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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Tesla sold about 60,000 model S/X last year in North America. That is an ATH. It’s even more impressive when you consider that it was all long range and performance models. At $30k average gross profit, that is $1.8 billion of gross profit most of which flows straight to the bottom line. There is no reason Tesla can not achieve ATHs in S/X sales in China as well. Europe may be a little more difficult.
S/X are not just a money printing machine. They are what cement Tesla as a premium brand. Non-premium brands do not sell sedans and SUVs that start at $90k. VW or Volvo could not do that. VW introduced a $70k sedan called the Phaeton in the early 2000s and it was a disaster. Tesla has the brand cachet to move cars in that price range and it should absolutely do it.
S/X are not just a money printing machine. They are what cement Tesla as a premium brand. Non-premium brands do not sell sedans and SUVs that start at $90k. VW or Volvo could not do that. VW introduced a $70k sedan called the Phaeton in the early 2000s and it was a disaster. Tesla has the brand cachet to move cars in that price range and it should absolutely do it.
I've an interesting story on Supercharger buildout, Cybertruck and GigaTexas.
Started driving Uber earlier this week because our Airbnb guests in Sedona, AZ, have been more frequently requesting the service. Being an isolated, expensive little enclave with minimal public transportation infrastructure and, from what I hear, poor ride-share reliability, I figured I'd at least offer Uber rides to our guests upon request for a better customer experience when I'm at the property. Plus, maybe I'll sell a Tesla or two in the process.
So I picked up a gentleman at his hotel yesterday here in Flagstaff, AZ, (I spend most of my time at our place in Flagstaff) to deliver him to the airport. He greeted me with a big smile, cheerfully saying how happy he was to see a Tesla Uber. Explained to me he's been an employee of Tesla since 2016, started in sales/delivery, but now works in the Supercharger division. He was in town for a Tesla Supercharger conference with about 30 other attendees (why they were in Flagstaff of all places I've no idea, but the ride was only 10 minutes and I wanted him to keep talking). He said the conference was a planning committee on how to "double" (yes he said double) Supercharger capacity in the next 18 months or so. I didn't ask him to clarify whether he meant just the lower 48 states of the U.S. or the world or what, but he said with how many Teslas Tesla has been selling, they need to expand the Supercharger network and fast. Seems impossible to me, but I'm just reporting what he said.
Two weeks ago he was at GigaTexas. Said 50% of the factory is dedicated to Cybertruck production. That's what he said so I'm reporting it here. He also said (and I was able to confirm this here; you'll see cool images of the pre-built charging stalls) a new 20 stall Supercharger site was likely to come online here in Flagstaff today (2/10/22), the final driveway concrete was poured yesterday, with a pull-through for Cybertrucks towing trailers! I've never seen a Supercharger site with pull-throughs for trailers. Does this also mean there is a Megacharger at this site?? Can Cybertruck use a Supercharger as well as a Megacharger? I will try to get over there today to check it out and report back.
Finally, as he was getting out, he said Tesla's got a lot on its plate, but "We feel like 2023 is going to be the big year for Tesla." Again, who knows what that means exactly, but as a Tesla bull I interpret that statement with happy green dollar signs in my cartoon eyeballs. I'm really biased here and want to see the SP at +$420 ASAP. Hope springs eternal...
Also, the guy looked healthy, happy, well-rested and fit. That is important to me as an investor. I like to see happy, healthy employees because most of the time that translates into productive, loyal employees. Just further bolsters my investment thesis. If the guy was all gloomy, depressed and fat, that would bother me a bit--yeah yeah, one data point, I know, but still, it matters, no matter how insignificant the point. I feel like most of the Tesla employees I interact with seem relatively healthy, happy and well-rested. You can tell when people aren't. Healthy happy people are productive people, whatever they end up doing in life.
Sadly, this post leaves us with way more questions than answers, but I figured I'd share this anyway. Again, the ride was only 10 minutes and I wanted him to spill as many beans as possible.
p.s. I didn't know this, but my 2020 Model Y's rear seats recline a little! I inspected the car at the end of the night and noticed the rear seat backs didn't match. I'm sure the Tesla employee, who also has a Tesla, knew about this little trick. A lucky, serendipitous experience all around.
p.p.s. I've only given 28 rides so far, but half the people comment how they've never been in a Tesla and how cool it is. The other half said nothing about the car, but no negative comments yet. We have university in town, and most of my rides have been to college students thus far. Pretty sure the guy with the late model GMC diesel pickup that needed to be fetched from the body shop is going to talk to his wife about Tesla, he was really impressed with car, had lots of questions, and I was able to give him a real good run down of the vehicle's many functions because we were stopped at a train crossing for like five whole minutes.
