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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Worst part was having committed to the lower price to so many people while on eBay the same $80k truck got flipped for $120-160k. Maybe they should not have followed teslas example of preorders at fixed prices but instead sold them auction style themselves to find the perfect market price of the day
Some people are suggesting Tesla does this too with the first 50k Cybertrucks or so. It’s a bad idea.

The number of Rivians which were flipped successfully for big profits is fairly small. For an auto company, is the bad press of screwing over your most loyal fans worth a couple million dollars? If you figure Rivian might have been able to flip 500 at a $50k premium, that’s $25m… sounds big, but on the scheme of things, it’s a blip, it’s 0.15% of their cash on cash stockpile from the IPO. I don’t think 500 Rivians got flipped for $150k so that’s being generous.

Not a lot of people with the income to afford a $150k vehicle want a truck that is going to be worth half as much in 12-18 months.
 
Papafox posted the Open Interest Chart (Monday 7 am ET data release):


Any doubt what MMs want on Friday? (rarely seen such a clean Options breakpoint). MMs workin' it now:

View attachment 912573

Mid-BB (dotted red curve above) is also right around $200, which will attract more technical traders.
Interest Chart looks quite the same today as Mon and Tues. No love for 215 at the Bollinger Band it appears. The Puts look broad, ready to pounce maybe.

1677690817020.png
 
Nothing burger. When the CCP say things publicly, that means they have no intention on doing anything and it's just for show. The CCP never execute what most consider to be unfavorable moves publicly, but quietly.
My vague sense is that the CCP and Musk are less than 100% friendly lately. As evidence, point to the lack of GF Shanghai expansion (yet). Of course, that could be due primarily to general economic conditions in China, but it is curious.
 
It’ll be like waiting for Godot. Tesla does a very good job with matching production with supply. It rarely carries excess inventory. Now they get upside down the other way frequently where they have too much demand, but that’s the opposite of what you are waiting for.
Multiple demand levers in my life can trigger it even if Tesla never drops prices.

But so far Austin hasn't hit full capacity output for Model Y and I'm willing to wait some amount of time for that to see if I'm right.

If demand is higher than 3x Fremont supply then I just have to pay the going rate. I'll do so eventually if I'm wrong.

I won't say exactly when I'll make the decision but it's something like when the price of a Model Y configured like I want is cheaper or Austin Model Y production has maxed out (whichever comes first might trigger 1 purchase, and if prices drop further or a different car becomes available that might be purchase number 2).
 
This truck reminds me of what would happen if you tried to render a normal truck with only 4 bits of data (shades of gray) reduced to 1% polygon triangles. Maybe that's how it was first conceptualized. 🤷‍♂️

Almost anything Tesla does can be reduced to First Principles logic.

1. A good truck should be resistant to scratches, dings, dents, etc.
2. A good EV should have an aerodynamic shape.
3. Ultra-hardened cold-worked steel alloys are resistant to scratches, dings, dents, etc.
4. Hardened steel cannot be effectively stamped, but can be folded.
5. Folded panels require an angular shape.
6. Therefore, a good EV truck must be made out of hardened steel folded into an angular, aerodynamic shape.
 
It wouldn't be on brand to ship a stripped down POS. Current Tesla's don't have overly expensive and exotic interior materials, so the "luxury" comes from the tech and simplicity.

I expect something like the SR in terms of features. Perhaps software unlocks or maybe not. Still needs nice seats, big screen, autopilot, voice commands etc. etc.
"Luxury" but with certain minor changes in the interest of cost savings.

Like Cybertruck, Door handles replaced by touch sensors/ auto open. Looks slick, saves money, double win.

If possible, mirror delete. Again saves money, better experience.

Steering wheel? Gone. Non-Robotaxi models shipped with a Nintendo style controller. FSD fixes any driver glitches. As a bonus, you can hand it off to your partner in the other seat when it's your turn to nap. Also, no more need for separate LHD/ RDH vehicles. Just don't lose the controller under the seat cushions. It's $50 to replace them.
 
Almost anything Tesla does can be reduced to First Principles logic.

1. A good truck should be resistant to scratches, dings, dents, etc.
2. A good EV should have an aerodynamic shape.
3. Ultra-hardened cold-worked steel alloys are resistant to scratches, dings, dents, etc.
4. Hardened steel cannot be effectively stamped, but can be folded.
5. Folded panels require an angular shape.
6. Therefore, a good EV truck must be made out of hardened steel folded into an angular, aerodynamic shape.

Franz Von Holzhausen:
The Cybertruck is one of those moments where, in a way, form followed function. A lot of times we put the form in front of the function, especially in the automotive world, and it's really tough to mix the two.

But Cybertruck is really born out the idea of a different way of manufacturing, a material that puts the toughness on the outside. So we really wanted to use stainless steel as a material so that the hardest part of the vehicle was on the outside, not the delicate paint. And it felt right for a truck that's used in like a Swiss army knife in any kind of environment has to be tough.

So stainless steel is really tough to form, especially when you make it bulletproof or thicker to withstand impacts and not be damaged. And so we really looked at new ways of manufacturing. You could only brake form and form it in one direction. You can't do compound curves or things with the thickness of the stainless steel that we're using. So it really led us to a design that was really planar, really simplistic, and it was also a chance to break the paradigm of what pickup trucks have been for the past 60 or 70 years. The same...there's kind of this three-box shape, and we just thought from an aerodynamic perspective, having a covered back with a sloping roof would also be helpful. And oddly enough, it may not look it, but the Cybertruck is an incredibly aerodynamic vehicle.