Great stuff!!!!!
As to the hopium, I think a lot has to do with the success of CT launch coming up.
Nothing else I see could overwhelm Fed policy restraints for another hundred days or so. Or what am I missing?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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As to the hopium, I think a lot has to do with the success of CT launch coming up.
Nothing else I see could overwhelm Fed policy restraints for another hundred days or so. Or what am I missing?
BYD is in trouble after a precipitous drop in free cash flow (FCF) during Q3: (less-efficient production, a China-centric auto-market, and price-pressure from Tesla)
AJ on X: "BYD's third-quarter financial report revealed a significant downturn in free cash flow, plummeting by -$7.3 billion from a robust +$4.8 billion to a concerning -$2.6 billion.
This drastic drop, disclosed by the company today, was primarily propelled by a staggering contraction in operating free cash flows, plummeting by -$7.1 billion from a healthy +$9.3 billion to a mere +$2.2 billion.Despite a relatively modest increase of $200 million in capital expenditures (quarter-on-quarter), these figures underscore a challenging quarter for BYD."/X (8:08 ET · Oct 30, 2023)
ummm…BYD reported record profits in the quarter, as well as rapid growth in revenue and an expanding gross margin rate (25%) which is now higher than Tesla.
The quoted tweet above is scraping the bottom of the barrel to find something negative to say about what was a good result, and I find pretty much the same BS type of nonsense that TSLAQ pulls.
The big unknown that gives Toyota some breathing room is that Japan is a dead zone for EVs currently. Tesla sells one to two thousand cars there a quarter, in what is the worlds 3rd largest automotive market. EV adoption might remain pitiful there until Toyota starts shipping EVs in volume. Toyota is definitely falling behind globally in EVs, but it likely will always have its home market to support it.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
The difference I see is that AFAIK those numbers are basically a reflection of China-only production. If Tesla only manufactured cars in China, their margins would be higher too. If you took out Fremont, Nevada, Texas, and Berlin, Tesla would probably be around BYD’s numbers. Cost is just higher in North America and Europe.
Rob Maurer mentioned BYD’s improved gross margins but I hadn’t heard about the big drop in cash flow. Wonder what the reason for that was.
BYD makes busses, trucks of various types, trains , forklifts, with variety of solar products from panels to batteries. They are formidable in some ways,lincluding making chips, cellular phone batteries and more. They are less profitable than is Tesla.
World EV Sales Now Equal 18% Of World Auto Sales - CleanTechnica
Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! Global plugin vehicle registrations were up 45% in August 2023 compared to August 2022, rising to 1,238,00 units. In the end, plugins represented 18% share of the overall auto market (with a 13% BEV ...cleantechnica.com
We have Model Y and Model 3 + 5 BYD cars making up the top 7 selling electric vehicles in the world.
If we compare and contrast:-
What we can say is that these 2 companies are leading the charge on EVs at present, and if anything both are likely to extend their lead of the rest of the car industry.
- BYD has more models including some lower priced models.
- BYD is adding new models faster.
- BYD is growing revenues fast, but Tesla makes more gross margin per car.
- Both have energy storage products.
- Both make batteries.
- Tesla has Supercharging, insurance, FSD, Optimus which BYD doesn't have.
- BYD makes some of it's own computer chips.
Dig deeper and they are different companies with different strategies, there is room for both.
The big difference is in areas like FSD and Optimus where as far as I can tell BYD currently isn't even trying to complete.
BYD seem more happy to mainly be a battery and car company, but that might change.
FWIW BYD is the only manufacturer that offers a complete integrated system to power my new off-grid house in Brazil, bought yesterday with accumulated TSLA profits. They may not end out being my choice but they might. They also could be my car supplier too.
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You clearly haven’t looked at BYD. They manufacture in many countries, including Brazil, where they make batteries, busses and cars and bought a huge factory from Ford that was updated at a cost of US$ billions just before they shut it during the pandemic.
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Consider the sourceBYD is in trouble after a precipitous drop in free cash flow (FCF) during Q3: (less-efficient production, a China-centric auto-market, and price-pressure from Tesla)
AJ on X: "This drastic drop, disclosed by the company today, was primarily propelled by a staggering contraction in operating free cash flows, plummeting by -$7.1 billion from a healthy +$9.3 billion to a mere +$2.2 billion.Despite a relatively modest increase of $200 million in capital expenditures (quarter-on-quarter), these figures underscore a challenging quarter for BYD."/X (8:08 ET · Oct 30, 2023)
Even though "right-to-work" should really be called "right-to-fire".
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Almost all of their factories are in China. Definitely all of their consumer auto plants are in China. Let’s see:
-2 factories in Xi’an, third under construction
-1 in Shenzhen
-1 in Changsha
-1 in Shaoguan
-R&D/parts facility in Shanghai
-1 bus plant in Lancaster, CA
-1 bus plant in Dalian, China
-1 bus plant in Campinas, Brazil
-1 bus assembly facility in Hungary
-1 bus plant in Newmarket, Ontario
-1 auto plant in Brazil *announced* Jul 4 this year, but not yet in production.
So all active consumer auto facilities (which contribute to their current margins) are in China as far as I can see. Only assembly in Europe. The only operational facilities outside of China that I see WRT automotive are bus plants (small peanuts compared to autos).
BYD likely won’t sell in the US at all. So no, their consumer automotive vehicles are purely made in China at this time.
