Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jabloomf1230]

Tesla drivers had highest accident rate, BMW drivers highest DUI rate, study finds

Tesla drivers had 24 accidents per 1,000 drivers during the period from mid-November 2022 to mid-November 2023, according to a study by Lending Tree.

www.cnbc.com

It case anyone wondered.....

The differences in accident rates by brand aren't that great. Generally, the typical driver had an accident every 4 years. A Tesla driver had an accident every 3+ years.

Also, I assume that these accident rates are based on cause. If they didn't take into account whether a driver was at fault, they have less credibility.

 

[wipster]

Tesla drivers had highest accident rate, BMW drivers highest DUI rate, study finds

Tesla drivers had 24 accidents per 1,000 drivers during the period from mid-November 2022 to mid-November 2023, according to a study by Lending Tree.

www.cnbc.com

It case anyone wondered.....

But that counts pre-Tesla accidents by the driver when they applied to Lending Tree, correct? It doesn't say that Tesla's are dangerous, just that some people now driving Tesla's had a lot of accidents before getting into their new Tesla's.

Yet a lot of folks will just read the headline. This is the type of crap Elon needs to sic his hotshot lawyer team on

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla themselves are targeting 2027 to start selling Optimus to customers

Where'd you get that nugget?

Cheers!

 

[Mengy]

Where'd you get that nugget?

Cheers!

Elon mentioned they want to start bot sales in 3-4 years recently, I just extrapolated that to 2027. I don't believe he gave an actual year specifically.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I didn't know "accidents per 1,000 drivers" was a statistic given frequent scrutiny. Wouldn't "accidents per million miles driven" be a better metric?

Not when it comes to Tesla

 

[bpjod]

Regarding the Forbes hit piece about lousy Tesla drivers, on Reddit there appears to be a pretty good debunking of this article and it's writer. In short, written by an advisor to the likes of BP, Chevron, ExxonMobile and Shell. The people going to LendingTree to get insurance quotes are typically those who are trying to find cheaper insurance, often because they've proven they're risky drivers and the vehicle they enter when getting a quote is the vehicle they're seeking to insure - as in the vehicle they're looking to buy, not the vehicle they were driving when they established their lousy driving record.

Although I guess one could reason that a disproportionate number of lousy drivers are wanting to buy Teslas. On the one hand, in time, eventually the writer of the article could be proven right by this. On the otherhand, hopefully Tesla's active safety systems makes these hazardous drivers less of a danger to others.

 

[aronth5]

Thoughtful (Extremely Hopeful) Bot Speculation Randy & Brian. Does anyone else love hearing these guys spitball like I do?

I find their analysis pretty weak. More emotion than anything. Particularly Randy. Really,100k BOTS next year!
Someone is really drinking too much Tesla Kool-Aid.

 

[insaneoctane]

FUD data point

Today at the dentist, during a conversation with the dental hygienist, I mentioned that "trucks are to Texas as Priuses or Teslas are to California". She immediately (not knowing that I was a "Tesla" guy) said "Oh, my, don't mention Teslas with that 2M car recall!". She was genuinely afraid of all the dangerous Teslas on the same road with her, that weren't road worthy. I was pretty quickly able to let her know she was mislead by the headlines and the "recall" was an OTA update not requiring any owners to bring their cars in, rather the update would occur remotely in the driveway and that it was essentially over the opinion of how to nag users of autopilot. She seemed ashamed of her hook, line and sinker to the headlines. Then, maybe 5 minutes later, the dentist sits down. He knows I'm a Tesla guy, and asked me what I thought about the 2M car recall....sigh.

I know this is the usual FUD, but this headline is getting fantastic traction for the FUDsters and annoying me more than the usual.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1737246827047538777

1m CTs / annum seems a little high

 

[Musskiah]

I find their analysis pretty weak. More emotion than anything. Particularly Randy. Really,100k BOTS next year!
Someone is really drinking too much Tesla Kool-Aid.

I agree. I posted this to be facetious. I do enjoy the taste of Kool-Aid while listening to these two hopeful optimists. I can't believe no one else loves them!?! How about Randy and Larry? They tend towards more realistic conversation. Anyone dig their conversations?

 

[Musskiah]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1737246827047538777

1m CTs / annum seems a little high

Mexico leaked Cybertruck will be produced there as well. The TAM for Cybertruck can easily approach 1M per annum if you consider total truck sales in just the US is over 10M in 2022. That's just 10% of the market...easy peasy

 

[Musskiah]

No

FUD data point

Today at the dentist, during a conversation with the dental hygienist, I mentioned that "trucks are to Texas as Priuses or Teslas are to California". She immediately (not knowing that I was a "Tesla" guy) said "Oh, my, don't mention Teslas with that 2M car recall!". She was genuinely afraid of all the dangerous Teslas on the same road with her, that weren't road worthy. I was pretty quickly able to let her know she was mislead by the headlines and the "recall" was an OTA update not requiring any owners to bring their cars in, rather the update would occur remotely in the driveway and that it was essentially over the opinion of how to nag users of autopilot. She seemed ashamed of her hook, line and sinker to the headlines. Then, maybe 5 minutes later, the dentist sits down. He knows I'm a Tesla guy, and asked me what I thought about the 2M car recall....sigh.

I know this is the usual FUD, but this headline is getting fantastic traction for the FUDsters and annoying me more than the usual.

