idea to attach your explanation to. It also means that people can't figure out the idea before you reach it and steal your thunder.

As somebody who likes people to understand ideas, I naturally tended to lead with the explanation, but I switched and my communication is much better for it. I'm an introvert who never debated or took public speaking so I was late to learn.

PS Did you see what I did there?
PPS The Model Y isn't an SUV. It's also $66k with an inflated price and fat margins. Better to be complaining to the IRS that the other manufacturers appear to be making questionable submissions.

Here is what I sent:

"Subject: Pls make all Tesla Model Y’s SUV’s for the IRA (OMB Control No. 1545-2137)

Hello,

Please categorize all variants of the Tesla Model Y as SUV’s for the purposes of the Inflation Reduction Act. That would be best for the country and most in keeping with the stated purpose of the Act. It would also be fair and accurate.

Thank you,

"

It’s concise. It has one ask that would do Tesla the most good and that might actually happen.

You are welcome to argue against the other manufacturers. I did not because that would add a negative cast to the note, add another ask that clouds the matter, and adds an ask that is unlikely, imho, to happen given the state of play.

Also, I kinda think the PHEV subsidies provide more rope for the legacy manufacturers to hang themselves with: BEV’s are already the better product.

I went with the salutation "Hello" because it is short and disengendered. It’s casual, but still fine I thought.

edit: I also like to put the entirety of the main point in the subject when possible so the person doesn’t have to open the email to know what’s in it. If they do open it, you get the advantage of repeating the point without actually doing so in the body. Just a little lesson in concision and corporate email foo for the day.

 

[Stretch2727]

Mary continues to lead.

https://investor.gm.com/static-files/ae2c7453-c68c-4d06-afeb-eb8002cf0c01

q4 EV's

Bolt - 16108
Hummer - 72
Lyriq - 86

The Hummer and Lyriq really low after almost 1 year since launch. 854 Hummer n 2022 so it appears they slowed down. Only 112 Lyriq for the year.

They do not have any PHEV.

 

[cliff harris]

There is a lot of discussion of utility scale storage but not much about the humble power-wall. It feels that in the UK at least, the power-wall is a tad overpriced compared to alternatives. I recently got a 9.5kwh givenergy battery installed and it was cheaper (although not directly comparable).
The potential market for home storage is HUGE. I know a bunch of people considering solar, and ALL of them are pairing it with storage. Due to the fact that peak energy demand in the UK is in the evening (TV/cooking) and peak generation midday, people in the UK wouldnt consider buying solar panels that only work when they dont need them...

I suspect this time-shift capability isn't so obvious to posters on here from warm US states who think of solar as a way to power their aircon .

I reduce my electricity costs by 75% by simply time shifting using a home battery. If Tesla can make enough, and be price comparable, there is a huge market here for people who would very much like just ONE app for the car, the solar and the battery.

The advantage Tesla have over other battery storage companies is the unified brand. Why buy a Nissan leaf, A ZAPPI charger, Panasonic Solar panels and an Alpha ESS battery when all 4 can come in one unified, branded package?

 

[PeterJA]

As the share price continues bobbing in the toilet, and the media and analysts and burned gamblers continue blathering on and on about dire threats from competition and 5% Fed rates and Elon's terrible tweets, it might cheer up gloomy investors to remember how much we don't know about Tesla's continuing work behind closed doors.

If history is any guide, we are gonna be pleasantly surprised.

• Nobody expected Model S (which won damn-near every award for excellence).
• Nobody expected falcon doors on Model X (which required firing the original supplier).
• Nobody expected innovations like octovalve and giant castings and carbon-fiber wrapped motors (which all shocked industry veteran Sandy Munro).
• Nobody expected integrated vehicle software and wireless updates (which competitors still can't fully match).
• Nobody expected Cybertruck (which now has a backlog of millions).
• Nobody expected a 500-mile BEV Semi (which some folks still can't believe).
• Nobody expected solar cells embedded in glass roof tiles (which survived recent hurricanes).
• Nobody expected in-house designed supercomputers (with greater capability than most in the world).
• Nobody expected Optimus (which went from dancing joke to working prototypes in a few months).
• Nobody expected Tesla Insurance (which is preparing for the domination of Tesla robotaxis).
• Nobody expected the achievements of Elon's other teams, such as reusable rockets and satellite internet and dirt-cheap tunnels and brain-computer interfaces.

