Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

I’d remove the terns of invective…”distrust”…”question the motivations.” Short of a formal accusation, these only strengthen bureaucratic resistance to change.

I disagree if the letter is going to members of Congress because elected officials are all about the optics that their constituents see the world through. If it's to the Treasury Department, then maybe you have a good point. On the other hand, they need to be cognizant of the optics of their decisions too. The letter becomes rather bland without pointing out how bad it looks to regular folks.

 

[capster]

I see what you did there: You didn’t state your country of citizenship (you are Canadian, iirc).

Also, it might be worthwhile if someone here would find a statement of purpose in the "Inflation Reduction Act" (why isn’t there an airquote emoji?) to quote.

Ideally it would say something about effeciency and developing a strong EV ecosystem and market.

That way we wouldn’t need to say things (or only things) like “I believe the incentives should be directed…" We could say "This is the stated intent of the law and your rules could better help achieve this intent by categorizing the Tesla Model Y as an SUV (which it it is based on its utility, e.g. it’s cargo capacity and handling capabilities). "

Also I would state what you want up front so they don’t have to read further:

"Dear Sir or Madam, [ or whatever salutation you prefer, e.g. S’up IRS Peeps]

I am writing to ask that you please categorize the Tesla Model Y as an SUV for the purposes of the Inflation Reduction Act because that would be both fair and best for the country.

These are my reasons [blah, blah, blah]…"

People are looking for a reason to stop reading. Odds are the IRS folks are just going to count ’votes‘ on the matter and skip the rationales.

Courtesy goes a long way too—it’s surprising how few people realize that. Even if it doesn’t help achieve anything, it is good for your own self to be courteous particularly if you feel someone else is somehow unworthy your courtesy.

 

[insaneoctane]

I posted earlier that if they actually hit 50% yoy production growth and keeping the same gap percentage wise between deliveries/production, they would have delivered 1.35M cars, which is closer to 45% yoy. So it was a production issue, not a demand issue everyone is yelling about. I honestly didn't think Tesla predicted China was going to abandon their zero covid policy late NOV.

While I distinctly remember them repeatedly using the phrase "over a multi-year horizon" multiple times (which plays into your comment perfectly), Tesla also did later comment on 50% (and more!) with more granularity applied to specific years.

 

[Knightshade]

I have no doubts that that account has over-indulged in hopium.

Not sure I’d say worthy of the trash bin, but we’re not seeing 70% gross margins on Megapacks, that is certain.

I do think we’ll see some good news from Megapacks, but not the scale he’s talking up. Here is a decent counterfactual from James Stephenson—also a Tesla bear, but one who is a bit more grounded.

...when did James become a bear? For years his estimates on P&D and profits were hilariously optimistic...

( he had almost 50k semis coming out of Gigatexas in 2021 in one of his late 2020 "next year of production" estimates for example... and over 25k cybertrucks- plus the new compact selling thousands by Q4 2021 and overall 2021 production up 120% from 2020... even when he revised them in mid 2021 he had semis and CTs still shipping that year and was still significantly too high on production everywhere esp. new factories)

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Is good news good news now? I thought it was the other way round where good news for the economy means higher interest rates and bad news for investors.

Depends on the good news. "Massive drop in commodity and energy prices" v "Low unemployment".

 

[thx1139]

Sign the Petition

Fix the Inflation Reduction Act EV Tax Credit

www.change.org

crossed 25K.
Please add your voice if you haven't already ...

Also would be nice if Elon and Maye would tweet this out.

 

[stealthyc]

Unless he has cash on hand he’ll have to sell shares to buy them at 160. Taxes and a high price suggest he will overall have fewer shares than yesterday.

Possible he has the cash to buy at 160 but I feel like his antics suggest he doesn’t

Someone up thread posted a tweet from him saying he had the cash, no margin used

 

[EVWatcher]

Someone up thread posted a tweet from him saying he had the cash, no margin used

Well then uncle Leo needs to stop complaining about a buyback and put his money where is mouth is

 

[Discoducky]

I too would like to understand more.

• how is it monetised? up front cost, subscription, or % of savings?
  
  
• can it be sold as standalone software to get $, or is it simply linked to the hardware to increase those hardware sales?

This video, goes in-depth and covers the entire stack. For engineers interested in TE and VPP it is a must listen/grasp.

For this thread, it is must understand that writing something like this is not terribly hard, but it is non-trivial, time consuming and ultimately NOT something another company is doing because you'd have to have the vision to build it (aka a mission to hasten the transition to sustainable energy).

Key takeaways

• Ultimate scale, can handle millions of IOTs (Powerwalls, Powerpacks, Megapacks...etc)
• Ultimate speed/agility, can respond near instantaneously, at full power or minimal power, at full grid scale or down to a small defined locale/community/device type
• Ultimate arbitration, operates the same speed of the market (the power market) to be the first to respond at the latest broadcast prices
• Other things are cool as well, but those are the top.

 

[FSDtester#1]

What I sent to [email protected] and subject must be OMB Control No. 1545-2137.

I do believe it is best that they dont get the same email over and over again. Rewrite and make your own.





I am writing to express my concern about the $7500 tax credit given to plug-in hybrid vehicles. While I understand the intention of this credit is to encourage the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, I believe it is misguided to offer this credit to vehicles that are not as efficient as battery electric vehicles.



For example, the Jeep Wrangler plug-in hybrid is currently eligible for this credit, yet it can only go a maximum of 21 miles on electricity before the gasoline engine kicks in. This means that for the majority of its driving, it relies on fossil fuels and produces emissions just like a traditional gasoline vehicle.

