Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SageBrush]

They saw it was just another attack by short-sellers and those who wanted Tesla to fail.

That is way too simplistic. Day trading speculator bought on the tweet, and lost money when the deal collapsed and they sold. <<<shrug>>>

I personally also bought on the tweet. The only difference between me and the aggrieved speculators was that I held on to the stock.

 

[insaneoctane]

Lithium price:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621440011508801536

Hasn't gas/oil had a higher % increase over the same period?

 

[SageBrush]

Some simple 'rithmetic ...

Say Tesla gains $3,000 per car by not being hobbled by the $55k price limit
1.5E6 such cars in 2023 = $4.5E9 extra annual profit

3B shares means $1.5 extra profit per year*share
At P:E of 20:1 that adds $30 to share price
At P:E of 50:1 that adds $75 to share price

 

[wipster]

Hmmm... Which do you prefer?

View attachment 903094View attachment 903095

Even with color Blue, white interior, and 19" sport wheels the lease payment is only $386/month. That's less then the basic 3 just yesterday.

 

[SageBrush]

Even with color Blue, white interior, and 19" sport wheels the lease payment is only $386/month. That's less then the basic 3 just yesterday.

Note the $1,500 difference in day #1 payment, so call it another $40 a month

 

[wipster]

Note the $1,500 difference in day #1 payment, so call it another $40 a month

Wasn't the down $4,500 before or are you referring to something else?

 

[SageBrush]

Wasn't the down $4,500 before or are you referring to something else?

Yes, while the Toyota is $3,000.

$1,500 difference, that if spread over 35 payments is another ~ $40 in monthly payment for a fairer comparison. I think the Tesla is an attractive lease compared to the Toyota, I was just pointing out that only looking at the monthly payment ignored the difference in day #1 costs.

Tesla also has a $600 'lease acquisition' fee. I don't know if the same is true for Toyota.

And perhaps most importantly, Tesla does not have a buyout option. I considered a Tesla lease recently for about two minutes, until I realized that I would pay over 50% of the new car price for 3 years of use. That is easily double what I have ended up paying for cars that I buy upfront.

 

[lafrisbee]

Wait? Since the Tesla vehicle prices have increased, will all the people that bought before the price drop that whined they paid more than that re-submit their request for a reduced refund due to the new, higher price?

 

[Electroman]

I do find it funny that his lawyers also said essentially "People don't believe everything Musk says" as a defense. "Your honor, my client can't be guilty, he has no credibility!"

I find this comment so true and also equally un-true.

In the Twitter world, yes his comments should not be taken too literally. . But then on the same token if there is one person in this world who has the credibility and the undisputed power to make any elected leader of a nation, a King, a despot, or a CEO stop, listen and take notice with just 120 characters in a matter of minutes, that is Musk. What a guy !

 

[wipster]

Yes, while the Toyota is $3,000.

$1,500 difference, that if spread over 35 payments is another ~ $40 in monthly payment for a fairer comparison. I think the Tesla is an attractive lease compared to the Toyota, I was just pointing out that only looking at the monthly payment ignored the difference in day #1 costs.

Tesla also has a $600 'lease acquisition' fee. I don't know if the same is true for Toyota

Didn't realize you were talking about the Toy... worth if you ask me!

 

[MC3OZ]

I disagree. They made some 4680 MYAWD's to prove in the new technology when it couldn't hit the range number and simply be a MYLR replacement.

Next use of 4680 goes to CyberTruck later this year. There is no reason to divert the limited supply of 4680's into custom-ordered MY's until they have more batteries than the CyberTruck and eventually the Semi can consume, which looks like 2024 at the soonest.

Tesla wants to simplify and cost-reduce production. Doing a subset of 4680 custom ordered MYLR's or MYAWD's is harder, not easier

They made 4680 Ys to prove that they can make them and to replace 2170s which will perhaps be allocated to the Semi.

They knew in advance what the range would be, one test pack in 1 test car tells them that.