Started driving Uber earlier this week because our Airbnb guests in Sedona, AZ, have been more frequently requesting the service. Being an isolated, expensive little enclave with minimal public transportation infrastructure and, from what I hear, poor ride-share reliability, I figured I'd at least offer Uber rides to our guests upon request for a better customer experience when I'm at the property. Plus, maybe I'll sell a Tesla or two in the process.
So I picked up a gentleman at his hotel yesterday here in Flagstaff, AZ, (I spend most of my time at our place in Flagstaff) to deliver him to the airport. He greeted me with a big smile, cheerfully saying how happy he was to see a Tesla Uber. Explained to me he's been an employee of Tesla since 2016, started in sales/delivery, but now works in the Supercharger division. He was in town for a Tesla Supercharger conference with about 30 other attendees (why they were in Flagstaff of all places I've no idea, but the ride was only 10 minutes and I wanted him to keep talking). He said the conference was a planning committee on how to "double" (yes he said double) Supercharger capacity in the next 18 months or so. I didn't ask him to clarify whether he meant just the lower 48 states of the U.S. or the world or what, but he said with how many Teslas Tesla has been selling, they need to expand the Supercharger network and fast. Seems impossible to me, but I'm just reporting what he said.
Two weeks ago he was at GigaTexas. Said 50% of the factory is dedicated to Cybertruck production. That's what he said so I'm reporting it here. He also said (and I was able to confirm this here; you'll see cool images of the pre-built charging stalls) a new 20 stall Supercharger site was likely to come online here in Flagstaff today (2/10/22), the final driveway concrete was poured yesterday, with a pull-through for Cybertrucks towing trailers! I've never seen a Supercharger site with pull-throughs for trailers. Does this also mean there is a Megacharger at this site?? Can Cybertruck use a Supercharger as well as a Megacharger? I will try to get over there today to check it out and report back.
Finally, as he was getting out, he said Tesla's got a lot on its plate, but "We feel like 2023 is going to be the big year for Tesla." Again, who knows what that means exactly, but as a Tesla bull I interpret that statement with happy green dollar signs in my cartoon eyeballs. I'm really biased here and want to see the SP at +$420 ASAP. Hope springs eternal...
Also, the guy looked healthy, happy, well-rested and fit. That is important to me as an investor. I like to see happy, healthy employees because most of the time that translates into productive, loyal employees. Just further bolsters my investment thesis. If the guy was all gloomy, depressed and fat, that would bother me a bit--yeah yeah, one data point, I know, but still, it matters, no matter how insignificant the point. I feel like most of the Tesla employees I interact with seem relatively healthy, happy and well-rested. You can tell when people aren't. Healthy happy people are productive people, whatever they end up doing in life.
Sadly, this post leaves us with way more questions than answers, but I figured I'd share this anyway. Again, the ride was only 10 minutes and I wanted him to spill as many beans as possible.
p.s. I didn't know this, but my 2020 Model Y's rear seats recline a little! I inspected the car at the end of the night and noticed the rear seat backs didn't match. I'm sure the Tesla employee, who also has a Tesla, knew about this little trick. A lucky, serendipitous experience all around.
p.p.s. I've only given 28 rides so far, but half the people comment how they've never been in a Tesla and how cool it is. The other half said nothing about the car, but no negative comments yet. We have university in town, and most of my rides have been to college students thus far. Pretty sure the guy with the late model GMC diesel pickup that needed to be fetched from the body shop is going to talk to his wife about Tesla, he was really impressed with car, had lots of questions, and I was able to give him a real good run down of the vehicle's many functions because we were stopped at a train crossing for like five whole minutes.
Just a brilliant story in so many ways, thank you!
I find it interesting that your definition of "luxury" includes supply and process rather than product.
You cite human labor as a part of what makes something luxurious. Yet, it's often the case that tolerance variations are reduced, and precision increased, with a well-tuned automated process. Robots will make the perfect weld each and every time. It needs to be inspected, but that too is often achieved with higher accuracy by an automated system. Rather than your "higher proportion of human labor", this reduces the proportion of humans needed for a mechanically superior product.