I also want to bring to your attention the issue of certain highly efficient battery electric vehicles being excluded from this credit because they have been able to keep their weight down, which has caused them to not be classified as SUVs. However, lighter weight vehicles are generally more efficient and produce fewer emissions. Therefore, it seems counterintuitive to exclude these types of vehicles from the tax credit program.



Excluding highly efficient, low-emitting vehicles from the tax credit program sends the wrong message and does not effectively encourage the transition to cleaner transportation. I urge the IRS to reconsider the eligibility criteria for this credit and include all highly efficient battery electric vehicles, regardless of their weight or classification, in order to truly promote the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles.



In the end inefficient vehicles which add a small battery electric vehicles may have to be included because of the language of the law. If there is any way to exclude those then that should be done. Conversely if cars in the same category that both go 100s of miles on a single charge shouldn’t have 1 excluded because the less efficient model weights more while the more efficient model weights less. Doesn’t make sense to reward the less efficient vehicles while excluding the more efficient vehicles.



Sincerely,

Who here has Whole Mars ear on twitter ? That is the way to get it to EM

 

[Singuy]

Selling puts.

That’s essentially leverage (you potentially owe cash or shares.)

Only if they are naked puts. Selling covered puts like I said is the best way to accumulate shares.

 

[AndrewZ]

I predicted 6 months ago in a speech to over 200 people (not here) the fed would pivot and stop raising rates in January or February this year.. put it in your spreadsheet if you want.
Then make fun of me!

Edit: to be fair, I also predicted the mods would start liking @wipster by eoy 2022..
So, there's that

I don't know if they'll head excessively higher, some people still think a peak of 6.x% is possible, but I think they'll stay higher for longer than many expect

Either way when they do come down it'll be because prices have come down and demand is better balanced with supply across personal consumption items

 

[Dikkie Dik]

can handle millions of IOTs

I can see a connection

SpaceX to acquire Swarm Technologies - SpaceNews

SpaceX has quietly agreed to acquire Swarm Technologies, a company that operates a smallsat constellation providing internet-of-things services.

spacenews.com

 

[jamaatta]

I think there’s also a large component of the larger the installed base of tesla battery storage the more valuable the software becomes. Even if the software is of the same quality with someone else’s, teslas larger capacity effectively makes them an aspiring market maker for energy prices.

I'm just making a guess, but Tesla's AI knowledge might give them an advantage. See for example:

Tesla AI-powered battery facility opens in East Yorkshire, Europe’s largest

Europe’s largest battery energy storage facility has opened in East Yorkshire, offering backup power from renewable energy sources to up to...

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk

 

[dl003]

Well then uncle Leo needs to stop complaining about a buyback and put his money where is mouth is

To be fair, he already put his money where his mouth is. He's the 3rd largest individual holder after Elon and Larry after all. I think we need to stop bashing him. I think I know where he's coming from. He's leaning a bit on the romantic side. In his mind, he's having Tesla's and Elon's back and he wants them to have his back in return, whatever the definition might be to him. He's pissed because it feels like a one way street to him. It's very typical in Asian cultures. Elon unfollowing him didn't help. It'd be better if he'd never followed KoGuan in the first place.

I'm indifferent as to whether Tesla does buyback, but it does beg the question: does the company think buying the stock back $110 will give them a better ROI on their cash? Do they think the stock is worth at least $110? KoGuan Leo wants to know since he feels like he's in the trenches.

 

[trayloader]

Well then uncle Leo needs to stop complaining about a buyback and put his money where is mouth is

Maybe his "MISSION", actively supported by the state is to cobble up as many shares as possible?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Also I would state what you want up front so they don’t have to read further:

"Dear Sir or Madam, [ or whatever salutation you prefer, e.g. S’up IRS Peeps]

I am writing to ask that you please categorize the Tesla Model Y as an SUV for the purposes of the Inflation Reduction Act because that would be both fair and best for the country.

These are my reasons [blah, blah, blah]…"

People are looking for a reason to stop reading. Odds are the IRS folks are just going to count ’votes‘ on the matter and skip the rationales.

Courtesy goes a long way too—it’s surprising how few people realize that. Even if it doesn’t help achieve anything, it is good for your own self to be courteous particularly if you feel someone else is somehow unworthy your courtesy.

More broadly: idea first, explanation second.

It's a hugely beneficial tip for me that I got from watching a TED talk. It has listeners engaged and gives them the idea to attach your explanation to. It also means that people can't figure out the idea before you reach it and steal your thunder.

As somebody who likes people to understand ideas, I naturally tended to lead with the explanation, but I switched and my communication is much better for it. I'm an introvert who never debated or took public speaking so I was late to learn.

PS Did you see what I did there?
PPS The Model Y isn't an SUV. It's also $66k with an inflated price and fat margins. Better to be complaining to the IRS that the other manufacturers appear to be making questionable submissions.

 

[elasalle]

I switched from Nationwide to Tesla insurance VA. Saved like 60-70$ /mth (plans were comparable, but didn't compare in detail)

One piece of info - if you have just one Tesla, Tesla insurance might also cover the non-Tesla car. Will try it out in a few mths. cheers!!

 

[Eugene Ash]

Is it unique software, do other companies have similar, or could they develop it?

It is not unique, but it is built in the modern, proper and resilient way. They have offline features and are engineered to scale out to a huge number of packs, as opposed to a more traditional smaller number of nodes in grid.
//Edit: @Discoducky beat me to it
For engineers, here is a great primer:

 

[Chunky Jr.]

James is throwing a little cold water on the uber bullish Tesla Energy speculation. He thinks the margin estimates by that one twitter account referenced here several times are way too high/optimistic.