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I guess the price cuts caused a demand problem, too much demand. 🤣 I wonder if this increase will be enough or if they will have to raise pieces more...

Looks like a 2 months backlog so far. This price increase will likely make people on the fence jump in anticipation of further price increases, in turn making Tesla raise prices further. I don’t think we’ll see 66k starting price again but 58-60 is plausible. There is just no competition to worry about.
 
Me early today ruminating about the changes to the IRS ruling.
I think as 4680 Model Y production keeps increasing, Tesla will slowly creep the Model Y LR prices back up. Those 4680 Model Ys are in theory Tesla’s biggest money maker so Tesla is going to want that to be the bigger demand driver. Now that the goofy $55k limit is lifted, Tesla has a bit more flexibility on pricing the LR.
Just a few hours later…
And … the price hikes have resumed. Model Y now starts at 55k. Was 53k just a couple of weeks ago.

And lo and behold… Model Y AWD inventory is still priced at $52,990.

1675482673993.png


Also, seems like the supply of 4680 Model Ys is quite strong right now. Not seeing any here in Oregon, but they are all over California. Seems like a good indication 4680 supply is starting to really click!
 
I guess the price cuts caused a demand problem, too much demand. 🤣 I wonder if this increase will be enough or if they will have to raise pieces more...
I don't know if it's strictly demand, but also potential increases in COGS. Remember Zach said in the last call that they wanted to concentrate on margins and if Tesla's costs went up, the price would have to increase to at least maintain the current margin.
 
Me early today ruminating about the changes to the IRS ruling.

Just a few hours later…


And lo and behold… Model Y AWD inventory is still priced at $52,990.

View attachment 903084

Also, seems like the supply of 4680 Model Ys is quite strong right now. Not seeing any here in Oregon, but they are all over California. Seems like a good indication 4680 supply is starting to really click!

Now that I think more about what you said, it’s so obvious. 4680 Model Y is the demand driver and the future of the model. It’s going to be available for custom order once the battery production is ramped up. The 2170 Model Y will need to be more expensive for consumers to pay attention to the 4680 version. In the long run the 4680 will likely be even cheaper while the 2170 gets slightly more expensive so the 4680 can be slowly phased out. Brilliant demand control.
 
Now that I think more about what you said, it’s so obvious. 4680 Model Y is the demand driver and the future of the model. It’s going to be available for custom order once the battery production is ramped up. The 2170 Model Y will need to be more expensive for consumers to pay attention to the 4680 version. In the long run the 4680 will likely be even cheaper while the 2170 gets slightly more expensive so the 4680 can be slowly phased out. Brilliant demand control.
Hopefully production of the 4680s gets strong enough they can add it into the menu instead of doing the inventory drop thing they are doing now.

The Model 3 price cut is interesting. It’s the model that uses a different kind of battery. Confirms where the supply bottleneck is.

LFP prices are coming down. Also demand on the 3 has been a little soft. This tweet is talking about Megapacks, but likely applies to vehicle cells as well. Some of the key LFP patents expired which should open up more competition in that space and allow producers to move LFP production to the US (and perhaps to Tesla). LFP prices should continue coming down as more companies come into this market.

 
Now that I think more about what you said, it’s so obvious. 4680 Model Y is the demand driver and the future of the model. It’s going to be available for custom order once the battery production is ramped up. The 2170 Model Y will need to be more expensive for consumers to pay attention to the 4680 version. In the long run the 4680 will likely be even cheaper while the 2170 gets slightly more expensive so the 4680 can be slowly phased out. Brilliant demand control.

I disagree. They made some 4680 MYAWD's to prove in the new technology when it couldn't hit the range number and simply be a MYLR replacement.

Next use of 4680 goes to CyberTruck later this year. There is no reason to divert the limited supply of 4680's into custom-ordered MY's until they have more batteries than the CyberTruck and eventually the Semi can consume, which looks like 2024 at the soonest.

Tesla wants to simplify and cost-reduce production. Doing a subset of 4680 custom ordered MYLR's or MYAWD's is harder, not easier
 
Can't they make more than one unit at a time? Think assembly line. Just cause it takes 68 minutes to build a single unit doesn't mean it's their actual rate or throughput does it?
If it's one assembly line then yes that is the rate or throughput. They can't make one faster than the fastest unit on one line. That's the definition of "fastest". Yes you make more than one at a time but the slowest produciton on a line slows down any behind it.

If it's 2 or more assembly lines then they could have one line do it in 68 minutes and another doing it at the same rate or a slower rate and still have a faster total throughput for the factory.
 
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You know, the video doesn't say one Megapack 2XL every 68 minutes, it says Megapack. Are they still make Megapacks as well? I agree with your computations, but I think they're referring just about the MegaFactory (at least that's what the video says). So something doesn't make sense... are they making 7,700 Megapacks and 2,300 2XL's at the MegaFactory perhaps?
No, there is only one choice of Megapack on the website. There aren't multiple sized to choose from, all current orders are for the newest product.

 
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LFP prices are coming down. Also demand on the 3 has been a little soft. This tweet is talking about Megapacks, but likely applies to vehicle cells as well. Some of the key LFP patents expired which should open up more competition in that space and allow producers to move LFP production to the US (and perhaps to Tesla). LFP prices should continue coming down as more companies come into this market.

Tesla is most likely ordering 100K-ish cells at a time directly from CATL to maximize shipping costs.

since when has maximizing shipping costs for a customer been a goal that someone tries to achieve?
 
Model 3 RWD is now $35,990 after the tax credit.

Also!!! View attachment 903092 :p:p

Average transaction price for vehicles in the USA is what, $46,000?
Wow…. That’s amazeballs.

When I get our Cybertruck I hope they still have this on tap. Then I can trade in the Model Y and lease a Model 3 so I’m not on the hook for 2 payments at a time.

Actually maybe Highland and/ or the next Gen platform is online by then. Hmm