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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I'm not getting this ... Tesla produced 440k vehicles in Q4. Without doing anything Tesla can already produce 1.8M vehicles in a year. So isn't 1.8M units for 2023 a very conservative estimate?
Yes. Musk also said he thinks barring any big disasters they should be able to hit 2m.

Seems pretty clear to me Tesla was lowballing their production estimate to avoid the 4th quarter panic and accusations around hitting targets this year.
 
Just wondering…. with 80 million shares short Tesla. A solid 4th quarter and a decent chance of a positive catalyst in 4.5 weeks.

What are the chances the shorts start bailing out in the next few weeks? Are we going to see an epic short squeeze between now and March 1st or do people think that will take more significant movement?

Cory from the Stock Channel did an entire episode just on Tsla, and drew a V shape recovery a few weeks ago.
 
Yeah, let's all calm down on this issue. From: How Multinational Companies Can Use Cash Repatriation as a Tax Planning Strategy

"If a US company’s China subsidiary distributes earnings to its US parent, the distribution may be subject to withholding tax in China, and taxed as dividend income in the US. Before deciding upon a means of repatriation, companies should determine the tax cost of each method, and any alternatives to mitigate that cost. "

No outright restrictions from China (currently), but there are other possible issues at play. The point being that it is a complex accounting issue that is different for every company depending on their tax posture, in country needs, etc. And by the way, China could impose capital controls anytime it wants to with little notice, so that's a factor too.

So a legit question, complex answer, and no need to get excited about it.
China likes when you move money out actually…. It lowers the price of their currency which makes their products cheaper and more competitive. No chance China blocks companies taking profits out of China.
 
Yeah, let's all calm down on this issue. From: How Multinational Companies Can Use Cash Repatriation as a Tax Planning Strategy

"If a US company’s China subsidiary distributes earnings to its US parent, the distribution may be subject to withholding tax in China, and taxed as dividend income in the US. Before deciding upon a means of repatriation, companies should determine the tax cost of each method, and any alternatives to mitigate that cost. "

No outright restrictions from China (currently), but there are other possible issues at play. The point being that it is a complex accounting issue that is different for every company depending on their tax posture, in country needs, etc. And by the way, China could impose capital controls anytime it wants to with little notice, so that's a factor too.

So a legit question, complex answer, and no need to get excited about it.

No, that's not what I was replying to.

You are, appropriately, showing there may be reasons NOT to bring cash back in (i.e. spend it locally, avoid taxes). I agree with that.

The person in question said unequivocally that Tesla CANNOT move their earning from China out of China. That's 100% false.
 
The segment known as small scale wind (which in the US is desperately trying to rebrand itself as distributed wind) is not even visible as a rounding error.
Most promising on a domestic light industrial scale is some form of solar/wind/heat capture.

There are some good PVT solutions, and some small scale hybrid solar/wind products, but it is largely unexplored territory..

Tesla currently has no end of good product ideas, and it is very likely these areas are not even on the list.

I mentioned them only because what can be done with EVs, Solar, Wind and Batteries far exceeds what we have currently done.
 
Hard to ramp too much without the facilities to do so...
Maybe 4680s are faster ramp than auto Factories. Tesla mentioned that it's large scale logistics to get all the pieces together, and that GigaTexas has one 4680 line operational and 3 more being installed/commissioned. This made me think about how those machines are more like bottling company machines with a ton of moving parts like we see in the videos - Roadrunner was the nickname. So maybe it's the logistics in getting all of them machined and assembled, but it's nothing compared to what's required for a GigaPress birth or the install from foundation on up.

So it's a different kind of factory, maybe Pepsi can help with it, lol. They'll be "popping" up everywhere! 🤣
 
I'm most disappointed that there was no real discussion on the Tesla Semi production plans for 2023.
Why? This discussion was supposed to be about 2022 financials, not discussion of future plans. I'm sure they'll be more discussion of Semi production on March 1. Based on the current situation and the reveal yesterday about the GigaNevada expansion, I'd be surprised to see 50,000 in 23, with major production starting when the new facility is complete (or close to it).
 
It seems to me that the inventory number should be correlated to production. If production increases, the percentage of production left in inventory each quarter should increase as well.

As I recall, they were still filling up boats in Shanghai in December, which is different from previous years. So, some of that inventory would have been on those ships. There were other reports of ships being staged off shore in Europe, waiting for a space on the dock to open up. This would add to the amount of cargo unable to be delivered before quarter end.

Add to this how they are unwinding "The Wave" and inventory would be expected to increase during the transition.

Absolutely. And anyone who listened to today's call, and ALL previous calls, will know that Tesla management doesn't see any demand problems. They re-iterated that demand is strong looking forward as far as they can see. And they have much better visibility into demand than any investor or analyst can hope to have without having access to the dynamic picture painted by Tesla's order books.

I'm saddened that demand worries continue to take center stage in so many investors' minds when that narrative is a construct of the shorts and those who want Tesla to fail. People who buy into the idea that Tesla is developing a demand problem actually further the goals of those who started the unsupported rumors and highlight how misguided they are as investors. Tesla management has been clear as a bell on this issue. There are literally millions of people who aspire to own a Tesla and Tesla continues to sell more each year vs. the last. They have no real competition that is more significant than their own growing production and sales. Tesla's biggest competitor is Tesla and they have plenty of pricing power to manage that threat if needed. The effect of lowering prices just highlights how far everyone else is behind Tesla in the EV space while simultaneously highlighting what a bad value ICE vehicles are.
 
This keeps coming up, and yet no one has been able to provide any evidence that "profit in China has to stay in China". What's your source? Let's get to the root of things here.
It doesn't have to, but there are significant tax implications to repatriating foreign income. I'm not smart enough to know the details, but generally companies avoid doing it as long as possible.
 
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Maybe 4680s are faster ramp than auto Factories. Tesla mentioned that it's large scale logistics to get all the pieces together, and that GigaTexas has one 4680 line operational and 3 more being installed/commissioned. This made me think about how those machines are more like bottling company machines with a ton of moving parts like we see in the videos - Roadrunner was the nickname. So maybe it's the logistics in getting all of them machined and assembled, but it's nothing compared to what's required for a GigaPress birth or the install from foundation on up.

So it's a different kind of factory, maybe Pepsi can help with it, lol. They'll be "popping" up everywhere! 🤣

I think they want to time the 4680 ramps to run ahead of vehicle production ramps because any excess can be diverted to energy products, but car bodies sitting around waiting for battery packs is a bad outcome.

Most interesting to me was the mention of the possible expansion of Nevada to 500 GWh.

Previously I expected multiple 100 GWh 4680 factories at different locations. making the cells in the same factory when they make the vehicles.

But I would now guess that Austin and Sparks are going to be the main north American 4680 factories and they may ship 4680 packs to other factories.

We may find out more on March 1, but perhaps fewer larger cell factories make more sense.