Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cusetownusa]

With all of this talk about how to drum up sales via advertisement etc, it got me thinking on the sales impact of more delivery and service centers. Infortunately some of it is out of teslas control (ie delivery centers in NY state)?

For central New Yorkers the nearest SC is 1.5 hours away. That is a deal breaker for many. Also, when buying, the nearest delivery center is 4hrs away (8 hrs round trip), again, a deal breaker for many. People living in western NY (Buffalo) have it even worse as the delivery center is 6-7 hours away (12-14 hours round trip).

Once it’s convneient to do test drives and make purchases, and have a nearby SC, I think sales would dramatically increase. I am assuming Tesla has some data on how this impacts sales and I would be very curious to know.

Maybe this is just a NY state issue?

 

[Singuy]

Axios didn't even make the Top 100...
So...

I like how Fox and Trump ranks worst than FTX and dead last, but no CNN or MSNBC....so are they picking and choosing who is on the 100?

 

[2daMoon]

Agreed 100%, but there is a possibility that we are at that point now. Tesla have been making dramatic price cuts, and have also been offering other incentives, especially on inventory models.
I think people get too hung up on advertising being a binary thing. Sure, maybe the model Y in china doesnt need ads right now, but maybe the model 3 long range needs ads in Europe, or themodel Y performance needs ads in Canada...

There is no single global market for EVs, but a ton of little independent markets, in different geographies and price points and vehicle types. I fully expect to see Tesla advertising in a few places, for certain models,

(In fact I'd argue that without the IRA suddenly making all EVs cheaper in the US, that Tesla would already have to be advertising in the US for the 3/Y)

The price cuts are as much a part of the mission to accelerate the transition as anything else. This is Tesla taking advantage of the effect of Wright's Law reducing cost of goods along with a goal of using price to balance ever-growing production capability with the ever-growing scale for the logistics of delivery.

I expect that any ad that Tesla makes will be very effective. If ads increase demand and they are already selling all they produce, this will lead to disgruntled customers whining about the long lead times. It is a tricky business proposition.

And sure, different markets will need different strategies that will include ads. China is a great example of a place that Tesla has advertised.

Right now, in the US, Tesla doesn't need to advertise, but I do expect that we will begin to see more informational videos. I do not expect to see paid Tesla ads on TV, in print, or on MSM channels.

 

[Todd Burch]

I think it's common for companies to dial back production during tough times. This is a short-term move, and once the economy picks up again, those companies are behind the ball.

I think Tesla has wisely chosen to decrease prices and focus on production growth. When we come out on the other side of the current macro situation, Tesla will be MUCH better off and as demand increases and prices go up--total quarterly revenues will go up by a much larger number than had they scaled back during a recession.

 

[winfield100]

You know what I really want Tesla to do? How about a pretty big light up sign of every supercharger station? Not only is it helpful for drivers to find them(which is not always easy as you wonder around a gigantic mall parking lot), but also show ICE drivers that they are everywhere and it's happening!

thats what the Nav screen is for.

>20,000 miles first year in my LRMY

example:
(it's a bit tight behind the Winn-Dixie grocery store in the Florida Keys on Pine key to put a bill board for one example, and the charger pedestals are quite distinctive so hard to miss, so i demur)

 

[cliff harris]

I assume this has not been posted?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661086692667736082

New gigafcatory announcement coming (after mexico)

 

[Singuy]

thats what the Nav screen is for.
>20,000 miles first year in LRMY
(it's a bit tight behind the Winn-Dixie grocery store in the Florida Keys on Pine key to put a bill board for one example, and the charger pedestals are quite distinctive so hard to miss, so i demur)

I am 100% sure every ICE car that drives by a WAWAs has zero clue that there's a supercharger station in the back. Maybe they'll see it when they are trying to vacuum their car. These signs need to be out in the open on major roads.

"Where can I charge the car?" should never be a question someone ask about a Tesla, and yet it's a question I get 100% of the time. I should be hearing "I have been seeing supercharger stations all over town, how fast can your car charge?".

 

[Words of HABIT]

TSLA at $400 was the result of a perfect storm, trillions in covid relief funds distributed en mass, inflation at under 1.5% and Federal Funds Effective Rate of 0.1%. The only way TSLA is getting back to ATH in 2023 is if these three conditions are met again, better chance of being hit by a Ford F150 Lightning. Tesla needs to grow into its valuation. IMHO TSLA will reach its ATH only once Cybertruck deliveries (>100k) and Tesla Energy (>15% of Tesla) are clearly showing up on earnings reports, and Tesla able to support a P/E ratio of 30. My estimation is by end of 2024.

Until then not only Tesla, but the entire market, needs to get past Inflation scare. Look what happens almost every time the inflation rate significantly drops. The economy falls into a recession (grey bars). Tesla is not immune to a recession risk, and high priced luxury items are usually the first purchases to get delayed.

Governments use interest rates to tame inflation. By historic standards, current interest rates remain low. Those hoping for interest rate relief may be waiting for many years. Perhaps the rates do drop. Simply don't assume that they must drop by end of 2023. History is not on side.

Note: the two above charts have different time scales on the x axis.

