JRP3
Hyperactive Member
100% render, driver side A pillar is a mess on a large screen.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
FSDtester#1
Craves Electrolytes
Been out of the country for 5 days, nice to see 15% in the green.
I won't even try to read 22 pages... just let me know if anyone died or was fired, or highland was released. Thanks in advance
!
Edit: I could read those pages but would bill the mods my hourly rate.
Most of them don't like me, so I probably wouldn't get paid
.
I won't even try to read 22 pages... just let me know if anyone died or was fired, or highland was released. Thanks in advance
!Edit: I could read those pages but would bill the mods my hourly rate.
Most of them don't like me, so I probably wouldn't get paid
.
I’m just hoping they have the full stack working well enough they can replace the autopilot code with it for non-Beta/ non-FSD users.
That feathers and beak included? Now that would be gross.A hat might be too much, but I'll eat something gross. I do have a whole canned chicken I've been saving for a special occasion...
Places that serve Dim Sum often serve jellied chicken feet.
No offense to those who enjoy them... but most westerners think they are revolting.
No. However, there was a fascinating debate about waste heat; highly recommended reading. /sI won't even try to read 22 pages... just let me know if anyone died or was fired, or highland was released. Thanks in advance
Highly doubtful. While it is pretty good, and way better than old releases I wouldn't call it smooth just yet. (My insurance app still dings it a lot for hard braking.)
But I did have it drive me to the beach and back, ~200 miles, with only one disengagement. (I didn't count interventions for speeding up a little, or lane changes I wanted for things like passing other vehicles.)
So I have been in a much better mood with TSLA rallying this week, with that said I wanted to write a little about why I am more cautious in this market than even a few months ago. I happen to have come into a medium size windfall, and my wife and I were discussing what to do with the cash. Given this rally my greedy side wants to plow it into TSLA, but I have been thinking for the first time in my life maybe sit on too much cash for a while. Here is why....
1. Assuming the Senate passes the debt ceiling bill we are going to have an interesting situation here. The US treasury has run its general account down to less than 40Bn. Typically the average is around 400Bn in cash at any given time. This debt ceiling bill will grant the treasury an unlimited borrowing capacity until late '24 early '25. So over the next 6mo to 1 year I expect the treasury to run its general account to more than 1Tn in preparation for the next debt ceiling embarrassment. Given the UST will be minting many, many, many, new bonds the yields will likely head north as they unload that much paper. Given liquidity is somewhat tight in the market I expect this to act as a drain on the general market as the fed offers a "risk free" return of 5% or higher. I imagine this will likely take the wind out of the sails of the equities markets for a little while as 500B-1T moves around. It's possible this funding comes more from the feds reverse repo operations but we will see.
2. Student Loan repayments are scheduled to start up again in August. This is a 1.8Tn market that was on hold for 3 years. There are loads of people that have gotten used to having $100's if not $1k's of dollars a month that will go back to the government.
3. Auto Lending seems to be tightening. I am on the fence on what to think about the auto market. On one hand most cars seem wildly expensive today, but on the other hand the US alone didn't produce more then 15M cars in the last 3 years that would be coming off lease/propping up the used market. But then again none of this matters if banks won't lend. The vast majority of auto buyers in the states shop payments...not principle. So if lending slows/crashes prices have to fall.
I am hopeful TSLA will move up regardless of these three issues, but I feel like the real recession we have all been waiting for seems ready to hit the shores. Who knows maybe the us consumer is far more resilient than I believe, but something has to give.
1. Assuming the Senate passes the debt ceiling bill we are going to have an interesting situation here. The US treasury has run its general account down to less than 40Bn. Typically the average is around 400Bn in cash at any given time. This debt ceiling bill will grant the treasury an unlimited borrowing capacity until late '24 early '25. So over the next 6mo to 1 year I expect the treasury to run its general account to more than 1Tn in preparation for the next debt ceiling embarrassment. Given the UST will be minting many, many, many, new bonds the yields will likely head north as they unload that much paper. Given liquidity is somewhat tight in the market I expect this to act as a drain on the general market as the fed offers a "risk free" return of 5% or higher. I imagine this will likely take the wind out of the sails of the equities markets for a little while as 500B-1T moves around. It's possible this funding comes more from the feds reverse repo operations but we will see.
2. Student Loan repayments are scheduled to start up again in August. This is a 1.8Tn market that was on hold for 3 years. There are loads of people that have gotten used to having $100's if not $1k's of dollars a month that will go back to the government.
3. Auto Lending seems to be tightening. I am on the fence on what to think about the auto market. On one hand most cars seem wildly expensive today, but on the other hand the US alone didn't produce more then 15M cars in the last 3 years that would be coming off lease/propping up the used market. But then again none of this matters if banks won't lend. The vast majority of auto buyers in the states shop payments...not principle. So if lending slows/crashes prices have to fall.
I am hopeful TSLA will move up regardless of these three issues, but I feel like the real recession we have all been waiting for seems ready to hit the shores. Who knows maybe the us consumer is far more resilient than I believe, but something has to give.
GhostSkater
Member
Just a (literal) shower though I wanna share with you guys and see what the opinion is
Tesla has been banging on the Tesla (pure) Vision for quite a while, like it’s the second coming of Christ, and even when a lot of HD radar leaks they still keep at it. All that comes from their mouth points out that vision is all they intend to work with for the foreseeable future
Now HW4 deliveries started, and everything so far points that S/X have the HD radar, and 3/Y does not, and that doesn’t make sense if HD radar is needed or they foresee it might be needed
Now it comes the breakthrough, what if Tesla realized they need a ton of data from forward cameras to improve obstacle/vehicles/etc detection, but to do that they need data gathered with ground truth, or at least from a second high definition source, in a scale bigger than their own validation fleet, but also they don’t need in insanely huge volume of data? How to you find a middle ground?
