Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[petit_bateau]

Apologies if posted already, but I thought it would be worth going through the Tweets that Martin Viecha has liked in the past couple of days. This one stood out, as he works out the Gen3 margins to be at least 30%:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631355949377019914

Funny that,

UNIT REVENUE

COGS

I think @The Accountant and myself have both have these same numbers in our models for the last couple of years. Looks like we were about 1-year out in timing though. That is a combination of Covid and delayed 4680 ramp.

 

[electracity]

I'd love for Mexico to produce more stuff for the US so that we can rely less on China. Shorter and less politically risky supply chain. Likely better environmental standards. Mexico getting wealthier will also resolve a lot of border issues. Count me as a fan of near-shoring.

It's happening. Mexico is lower cost and more skilled blue collar..

 

[Tim S]

Yes

Moneterrey is a major manufacturing city of 5m people. It existed as a place well before the USA existed. It can absorb Tesla and build a site and all that stuff.

Seriously folks, just because places are not in the USA doesn't mean folk run around with bows and arrows.

Workers even have houses to live in.

Monterrey - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Clarification... the city population is 1.14M (as of 2020). The metro area is over 5M.

 

[Bet TSLA]

That does raise one issue.

There is no rail line coming past this site.

Looks like a job for... The Boring Company. New cars leave the factory through a tunnel going straight to a rail line. Get rid of transport trucks and the loading and unloading process, at least until the cars get to their rail destination.

 

[Zero CO2]

I am half way through all the posts on investor day and sunroof musings there seems to be confusion that there was " no new product reveal at investor day" This is false

1) The factory is the product per Elon tweet below and many other times over the years
2) We got a ton of detail how the factory was being improved ...
3) WE got an announcement of a new Mexican Factory based on the new factory design

this is so much more meaningful vs. a specific $25K car

https://twitter.com/x/status/1348716679774265344

 

[larmor]

I'd love for Mexico to produce more stuff for the US so that we can rely less on China. Shorter and less politically risky supply chain. Likely better environmental standards. Mexico getting wealthier will also resolve a lot of border issues. Count me as a fan of near-shoring.

And/or supply South America, until there is a local plant on the continent.

 

[petit_bateau]

Looks like a job for... The Boring Company. New cars leave the factory through a tunnel going straight to a rail line. Get rid of transport trucks and the loading and unloading process, at least until the cars get to their rail destination.

Until we know the boundaries of the land parcel(s) we can't be sure. The topgraphy is a relatively narrow valley, i.e. a short tunnel under the highways if they choose to site the railroad loading yard on the south side of the highway(s). That's not really the rigt way to use tunnel boring technology. I suspect conventional cuts in the highways will do it.

@mickle just pulled out a close up map, but what that doesn't show is the land topgraphy (i.e. the contours). They are what will force the railroads to run, probably in the directions I sketched out.

What I don't know is who owns land in Mexico ? Does it all default to the Republic unless it is owned by a person ? Are there corridors that are definitely owned by the Republic ? Or the local stare ? Or what ? Can compulsory purchase be used to support strategic infrastructure (which this is) ? Etc ? (I know the cess pit of oil & gas law in Mexico .... and the political reality)

 

[JRP3]

E-brakes are a possibility, but if you can plug in a harness, you can thread in a brake line.

I'd think threading a brake line is a bit more complex.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Until we know the boundaries of the land parcel(s) we can't be sure. The topgraphy is a relatively narrow valley, i.e. a short tunnel under the highways if they choose to site the railroad loading yard on the south side of the highway(s). That's not really the rigt way to use tunnel boring technology. I suspect conventional cuts in the highways will do it.

@mickle just pulled out a close up map, but what that doesn't show is the land topgraphy (i.e. the contours). They are what will force the railroads to run, probably in the directions I sketched out.

What I don't know is who owns land in Mexico ? Does it all default to the Republic unless it is owned by a person ? Are there corridors that are definitely owned by the Republic ? Or the local stare ? Or what ? Can compulsory purchase be used to support strategic infrastructure (which this is) ? Etc ? (I know the cess pit of oil & gas law in Mexico .... and the political reality)

Are there important limitations on a straight shot underground? What difference does it make where the land boundaries are if a tunnel runs from the end of the line straight to existing tracks several (tens of?) miles away? What they need to figure out is how to package up the cars for rail travel, presumably in some automated fashion appropriate to doing something useful with them at the other end of their journey.

 

[MP3Mike]

I'm also a fan of near-shoring, particularly since Elon began extoling the virtues of it years ago. "It is less wasteful, and ultimately cheaper+better to avoid transporting atoms all over the globe, if you can manage it."

However, this is not near-shoring as far as the USA is concerned. Giga Mexico is being built to serve the Mexican and South American markets - cars won't come up across the border (as the Mustang Mach E does)

It could be near-shoring in terms of other things. Like maybe Giga Mexico will make the 48v parts, since Tier x suppliers don't currently do that, and those parts can be shipped to Giga Texas to be used to build vehicles. (Though since the Cybertruck is already 48v, and production starts "soon", they have to have some source for the necessary 48v parts already.)

