Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1716777392746717508

 

[H Mak]

GM withdraws EV guidance.

So the competition isn't coming. The competition is giving up

 

[Knightshade]

There's some funny quotes in the story including they'd be pushing back on the Biden administration about fuel economy standards they (GM) don't want raised-- but the QUIET PART OUT LOUD bit is:

GM said profits for the quarter were pulled down by $1.5 billion because of higher costs and the impact of selling more EVs

Selling more EVs just loses them more money they can't afford to lose. They're not gonna scale any of the "20+ EVs" they've been promising for 5-6 years now- and never really intended to.

Course going back to the fuel economy thing assuming they don't get em rolled back I guess we can expect that big-part-of-earnings on Tesla selling credits to stick around a lot longer.

 

[Usain]

SMR covers a Tony Seba presentation about Technological Disruption and the broader Phase Change brought by intersecting simultaneous disruptions, into which Tesla has led the world.

I'm guessing that SMR is reacting to this recent video?

It's interesting that SMR's video is about the same length as the thing he's reacting to. So it's probably not even a good summary.

IMO, it's far better to just watch Tony Seba.

 

[Usain]

So the competition isn't coming. The competition is giving up

It appears that you are right and it is really sad. If the competition truly gives up on EVs for the US market, I don't think it will be good for Tesla.

Just yesterday, Mike Pence came out against EVs using the same talking points as Trump. If anti-EV sentiment becomes a strong part of Republican orthodoxy then it could drastically harm EV adoption in the US. We could see anti-EV legislation in Red states and maybe even in some Blue states.

This is a serious risk.

 

[lascavarian]

So the competition isn't coming. The competition is giving up

My view. Traditional auto are not disrupters. They can do prototypes but their heart is genuinely trapped in traditions. It’s not just them but also their customers. Tradition is not always comfortable but it is understandable.

Buying ICE is a reassurance and that reassurance runs deep. It’s not wrong except for its misapplication of the future we face.

Traditional auto will come along when a perfected battery is dropped into their lap. Others will build out the charging structure and the necessary energy distribution system.

I think the 4680 is essentially done. The 4680 is the conestoga wagon that was needed to settle the American frontier. It is just about scale now. Scale and a little time. YMMV

 

[Bobfitz1]

One of the easiest jobs Optimus can handle is security. Allied universal is the 3rd largest employer behind Walmart (#1) and Amazon (#2) in the United States. Observe and report with relatively simple manipulations of the environment necessary. The TAM for Optimus is enormous and I cannot wait for them to start rolling these out of what should be called The Exafactory.

They'd have to bulk Optimus up a bit....but yes, I can see that working.

 

[hobbes]

There was a hearing on the expansion of Giga Berlin yesterday where locals and environmental groups could voice their concerns and discuss with Tesla and the state environmental protection agency. The environmental groups boycotted and it seems not many locals showed up any more, unlike when the first phase which is operating now was being discussed. Sounds like the state will likely approve the expansion:

Tesla-Kritiker boykottieren Anhörung zu Fabrik-Ausbau

Mehr als 1000 Einwände gab es gegen die geplante Erweiterung des Tesla-Werks. Doch zur Anhörung erschien am Montag kaum ein Kritiker. Wegen des Boykotts blieb die Riesenhalle leer.

www-bz--berlin-de.translate.goog

 

[scaesare]

almost every earnings call he likes to state his belief that Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world.

However, he's also said after an earnings call:

"Really, the problem is like people get too focused on like what's happening in the space of a few weeks or a few months," Musk said during a tense call with analysts. "This is -- maximum of investing should not be focused on short-term things. You should be focused on long-term things."


"We have no interest in satisfying the desires of day traders, like we couldn't care less," he insisted. "Please sell our stock and don't buy it."

 

[scaesare]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1716556240908681538

Man, provided it's sufficiently reinforced, that smooth underbody will be nice for off-roading...

 

[Usain]

One of the easiest jobs Optimus can handle is security. Allied universal is the 3rd largest employer behind Walmart (#1) and Amazon (#2) in the United States. Observe and report with relatively simple manipulations of the environment necessary. The TAM for Optimus is enormous and I cannot wait for them to start rolling these out of what should be called The Exafactory.

If "Security Guard" is a good fit for Optimus I'd like to know more about what a security guard actually does. If the job is just to walk around and report anything suspicious, it seems to me that fixed cameras and a neural net could handle that better than Optimus.

What part of the job would Optimus replace?

 

[Maarten]

Interview with competitor’s CEO of BYD.

Interesting read, like for example how things are working in China:
"We will only participate in some cities, but cannot in many other cities. We are not even included in the discussions. Every city has a new-energy-vehicle promotion office. Only with their approval can we join the meeting and have the opportunity to get involved in the construction. Cities have promised to reduce local protectionism, but it will take time."

 

[scaesare]

Towing with EV’s is just not going to be great no matter how it is spun. What it will do at some point 6-8 years out is force the more widespread use of use of ever more aerodynamic trailers for various uses. It’s inevitable. You also will see some partial solutions for things like boats, i.e. fairings on the trailers. The time when people could just act like aerodynamics don’t matter with vehicles is coming to an end, and there will be a LOT of changes that will seem like duh things. I really like the RIvian, but the shape of it is basically for marketing. There is no reason the front of the truck had to be shaped like conventional pickups, except to make acceptance easier for a wider group of buyers. Like all conventional PU’s the thing is an aerodynamic joke.

I'll also be interested in seeing if/when solutions for addressing the gap between tow vehicle and load arrive... that gap incurs a significant portion of the additional aero load when pulling a trailer...

The Tesla Semi was originally shown with side spoilers hugging the trailer to eliminate/reduce that gap. That, along with the super-single tires and the aero wheel hub covers seem to have disappeared on the semi's so far...