Similarly with your assertion on materials availability. How does the volume I can purchase have any impact on the quality thereof? While you might argue that the law of supply and demand implies that the more expensive materials often have less supply, that's really not speaking to the issue of the quality of the material itself. There have been countless materials advancements wherein the newer, superior product was ultimately cheaper/easier to produce than the lesser quality item it replaced.
It sounds to me like a definition of "luxury" based on exclusivity due to things like old-world artisanship, rather than objective definition based on the end product itself.
"People who want everyone to know they're rich..." usually aren't.
Consumer Financial Decisions (CFD)" CFD | CFD and MacroMonitor History | SBI
back in ancient times, 1979, found that consumers tend to act as if they had the wealth to which they aspired to extent they could do that. Thus people who could borrow but were not wealthy would often take debt to acquire the things they thought wealthier people would acquire.
The net effect was that Lamborghini, Rolls Royce, Rolex, and other ostentatious things were most often bought by people with less wealth than their behavior would suggest. Of course, people with illicit wealth also displayed the same way. Those observations, shared back then with some manufacturers and distributors of such products (who paid for CFD) began to accommodate the aspirants with clever leases and financing tools. The handful of really wealthy people who bought such things normally paid cash. The word 'luxury' itself implies ostentatious, expensive, profligate. Those who choose that are typically either nouveau riche or aspirants.
In countries with monarchies or authoritarian regimes there are commonly ostentatiously wealthy ruling classes. Those are an obvious exception. Many entrepreneurial successful people also display those characteristics.
Overall, Tesla products are rarely suitable for ostentatious display. They are not overly showy and are intensely practical. Not Luxury. OTOH, those of us who repeatedly buy P versions may well be flirting with ostentation.
[disclaimer: as a onetime member of CFD users I am acutely aware that some of my own habits can be, and have been, ridiculed by my behavioral cohorts among CFD respondents. I protest that islands, aircraft, cars and houses ahem nearly all been profitable. Maybe true, on occasion, but still damned by association
]Finally, To those who persist in always thinking only of purchase price for Tesla products: those products encourage a rationalist approach of Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). Purchase cost simply accelerates adoption rates, with TCO less a consideration as previously included items have higher prices and also subscription bases. One sign of a really clever marketing approach is packaging to minimize resistance to purchase. Always remember that Tesla profitability will, over time, shift more towards pricing the 'ecosystem', akin to that well-honed Apple practice, among others.
Used to have a friend in high school in the early 90's, dude drove a 1990 Nissan 300zx. Mind you, this was a $35k car back then. And here i was, scrounging for change to buy some tacos at taco bell. One day, he invited me over to his place. Guy lived in a 2 bd room apt with his brother and parents. Came to find out, he was running a credit card fraud ring which eventually got his car re-possessed and him going to jail.
Appearances are not all that they are made up to be
Everyone should be aware that Bugatti, Lamborghini, Bentley, VW Fox, Skoda, Audi and Porsche, among others, all share quite a large number of parts, primarily ones that are not visible to purchasers. The prototypical example among some is the use of common engine and other parts dimensions, which allows for some common parts from VW Fox to Bugatti Chiron. Check out the VAG commonality for details. One critique is:
Has VW Group Gone Too Far On Sharing Design Details Between Brands? | Carscoops
Parts sharing is one thing - using very similar design elements across widely different brands, quite another
www.carscoops.com
That all points out that ICE techniques are not really very helpful to BEV techniques.
Other things remaining equal, for example, my detailer regularly says the best paint quality is in the highest volume vehicles and the worst in lowest volume. That extends to most products, so lack of scale harms BEV quality. Even for Tesla highest quality probably is Model Y lowest is Model X.
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Luxury adds complexity and that seems counter to Tesla's philosophy of simplifying manufacturing, reducing parts, and mass mass production. Aside from cost, doing all this stuff increases manufacturing time and would reduce production output.
You don't need radar, cameras can do enough.
You don't need ultrasonic sensors, cameras can do enough (eventually).
You don't need sensor fusion, cameras can do enough.
You don't need ventilated seats, or adjustable lumbar support, or a sunroof that opens, or motorized window shades, or knurled aluminum buttons, or a HUD, or an instrument cluster in the 3/Y, or ambient lighting, or just any number of things that over-the-top vehicles have today.
You can produce many of something that's simple or you can produce fewer of something that is more complex. Tesla being able to command a high price for products that are relatively cheap and easy to produce makes the company a good investment, but the high price doesn't make them luxury IMO.
