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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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OFF TOPIC: I just want to say that after 10 years on this thread, many of you feel like friends and it’s a really a nice community. I’m saying this because on Thursday I have a heart surgery. I’m 67 with some childhood heart damage. Just in case you don’t ever hear back from me, it’s been great knowing you all. I think all will turn out ok. Just to remind you old timers, it was the 2012 loss of my wife to oil company refinery poisons that caused her fatal AML leukemia which made me vow to never buy gas. And so I bought my 2013 Model so as to never poison someone else’s child. It was very hard for me to afford it. And from that purchase led me to this thread. And with help of others here, I made a small fortune to leave my kids. In a weird way, the oil companies , though they shortened my wife’s life, also enriched my kids. Anyway, my surgery should be fine but just in case, thanks for the friendship!!!

Nominated for "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit". Thank-you, Gene.
 
I find that outlook silly. If they ramp production and lower prices I'm perfectly happy buying 2 Model Y with 2022 looks and tech. (or 2023 looks and tech, I'm not picky about what tech version they offer at this point)

I've bought 0 Tesla's to this point so I'm saying there are tons of people like me just waiting for a price drop on Model Y and we'll buy it with no other changes necessary.
1. Its the way the market works. Tesla presently updates its cars now visually. Why the urberturbine wheels? A visually change, Why change the headlights on the 3? A visual change to keep things fresh. Highland, looks to be a visual front change, along with new base wheels. Again a visual change. The same demo that buys Teslas change their expensive phones every year, they expect updates.

2. You speak to a point I mentioned last month. Tesla is knowingly or unknowingly training people to wait on the sidelines for the next price drop. I am waiting next to you but for a Model 3. Now a Highland Model 3. Call it demand levers or whatever one wants, but its training the market to wait.

The above is not bad, its the real world and consumer market we live in.
 
OFF TOPIC: I just want to say that after 10 years on this thread, many of you feel like friends and it’s a really a nice community. I’m saying this because on Thursday I have a heart surgery. I’m 67 with some childhood heart damage. Just in case you don’t ever hear back from me, it’s been great knowing you all. I think all will turn out ok. Just to remind you old timers, it was the 2012 loss of my wife to oil company refinery poisons that caused her fatal AML leukemia which made me vow to never buy gas. And so I bought my 2013 Model so as to never poison someone else’s child. It was very hard for me to afford it. And from that purchase led me to this thread. And with help of others here, I made a small fortune to leave my kids. In a weird way, the oil companies , though they shortened my wife’s life, also enriched my kids. Anyway, my surgery should be fine but just in case, thanks for the friendship!!!
gene, you have massive levels of love and support surrounding you. That, along with the great advantages of modern medical science and brilliantly skilled doctors and support teams, will have you coming through this and on the road to full recovery faster than a new Model S Plaid!

As a man your same age and with a coronary calcium score (get one you older guys & gals) in the undesirable high zone, I may well be following your current trajectory sometime in the not too distant future. And we've all heard how some patients actually feel better than they had been feeling for years afterward. Aren't we all so very lucky to be living in such times?


And just so you know; you are right there in that group of individuals that I feel an elevated level of gratitude towards.
If it weren't for you and those few others who took a risk, and supported the Tesla mission so early on, it simply would not have happened, period. We'd all still be looking towards an endless future of breathing toxic fumes from emissions spewing out of the vast myriad of machines burning fossil fuels. There is now a great chance that those days are numbered in significantly smaller amounts. Without the success of Tesla, in my humble opinion, there is NO WAY we'd be heading towards the goal we're now destined to reach. No. Way.

Godspeed gene, and love from ALL OF US!
 
OFF TOPIC: I just want to say that after 10 years on this thread, many of you feel like friends and it’s a really a nice community. I’m saying this because on Thursday I have a heart surgery. I’m 67 with some childhood heart damage. Just in case you don’t ever hear back from me, it’s been great knowing you all. I think all will turn out ok. Just to remind you old timers, it was the 2012 loss of my wife to oil company refinery poisons that caused her fatal AML leukemia which made me vow to never buy gas. And so I bought my 2013 Model so as to never poison someone else’s child. It was very hard for me to afford it. And from that purchase led me to this thread. And with help of others here, I made a small fortune to leave my kids. In a weird way, the oil companies , though they shortened my wife’s life, also enriched my kids. Anyway, my surgery should be fine but just in case, thanks for the friendship!!!
You will pull through friend, positive thoughts from all of us here at TMC! Make sure the first thing you do is check in here after your successful surgery!
 
