Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[verystandard]

yes.

 

[jerry33]

I've got the impression (perhaps incorrectly) that each new GF, Singapore, Berlin, Austin are to a large extent fresh factory level designs. When they reach the point of needing to open 3 - 4 new factories each year, wouldn't it make sense to standardize the GF design for each new group of factories? Wouldn't that save some time needed to build each group of factories, as well as reduce the ramping time? We now know the amount of time needed to ramp current unique design factories is substantial. If a group of factories were essentially identical, once the first one has gone through it's ramp, wouldn't the time for the identical ones to ramp be less?

No. The goal, as I understand it, is to have cars come out like Hot Wheels cars, so every new GF will be closer to that goal.

 

[Artful Dodger]

100 GWh of new cells, and more Megapacks, all the ducks seem to be lining up for a rapid acceleration of the mission, provided we can get that Lithium duck in line.

Let's be clear: per Elon's comments, there is PLENTY of lithium. the shortage is in refining capacity for Lithium hydroxide (LIOH). That's why Tesla is buiding a new lithium refinery* in Corpus Christie, Texas as we speak.

This is also why Tesla passed up on potentially million$ in tax relief in order to accelerate the county permiting process by a mere 2 weeks. They mean business!

Tesla removes tax relief request for new $375M facility | Spectrum Local News, Austin, TX (Jan 05, 2023)​

Git'er'dun!

This is also how we know that the new* "Die shop" at Giga Texas is not for Direct lithium extraction (DLE) process as suggested by patreons of TX drone pilot Joe Tegtmeyer:

What is the “Die Shop”? Let’s discuss & speculate together! 15 January 2023 Giga Texas Update | Joe Tegtmeyer​

Tesla would not build a separate plant to duplicate the step planned for Corpus Christie. Further, the new building at Giga Texas is way too small to be a lithium refinery.

Simplist answer is that this "Die shop" will make the tools'n'dies needed for the calendaring rollers used right next door at the new Cathode Plant. This instantly solves the issue Drew Baglino reported in Q1 2022 of denting the calendaring rollers when the process is scaled to full-size. They'll brute-force the issue as required in order to...

Git'er'dun!

 

[bobfunn]

I heard that and it makes me pretty curious about what changes they will end up making. Maybe slightly smaller motors and acceleration? My MYLR has more power than I really need, if they could shave $200 - 500 off the price and ship the same vehicle slightly slower they should, particularly if they could noodle a couple more miles of range out of it.

For one example I read Tesla is installing MYLR rear brakes on MYP rears and putting red plastic covers on them.

Tesla Model Y Performance Has Smaller Rear Brake Calipers With Fake Covers

The manufacturer switched suppliers last year, so the rear brakes aren’t Brembo any more, even though they might appear the same.

insideevs.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611943616003600384

 

[Ogre]

For one example I read Tesla is installing MYLR rear brakes on MYP rears and putting red plastic covers on them.

I suggest you find better sources in that case.

 

[MartinAustin]

I suggest you find better sources in that case.

I also saw reports about that. Was it a non-issue?

 

[bobfunn]

I suggest you find better sources in that case.

Sources look good to me, so do the savings. Rear brakes aren't as important as fronts.
But then, I have the older larger brakes on my MYP

 

[MC3OZ]

Let's be clear: per Elon's comments, there is PLENTY of lithium. the shortage is in refining capacity for Lithium hydroxide (LIOH). That's why Tesla is buiding a new lithium refinery* in Corpus Christie, Texas as we speak.

This is also why Tesla passed up on potentially million$ in tax relief in order to accelerate the county permiting process by a mere 2 weeks. They mean business!

Tesla removes tax relief request for new $375M facility | Spectrum Local News, Austin, TX (Jan 05, 2023)​

Git'er'dun!

This is also how we know that the new* "Die shop" at Giga Texas is not for Direct lithium extraction (DLE) process as suggested by patreons of TX drone pilot Joe Tegtmeyer:

What is the “Die Shop”? Let’s discuss & speculate together! 15 January 2023 Giga Texas Update | Joe Tegtmeyer​

Tesla would not build a separate plant to duplicate the step planned for Corpus Christie. Further, the new building at Giga Texas is way too small to be a lithium refinery.

Simplist answer is that this "Die shop" will make the tools'n'dies needed for the calendaring rollers used right next door at the new Cathode Plant. This instantly solves the issue Drew Baglino reported in Q1 2022 of denting the calendaring rollers when the process is scaled to full-size. They'll brute-force the issue as required in order to...

Git'er'dun!

Yep that Lithium refinery is very important.

I don't know what that "Die Shop" building is for, but making Dies is a reasonable guess.

It is either making something heavy or hitting an object with a lot of force, perhaps both.

A big roller would fit the description of "something heavy".

My guess is that that the Cathode plant is on the critical path for the 2023 Austin 4680 ramp, but the Lithium refinery isn't.

That means that for 2023 the Lithium is probably coming from somewhere else.

For 2024 to be a big year for 4680 production might need the Lithium refinery?

