Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Maybe. But seriously. Even Elon has to know that the robotaxi autonomous FSD dream is over, at least for the next decade or two. I personally don’t think it was a malicious deception on Elons or Teslas part, but they need to come clean on this fantasy of robotaxi being a reality with the current hardware software suite. It’s not even remotely close and at the present rate of improvement won’t be for the foreseeable future. I get it. FSD is hard and I’m sure it will happen someday. But Tesla needs to own this and be straight up with folks. I enjoy using FSD but it’s an entertainment feature not any kind of robotaxi feature. I think people would be more understanding if they just came out and explained that it’s just not going to happen on existing cars. Not 3 years ago, not 3 years from now and probably not in 10. Maybe with new hardware someday but not existing cars.

Personally I would still probably buy it again. It’s fun and I like my cars to be fun. Our teslas have always been way fun. But sell it as that. A fun infotainment thing.

Jmho.

Companies like Waymo and Cruise are already there with major limitations. Why would it take 20 years for Tesla to get there plus the rest of the way?

Elon/Tesla were far too optimistic a few years back but it's hard to imagine they don't have a really good idea at this point about what will be required. If H4 won't even get there then why would they bother with that instead of caving and building dedicated taxis with Ghostbuster style junk glued to the car?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Primus? Les Claypool fan?

OT - Oops, fixed it. I meant Optimus. (Could use that memory upgrade from Neuralink).
Les is amazing, I'm a fan now! Thanks.

 

[MC3OZ]

Even Elon has to know that the robotaxi autonomous FSD dream is over, at least for the next decade or two.

Next you are going to tell us, that we can't go to the Moon, because Elon forgot to pack the sandwiches

On things like FSD and 4680 I trust the official company guidance, rather than external speculation.

Even when the guidance has been proven many times to be wrong, it is still the best informed guess at how things will play out.

Sure Elon's track record of FSD prediction isn't great, but I don't expect him to be consistently wrong for another 20 years.

 

[Electroman]

I am very enthused by the YouTube videos I am seeing on 11.3 FSD version. This is the first time I remember it has got more praise than negative comments. End of the year I am optimistic you can see it driving with ease and very little disengagement in most places in the US except in the congested North eastern cities.

 

[2daMoon]

@SOULPEDL @2daMoon Y'all just aged 10 years in one meme.

Only 10? I feel like I got off easy.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Sure Elon's track record of FSD prediction isn't great, but I don't expect him to be consistently wrong for another 20 years.

Elon's track record cannot be described as "isn't great". Rather it's truly horrible, and shows no sign of getting better over time. The latest is a fine example. 11/11/22 release. Wide release by Thanksgiving predicted. Here it is almost Easter and we're still waiting. This abortive attempt with 11.3.3, from my testing, has numerous regressions on local streets while balancing that with some improvements on the highway.

He's getting worse, not better. There is absolutely nothing he can say about FSD at this point that anybody has any reason to believe. He is obviously not working on the software himself, and has insufficient understanding to predict anything. He clearly doesn't even regard it as all the important any more, not in comparison to the good fight against mumble, mumble, whatever.

 

[geometro]

What are expectations for P&D for Q1?

 

[Ogre]

Only 10? I feel like I got off easy.

Well my Dad was a massive Johnny Carson, but Carson was still active when I was in my late teens, so hard to say.

Hard for me to disassociate Carson from my dad though. He had hours of Carson shows on VHS he’d watch them over and over.

 

[Ogre]

What are expectations for P&D for Q1?

Well the street number is 420, Troy seems to be moving his up daily, but he’s settles around 418.

Personally I think we’re going to beat, but maybe not on deliveries. Tesla is cranking out cars, but I don’t think we’re really getting the hard quarter end push so maybe deliveries are inline and production beats.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Well the street number is 420, Troy seems to be moving his up daily, but he’s settles around 418.

Personally I think we’re going to beat, but maybe not on deliveries. Tesla is cranking out cars, but I don’t think we’re really getting the hard quarter end push so maybe deliveries are inline and production beats.

Agreed... I think margins are what is probably the biggest unknown..

 

[Ogre]

Agreed... I think margins are what is probably the biggest unknown..

Looking at the pace of the Berlin ramp, I think we’ll do ok on margins. I’m kind of wondering why Texas is lagging so much, but overall production is higher so at least operating margins should be better.

 

[Ogre]

This likely won’t shock anyone here.

I’m wondering if you order now and take delivery after 4/1 do you get the full credit? Also, seems like the M3 SR is the only one that is getting this message. Also not surprising, but good confirmation if only sort-of-confirmation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1641284020754436096

 

[BornToFly]

OK, which one of you owns this car....

 

[AndrewZ]

I hope Mercedes and Hyundai are successful since that might push Tesla to make the few changes needed to support L3 on controlled access highways which Mercedes is touting. And yes everyone knows Mercedes current capability is awful for highways but that could change.