As I may have opined before, the world has never seen a company like this, with this combination of creativity, ambition, and mission-driven determination. We really have no idea what they are capable of.

Elon has said life can't be only about solving one gloomy problem after another. We need something to look forward to. I am very much looking forward to March 1, when Tesla will give us a peek inside their doors.

Tesla Announces Date for 2023 Investor Day | Tesla Investor Relations

We plan to host Tesla's 2023 Investor Day on March 1, 2023. The event will be live streamed from our Gigafactory Texas, with the option for some of our institutional and retail investors to attend in person (details to follow). Our investors will be able to see our most advanced production line...

ir.tesla.com

 

[scaesare]

I strongly suspect that since Elon is clearly on-record as mostly anti-subsidy, he won't go for the clever gimmicky solutions floating around this thread. I think he'll support only solutions that take the high road like reduced MSRP, or only selling 7-seaters in US, etc. Just my subjective read on Elon.

I think he's anti-subsidy across the board... I suspect he's not in favor of eliminating subsidies for individual players, and then arbitrarily allowing them for questionable vehicles (like lame 3KWh hybrids).

As such, I suspect he may consider strategies to allow the best-selling BEV to participate....

 

[Discoducky]

Are you sure about this? I haven't looked far, but this came right up on a quick search; (From Oct. 2022)

"BYD's net profit for the July-September quarter reached 5.72 billion yuan ($788.75 million), while that for the first nine months increased 281% to 9.31 billion yuan, the company said in a stock exchange filing on Friday"

BYD posts 350% jump in Q3 net profit on sales surge

China's biggest electric vehicle (EV) maker BYD said its third-quarter net profit jumped 350% from a year ago, helped by a wider range of product offerings and strong sales that saw it beat Tesla in the world's largest auto market.

www.reuters.com

They sell mainly/mostly/predominately ICE cars. Did you know this before you posted?

 

[scaesare]

Could face charges? If it was indeed an intentional act, he MUST face charges. I would think the authorities have some pretty convincing evidence (like testimony from the wife) to make that assertion.

I wonder if it's possible to still extract the vehicle logs... I bet yes, given the biological occupants survived with minimal injury.

 

[SunCatcher]

They sell mainly/mostly/predominately ICE cars. Did you know this before you posted?

Ah so, mea culpa. Thanks...

 

[Singuy]

As the share price continues bobbing in the toilet, and the media and analysts and burned gamblers continue blathering on and on about dire threats from competition and 5% Fed rates and Elon's terrible tweets, it might cheer up gloomy investors to remember how much we don't know about Tesla's continuing work behind closed doors.

If history is any guide, we are gonna be pleasantly surprised.

• Nobody expected Model S (which won damn-near every award for excellence).
• Nobody expected falcon doors on Model X (which required firing the original supplier).
• Nobody expected innovations like octovalve and giant castings and carbon-fiber wrapped motors (which all shocked industry veteran Sandy Munro).
• Nobody expected integrated vehicle software and wireless updates (which competitors still can't fully match).
• Nobody expected Cybertruck (which now has a backlog of millions).
• Nobody expected a 500-mile BEV Semi (which some folks still can't believe).
• Nobody expected solar cells embedded in glass roof tiles (which survived recent hurricanes).
• Nobody expected in-house designed supercomputers (with greater capability than most in the world).
• Nobody expected Optimus (which went from dancing joke to working prototypes in a few months).
• Nobody expected Tesla Insurance (which is preparing for the domination of Tesla robotaxis).
• Nobody expected the achievements of Elon's other teams, such as reusable rockets and satellite internet and dirt-cheap tunnels and brain-computer interfaces.

As I may have opined before, the world has never seen a company like this, with this combination of creativity, ambition, and mission-driven determination. We really have no idea what they are capable of.

Elon has said life can't be only about solving one gloomy problem after another. We need something to look forward to. I am very much looking forward to March 1, when Tesla will give us a peek inside their doors.

