BYD up 67% YoY on BEV only: https://carnewschina.com/2023/10/02/byd-delivered-a-record-breaking-287454-evs-in-september/
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It's an open question as to how aggressive Tesla will be in pursuing its L2 charging network. If Tesla is going to build a super-affordable Gen 3 vehicle then that means a lot more apartment dwellers will need charging. Only Tesla could build out the L2 network fast enough to keep up with demand. Of course, that assumes the Gen 3 vehicle is sold to the public.
So let's assume that Tesla believes its L2 charging network is important for the mission. The number of EVs on the road will grow exponentially as expected. Tesla will need become very aggressive in rolling out its L2 network.
Then the next open question is how aggressive Tesla will be in pursuing profit from its L2 charging network. At first I think Tesla will try to just break even and go for market share. But break-even will still require a significant cut of the revenue as Tesla will need to quickly ramp production of chargers and hire a lot of people to manage the network.
After the L2 network is established and the ramp phase is over, revenue will start to massively dwarf expenses.
To give you all an idea of the revenue opportunity, just look at ChargePoint. They mostly concentrate on the L2 network. Their revenue comes from hardware sales, network subscriptions, and maintenance contracts. They don't take a cut of the electricity delivered. Their annual revenue is already $600 million and they are tiny compared to where this market is going.
Tesla is going to be standing in front of a huge flood of money.
cliff harris
Member
Yup the unchanged target is VERY interesting. I suspect they are pretty confident that the downtime was worth it for a higher future throughput. If they can have downtime and hit 1.8, then that means very good things in 2024.
Pre-market:
$240.65
(3.82%)-9.57
Closed: Oct 2, 9:10:00 AM UTC-4 · USD · NASDAQ
Time to buy!
This is where Elon postulating about POSSIBLY hitting 2M in that earlier earnings call hurts....just sandbag a bit Elon. C'mon, YOU CAN DO IT! :>
Was that 1.8 million production or delivery?
Adding up production from all the 2023 P&D reports, I get that Tesla only needs to produce about 449,000 in Q4 to hit 1.8 million. Should be a cake walk.
Have I miscalculated?
Adding up production from all the 2023 P&D reports, I get that Tesla only needs to produce about 449,000 in Q4 to hit 1.8 million. Should be a cake walk.
Have I miscalculated?
Ouch, that's even below Q1 P&D. The market won't like that at all, although the continued guidance for 1.8 million this year suggests Tesla expects a record high P&D in Q4. This means the shutdown time in Q3 was likely very worth it.
Buying opportunity?
jkirkwood001
Active Member
Thanks Dodger, agreed.Well, conventional thinking might apply Wright's Law in this situation, and predict that renewables will decrease in price by ~17% for every doubling in deployment of any particular energy technology. I however am not conventional in that respect, I am an advocate of "Information Theory".
To wit, last week I conducted a 2,700km round trip to visit family here in Canada. Total cost for charging? Zero. That's right, four L3 and seven L2 charging (3 full + 4 partial) sessions, all on free public chargers. But was it actually free? Clearly not! Indeed, I pay $14 Cdn per month for my Tesla's "Premium Connectivity" service giving access to certain public websites. Did I trade time for money? Sure, but then with Tesla "Camp Mode", I wouldn't actually have saved much travel time (perhaps 2 hrs total). And 2.7K kms in 99 hrs is still a pretty brisk pace INCLUDING visiting family.
So, "information" has become the new "fuel" in the24½th21st Century. Like renewables, information too becomes more abundant, hence less expensive, over time.
Cheers!
And excuse the typo in my original post, I meant to say "[L2 charging] is one of the worst of Tesla's TAMs, IMHO." (Total Addressable Market).
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
What's odd to me is Q1 and Q2 total production was 30k vehicles higher than deliveries... but in Q3 with reduced production deliveries were only 5k higher than production.
I was expecting a larger inventory drawdown than that with the reduced production.
I was expecting a larger inventory drawdown than that with the reduced production.
I'd fully expect there to be record deliveries in Q4, question is what will be required to achieve that in terms of pricing power. But the units will move, I have little doubt of that.
If interest rates don't come down next year, what will be required to move 2.3-2.4million vehicles? I genuinely don't know how people expect this to go.
If interest rates don't come down next year, what will be required to move 2.3-2.4million vehicles? I genuinely don't know how people expect this to go.
At worst, it's subtle advertising.
At least we know production has definitively NOT started for the Cybertruck. Everything a release candidate, etc. Model S/X sales disappointing (esp considering price cut).
I assumed it was deliveries. If so they need to deliver 476,000 in Q4. That's 10,000 more than Q2, which is certainly achievable
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Looks like Troy's streak of accurate delivery estimates continues. Not sure why some here get so hung up on the adjustments he makes throughout the quarter/s. Every good analyst does that.
Drumheller
Active Member
The plaid is a steal at 90,000 in the USA, but it is still a 90,000 dollar vehicle in a time when the economy is failing.
S/X production and sales absolutely terrible considering the price cuts. There is not "production - constrained" excuse here. Production levels are way below capacity already.
I'm estimating ~ $0.7 EPS for the quarter. Annualized this is $2.8 EPS, meaning Tesla is at a current PE ratio of 85 with low earnings growth. Sadly that is not sustainable and the stock will be going down in the short term.
Calls for $350 share price this year are laughable. 2024 earnings estimates are going to get revised down further until analysts can see some light at the end of the tunnel? When will that be? It isn't going to be this year with interest rates staying high and Musk turning off more potential customers with tone-def tweets.
I am still hoping for a rebound in share price to sustainably go above $300 mid 2024, but consumer weakness is really hurting earnings more than I thought. FSD isn't ready to push margins up significantly. Megapack is really the only thing left of hope.
I'm estimating ~ $0.7 EPS for the quarter. Annualized this is $2.8 EPS, meaning Tesla is at a current PE ratio of 85 with low earnings growth. Sadly that is not sustainable and the stock will be going down in the short term.
Calls for $350 share price this year are laughable. 2024 earnings estimates are going to get revised down further until analysts can see some light at the end of the tunnel? When will that be? It isn't going to be this year with interest rates staying high and Musk turning off more potential customers with tone-def tweets.
I am still hoping for a rebound in share price to sustainably go above $300 mid 2024, but consumer weakness is really hurting earnings more than I thought. FSD isn't ready to push margins up significantly. Megapack is really the only thing left of hope.
The factories restarted far enough from the end of the quarter to mostly refill the shipping pipeline. Shanghai had at least 3 ships outbound at EoQ.
Shutdown
Drain pipeline (16 day drawdown)
End of deliveries
Restart
Refill pipeline (15 day refill @ Q2 delivery rate*)
End result is deliveries and production both take a similar drop
Had the restart happened closer to the end, P vs D would have a larger delta
*Q3 days of inventory will be around 22.
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