You put the expensive HD radar on your lower volume vehicles, S/X, with the sole purpose of gathering data for training. The cost impact isn’t that huge since those vehicles are sold at a much higher price point, and it could be too much to put on 3/Y, specially with the price drops
I couldn’t find, but with Munro estimating removing USS saves $100 per car, which is a widely used sensor in the automotive industry, I would say the HD radar + wire harness + installation/factory cost is above that, maybe quite a bit over
Tesla has been banging on the Tesla (pure) Vision for quite a while, like it’s the second coming of Christ, and even when a lot of HD radar leaks they still keep at it. All that comes from their mouth points out that vision is all they intend to work with for the foreseeable future
Now HW4 deliveries started, and everything so far points that S/X have the HD radar, and 3/Y does not, and that doesn’t make sense if HD radar is needed or they foresee it might be needed
Now it comes the breakthrough, what if Tesla realized they need a ton of data from forward cameras to improve obstacle/vehicles/etc detection, but to do that they need data gathered with ground truth, or at least from a second high definition source, in a scale bigger than their own validation fleet, but also they don’t need in insanely huge volume of data? How to you find a middle ground?
You put the expensive HD radar on your lower volume vehicles, S/X, with the sole purpose of gathering data for training. The cost impact isn’t that huge since those vehicles are sold at a much higher price point, and it could be too much to put on 3/Y, specially with the price drops
I couldn’t find, but with Munro estimating removing USS saves $100 per car, which is a widely used sensor in the automotive industry, I would say the HD radar + wire harness + installation/factory cost is above that, maybe quite a bit over
Senate passed the debt limit deal, if anyone cares 
www.cnn.com
June 1, 2023 Senate passes US debt ceiling bill
The US Senate passed the debt limit bill Thursday night, averting a US default. The bill will now be sent to President Joe Biden to be signed into law.
Yes indeed. FWIW, I liquidated most of my growth stock portfolio in the past week (kept all my TSLA and a few others), and stuffed that money into a 6 month TBill. There will be a short lived rally based on the debt ceiling being passed, but I expect stormy weather after that. Now isn’t the time to be buying growth stocks IMHO.
Disclaimer: I know almost little to nothing about LLM's.
With that said, the moat-less fervor of LLM's really has me worried about the entire tech sector (sans clean tech + digital health)...and as the tech sector has been the aspect of the S&P 500 that's done the most well over the past 3-4 years to generate such growth in the S&P 500...
...
...I do wonder where the money is going to slosh around in when AI/LLM tech takes off even further (whether it's the tech sector and AI/LLM tech wins out due to who has the most data...or AI/LLM gets significantly regulated and completely nullified as a market quickly). Weird times. Weird year.
Choose your own narrative:
Bears (& Troy Teslike): Demand problems in China cause Tesla to export to Canadia!
Bulls: Demand in North America so great Giga Texas and Fremont cannot product enough cars to meet demand in Canadia!
Bears (& Troy Teslike): Demand problems in China cause Tesla to export to Canadia!
Bulls: Demand in North America so great Giga Texas and Fremont cannot product enough cars to meet demand in Canadia!
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Reminder that max pain is $173 with a call wall at $200 on triple witching half year summer sale potion brewing day in 2 weeks. MMs and shorts remain formidable and won't give up without a fight.
P&D coming in 1 month. If D is >P then
. Otherwise, we may need to wait another quarter (or two 
) for Cybertruck TAM big bang cause a car ain't real until people get a D...
Like Shiv, Kendall and Roman, I am not a serious person. Never knowingly bearish.
P&D coming in 1 month. If D is >P then
. Otherwise, we may need to wait another quarter (or two ) for Cybertruck TAM big bang cause a car ain't real until people get a D...Like Shiv, Kendall and Roman, I am not a serious person. Never knowingly bearish.
JusRelax
Active Member
Guys, I've got good news. Google Bard is projecting TSLA's PE ratio to expand to ~500 by end of 2027. If Bard is right, all I see is $$$$$$$$$$:
Then again, I've been hearing from multiple sources that Google's Bard is an idiot.
Then again, I've been hearing from multiple sources that Google's Bard is an idiot.
Reminder that max pain is $173 with a call wall at $200 on triple witching half year summer sale potion brewing day in 2 weeks. MMs and shorts remain formidable and won't give up without a fight.
P&D coming in 1 month. If D is >P then
Like Shiv, Kendall and Roman, I am not a serious person. Never knowingly bearish.
Periodic reminder: Max pain on options expiration is a magnet: the further away the share price is from it, the less pull it has.
Yes. After Model X RHD got cancelled, I asked Bard what are the 7 seater EVs on sale in Australia. It gave nonsense answers, including EVs that don’t even exist, like Kia Carnival EV
Very interesting article in Benzinga on ChatGPT:
ChatGPT is fabricating information.
Tl;dr:
- Research shows ChatGPT is capable of not only fabricated citations, but whole articles and bylines that never existed;
- This propensity, known as “hallucination”, is now seen as a significant threat to the integrity of information.
Link to the Benzinga article with a short reference in it to Tesla's AI ("hallucination" also a problem for Tesla?):
"There is no evidence to suggest that Tesla vehicles as they are constructed now are a danger to society."
ChatGPT is fabricating information.
Tl;dr:
- Research shows ChatGPT is capable of not only fabricated citations, but whole articles and bylines that never existed;
- This propensity, known as “hallucination”, is now seen as a significant threat to the integrity of information.
Link to the Benzinga article with a short reference in it to Tesla's AI ("hallucination" also a problem for Tesla?):
"There is no evidence to suggest that Tesla vehicles as they are constructed now are a danger to society."
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