 

[y_naught]

That does raise one issue.

There is no rail line coming pas this site. There is a rail line from Monterrey/Saltillo down to the main port at Altamira (which is what I/we generally sent our containers via) but that line goes Saltillo - Garcia - Monterrey using the valley to the north of the large hill behind the site.

I'm afaid Google maps doesn't really like displaying rail lines very effectively so it is hard to pick them out. The nearest place to connect on to the rail line is at El Durazno. I've circled El Durazno in the picture below and put a oblong box where the site is by Rancho Carvajal. I think they will need to ultimately bring in a rail spur and a rail loading/logistics area as part of a full-sized plant. I've sketched where the turn outs might go.

It is quite possible that a lot of the land grab is to secure the necessary rail and logistics yard areas.

The volume gosspi re Moneterrey also tends towards the internal decision making inside Tesla settling more on the fewer/larger sites (4m/tr each, perhaps) rather than the many/smaller sites (1-2m/yr each) for auto manufacturing. That in turn would suggest one more in Asia/Pacific, one more in India (if India ever gets the message re 100% Tesla control), and one more in Europe. Does that mean in turn that Canada or north-east USA are now out of the running for a Tesla auto plant ? It also means we should probably expect auto site decisions at about one yearly intervals for the next few years. Plus more storage assembly site decisions.

View attachment 913432

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Someone call the Boring Company!

Edit: ninja’d again by @Bet TSLA

 

[petit_bateau]

Are there important limitations on a straight shot underground? What difference does it make where the land boundaries are if a tunnel runs from the end of the line straight to existing tracks several (tens of?) miles away? What they need to figure out is how to package up the cars for rail travel, presumably in some automated fashion appropriate to doing something useful with them at the other end of their journey.

It makes a lot of difference: legally, economically, and technically. Putting tracks across a piece of valley is fairly cheap. Building a long railroad tunnel is very expensive, Building a railroad tunnel is technically out of limits for TBC machinery. And law says no in many jurisdictions. Plus much other issues.

Ideal situation is state/federal level owns all the valley land and co-operates with Tesla to put a railroad through some highway penetrations using traditonal civil engineering methods. That would be cheap, fast, and legally straightforward.

(But I don't know the relevant legal situation in Mexico, that is not at all my comfort zone)

 

[FlamingPIG]

As I would imagine there are many institution that gets Tesla story, we just dont hear about them since they are not in the spot light.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631772246166614016

 

[MC3OZ]

Bosch showed off a system they said they were working with "a major EV maker" (i.e. Tesla) where it was all Brake by wire (on autoline after hours, if I remember correctly). I fully expected this on the Cybertruck, but it makes sense why you'd need it for the next gen platform! It's all coming together!!!

Thank you to Brembo for this awesome opportunity! I had a blast experiencing Sensify out on the track at the Michelin Laurens Proving Grounds in South Carolina.

The car in the clip is a Model 3.

 

[y_naught]

Bosch showed off a system they said they were working with "a major EV maker" (i.e. Tesla) where it was all Brake by wire (on autoline after hours, if I remember correctly). I fully expected this on the Cybertruck, but it makes sense why you'd need it for the next gen platform! It's all coming together!!!

There’s also Brembo’s “Sensify” system: BREMBO UNVEILS SENSIFY™

Edit: ninja’d by @MC3OZ

 

[SageBrush]

How do you cut power (wattage, not current) by 75% when stepping voltage up by a factor of four?

You do not, and no one is saying so. Increasing voltage by 4x reduces current by 4x.
Ohmic heat losses in the wire are reduced 16x. (I^2*R)

End of melodrama

 

[SageBrush]

True for you and most of us, but so far as not benefitting from pack life optimizing software, IMHO you give too much credit to many Tesla end users, I've often plugged in in a hurry with the charge level overlooked at some ridiculous setting from a recent trip.

I resemble that remark too, but I catch it the next charging session

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Clarification... the city population is 1.14M (as of 2020). The metro area is over 5M.

Came across this. Mexico poor living in misery in Monterrey-area housing project

This will be Tesla's first attempt at building vehicles in a...less than first world country. The violence, government corruption and lack of education and motivation of the work force may be a wake-up call. I hope not, after all other auto companies build vehicles there. The component division I used to work at had a plant there at one time. Work force made far more than normal for the region-they would show up for a week, make enough to live on for the month and disappear until the following month. Now-this was nearly 3 decades ago, I suspect things are a lot better now.

 

[SageBrush]

Willing to go down to four million.

But only if another GF is announced soon.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

I'd think threading a brake line is a bit more complex.

Not really, if the lines are routed on the sub-assemblies. Just tighten an AN or flare fitting. Biggest issue with hydraulic lines is bleeding them, but not exactly rocket science, it's done on every one they make now.