 

[bruce4000]

With all of this talk about how to drum up sales via advertisement etc, it got me thinking on the sales impact of more delivery and service centers. Infortunately some of it is out of teslas control (ie delivery centers in NY state)?

For central New Yorkers the nearest SC is 1.5 hours away. That is a deal breaker for many. Also, when buying, the nearest delivery center is 4hrs away (8 hrs round trip), again, a deal breaker for many. People living in western NY (Buffalo) have it even worse as the delivery center is 6-7 hours away (12-14 hours round trip).

Once it’s convneient to do test drives and make purchases, and have a nearby SC, I think sales would dramatically increase. I am assuming Tesla has some data on how this impacts sales and I would be very curious to know.

Maybe this is just a NY state issue?

Same is true for Western MA. My son is 90 miles from a Service Center and was definitely one reason he didn’t get a Tesla. Although sounds like Tesla is now planning s SC near Springfield so hopefully getting better soon.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I assume this has not been posted?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661086692667736082

New gigafcatory announcement coming (after mexico)

 

[Rotte]

It's not a given that Elon will officially endorse DeSantis during the Twitter interview. A few days ago Elon indicated support for Tim Scott. For DeSantis this could increase viewership for his announcement, and for Elon this could increase interest in Twitter. It may also be designed by Elon to prevent DeSantis from supporting anti-EV and pro-dealership legislation in Florida.

Elon said he would interview candidates from both the left and right on Twitter spaces during his WSJ interview today. If they want to appear on Twitter spaces. And he was not supporting any specific candidate right now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661087742019731459

 

[Singuy]

View attachment 940449

I would look for somewhere with cheap labor. One key ingredient of the 25k mass produced car is cheaper labor. Tesla only looked at China as a possibility before gigaMexico.

 

[winfield100]

I am 100% sure every ICE car that drives by a WAWAs has zero clue that there's a supercharger station in the back. Maybe they'll see it when they are trying to vacuum their car. These signs need to be out in the open on major roads.

"Where can I charge the car?" should never be a question someone ask about a Tesla, and yet it's a question I get 100% of the time. I should be hearing "I have been seeing supercharger stations all over town, how fast can your car charge?".

@Singuy
this is perhaps a multi layer problem/non problem
1) right now Tesla cannot keep up with demand, so you don't want a huge groundswell of more orders
I have charged at a lot of WAWA fuel stations up and down the east coast of the US between south Florida to Buffalo, Canada border, plus lots of other places with virtually _zero_ problems finding chargers.

2) when someone asks me "where to charge?" I take them to car, sit them in passenger seat, say "where do you want to go to, far away, in the US?"
hit NAV button, say "navigate to Escondido, California" (I like "killer pizza from Mars" and "Mi Gudalajara" restaurant)
then ask, what if you detour to say, Black Hills S Dakota or Crazy Horse monument, add that,

Up pops the "charge here buttons"

once you 1 on 1 show them how easy, they are _sold_
and I tell them up to 250kw or gain over 1,000miles per hour so, enough time to find bathroom or get a snack then roll on down the road

(but it's really tight behind the Winn Dixie on Pine Key in the Florida keys for a billboard)
(but I counted 25 Tesla's on that 600+ mile trip on a whim just in the keys)

(I'm east/near Sanibel/Captive, ya know, 10 miles EAST of hurricane Ians track and ~30 miles west of hurricanr Irma's track so the universe has got my attention)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Looks like that was an opportunity to “sell the news”?!

Or perhaps this Elon interview: (always an 'short-portunity')

Gary Black on Twitter: "@elonmusk will kick off the WSJ's CEO Council Summit event in London at 2 p.m. ET by virtual appearance. Elon will talk about $TSLA, Twitter, SpaceX and more. CEO Council Summit https://t.co/12hI6Pxwy0" / Twitter​

Anybody catch the Interview? There was a brief spike in TSLA volume (987K share/min) at around the time Elon's interview was scheduled to begin:

Cheers!

 

[EVMeister]

Or perhaps this Elon interview: (always an 'short-portunity')

Gary Black on Twitter: "@elonmusk will kick off the WSJ's CEO Council Summit event in London at 2 p.m. ET by virtual appearance. Elon will talk about $TSLA, Twitter, SpaceX and more. CEO Council Summit https://t.co/12hI6Pxwy0" / Twitter​

Anybody catch the Interview?

Cheers!

If anybody wants to listen back to the interview, here's a link:

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1BRJjZqaqpgJw

 

[Singuy]

@Singuy
this is perhaps a multi layer problem/non problem
1) right now Tesla cannot keep up with demand, so you don't want a huge groundswell of more orders
I have charged at a lot of WAWA fuel stations up and down the east coast of the US between south Florida to Buffalo, Canada border, plus lots of other places with virtually _zero_ problems finding chargers.