Tesla Announces Date for 2023 Investor Day | Tesla Investor Relations

We plan to host Tesla's 2023 Investor Day on March 1, 2023. The event will be live streamed from our Gigafactory Texas, with the option for some of our institutional and retail investors to attend in person (details to follow). Our investors will be able to see our most advanced production line...

ir.tesla.com

"....as well as discuss long term expansion plans"

I thought growth is over, not only over but contracting, Tsla-> auto valuation as everything is going bankrupt through this transition.

 

[scaesare]

I switched from Nationwide to Tesla insurance VA. Saved like 60-70$ /mth (plans were comparable, but didn't compare in detail)

One piece of info - if you have just one Tesla, Tesla insurance might also cover the non-Tesla car. Will try it out in a few mths. cheers!!

Also in VA and switched almost a yr ago. Saved even more than that, and also added my ICE to the policy... saved there too.

My cost has gone down since, as the app has had opportunity to gather my driving metrics....

 

[H Mak]

Investing 101: never pays to be elated at top and despondent at bottom
Luckily, TMC has several veteran Tesla investors who engage in exactly the reverse and therefore are deservedly wealthy
Unlike the bird

This leads to the biggest mistake investors make: buying high and selling low.
They are elated so they buy. They are despondent so they sell.

THIS. IS. THE. WRONG. WAY. ROUND!

 

[oldTAVguy]

Mary continues to lead.

https://investor.gm.com/static-files/ae2c7453-c68c-4d06-afeb-eb8002cf0c01

q4 EV's

Bolt - 16108
Hummer - 72
Lyriq - 86

The Hummer and Lyriq really low after almost 1 year since launch. 854 Hummer n 2022 so it appears they slowed down. Only 112 Lyriq for the year.

They do not have any PHEV.

18% of GM in dealer inventory at end of year. Need to see what last year was. (approx 5% for tesla, and these were mostly on trucks and ships)

2.5% increase in total production for all of 2022 over 2021.

 

[scaesare]

Honestly this is stupid. Making it sound like EVs dont get a tax credit because some cars that were eligible in 2022 are still eligible are the cars now getting the credit. Maybe Maye could have made it be known that tax credits for Tesla's are back.

It may appear stupid if evaluating what POTUS said was factually correct... it technically was, as the IRA credit does indeed allow for an EV to qualify.

Problem is, it excludes the EV model that sells in larger numbers than most of the other manufactures sell put together, and puts 20 EV-mile hybris on equal footing, making the comment seem rather intellectually dishonest.

That's what it appears to me Maye was pointing out, which I don't think is stupid at all.

 

[MXWing]

We love uncle Leo's commitment to Tesla but he does seem to take it way to personal that Elon unfollowed him.

Uncle Leo assumed Elon cares about single individuals. He does not.

"Light of consciousness of humanity" Love in "general"? Thumbs up from Elon.

Tim, Dick, Jane, Harry and Leo? They can F right off. His response to a child disowning him? "Can't win em all!"

Elon's ruthlessness got him to where he is but you gotta call a spade a spade.

 

[Stretch2727]

And this from GM.

"GM plans to build on this momentum in North America in 2023, growing EV market share with nine EV models on sale, including the Chevrolet Bolt EV and Bolt EUV, which was the bestselling mainstream EV series in the third and fourth quarter."

I just don't know how they can say something like that. Model 3 and Y are not mainstream? First time I realized I am driving an odd ball car.

 

[wipster]

Wow. GM said Wednesday it sold 2.27 million vehicles, including >40,000 BEV's, primarily to dealers in the U.S. in 2022, up by 2.5% over 2021.

Whereas Tesla sold 1.31 million BEV's directly to customers globally in 2022, up by more than 40% compared to 2021.

Who's winning again?

 

[Dikkie Dik]

They sell mainly/mostly/predominately ICE cars

They ditched ICE in favor of PHEV and BEV as of march last year:

BYD Stops Production Of ICE-Only Cars, Focuses On PHEVs And EVs | Carscoops

BYD produced more "New Energy Vehicles" in March than any other automaker in China

www.carscoops.com