These are simply v1 cells followed by v2, v3, v4...., vn

 

[Chenkers]

I hadn't seen this posted here yet. In addition to the 66k China January wholesale numbers, Tesla China has now reached the milestone of having sold 1 Million cars in China.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621472301110775808

 

[SageBrush]

I do find it funny that his lawyers also said essentially

Your interpretation, dressed up with "essentially" to make it sound more than it is.

Musk tweeted based on a verbal agreement and a handshake with the Governor of the Saudi PIF. If the media had got wind of that and published a 'scoop,' there would have been a feeding frenzy by the day traders.

Heck, just news of Musk talking with the Gov of the Saudi PIF for 45 minutes would have set off a stock buying frenzy.

I'm not sure of Musk's motivations, but every other company would have just leaked the news. So if Musk is guilty of anything, it is clumsiness.

 

[Ogre]

Yes, while the Toyota is $3,000.

$1,500 difference spread over 35 payments

If you equalize the down payments it looks like this.

 

[Ogre]

Your interpretation, dressed up with "essentially" to make it sound more than it is.

Musk tweeted based on a verbal agreement and a handshake with the Governor of the Saudi PIF. If the media had got wind of that and published a 'scoop,' there would have been a feeding frenzy by the day traders.

Heck, just news of Musk talking with the Gov of the Saudi PIF for 45 minutes would have set off a stock buying frenzy.

I'm not sure of Musk's motivations, but every other company would have just leaked the news. So if Musk is guilty of anything, it is clumsiness.

I was paraphrasing the article which said his lawyers argued “not everyone believes what he posts”.

My comments were clearly not said in a serious tone and not meant to imply any specificity. Just laughing at the idea that Musk’s own lawyers would argue that many people don’t believe what Musk says.

 

[Ogre]

I find this comment so true and also equally un-true.

In the Twitter world, yes his comments should not be taken too literally. . But then on the same token if there is one person in this world who has the credibility and the undisputed power to make any elected leader of a nation, a King, a despot, or a CEO stop, listen and take notice with just 120 characters in a matter of minutes, that is Musk. What a guy !

As I said above, I was attempting to make light of something his lawyers argued (according to the article).

Totally agree that Musk‘s Twitter account is a powerful force.

 

[SageBrush]

Just laughing at the idea that Musk’s own lawyers

Don't you know the age old lawyer arguments ?
"He didn't say it."
"And if he did say it, he meant something else."

That is just standard lawyer fare.

Now, if you want to read truly preposterous lawyer rhetoric, try the Trump cases. But beware, you will have to take a LONG shower afterwards.

 

[SageBrush]

Lithium price:

 

[SageBrush]

I'm not sure of Musk's motivations, but every other company would have just leaked the news. So if Musk is guilty of anything, it is clumsiness.

By the way, IIRC that bit of history the deal was broken by Musk because the retail investors of LONG variety wanted TSLA to remain public and there was a general outcry against the notion of the Saudis owning such an important US company . So far as I know, the Saudi PIF would have gone through with the deal.

So in point of fact, the buyout money was secured.

I read that it took the jury two hours to reach a verdict. Two seconds should have been enough.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

They made 4680 Ys to prove that they can make them and to replace 2170s which will perhaps be allocated to the Semi.

They knew in advance what the range would be, one test pack in 1 test car tells them that.

These are simply v1 cells followed by v2, v3, v4...., vn

Kinda, but not quite. They planned to have Giga Texas go directly to making MYLR's with 4680 and never make 2170 based vehicles there. They had a 2170 design as a fallback if the 4680 battery did not converge. It didn't. But they wanted field experience on the new cells and pack despite it not yet reaching full MYLR range. So they invented the very awkwardly named "MYAWD" with less range, declared victory on "shipping" a 4680 vehicle and mostly sold them to employees plus a few as inventory cars. They then converted Giga Texas to make 2170 Model Y's (the fallback plan) and continued working on the 4680 cells (as you say v2, v3, whatever) because the Cyber Truck has to have them.

Current 4680 capacity is around 1/3rd of what would be needed simply to handle all the US MYLR cars. It's not close, even without the CT eating them up. And it makes NO sense to be having people randomly ordering a different battery in the MYLR - Tesla's passion is FEWER choices so the production and supply chain can be optimized.