It is pertinent to note that LK and IDRA supply nearly all OEMs with some presses some types. Gigapresses are, as we all know, vastly more complex to install and operate than are the smaller ones and necessitate highly refined materials processing prior to deploying in the Gigapress. It is quite likely that fewer are actually likely to successfully deploy them than have been claimed to be ordering them. Disclosures are not exactly explicit in most cases.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
MorganStanley is also a Tesla Market Maker. Recall that they bought online broker E*Trade:
Morgan Stanley Closes Acquisition of E*TRADE | Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley Closes Acquisition of E*TRADE
www.morganstanley.com
AJ's mates on the other side of MS's 'China Wall' cried out for help on all the $200 Calls they sold, and that Wall's not very sound proof:
It played out.Let the games begin! Looks like they are gonna try for $200 today
There's no doubt they have the collective fire power to pin at $200. Question in my mind is: Will they have enough left over to unwind the pin early next week without causing too much upside "damage". Although, if necessary, I guess they can always just add to the mountain of FTDs that they've created.MorganStanley is also a Tesla Market Maker. Recall that they bought online broker E*Trade:
Morgan Stanley Closes Acquisition of E*TRADE | Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley Closes Acquisition of E*TRADE
AJ's mates on the other side of MS's 'China Wall' cried out for help on all the $200 Calls they sold, and that Wall's not very sound proof:
View attachment 905660
Last time I checked it where 2:1 in favor of puts at 200..?MorganStanley is also a Tesla Market Maker. Recall that they bought online broker E*Trade:
Morgan Stanley Closes Acquisition of E*TRADE | Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley Closes Acquisition of E*TRADE
AJ's mates on the other side of MS's 'China Wall' cried out for help on all the $200 Calls they sold, and that Wall's not very sound proof:
View attachment 905660
It's crazy that people pretend to be shocked when you say something like this. Of COURSE these guys talk. Chinese Wall my behind. All it takes is a happy hour and some winks and nods, with a promise to trade info the other way the next time.MorganStanley is also a Tesla Market Maker. Recall that they bought online broker E*Trade:
Morgan Stanley Closes Acquisition of E*TRADE | Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley Closes Acquisition of E*TRADE
AJ's mates on the other side of MS's 'China Wall' cried out for help on all the $200 Calls they sold, and that Wall's not very sound proof:
Pictured, the Chinese Wall.
Treasury yields heading up is likely the real driver here
Is the market starting to give the Fed a smidge more credibility?
Is the market starting to give the Fed a smidge more credibility?
OT
The impact of the 7.8 earthquake in Turkey and Syria is horrendous and horrible. Not only over 21,000 dead, but all the people left without a home, food, water, electricity, and especially heat in the middle of the winter. I've been wondering how Tesla and SpaceX could help. Tesla perhaps sending Megapacks and solar panels to provide electricity, SpaceX providing Starlinks for Internet search and communication. I'm sure Elon and the teams are thinking about it. It would also be great if the folks that build the tents that Tesla has used so well could provide some for temporary housing where the electricity can be utilized for lights and heaters.
Unfortunately this will take time, months not days. But the quicker something like this could be implemented the better. When I think of those poor people suffering from this catastrophe, it makes me cry. Surely something like this is being considered... at least I hope so.
I'd post this on the blue bird, but I've been suspended for some reason, don't know why. If one or more of our more prolific posters could send a message to Elon communicating this, I would sincerely appreciate it.
The impact of the 7.8 earthquake in Turkey and Syria is horrendous and horrible. Not only over 21,000 dead, but all the people left without a home, food, water, electricity, and especially heat in the middle of the winter. I've been wondering how Tesla and SpaceX could help. Tesla perhaps sending Megapacks and solar panels to provide electricity, SpaceX providing Starlinks for Internet search and communication. I'm sure Elon and the teams are thinking about it. It would also be great if the folks that build the tents that Tesla has used so well could provide some for temporary housing where the electricity can be utilized for lights and heaters.
Unfortunately this will take time, months not days. But the quicker something like this could be implemented the better. When I think of those poor people suffering from this catastrophe, it makes me cry. Surely something like this is being considered... at least I hope so.
I'd post this on the blue bird, but I've been suspended for some reason, don't know why. If one or more of our more prolific posters could send a message to Elon communicating this, I would sincerely appreciate it.
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