Moreover, they make hybrids and non-EVs—so not quite comparable unless you look at their EV-only margins, which is a sector that has proven out to be more difficult to achieve profitability.
There’s no question BYD is Tesla’s biggest competitor. But looking beyond the face value of the numbers yields a more complex situation.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I think the competitive dynamic in the labor market is more fundamental. If you are working side-by-side with a co-worker who receives identical compensation, but isn't legally required to surrender part of their pay to a union, why would you join that union? The reality is that most workers wouldn't thus its very, very hard for a union to get a majority of workers to vote for it.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
My BYD questions are:
Can they rollout a robotaxi network no more than years later than Tesla?
Will folk outside of China see their robotaxis as being 90% as safe as Tesla?
What percentage of their EV fleet will be eligible to join the robotaxi fleet?
Will they last 10 years plus pre robotaxi and 5 years as a robotaxi?
Can they rollout a robotaxi network no more than years later than Tesla?
Will folk outside of China see their robotaxis as being 90% as safe as Tesla?
What percentage of their EV fleet will be eligible to join the robotaxi fleet?
Will they last 10 years plus pre robotaxi and 5 years as a robotaxi?
One would ask most of those questions about Tesla. Robotaxi isn't reality, yet and there's not a current reliable timeline on when and what hardware will support it.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
UK: Union membership as a form of insurance
I've joined a union a couple of times. Once when young & rules were different (almost automatic, but I didn't take much notice). Next time I remember it was a conscious choice as insurance against caprice of numpty management after seeing some quite cruel and illogical behaviour from people I wouldn't trust in any way, let alone competence.
Views, countries, industry, law, culture, conventions differ - all of these are possible - useful insurance, near-essential protection from bad management behaviour, coercive control by the union, waste of money.
I've also started and run businesses, employed/recruited people, been a manager in large organisations, freelance, consultant to others.
It's often REALLY hard to recruit good people, doesn't stop some idiot in management from victimising people especially when they are at a low ebb due to family illness/difficult pregnancy etc. Once I was pleased that someone I managed was a union member as it let me keep them when they were seen as awkward by the yes-men-tocracy (stupid self-serving cowards & bullies as they were). Another time it made it harder to lose someone who had a terrible effect on others.
As an individual, I weigh up costs, risks and benefits. Situation specific & a judgement call. I might join a union at GM, I wouldn't at Tesla.
For anyone wavering, a reminder of the most important rule of investing. You sell when the price is high and buy when the price is low. It's pretty straightforward.
Also where is @StarFoxisDown! ? I miss their posts
Also where is @StarFoxisDown! ? I miss their posts
You're missing that Tesla and Elon have all but outright said the launch is going to be tough and margins aren't going to be all that good. The truck will not drive the share price to ATH. We need FSD for that. This is all but a certainty.
Book mark it.
To be fair. When will Tesla deliver a robitaxi? The infamous ‘last mile’ is very likely to be geofenced for decades. AFAIK nobody anywhere is even close to solving that as a general solution. Even geofenced is likely to be very, very limited.
Nearly all of us want Robotaxi to happen soon. I fear it might well be analogous to ‘cold fusion’.
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We all see the TSLA stock going down.
In the short term nothing more than a mere nuisance, in my opinion.
The transition to EV’s is unstoppable. If the political climate would be negative with respect to this transition, the correlation with the stock price would be important.
But it is not: the main stream political course in China and Europe is luckily clear: ICE ends, EV’s are the future. And that will not change. Only USA is uncertain in the short term.
There is only one way this is going to end: transition to EV's. Timeframe is depending on factors outside of Tesla, like a temporary recession.
Big oil and ICE producing companies will keep trying to slow the transition down as much as possible.
In the mean time Tesla keeps innovating, like AI and the 4680 battery, and leaves the competition to try to dissect and copy as quickly as possible (e.g. using Gigapresses).
And Tesla keeps its strong and more than healthy financial balance sheet in order to be recession-proof.
The outcome in the longer run can only be one.
So, unless I need some extra money, I hold on to my TSLA shares.
I would be crazy not to.
In the short term nothing more than a mere nuisance, in my opinion.
The transition to EV’s is unstoppable. If the political climate would be negative with respect to this transition, the correlation with the stock price would be important.
But it is not: the main stream political course in China and Europe is luckily clear: ICE ends, EV’s are the future. And that will not change. Only USA is uncertain in the short term.
There is only one way this is going to end: transition to EV's. Timeframe is depending on factors outside of Tesla, like a temporary recession.
Big oil and ICE producing companies will keep trying to slow the transition down as much as possible.
In the mean time Tesla keeps innovating, like AI and the 4680 battery, and leaves the competition to try to dissect and copy as quickly as possible (e.g. using Gigapresses).
And Tesla keeps its strong and more than healthy financial balance sheet in order to be recession-proof.
The outcome in the longer run can only be one.
So, unless I need some extra money, I hold on to my TSLA shares.
I would be crazy not to.
I agree FSD would spike the share price, but we don't need FSD to reach our ATH either. We can certainly get back to $415 simply from increasing auto + energy production (more cars and megapacks to sell).
As well as dismissing the BYD international strategy one makes a closely analogous mistake of ignoring Tesla Energy. They are different, and I would not care to invest in BYD. I definitely would not make the regular Wall Street mistake of viewing both as simply car companies.
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