There is VERY little actual evidence of model Y revamp, only rumour. I wouldn't be at all surprised to discover rivals are spreading such rumours to soften demand for the Y.
My October 22 Y feels like the most cutting edge car in the world. There is no urgent need for a restyling. Lower production cost (and price) is all thats needed. (Oh and actually working FSD features in Europe obviously...)
Sure, try asking Toyota what they think. According to them the 2023 Model Y and the 2020 Model Y represent entirely different cars under look alike skin.

Anybody who's owned multiple Teslas of same model in different years knows they aren't the same. My 2014 Model S P85DL was inferior in every respect to my 2021 ModelS Plaid. The look more or less the same other than fixing the old grille but under the skin they're vast improvement, just like the Model Y discovery by Toyota.

Your statement is false for Tesla because you seemingly equate styling change to 'revamp'. That is true for many OEM's who change nothing underneath, change the skin and call that revamp.

Front and rear giga castings and structural battery pack plus heat pump and so on are massive improvements. Of course if your perspective is form and not substance you're spot on. If so, may I recommend a Chevy, perhaps, or maybe a Toyota. They'll satisfy need for form rather than substance.

Apologies for sarcasm without proper labeling.
 
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1. Its the way the market works. Tesla presently updates its cars now visually. Why the urberturbine wheels? A visually change, Why change the headlights on the 3? A visual change to keep things fresh. Highland, looks to be a visual front change, along with new base wheels. Again a visual change. The same demo that buys Teslas change their expensive phones every year, they expect updates.

2. You speak to a point I mentioned last month. Tesla is knowingly or unknowingly training people to wait on the sidelines for the next price drop. I am waiting next to you but for a Model 3. Now a Highland Model 3. Call it demand levers or whatever one wants, but its training the market to wait.

The above is not bad, its the real world and consumer market we live in.

My hope is they start advertising, just to educate consumers on charging, road trips, safety, etc. With that simple push, I think they'll sell every one they can make, regardless of change since newbies won't know or care about the change (maybe afterwards, but not now). Only us diehards hang on every rumor, etc.
 
Numbers for Norway just in: Model Y was the most sold car once again (1271 cars sold, ID4 in second had 485)!

In the manufacturer ranking Tesla was also ahead at 1551 vs. Volkswagen brand second at 1326.

Wait a second? Is that for December? Kinda late doncha think? It can't be January, the cars aren't even all on the boats yet./s

No - it's the February numbers for 2023. February is already something of the past this year.

Tesla sold more than 4 TMYs for each TM3 in February in Norway.

And I am glad I could be counted!

 
2. You speak to a point I mentioned last month. Tesla is knowingly or unknowingly training people to wait on the sidelines for the next price drop. I am waiting next to you but for a Model 3. Now a Highland Model 3. Call it demand levers or whatever one wants, but its training the market to wait.

I've been waiting for that price drop since before prices rose. Tesla has done nothing to train me to wait.

My thought before the Model Y started deliveries was to wait for the ramp up and when there was no queue, buy one after the price had dropped.

To this day Model Y still hasn't ramped enough to offset the growing demand so I'm still waiting.

If Texas produces 2x as many model Y as California that's triple the supply for me as US customer. Is that enough to get rid of the queue and drop prices? I'm betting it is. If I'm right I buy a newer lower priced car of equal quality to what I could have bought anytime in the last few years.

I and others like me are the invisible support for "demand issues", we are waiting in the wings to buy, but don't need a car this week, month, year.

Again that has nothing to do with any "training" related to past price changes.
 
There is VERY little actual evidence of model Y revamp, only rumour. I wouldn't be at all surprised to discover rivals are spreading such rumours to soften demand for the Y.
My October 22 Y feels like the most cutting edge car in the world. There is no urgent need for a restyling. Lower production cost (and price) is all thats needed. (Oh and actually working FSD features in Europe obviously...)
Well, there's rather strong evidence of a model 3 refresh. And I'd expect that Tesla won't just get it up to Y level, but push some components one step further...
Thus it follows, that MY now has a gap to close and overtake again..