1% chance that "Die Shop" is part of a temporary work around just to have enough Lithium for 2023/2024? Hard to imagine that they would do this unless the building had a long term role, probably cheaper to just pay more for Lithium 2023/2024.

 

[WADan]

I feel (bad)
I have a friend who put his entire IRA into F, GM, and Toyoda....
I warned him.
I told him I knew Elon, I mean @ZeApelido ... and he was making a mistake.
He said F Elon... he isn’t watching the assembly line. He is too busy making babies .

I even gave him @Gigapress cell phone # to get the real facts... /s. didn't work.

Guess you can't fix stupid ...

You should have me as a friend instead. I have my entire ROTH in TSLA, with the latest backdoor conversion happened in the last few weeks!

 

[SebastienBonny]

I feel the people who short Tesla are like my friends who doubt the idea of buying an EV / Tesla. Or become "hangry" whenever I have to supercharge on road trips if we take the Tesla because people who drive gas cars will become infuriated that a Tesla cannot get back on the road as fast as a gas car. Even if you tell them they should eat food while they charge, they may not accept the idea because they only want In n Out and won't settle for Carls Jr. Even though I tell them supercharging low cost is like getting free food.

Gas car enthusiasts keep saying that they don't like the idea of charging because it's slow. This is the only thing holding EV adoption back is these people who keep doubting EVs due to their slow refueling time. I am hoping one day we have higher capacity battery or faster charging time to the point the most reluctant gas owner will give in and get an EV.

I know not everyone can charge at home, but they certainly don’t have a gas pump there.

 

[jw934]

According to Joe, this past month gave the 5th largest upward move in the past 3 years.


”I averaged 1 / 2 / 3 and 4 week returns for $TSLA to create a sort of momentum indicator. Values extrapolated to monthly % returns. This recent move is the largest % gain since 4 large moves in 2020.”

source tweet

 

[CorneliusXX]

No. The goal, as I understand it, is to have cars come out like Hot Wheels cars, so every new GF will be closer to that goal.

Agree, and most of the increase in vehicle numbers are likely to be smaller vehicles lower down the price range. Presumably each new factory for these super high volume vehicles will be designed to produce far more vehicles per year than Shanghai or Texas; I doubt they will need to have more than 1-2 per continent.

 

[Dreadnought]

By the way, I found it interesting that it wasn’t Elon saying the cars have too much power and we could scale it back for cost reduction. It was Drew and he said it by referencing detailed data they had, almost as if they had to convince someone else in the room who historically has always pushed for more power and faster cars. Maybe I’m reading too much into this, but it sure seemed to me like Drew was taking a data driven product management approach to vehicle design rather than what has happened in the past, which was that Elon heavily influenced design decisions. To me, it sounded like a baton was being passed at that moment.

Now that I re-read the quote, Drew might not have been talking about vehicle power, but instead saying they could build the same powertrain with cheaper components. Well, I guess we’ll see.

I think he didn't have too much power in his mind when he said "performance". Rather that some parts are built sturdier than needed. Overdimemensioned gears, suspension and the like. Potentially resulting weight reduction, which in turn increases performance of the entire car, is an added bonus.

Here's what Drew said per Motley Fool's transcript:

So over the course of 2023, on the powertrain side, we're actually going to go after sort of some materials where we're paying for more performance than we need or we have more content than we need without impacting reliability at all.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hi folks,

By now, everyone has heard about Project "Highland", and speculation continues about this choice of name. One popular theory (ie: AJ/MS note) is that "Highland" is a hat tip to Ford's plant in Highland Park, MI (a suburb of Detroit). This small city actually has less total land area than Giga Texas at Austin, TX.

Name:​	Area:
• City of Highland Park, MI​	3.0 sq mi (7.7 km2)​
• Giga Texas campus, TX​	3.3 sq mi (8.5 km2)​

The lot itself for Ford's Model T Assembly Plant in Highland Park, which was purchased in 1907, is just 160 acres (a quarter-section). By comparison, the Main Assembly Building at Giga Texas is 229 acres, while the entire site is more than 13 quarter sections, purchased in 2020 and announced on the Q2-2020 Conf. call.

I submit for your consideration that Project "Highland" possibly refers to a long-term site plan for Giga Texas (~10-year time frame), rather than just a new way to build a mid-size sedan. We may find out on March 1st, 2023 (at Giga Texas, or course!). #Predict

Kind regards,
Lodger

 

[unk45]

By the way, I found it interesting that it wasn’t Elon saying the cars have too much power and we could scale it back for cost reduction. ...data driven product management approach to vehicle design rather than what has happened in the past, which was that Elon heavily influenced design decisions. To me, it sounded like a baton was being passed at that moment.

Now that I re-read the quote, Drew might not have been talking about vehicle power, but instead saying they could build the same powertrain with cheaper components. Well, I guess we’ll see.

