Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Here we are a dozen days into Q1, historically a slow quarter, and it seems that some want Tesla to react to indicators of increased inventory and sales concerns by lowering prices and other mechanisms, immediately, in order to bolster deliveries. Much hand-wringing over acting NOW appears to be more about reacting over concern rather than about responding with effective execution.

I say hogwash to these concerns being called for so early in the year. There is no pressing motivation to justify Tesla doing anything at this point. In fact, with this being the first few days of the not-yet-resolved IRA introduction into the sales mix it would be premature for them to do anything but wait and see how things progress for at least a month or so. (unless they have already come up with a brilliantly clever plan 🤔)

Speaking of which (i.e: brilliantly clever plans), they have set a date for an Investor Day six or so weeks from now. This seems more in line with an appropriate degree of time at which to respond with a strategy to address their evaluation of how the IRA will best be leveraged in regard to Tesla sales and pricing. (among a plethora of other mindbogglingly stupendous announcements)

Meanwhile, we wait expectantly for that first whiff of the lovely, Singed, Burnt Hair fragrance we have been promised will come in Q1.

This quarter looks to me as if it may not be so Boring after all, and the tink, tink, tink of the hyper-tightened GigaSpring goes on in the background, ready to be released like a Kraken against the fleet of FUD ships basking in the sun on the surface of the water quite unaware of what their siren songs have raised from the depths.

HODL
 
Last edited:
Tesla Solar Inverter Notes
I did some more research today.

Tesla launched this product two years ago in Jan 2021, as indicated by an Electrek article I found and a few other sources. Tesla's warranty document revision 1.0 is dated 7 Jan 2021 too. It looks like tesla.com has had this for a long time Tesla Solar Inverter | Tesla.

So, why are we suddenly hearing about this again? It appears that for some reason Tesla recently decided to publish this whitepaper. Why they're doing it now instead of two years ago, I have no idea. The whitepaper is dated just "2022" on the document itself, but its URL address is "https://...blah blah blah.../Tesla-Solar-Inverter-Architecture-White-Paper-NA-EN-12212022" indicating that it was published on 21 Dec 2022, which seems likely considering that this whitepaper hasn't been discovered by the online Tesla community until now.

[Edit: Maybe published now because Tesla is now selling it to third-party installers]
1673552209953.png



Tesla claims their inverter has reduced the all-in LCOE for home solar by 3-8% relative to competing systems. That isn't a massive difference overall, but if much of that cost improvement feeds into gross margin then it has been making a substantial difference for the profitability of Tesla Solar. The gross margins were thin to begin with, so a 5 or 6% boost is big and might double the profitability. If so, this has clearly been a materially contributing factor in Tesla's aggressively low prices for solar projects in the US and their price-match guarantee.

I don't have enough expertise in this area to evaluate how Tesla's inverter stacks up against other string inverters or how much their expertise and scale in power electronics really translates to cost and performance improvements as Tesla claims. It's one thing for Tesla to say that switching design architecture from having electronics on the roof under each panel to string inverters simplifies and saves money these days, but it's another to say that Tesla's string inverter solution is better than other string inverters.

Tesla claims the advantages over other string inverters are:
  • Higher reliability
  • 2x the standard number of MPPTs for high production on complex roofs
    • (4 per inverter)
  • Lower minimum input voltage per MPPT for enabling shorter strings of a few as two panels
  • No neutral wire for simpler installation
  • Seamless software integration with other Tesla Energy products
For any engineers who want to try tackling such a comparison, here is the official technical spec sheet for the inverter and its integrated emergency shutdown device, dated 2 Feb 2022. We can take further discussion to the engineering thread.
 
Last edited:
I've got beachfront real estate in Antarctica to sell if you if you believe this nonsense.

Yeah, I'm sure its just a coincidence that costs reduced a sudden 10% at the same time demand plummeted. Sure.



Lol. Right. We've already learned Tesla China cannot be trusted with their misleading statements.

Basically we can take nothing from all this information.

All we know is Tesla China sales have gone down while other OEMs like BYD had no problem selling in December, and Tesla has had to cut prices deeply enough to where margins will be razor thin for 50% of their cars.

It's not surprising the market values Tesla as the weak growing company its proving to be.


Well everyone disagreed with this but provided no real contrary evidence.

Instead, we are seeing that the wait times in China have not increased much in spite off the massive price cuts.

In addition, some are observing that in-store interest in China spiked briefly, but now back to levels from a few weeks ago.


In addition, we are seeing the obvious inventory spikes in the U.S.

At what point will the bullish hypobaric chamber here admit there are serious demand problems?
 
Not after Feb 02, 2023: ('cuz "chips")

Audi stops including heat pumps in Q4 e-tron due to semiconductor supply shortages - Drive Tesla


Owe, doze dam chips... :p
That's pretty crazy. But lol they are still going with the chips shortage.

Also when I wrote all the same due to physics that was on a fundamental basis with differences on how each deal with losses an exception.
 
@Papafox posts TSLA Options Open Interest (OI) in his thread daily. There's a *sugar* ton of CALLs open at the $120 Strike price, no way the MMs are gonna pay those out if they can help it (hint: MMs don't care about CPI, macros, industrial sector, none of that matters a wit if they stand to lose a buck)

View attachment 894895
Watching trading today is fascinating. The SP is ridiculously low IMO with some getting used to it. But I noticed large volumes and attempts to keep the SP down as long as possible but I see a breaking point coming(maybe) and once that breaks a large price increase wouldn't surprise me. With Twitter becoming the most popular Apple download it appears more factual news is shown on Twitter; pity MSM which is offering subscription deals. I'll stay with Twitter and ignore the MSM. Maybe the good guys will win this time.
 
Here we are a dozen days into Q1, historically a slow quarter, and it seems that some want Tesla to react to indicators of increased inventory and sales concerns by lowering prices and other mechanisms, immediately, in order to bolster deliveries. Much hand-wringing over acting NOW appears to be more about reacting over concern rather than about responding with effective execution.

I say hogwash to these concerns being called for so early in the year. There is no pressing motivation to justify Tesla doing anything at this point. In fact, with this being the first few days of the not-yet-resolved IRA introduction into the sales mix it would be premature for them to do anything but wait and see how things progress for at least a month or so. (unless they have already come up with a brilliantly clever plan 🤔)

Speaking of which (i.e: brilliantly clever plans), they have set a date for an Investor Day six or so weeks from now. This seems more in line with an appropriate degree of time at which to respond with a strategy to address their evaluation of how the IRA will best be leveraged in regard to Tesla sales and pricing. (among a plethora of other mindbogglingly stupendous announcements)

Meanwhile, we wait expectantly for that first whiff of the lovely, Singed, Burnt Hair fragrance we have been promised will come in Q1.

This quarter looks to me as if it may not be so Boring after all, and the tink, tink, tink of the hyper-tightened GigaSpring goes on in the background, ready to be released like a Kraken against the fleet of FUD ships basking in the sun on the surface of the water quite unaware of what their siren songs have raised from the depths.

HODL

Bit too early now agree, but march 1st with just 30 days left in quarter might also be a bit too late.
I am sure there are many lessons to be learnt from Q4.


cheers!!