And my bet/wish for the Model 2 announcement:
Take a MY, put it on 15/16" wheels with street suspension, half the HP, downgrade to cloth-seats/interior with basic sound system and then squeeze it slightly smaller than a model 3 (length&width, keep the height), smooth out the shape, done.
 
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My thought before the Model Y started deliveries was to wait for the ramp up and when there was no queue, buy one after the price had dropped.

To this day Model Y still hasn't ramped enough to offset the growing demand so I'm still waiting.

There was no queue and there was a massive price drop in January. If you didn't buy then, you didn't need a car then. It's not a matter of 'ramping enough'.
 
There was no queue and there was a massive price drop in January. If you didn't buy then, you didn't need a car then. It's not a matter of 'ramping enough'.
There was a price drop in January but not "massive" compared to the overall pricing history (it negated a recent series of price increases). Zoom out.

As to queue, any emptying of the queue recently was related to end of year and inflation reduction act. I'm talking about an emptying of the queue without external factors (based on increased supply, not short term bubbles in demand).

The OTM-AWD is still off the menu, at the lest I'd expect that to be in the configurator as supply increases. I couldn't get the car in the configuration I wanted recently. I don't need the LR pack and I want the 19" wheels and Blue paint, not a config you can find in the OTM inventory easily if at all.

I'm looking for a Model Y that is cheaper than the 2021 lows and my income is low enough that I don't get the entire $7,500 credit (I'd have to be at home to look and see what my tax was but I'm thinking it was around $6k.)


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Hello sports fans. We are now 2 months into the season and team TSLA has won 2/3 of the sessions so far, an amazing turnaround from last season. There was a stretch at the beginning of this month where they won 14 of 15. With Coach Elon giving a big pep talk to the fans today, it should be an interesting season.

Last Close:205.71
Margin of W/L:-1.92
Volume:153,144,912
High - Low:7.48
Close/52 week high:52.3%
Season
Record:26-130.667
Total margin of wins:161.48
Total margin of losses:-78.95
YTD gain/loss:82.5367.0%
Best Win:17.63Jan 27
Worst Loss:-15.08Jan 3
Last 10:6-4
Streak:L1
Avg margin of victory:6.21
Avg margin of defeat:-6.07
Avg Volume:196,791,350
Avg Volume of Last 10:179,683,335
Avg High - Low:9.83
Avg H - L of Last 10:10.77
 
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If true, this suggests to me that they are leapfrogging. Model 3 first and fairly efficient, Model Y released and was a bit more cost effective, they iterated on the Model Y a bit, now M3 Highland comes out and is even more cost effective than the most modern Model Y. So Juniper is catching up with Highland and perhaps making it even a bit more efficient.

As usual, Tesla going the opposite direction of legacy. Legacy builds a car, then piles more and more features on it to justify higher prices. Tesla builds cars and cuts costs on producing them every chance they can get to bring the price down.
 
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Great new interview with Dave Lee @DaveT . I like the way he thinks Gen 3 will be a luxury car, not just equivalent to a Corolla. Seems impossible, but if Tesla can pull it off, it will be unbelievable.

 
As to queue, any emptying of the queue recently was related to end of year and inflation reduction act. I'm talking about an emptying of the queue without external factors (based on increased supply, not short term bubbles in demand).

It’ll be like waiting for Godot. Tesla does a very good job with matching production with supply. It rarely carries excess inventory. Now they get upside down the other way frequently where they have too much demand, but that’s the opposite of what you are waiting for.
 
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Great new interview with Dave Lee @DaveT . I like the way he thinks Gen 3 will be a luxury car, not just equivalent to a Corolla. Seems impossible, but if Tesla can pull it off, it will be unbelievable.


It wouldn't be on brand to ship a stripped down POS. Current Tesla's don't have overly expensive and exotic interior materials, so the "luxury" comes from the tech and simplicity.

I expect something like the SR in terms of features. Perhaps software unlocks or maybe not. Still needs nice seats, big screen, autopilot, voice commands etc. etc.