Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Remus]

Anyone who has the patience to call TSLA customer service and hang in there for a couple of hrs, might just be able to order the SR.

TSLA shouldn't have given this option at all, should just have stated that they kept promise on initial stmt, and that it was no longer available.

Put on my Tesla customers hat. I will absolutely try to order a couple of $35k model 3 for my kids and send them to college when time comes. They can get the upgrade money if they do well in school.

 

[Subhuman]

I will say that my greatest disappointment in Tesla right this minute is their apparent inability to handle a lot of options on the production line. We've seen signs of this from day one of Model S production. I realize that it's an issue for all car manufacturers, but I hoped they'd be able to use information technology to more smoothly integrate different variants. Apparently not really.

I think the streamlined approach has more to do with reducing the overall cost of the product being produced. Think Henry Ford "You can have any color as long as it is black". While Tesla has definitely had some bumps in the road from a production perspective I don't believe they are the sole reason for cutting options.

 

[Tenable]

My advice too you,

stop following the day to day activity of Tesla.

Anyone invested knows it a long term hold anyway. Check in every quarter or so and see how it's doing.

By following the day to day all your going to get is noise and dissecting of every single minor detail, article, or blog post anyway, which really isn't helpful in anyway.

So either

1.) Sell your TSLA
2.) Step away and and check back in 3-4 months.

Grim, I very much appreciate your kind sentiment. Unfortunately, I believe my concerns are not based on the usual FUD/noise that we are so sadly accustomed to. I'm debating selling for the first time, I am so emotionally invested in this company.. its not an easy task for me.

 

[elasalle]

Put on my Tesla customers hat. I will absolutely try to order a couple of $35k model 3 for my kids and send them to college when time comes. They can get the upgrade money if they do well in school.

When your kids go to college ask them if they have an extra 3K, if so ask them to chip in for AP/FSD upgrade

But all the best, hope all do get the SR.

 

[aznt1217]

Grim, I very much appreciate your kind sentiment. Unfortunately, I believe my concerns are not based on the usual FUD/noise that we are so sadly accustomed to. I'm debating selling for the first time, I am so emotionally invested in this company.. its not an easy task for me.

Then this isn't the stock for you. It's just investing 101 - your level of risk aversion doesn't match the amount you have in the stock which is causing your dissonance. Trim your position down if you can't take it.

OR

Do you own analysis holistically and not just based on the news and see if it makes sense. When I say holistically-- I mean don't just focus on Tesla fighting against itself. Go to a car dealership look at the car and then analyze the competition. You will quickly conclude Model S/X no refresh/refresh doesn't need a refresh because many other manufacturers are charging more for re-skinned junk. We here at TMC are in our own bubble and follow the cars too much to the point it works against us.

 

[shootformoon]

tesla should only honor $35k m3 to reservation holders. That kept the promise and warms the first adopters' heart.

 

[Nocturnal]

I will say that my greatest disappointment in Tesla right this minute is their apparent inability to handle a lot of options on the production line. We've seen signs of this from day one of Model S production. I realize that it's an issue for all car manufacturers, but I hoped they'd be able to use information technology to more smoothly integrate different variants. Apparently not really.

Is that an inability or just choosing not to? Other makers would be happy to limit options if they thought they could. That's one of the main reasons that packages exist.

 

[M3Rider]

If you think Tesla is offering leasing when demand is NOT an issue, you are kidding yourself.

I am sure that demand(for SR+) is not an issue.

Tesla will get these lease cars back practically for free and then use them for ride sharing. I can believe that it is their plan and they currently believe it can happen - full autonomy in 3 years.
I can see how they justify leasing for these purposes.

Can this happen? Personally, I feel this is overly optimistic. We know "feature complete" is planned for this EOY and then "march of 9s" starts until they have data to show to regulators that accident rates are much better than with human drivers...This gives them ~1.5 years to get to that level and maybe another 6mo to get the approval.

1.5 years to work out the bugs and kinks seems incredibly optimistic to me...but I don't see it as they are making a bad faith statement...more like an Elon time statement.

If it doesn't work out in 3 years, they'll just turn around and sell those cars, not a big deal.

I don't see a demand issue stemming from the leasing action...April 22 is surely going to be interesting. Seems they will make some bold predictions (that will need adjusted for Elon time).

 

[bdy0627]

Elon podcast on AP with Fridman

Wow! Thanks for linking that interview. It was probably the best interview I have seen with Elon. Lots of great details and insights about the self-driving technology. Interviewer: "You're confident with Tesla you can create the world's best autonomous driving system?" Elon: "Yes. To me, right now, this seems game, set, and match. I don't want to sound overconfident, but that's literally how it appears right now."

 

[Tenable]

Is that an inability or just choosing not to? Other makers would be happy to limit options if they thought they could. That's one of the main reasons that packages exist.

Everything points to an inability. While providing as much value as possible is an ideal. Tesla throwing in things like the glass roof on the base M3 when that feature would almost certainly make some buyers consider an upgrade seems indicative. Also, not offering options such as the premium cream interior on performance models, but offering it non non performance models. Tesla is still a very young resource constrained company. They do the best they can, but they have limitations. These things are a hindrance, but minor in the grand scheme of things as long as they continue to provide massive value in other areas.

