Thus far ICE is the only real competition for Tesla. Wasn't it just a month ago Ford was saying there was no interest in their EVs so they were going to hybrids?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Market really seems to be reading Tesla incorrectly right now. The Panasonic news is neutral to positive for Tesla at the core. Other OEM struggles with EVs just increase Tesla's market share and backstop volume numbers.
Tesla also seems to be a little more careful with capital spend, slowing down some of the construction work to a more strategic rather than breakneck speed.
Interest rates should be reversing course slowly as well. I just don't get the negativity with the stock price under $230.
Tesla also seems to be a little more careful with capital spend, slowing down some of the construction work to a more strategic rather than breakneck speed.
Interest rates should be reversing course slowly as well. I just don't get the negativity with the stock price under $230.
cliff harris
Member
Agreed 100%. But if you just google 'TSLA' you get a bunch of ignorant stories with titles like 'Tesla down as panasonic cuts EV batteries due to low demand'. Its just an absolute brainless zero-comprehension take on the actual facts.
I recently encountered someone saying they 'spent all their bonus money on toyota shares, as they seem to be doing some interesting stuff with batteries'. You cannot imagine the ferocity of my facepalm.
So many people invest based on headlines & tweets, and have ZERO clue as to the reality of the market for EVs right now. This is why we have a $200 SP and not a $450 one. However, nobody can deny reality. Cybertruck within a month, refinery in construction, 2 factories ramping, 1 more in construction. Bot progressing, FSD progressing.
Meanwhile toyota want us to buy an EV with a gear stick. Methinks TSLA is a STRONG BUY right now!
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
His reasoning for Toyota catching up was mainly just based on extrapolating from Toyota's past track record of beating the expectations of doubters and of being the lowest-cost producer. He also said that Toyota's $300B market cap indicated that the market believes Toyota will come through.
He even was said that his expectation was "heuristic", and did not provide any specific, concrete reasons for why Toyota would be able to accomplish the transition successfully or why being the lowest-cost producer of ICEVs would translate to being the lowest-cost producer of EVs.
I learned some new stuff from listening to this interview, but based on the guest's background and commentary it's clear he is not especially knowledgable of the engineering/technology/manufacturing aspects of this topic, which I think is essential to understanding it.
Plus there would be a new model every year that all the Applites would have to have and I doubt they would fit in their present facilities... unless they're foldable...
What is the reason Panasonic is cutting EV batteries production? Does this relate to Model S/X or not?
"Rapidly reduced demand" It's difficult to say if it will impact the S/X, but that's certainly the take from investors today.
Precisely - where are Toyotas strategic tech investments into actual Battery production capacity and related supply chain, just to mention one critical ingredient. BYOB ?
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Is this something new?
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
My guess is battery production growth might be outpacing EV production growth? Just over 1 year ago Martin Viecha said “For the first time I can remember, we can access all the supply we need for both businesses.” From that point forward, with the impact of the economy and interest rates, it's feasible. MS/MX sales do appear to be materially slowing and we know Legacy is dragging their feet. I'm thinking this is a positive for Tesla who doesn't sell batteries, rather they are COGS in their products...
What is ignorant or misleading about this?
Is it the correlation of Tesla dropping so much with that story? Panasonic said in their official statement that they were cutting back on EV batteries due to rapidly reduced demand. Tesla shares were down afterward. Many believe they are related...seems like a fair headline, no?
Tesla built less S and X last quarter, so needed roughly 40 million less [18650] cells from Panasonic Japan. As a result, Panasonic is making less cells.
Tesla is the horse, Panasonic is the cart. Today's reaction is (posdibly) due to people thinking the reverse.
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Yes, it is a fair headline. Only, we know that it should be interpreted as,
"Panasonic said in their official statement that they were cutting back on EV batteries due to some of their customers being unable to market their EV's against Tesla's dominance in the marketplace. We will be ramping up again as Tesla's production demands call for yet more batteries"
It's odd people are focusing on Model S/X, when Panasonic also makes the US 2170s in the 3/Y, which are selling well. I believe the Berlin and China 3/Y use BYD versions (may be wrong there)
The CEO for Panasonic stated that Telsa in the US still has good demand, but globally the demand has dropped. They also pointed to Ford's and GM's struggles.
I agree.
I will also say that us retail investors tend to know more about products and engineering than the ins and outs of auto industry financial strategy. So we've got a lot to learn from a guy like Nick.
To Nick, being the low cost producer is paramount. And relentless cost cutting is something that can translate from ICE to EV.
I don't think that's enough to get Toyota on track. But I also don't think that Tesla and BYD will be the only major automakers in the world. So who else will survive and thrive?
That guy has a really bad head wobble, but the Cybertruck looks great
To be fair, I don't remember when market was reading Tesla correctly, if ever.
They use anything as excuse to short and create negative outlook. The article specified that orders from Tesla were not affected.
The use of the word heuristic is itself interesting since it is a synonym for ‘curiosity’ or in statistics ‘random’. It is a word that makes sense only in PR. In statistics it is usually an excuse for finding causality, so the modelers sell correlation instead.
Toyota often does things on a whim, then abandon them when they’re really wrong.
i prefer Tesla. I also expect Toyota to survive.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Forward Observing
While most of you are debating horses and carts; I am in a wrestling match with “my girl.” We typically sell/trade-in our cart/car after buying new tires or replace windshield wipers. Our first “X” was as I claimed, the last one of 1Q16 ~ and stock went up. Then we trained the first “X” because the fob was not working perfectly; 2Q19 ~ and stock went up. This time the wipper was not stowed during a car wash and cost us a few buck.
So here’s the thinking. If I con my wonderful partner to swap out this 34K mile “X“ for a brand new Stealth Grey 2023 Model X; therefore, filling one gap, a Model X gap in the required 470K sales required to move the stock needle to the North. Are you with me ~ can I convince her?
Cheers!
Note ~ if anyone claims the stock price did not go up or my dates are wrong as noted above; please do not respond
While most of you are debating horses and carts; I am in a wrestling match with “my girl.” We typically sell/trade-in our cart/car after buying new tires or replace windshield wipers. Our first “X” was as I claimed, the last one of 1Q16 ~ and stock went up. Then we trained the first “X” because the fob was not working perfectly; 2Q19 ~ and stock went up. This time the wipper was not stowed during a car wash and cost us a few buck.
So here’s the thinking. If I con my wonderful partner to swap out this 34K mile “X“ for a brand new Stealth Grey 2023 Model X; therefore, filling one gap, a Model X gap in the required 470K sales required to move the stock needle to the North. Are you with me ~ can I convince her?
Cheers!
Note ~ if anyone claims the stock price did not go up or my dates are wrong as noted above; please do not respond
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