2) when someone asks me "where to charge?" I take them to car, sit them in passenger seat, say "where do you want to go to, far away, in the US?"
hit NAV button, say "navigate to Escondido, California" (I like "killer pizza from Mars" and "Mi Gudalajara" restaurant)
then ask, what if you detour to say, Black Hills S Dakota or Crazy Horse monument, add that,

Up pops the "charge here buttons"

once you 1 on 1 show them how easy, they are _sold_
and I tell them up to 250kw or gain over 1,000miles per hour so, enough time to find bathroom or get a snack then roll on down the road

(but it's really tight behind the Winn Dixie on Pine Key in the Florida keys for a billboard)
(but I counted 25 Tesla's on that 600+ mile trip on a whim just in the keys)

(I'm east/near Sanibel/Captive, ya know, 10 miles EAST of hurricane Ians track and ~30 miles west of hurricanr Irma's track so the universe has got my attention)

See one of the major barrier to EV is a lack of charging infrastructure. The majority of people think of charging stations as gas stations and not as "only useful for road trips or people not having access to home charging". If the general public start seeing a lot of Tesla charging stations coming online, they naturally think

1. charging infrastructure is being built out at an insane speed
2. hey look there's one near my work/house/friend's house/my favorite restaurant
3. looks like transitioning to EV is serious and not just for tree huggers and hipsters

Most people are not the type who goes up and ask questions but secretly form their own conclusion about the world. This is why Tesla supercharger light up signs everywhere get people to start drawing conclusions on their own.

There's still a war going on between Icers and EV buyers. EV buyers think people who pay for ICE today is stupid while ICE buyers think people who buy EVs are stupid. This is why EV owners want Tesla to do more education. Herd mentality dictates that the more people see change, the more change looks normal, the more they are willing to be part of the herd.

Just remember every gas station you see is an advertisement for ICE cars. It's a reminder how robust that infrastructure is.

 

[EldestOyster]

You know what I really want Tesla to do? How about a pretty big light up sign of every supercharger station? Not only is it helpful for drivers to find them(which is not always easy as you wonder around a gigantic mall parking lot), but also show ICE drivers that they are everywhere and it's happening!

Yes, and they should make them tall, like a spaceship. Give it a shape everyone will easily recognize.

/s

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I am 100% sure every ICE car that drives by a WAWAs has zero clue that there's a supercharger station in the back. Maybe they'll see it when they are trying to vacuum their car. These signs need to be out in the open on major roads.

"Where can I charge the car?" should never be a question someone ask about a Tesla, and yet it's a question I get 100% of the time. I should be hearing "I have been seeing supercharger stations all over town, how fast can your car charge?".

It's just the nature of gas stations being for fast filling gas that prime space is at the front and the parking is at the side or back so you can walk safely to/from the convenience store.

Grocery store chargers can be more much obvious because the subprime parking is closer to the highway. For example here in Central Maine, the Waterville Superchargers are very close to the passing road, so don't need signage, while the Augusta Supercharger is up a hill at the top end of a mall so would would need a sign at the mall entrance.

Paying for visible Supercharger signage where it's not obvious could certainly be a reasonable place to spend marketing money. The risk is letting the haters know where they are.

 

[winfield100]

See one of the major barrier to EV is a lack of charging infrastructure. The majority of people think of charging stations as gas stations and not as "only useful for road trips or people not having access to home charging". If the general public start seeing a lot of Tesla charging stations coming online, they naturally think

1. charging infrastructure is being built out at an insane speed
2. hey look there's one near my work/house/friend's house/my favorite restaurant
3. looks like transitioning to EV is serious and not just for tree huggers and hipsters

Most people are not the type who goes up and ask questions but secretly form their own conclusion about the world. This is why Tesla supercharger light up signs everywhere get people to start drawing conclusions on their own.

There's still a war going on between Icers and EV buyers. EV buyers think people who pay for ICE today is stupid while ICE buyers think people who buy EVs are stupid. This is why EV owners want Tesla to do more education. Herd mentality dictates that the more people see change, the more change looks normal, the more they are willing to be part of the herd.

i'm probably guilty of excess hubris, experience and knowledge so have trouble comprehending others lack of same.
I have a _lot_ of holes in my knowledge and experience, but i literally went for a ride/drove an ElCar about 50 years ago, 36v, shaped like a big cube, plastic, slow, etc, on a Fiat 500 chassis we were told, had a CitiCar (shaped like a blue cheese wedge)(but hey, 48v and used switches and relays and humungous heat resistor sink and charged at 120v and a Kewit, bit newer and better. (4, D8 175 pound PbA batteries)(killed a few)

been thru the range anxiety phase a few times and watched field mature over last 50 years, mostly from a distance but also as member of EVADC since sometime in the 80's

(seriously, if you charge at 120v, _completely _uncoil_ the extension cord or it will get HOT enough to melt into the asphalt it's siting upon)

I agree about the war between ICE and EV, there were a few spaces ICE'd at a number of chargers for no apparent reason, and I have been told by my BIL that EV's "burst into spontaneous flame"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just more proof that “they” manipulate the stock with negative headlines. This time they made a mistake and posted the article when the SP wears still green, BEFORE the actual event happened. Hmmmm, kind of like they already knew it would.

Today was Day 3 w. TSLA above the Upper-BB. It always happens that shortzes/hedgies will appear to sell it back down, 'cuz dey shortzes... and MAGICALLY closed just below the Upper-BB on no news. (downer!)