I want to dispel a potential myth...not all dentists fall for FUD! (From a retired dentist)

 

[Krugerrand]

FUD data point

Today at the dentist, during a conversation with the dental hygienist, I mentioned that "trucks are to Texas as Priuses or Teslas are to California". She immediately (not knowing that I was a "Tesla" guy) said "Oh, my, don't mention Teslas with that 2M car recall!". She was genuinely afraid of all the dangerous Teslas on the same road with her, that weren't road worthy. I was pretty quickly able to let her know she was mislead by the headlines and the "recall" was an OTA update not requiring any owners to bring their cars in, rather the update would occur remotely in the driveway and that it was essentially over the opinion of how to nag users of autopilot. She seemed ashamed of her hook, line and sinker to the headlines. Then, maybe 5 minutes later, the dentist sits down. He knows I'm a Tesla guy, and asked me what I thought about the 2M car recall....sigh.

I know this is the usual FUD, but this headline is getting fantastic traction for the FUDsters and annoying me more than the usual.

Conversely, I was getting a new windshield today and the owner of the shop expressed how ridiculous it was for anyone to be reporting 2m Tesla vehicles recalled. He wasn’t fooled at all.

 

[MartinAustin]

Loving that little northwards climb for TSLA at the end of AH

Perhaps $260 will be cracked tomorrow

 

[2daMoon]

Reading multiple views here about 2024...
Am I missing the mark by thinking about supply vs demand as the ultimate driver of 2024 vehicles sold? Forget CT for a moment, but Tesla's vehicle margins have been pretty low and the trajectory has been downward. I feel like that is a significant piece of the puzzle regarding Berlin, Austin, Shanghai and Fremont increasing production rates. Why push them harder and higher if the demand is still ~soft and it would require further reducing prices and margins to move the increased production? Don't current wait times and discounting actions indicate that S&D are currently well balanced?

Another thought is while the TM3 Highlander will increase demand, it will cost reduced margins on the current supply of TM3s to clear them out and will cost Fremont some production down time to switch over...so in reality, it's not purely positives...

Maybe, just maybe, it is because of that "mission" thingy. The one crafted a decade and a half ago, where they spelled out the long-term plan, including how Tesla's goal to achieve it will be to drive prices down and to sell more cars each year.

Consider how that downward trajectory which concerns you may not be due to a lack of demand, it might be due to the acceleration of the transition to sustainable energy moving at the speed of Tesla.

Elon has said on multiple occasions how Tesla will do whatever it takes to achieve the goal, even if they have to run at low profit.

Anyone trying to judge Tesla based upon traditional metrics founded in increasing profit are likely to misunderstand what is going on.

That's okay. It might make it a little tougher on shareholders at times, but in the long run, after Wall Street figures out what they missed and plays catch up one more time, we HODLers will be waiting for our reward. Again.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Jim Cramer says it's time for investors to take some profit in this hot market

"It's almost impossible to call the top in an individual stock, so what you need to do is sell your winners gradually on the way up," CNBC's Jim Cramer said.

www.cnbc.com

$TSLA = $300 SP confirmed



MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!!!

 

[EQC_]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1737246827047538777

1m CTs / annum seems a little high

I agree with you, at least in terms of the Cybertruck in its current form. The F-150 sells a lot...but there are 2-door, extended, and quad-cabs with various bed lengths...a little something for everybody.

I don't think *that* type of variation would be easy with the Cybertruck platform, but im really hoping Tesla is far along in design variants that do make sense -- hopefully 3-row CuberSUV and/or Van variants that can use the same battery packs and castings. I think a CyberFamily like that could do 1M per year. Even more if they can do smaller versions too...but that would require more engineering and probably couldn't use the same castings

 

[2daMoon]

I agree with you, at least in terms of the Cybertruck in its current form. The F-150 sells a lot...but there are 2-door, extended, and quad-cabs with various bed lengths...a little something for everybody.

I don't think *that* type of variation would be easy with the Cybertruck platform, but im really hoping Tesla is far along in design variants that do make sense -- hopefully 3-row CuberSUV and/or Van variants that can use the same battery packs and castings. I think a CyberFamily like that could do 1M per year. Even more if they can do smaller versions too...but that would require more engineering and probably couldn't use the same castings

I'm hoping that the castings and production line for the next gen are easily adapted to be used on multiple models.

It would be great to have a 5 door hatch, a smaller pickup, a 3 row/cargo van/SUV, and maybe a Boring Tunnel bus, all built on the same line just by altering which parts are loaded. Each of which can be driven manually or autonomously.

 

[MC3OZ]

I don't think *that* type of variation would be easy with the Cybertruck platform, but im really hoping Tesla is far along in design variants that do make sense -- hopefully 3-row CuberSUV and/or Van variants that can use the same battery packs and castings. I think a CyberFamily like that could do 1M per year. Even more if they can do smaller versions too...but that would require more engineering and probably couldn't use the same castings

I agree.

The factory tours and the great info the team provided to Sandy Munro increased my level of confidence in high volume manufacturing of this type of vehicle.

It all depends on what makes sense as a total package, An SUV makes some sense because it would be a tough off-road vehicle that could tow and the skin can contribute to towing..

For a van a cyber-style would work aesthetically, but the weight of the skin would need to be considered.
For a van, crash protection is only really needed where the passengers are, so the cargo part of the van could be thinner stainless steel.

Some of the manufacturing techniques and lessons may be able to be applied to more conventional vehicle designs,

I doubt that another manufacturer would attempt to solve the problems that needed to be solved to make the Cybertruck or could get manufacturing equipment suppliers to make the new equipment. The supplier needs confidence that the manufacturer is fully committed.

 

[Buckminster]

New poll:
Poll: Gen 3 exterior material