Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

Is it possible to get data on grey imports? Wonder how many Teslas there is, there is also at least two Rivians and one Whal...Hummer EV

The easiest to use source is:

Frota de Carros Elétricos no Brasil | NeoCharge

Veja a quantidade de carros elétricos no Brasil, além de VE separados por tipo, localização geográfica e ranking de fabricantes em um único lugar. Clique aqui.

www.neocharge.com.br

This does use Denetran data so it is based on actual registrations, not sales or whether grey or otherwise, and allows searching for pure electric too, but there are a handful of obviously erroneous entries, such as Ferrari and Daimler, although even those could be BEV conversions. It is fun to note the Three Rivians and those Rivas somebody brought from India.
It currently shows 238 Tesla, all of which are, by definition, grey.

 

[mongo]

You can sell a 60kWh car with a 40kWh buffer. Everybody has been selling cars with a bit of buffer. Which law controls/addreses the size of the buffer in your car?

Owners can elect to reduce the size of their battery buffer with a software change.

Oh, Tesla can sell a 60kWh car with 40kWh usable, that's fine. The issue is if Tesla also sells an option to unlock that 40kWh, it becomes an option physically attached to the vehicle from the factory and invalidates the low MSRP.
Basically, the wording is there to close that loophole.

 

[betstarship]

Interesting, Tesla and apple are two most under owned stocks by institutional.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691800680623735000

This time two years ago, in 2021, we were all very happy with the results of TSLA. In 2023, I read a sense of frustration, despair, and laughter on this forum.

It's basically the same price point in mid-August 2021 and mid-August 2023.

In the first 2 quarters of 2021...leading in to mid-August 2021...$22.4B in revenue. In 2023? $48.2B.

Net income in mid-August 2021 from the first 2 quarters? $1.58B. In 2023? $5.22B.

That's more than 2x the revenue! That's more than 3x the net income! What's changed?

 

[insaneoctane]

Buy more now?

 

[unk45]

Importing from Shanghai is the obvious starting point. Importing from Mexico later could make sense as well.

Brazil itself is market with total sales 25% larger than the UK, but lower value, and it's a much larger country than the UK requiring more infrastructure. So, I don't see it as a big deal in itself. But manufacturing in Brazil could make sense as a base for Brazil and Mercosul/Mercosur as of now.

A big question would be whether the EU and Mercosul/Mercosur can complete a trade deal, or Mexico and the EU. There are stumbling blocks. If Mercosur gets a deal, but Mexico doesn't then potentially Brazil could become a base for some wider export, with Mexico more focused on North America and Japan/Korea.

Of course, there's also India, which as well as a potential market, is a potential base for RHD markets. There are developing RHD countries with substantial populations especially in Asia and East and Southern Africa.

This post really accentuates how crucial trade agreements are in locating suppliers, production and sales. That in turn explains how fraught the subject is because Tesla, thus far, has been a gigantic force wherever they land and up-end markets for every competitor. The consequence is that the established ICE OEM's and suppliers generally are tending to oppose Tesla. China is quite different because the entire industry there is rapidly adopted BEV's.

Since urban and municipal fleets are often responsive to operating costs they're really at the forefront of BEV adoption in much of the world. That suggests that Tesla ease of adoption might well be in places such as Santiago de Chile, already with a huge fleet of BEV busses, despite the overall Chile market quite small.

We also might consider that in many palaces electrical utilities are rapidly adopting renewables because they are cheaper than fossil fuels. Tesla Energy has global opportunity to open markets that way, as well as establishing BEV charging/Virtual Power Plant solutions.

Thus far we've mostly seen Tesla as "build a factory and they'll come" for cars. The present world is rapidly becoming renewable energy focussed, suggesting Tesla might concentrate on energy supply more than energy use.

Were that to be a wise decision our concept of TSLA would suddenly be vastly different.
JB Straubel talked about that a decade ago, and Elon keeps repeating it (when he's not obsessing about robotaxi). Personally, I am already thinking that way.

I'm still a car fan, but reminiscing about my 1990 completely solar-powered island, massive power outages and fossil fuel help me retain a more rational perspective.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Buy more now?

Why not, i mean it's a discount right? right?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Why not, i mean it's a discount right? right?

Not going to do it this time... need cash for the Great-Great Depression (or 215, which ever comes first).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Pretty humorous how the dynamic around FSD and whatever Elon says about it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691678431740616785

Seen hardly any mention of this because well, no one believes V12 will actually be shown next week.

...Including me lol

Of course, one of these days Elon will actually come through and show off/release something that actually lives up to the hype leading to a massive re-evaluation of Tesla's marketcap.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Not going to do it this time... need cash for the Great-Great Depression (or 215, which ever comes first).

So...2 weeks?

 

[Drumheller]

Pretty humorous how the dynamic around FSD and whatever Elon says about it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691678431740616785

Seen hardly any mention of this because well, no one believes V12 will actually be shown next week.