 

[jerry33]

If "Security Guard" is a good fit for Optimus I'd like to know more about what a security guard actually does. If the job is just to walk around and report anything suspicious, it seems to me that fixed cameras and a neural net could handle that better than Optimus.

What part of the job would Optimus replace?

Cameras wouldn't have the random coverage, and because they are in a fixed location, they can be defeated. Optimus, set on a random pattern, plus cameras would make it just about impossible to commit a crime without getting caught. Also Optimus, properly trained, would be able to spot suspicious activity.

 

[FastEddieB]

If "Security Guard" is a good fit for Optimus I'd like to know more about what a security guard actually does. If the job is just to walk around and report anything suspicious, it seems to me that fixed cameras and a neural net could handle that better than Optimus.

Hell, I say just go ahead and give it a gun. WI mean, what could possibly go wrong???

 

[jerry33]

I'll also be interested in seeing if/when solutions for addressing the gap between tow vehicle and load arrive... that gap incurs a significant portion of the additional aero load when pulling a trailer...

The Tesla Semi was originally shown with side spoilers hugging the trailer to eliminate/reduce that gap. That, along with the super-single tires and the aero wheel hub covers seem to have disappeared on the semi's so far...

The reason super-single tires aren't seen is because the maximum they can legally carry on a tandem axle is 2,000 lbs less than duals. The was done because of fear of road damage. Nevermind that when one of a pair of duals goes flat the road damage increases immensely. So a common configuration with four tandem axles reduces the maximum by 8,000 lbs.

 

[cliff harris]

Kuka handles heavy lift processes on fixed, solid, well located and fixtured objects.
Line workers deal with floppy, variable, misaligned, smaller bits.
A lot of the Kuka structure is to allow repeatability and accuracy while extended. FSD real time adjustability would compensate for flex and not need as much mass. Prime is for the tasks that failed in the 3 ramp.

Agreed. The model 3 automation fails is exactly where I see Tesla leveraging the bot on the line. I think they may well use the FSD chip from the bot, and the actuators from the bot, and even the bot arms, but for a fixed location on the line, its inefficient (and elon hates that) to build a bipedal robot that will just stand at a fixed spot on the line. You might as well do away with any variability in stance etc and just weld a bot torso to that point on the line .

Flexibiltiy is great, but I'm sure there are some locations where they know exactly what needs doing, and don't expect it to vary. Maybe a pair of bot arms is attaching the windscreen wipers all day, or fitting tal-lights. No need for legs there. (I guess if things go well, me might see companies like Kuka or ABB or Fanuc start to struggle, or even get bought by tesla if they want a quick way to scale bot production. KUKA has a $3bn market cap. Fanuc 24bn)

But I DO expect Tesla, like any company would, to focus in their marketing materials on bots with 2 legs walking around and appearing human. Thats what people expect to see.

 

[growler23]

So the competition isn't coming. The competition is giving up

Ford is stumbling badly (it appears) with the Lightning right now.
GM appears to be in a towel-throwing contest. (forgive me: that is slang for giving up)
In contrast, Tesla appears to be on-the-fly adjusting to perceived/predicted global conditions. I hope these conditions end up better than Elon predicts (so far IMO they have, but that is no guarantee going forward). Tesla is in no way resting on its laurels, despite the grousing I sense hereabouts.

To me, the real story is one we still only get tantalizing hints about, and we only get the good-sounding hints released to us. Lest we forget: batteries are the blood supply of the Transition, and 4680's are Tesla's Supercharged infusion into that supply. As go the 4680's yield and scale, so will go the accelerator on the "big T" Transition. These new beasts will drive up volumes, drive down costs/drive up margins, depending on what Tesla needs and when Tesla needs it. In honor of imminent Halloween: NEED MORE BLOOD.

Spoiler: Anecdotally spreading the Word

Anecdotally, I visited Big Bend National Park in west Texas with my partner last week. Takes extra planning still since the nearest supercharger is over 100 miles away, but with planning and a single destination charge it can work (we arrived back at the embrace of the SC network with a good 20% remaining, and no slow-down needed to achieve it). ((Tesla is apparently in permitting process for SCs just outside the park. We'll see...)) While camping several days in the park, younger campers walking by commented on the car. "Wow, somebody brought their Tesla out here!" One group stopped to talk about it; I described how we were making it work. One of them had just recently driven a Y and was a likely purchase. Mostly, I'm just trying to "show the flag" in as many remote places as possible. Our mindshare is big and still growing among the young.
I also had a nice talk with a fellow older camper, science-oriented guy... I banged on for a good 15-20 minutes about how the car tells you where to charge and for how long, the presence of regen braking (how did a scientist not know about that?), the fact that the car didn't take wind into account for range calculation when I bought it... but it does now (power of OTA updates), the fact that once I get back to the nearest Supercharger I can get anywhere in the lower 48 states, etc. In some ways, preaching to the choir (technical/science guy) but he just hadn't been shown the music yet.

 

[thx1139]

So the competition isn't coming. The competition is giving up

The problem is Wallstreet will take the change as further proof that people dont want EVs like the fact that Mercedes has months of stock for an EV that costs 1/3rd more than the Model Y and has less capabilities.

Still I see multiple FUD articles every single day. The FUD articles that petroleum industry pay for are getting way out of hand. Again Tesla advertisement shouldnt be traditional advertisement. Hell I think informercials would be better investment.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So the competition isn't coming. The competition is giving up

'Competition' is, in fact, doing a 'belly flop':

# Company Symbol Portfolio% Price Chg % Chg
173 General Motors Company GM 0.12% 28.28 -0.94 (-3.21%)

Memewhile:

Cheers!