 

[Prunesquallor]

That could be an explanation for the EU. I doubt it but it could very well be the case.

Do we have any projected numbers for what for what the FCA pays, virtually, for every Tesla sold in the EU?

Each EV should be worth ~€10,000 in FCA fine reduction. I don’t think we have any idea what Tesla's bounty would be, but the range people are speculating is €3000-€7000. It would take a large number of EVs (~250,000/yr) to get FCA into compliance.

 

[Sancho]

I’m addicted to reading this board, and like any addiction, that’s not a good thing.

The nature of any communication medium operating continuously 24/7 is that every little detail will be magnified out of all proportion.

But I can’t disengage, because Tesla itself is in such an adolescent phase of development that things change in material ways almost daily, and this board keeps me current.

Some of us are trolls, some of us are blindly cheerleading, some of us are fools. But most postings here are very informative.

Pay attention to what makes sense. Try to ignore the rest. Try not to jump to conclusions based on insufficient information.

 

[TradingInvest]

In my view, most things (technology/engineering/products) Elon Musk said will happen end up happened. In today's interview, it seems Elon is quite confident Tesla's autonomous driving is vastly more advanced than the competitors'. He is confident Tesla's autonomous driving is coming. What if he is right?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Grim, I very much appreciate your kind sentiment. Unfortunately, I believe my concerns are not based on the usual FUD/noise that we are so sadly accustomed to. I'm debating selling for the first time, I am so emotionally invested in this company.. its not an easy task for me.

I'm curious, why don't you hedge via options as opposed to selling a portion of your position?

 

[RobStark]

The word on the street is that the LR RWD is also off-menu available in NL/Belgium for €53,000 (-€5,300 compared to AWD or +€5,200 to SR+).

 

[Doggydogworld]

How viable is leasing the Model 3 for Tesla? They only have $1b currently available on the warehouse line. That amount would also need to be shared with Model S/X lease financing. We should see an amendment to that contract soon if that is how the plan to finance. $1b in financing is still only ~33,000 cars at $30,000 cost to manufacture. Tesla is asking for a decent amount of cash upfront so that will provide some flexibility but it really isn't many vehicles unless they up size the warehouse line significantly. They can always bundle the leases and sell them as ABL securities but the last ABL deal didn't have as favorable terms as ones Tesla has done in the past.

Does Tesla have a leasing partner for the model 3? That is my biggest question, unknown at this point. All of the rapid price flux would make it very difficult for a partner to have a residual value calculation that they could place a modicum of faith in.

Their leasing model definitely requires securitizations. The Warehouse lines are just temporary holding facilities (i.e. warehouses) until Tesla accumulates enough leases for a securitization.

They may have attracted a 3rd party leasing company to carry some of the leases. Or they may just figure by the time they're ready for another ABS deal in ~6 months there will be enough Model 3 residual data to reassure investors.

 

[Nocturnal]

Wow! Thanks for linking that interview. It was probably the best interview I have seen with Elon. Lots of great details and insights about the self-driving technology. Interviewer: "You're confident with Tesla you can create the world's best autonomous driving system?" Elon: "Yes. To me, right now, this seems game, set, and match. I don't want to sound overconfident, but that's literally how it appears right now."

Agreed. Very, very good.

 

[Tenable]

I'm curious, why don't you hedge via options as opposed to selling a portion of your position?

Cherry, I've never taken the kind of losses percentage wise on any other company that I have with TSLA, usually because I usually have some level of hedging via puts. I've spoken at length to several friends that work at funds (I know not popular here) and every one of them told me that their largest losses were on positions they had the most conviction in. Recently I repositioned myself more conservatively on Tesla by reducing leverage. However, I have to admit that I'm in that unfortunate place now where emotion has bled into logic. After being long TSLA for several years and weathering many storms, I'm not sure I trust my own decision making and thought process where this company is concerned.

The shorter answer is I have a hard time imagining Tesla going much lower. But if I'm being honest, I never imagined TSLA being under $270 today with M3 rolled out along with a fantastic product road map underway. I also never imagined Tesla would be producing less than 5k cars last Q and that we'd be slashing prices. I'm humbled, dazed and confused.

 

[Remus]

Yeah, I kinda agree. Moral and sympathy are not part of the economic equation.

However, I believe there's one massive difference between Tesla and all the examples you've listed above:

I'd say it was mostly ordinary people who hated MS, FB, Apple, AT&T, Exxon and co. They wanted to see them trip and fall, but they didn't – most likely because the Street stood firmly behind them.

With Tesla it's – for whatever reason – the media, Street and other powerful entities who want to bring it down. Completely different dynamics at play IMO.

Absolutely not Microsoft. Nobody stood behind Microsoft. The wintel empire was painted evil for most of the time as they raked in money.

 

[bdy0627]

Also, why the **** is cream available in standard models but not performance??! On what planet does it make sense to give fewer options to your most premium buyers.

The other thing that seems strikingly odd is that Autopilot comes automatically with the model 3, including the $39,500 SR+, but it's $3k extra for the $85k model S and the $89,500 model X. They really seem to be pushing people toward the 3 with pricing right now.