I think you completely misunderstood Drew's point. He was talking about over engineered parts that could be optimized now that they're si operating history. It has nothing to do with 'vehicle design' and everything to do with reducing weight, complexity and unneeded mass.
As several people have noted that si a common aerospace approach, and is common in other industrial cases also.This is a virtuous process and is unrelated to decontenting. It is also not exactly "cheaper components" although that is the net result fo Gigacasting, Octovalve and elimination of unneeded fasteners, welding and so many other things.

In short this is a 2020's version of Deming's continuous improvement, but with reams of data helping make these decisions. This also connects nicely with vehicle modifications to reduce collision repair costs. Those all lead to a virtuous cycle.

IT's wise not to oversimplify all this because warranty costs, breakage, assembly costs, weight, reliability and reduced rework all have positive impacts from their approach. All this cannot eb described briefly but...
1. we see it in an unprecedented cash conversion cycle. Has any fast growing company before had a positive cash conversion cycle?;
2. We see it in reduced per vehicle warranty charges every reporting period;
3. We see it in industry leading energy efficiency;
4. Finally we see the net effects in steadily having industry leading Gross Margins.

Each of those has multiple causes, not just continuing product part cost reductions. That process that Drew mentioned is part of the overall Tesla process, just one that is not commonly considered.

This is another reason to HODL Almost no analysts can understand such seemingly throwaway points, so they ignore yet another major Tesla advantage. Oddly, Tesla makes no secrets about the approach, but competitors mostly have no clue how to do it.

Perhaps bizarrely, Toyota is one that very well might be able to do this with BEV's since they've been doing parts of it for many decades. I am not saying they will, but that it is a distinct possibility.

 

[unk45]

No. The goal, as I understand it, is to have cars come out like Hot Wheels cars, so every new GF will be closer to that goal.

I cannot find the quotation right now although I remember Elon saying that the Mattel car building process inspired him to dream to what became Gigapress. I recall that he had similar comments about Cybertruck at the reveal.

There is no question that on March 1 we'll hear more about increasing construction simplify with consequent cost reductions. There topics are well covered in various technical threads here and elsewhere. The deeper the accounting story becomes evident the more we need to understand the Cash Conversion Cycle that @The Accountant keeps explaining.

If there is a single metric of merit that becomes mind boggling is it the hours required to build a single car. In 2021 Herbert Diess was quoted thusly:
"Diess repeatedly stresses the gap in efficiency between the two companies. He points out that while Tesla aims to assemble a car in 10 hours at its new plant, workers in Volkswagen's factory in Zwickau take three times as long to produce an electric ID. 3 or ID." Nov 29, 2021 New York Times

The most recent mention I could find suggests that in GF Shanghai that number is now about 8 hours, but is steadily dropping.

Just think about that.
Here is what VW says about that plant:
"The Group’s largest and most efficient electric vehicle plant in Europe is located in Zwickau"

Zwickau

The Volkswagen Newsroom is a service of Volkswagen AG for journalists, bloggers, and multipliers. It offers the latest news for press and media.

www.volkswagen-newsroom.com

There is much more detailed analysis available. The major additional point is that Tesla plants are very vertically integrated while VW is pendent out outside suppliers for most major components, including large sub assembly.

 

[Max Plaid]

This is not been my experience at all. Their proprietary approach to service has only caused delays and incompetence. They are finally coming next week, allegedly, because it usually gets pushed to fix my passenger restraint system. The price has gone up $20 since last fall when they didn’t have the parts.

This is the service appointment for my girlfriends Tesla, to come and flip the cabin view camera. It’s amazing that this was not caught during Tesla’s QA. We did not know till the new in cabin view was available on the app. I’m sure it didn’t affect the safety score.

A normal person would try to schedule both service visits at the same time. Since they are coming to the same house twice in a week. Not sure how I can do this with Tesla.



View attachment 899961
View attachment 899962

Press on the button at the bottom of the screen to send a message to service and ask if they can combine the appointments

 

[Max Plaid]

Anecdotal, but we're having a slightly painful delivery process with my wife's new MYLR, going very slow. I was at Tesla yesterday (for getting winter wheels fitted to my MXP) and I spoke to the sales guy. He said they're totally overwhelmed with interest and orders since the price-cuts

 

[JRP3]

I don’t always agree with this poster, but do share this sentiment…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619068031782760450

I somewhat agree and took some profits again yesterday. Hopefully I'll never get the chance to buy them back at a lower price.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I cannot find the quotation right now although I remember Elon saying that the Mattel car building process inspired him to dream to what became Gigapress. I recall that he had similar comments about Cybertruck at the reveal.

Here's a recent comment by Elon: (though not the 1st time he talked about casting cars)

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@RationalEtienne @OwenSparks_ @Tesla With our giant casting machines, we are literally trying to make full-size cars in the same way that toy cars are made" / Twitter | Jan 18, 2021​

And here's a slightly older Industry discussion of Tesla's gigacasting technology:

Tesla production to take a giant leap after obtaining the patent for a 'Unibody Casting Machine' | Xautoworld.com (Jul 23, 2019)​

Cheers!