Yeah it continues being surprising that Tesla hasn't rolled out anything like this, because it seems entirely possible to add modules onto Autopilot that would unlock stuff like a L3 traffic jam assist or better that allows people to legally stop paying attention to what the vehicle is doing in those conditions. And it doesn't need to change what Autopilot normally is, but it would just be those value-added sprinkles on top.

There is a lot of risk mitigation required though. NVIDIA's system does highway driving at normal speeds similar to Autopilot, the question is under what conditions can a company assume liability for the driving task and what the system does while operating -- the stakes are much higher at full highway speeds and I think it becomes more difficult to do stuff like provide the driver with sufficient takeover warning with an L3 system when you're travelling 70mph and covering a lot more distance more quickly.

 

[MC3OZ]

He clearly doesn't even regard it as all the important any more, not in comparison to the good fight against mumble, mumble, whatever.

I disagree with this part, not enough to give the whole post a disagree.

I do agree Elon's credibility in relation to FSD has taken a hit.

But he has never said it isn't important. the FSD team is (as far as I can tell) the same size or bigger.
Human labellers are no longer needed in the same numbers due to auto-labelling.

The Robotaxi and FSD got a mention on Investor Day.,

As things stand, we might have Optimus building cars before we have a legally certified Robotaxi. But Optimus building cars is a great outcome, that one result more than justifies the FSD project.

I see no signs that Elon doesn't view FSD as important, I see some signs that Optimus has become more important. Both are a step change beyond where Tesla is today in terms of revenue and earnings.

 

[jamaatta]

Well the street number is 420, Troy seems to be moving his up daily, but he’s settles around 418.

Personally I think we’re going to beat, but maybe not on deliveries. Tesla is cranking out cars, but I don’t think we’re really getting the hard quarter end push so maybe deliveries are inline and production beats.

Speaking of Tesla deliveries, all daily updated European countries combined (ES, NL, NO, SE), Q1/2023 is up ca. 75 % YoY. 10165 in Q1/2022, now 17773 in Q1/2023. And two days left.

Especially Norway has gone plaid.

 

[ZeApelido]

OK, which one of you owns this car....

View attachment 922919

Someone who is probably now car-poor.

 

[MC3OZ]

Speaking of Tesla deliveries, all daily updated European countries combined (ES, NL, NO, SE), Q1/2023 is up ca. 75 % YoY. 10165 in Q1/2022, now 17773 in Q1/2023. And one day left.

Especially Norway has gone plaid.

Record deliveries in Q1 2023 seems very likely, Q1 is traditionally a slower quarter.

Berlin and Austin seem to be ramping nicely.

Tesla nearly doubles United States (+ Europe) car sales in Q1 2023​

I'll be very surprised if the P&D numbers are not excellent.

 

[Maarten]

Interesting article about consequences of emission rule 6b in China:

Legacy auto faces disaster in China with unsellable cars as pollution crunch looms

Potentially millions of petrol and diesel cars may become unsellable in world's biggest car market as China moves to new pollution standards and EV demand booms.

thedriven.io

Tl;dr:
Advice: do read the article above. If not:
The implementation of emission rule 6b in China by July 1 this year may incur a cascade of negative consequences in the industry; and not just in China.
Especially legacy auto with their huge debts can be pushed to the brink, or over it.

What are the assets against the enormous debts of legacy auto worth, when they cannot produce with a profit anymore?
The question is: will the consequence of this be a cascade into another international crises of the financials (banks) and real estate, to name some.

This will not only make China a country with more clear air, but will likely help China to become, with Tesla, the main player in the car industry worldwide.
I personally cannot believe that this last aspect isn't intentionally into play here.

 

[Singuy]

Yeah it continues being surprising that Tesla hasn't rolled out anything like this, because it seems entirely possible to add modules onto Autopilot that would unlock stuff like a L3 traffic jam assist or better that allows people to legally stop paying attention to what the vehicle is doing in those conditions. And it doesn't need to change what Autopilot normally is, but it would just be those value-added sprinkles on top.

There is a lot of risk mitigation required though. NVIDIA's system does highway driving at normal speeds similar to Autopilot, the question is under what conditions can a company assume liability for the driving task and what the system does while operating -- the stakes are much higher at full highway speeds and I think it becomes more difficult to do stuff like provide the driver with sufficient takeover warning with an L3 system when you're travelling 70mph and covering a lot more distance more quickly.

When Mobile eye charges the manufactures an arm and a leg, you can bet every dollar that the car manufacture is not taking responsibility. They will blame mobile eye and get them to pay for any accidents just like how GM got LG to pay for every battery fire recall.

Tesla will be the one taking responsibility and there's no one to blame but themselves. So like I said, it's best to push the responsibility to the driver until it starts affecting car sales.