...Including me lol

Of course, one of these days Elon will actually come through and show off/release something that actually lives up to the hype leading to a massive re-evaluation of Tesla's

It will iterate and gradually improve, i dont think there will be some massive change in one release. I think it would be better to let it speak for itself than continue hyping it, but at least Elon actually tweeted something about Tesla again. Plenty of people disappointed that features have been removed from vehicles over time in anticipation of FSD adding those features "soon" and people are still waiting. I couldn't find it in a search but I think I made a post in 2018 where I stated I didn't think FSD would be at the point of sleeping in the car safely until at least 2025. I still hold that opinion and think that is early but most likely a bit later, maybe 2027.

I also think your theory on Q3 / Q4 timing holds water. Elon / Tesla announced the one time transfer of FSD to owners only if you take ownership of a new vehicle in Q3. The cybertuck is targeted for end of Q3, my guess would be last day of Q3 or 1st day of Q4. I think it likely that Highland doesn't start selling until Q4. So, 6 more weeks of waiting.

 

[SOULPEDL]

So...2 weeks?

At 2% drop per day, 2-weeks drops it 28 bringing us to 200 SP? No way Jose.
So obviously by next week.

 

[GhostSkater]

The easiest to use source is:

Frota de Carros Elétricos no Brasil | NeoCharge

Veja a quantidade de carros elétricos no Brasil, além de VE separados por tipo, localização geográfica e ranking de fabricantes em um único lugar. Clique aqui.

www.neocharge.com.br

This does use Denetran data so it is based on actual registrations, not sales or whether grey or otherwise, and allows searching for pure electric too, but there are a handful of obviously erroneous entries, such as Ferrari and Daimler, although even those could be BEV conversions. It is fun to note the Three Rivians and those Rivas somebody brought from India.
It currently shows 238 Tesla, all of which are, by definition, grey.

Thanks

Paint a bad picture for the EV market here, the most sold brand that has official presence here, with dealers, warranty and all that, only sold 10X of what Tesla unofficially sold

Elon, come to Brazil

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691817452403827033

Not sure this has been discussed enough. Will Tesla get to gobble them up? How many in 2024? Introduce on performance MY and M3 versions?

 

[snellenr]

Oh, Tesla can sell a 60kWh car with 40kWh usable, that's fine. The issue is if Tesla also sells an option to unlock that 40kWh, it becomes an option physically attached to the vehicle from the factory and invalidates the low MSRP.
Basically, the wording is there to close that loophole.

What does that "unlockable" but otherwise unused 20 (or 40) kWh capacity weigh, and why am I dragging it around unnecessarily?

 

[navguy12]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691817452403827033

Not sure this has been discussed enough. Will Tesla get to gobble them up? How many in 2024? Introduce on performance MY and M3 versions?

I don’t have enough time as it is for a bio break and a bite of lunch when I stop at a supercharger.

 

[Nocturnal]

What does that "unlockable" but otherwise unused 20 (or 40) kWh capacity weigh, and why am I dragging it around unnecessarily?

Because we have a short term demand issue with S/X and it's cheaper for Tesla to nerf them with software than to build new packs.

 

[Electroman]

Because we have a short term demand issue with S/X and it's cheaper for Tesla to nerf them with software than to build new packs.

Instead as someone suggested they could have reduced the price by $7k and given the full range instead of nerfing it.

 

[Tony73]

The

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691817452403827033

Not sure this has been discussed enough. Will Tesla get to gobble them up? How many in 2024? Introduce on performance MY and M3 versions?

248 miles in 10 minutes is great but it would nice to also know the SOCs involved.
That would make it clear and unambiguous

 

[EQC_]

What does that "unlockable" but otherwise unused 20 (or 40) kWh capacity weigh, and why am I dragging it around unnecessarily?

Always many ways to look at things...

• You can say, glass half empty: "I'm lugging around all this battery weight but only allowed to use 80% of it!"
• Or, glass half full: "I paid $10K less for the same car...I just accelerate a little less quickly and don't have access to the full battery, but probably wouldn't have used the full battery range anyway."

The option to pay less will make sense for some people...and it won't for others. No harm for the consumer to have more options...

The wording choice you used is also a little tricky, since a software locked battery wouldn't be disabling 200 lbs of cells...it is just restricting all the cells from reaching 100% charge or draining down to 0%. So, perhaps removing 20% of the potential usefulness of 1000 lbs of cells. So the price difference and the consumer decision should be on how useful that extra 20% would be fore an individual.

And, to be fair, for most of the battery chemistries, isn't charging to 80% for daily use typical? And I'd bet few folks regularly drain down below 20%. So, in a way, most EV drivers are already dragging around a whole battery but normally only using 60% of it....they just have the option to use it if they need it.

 

[2daMoon]

This link is to the type of content that should never be posted in the investment forum.



This, on the other hand, is a better example of Investor-related content.

Hit That Bid briefly waxes upon the end of Summer, return from the Hamptons, and what may affect TSLA performance through the rest of the year.