Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Three points on the cybertruck range.

• The cybertruck range today is the worst performing it will be. Better software/battery chemistry may come. It will certainly never get worse.
• The supercharger network today is the worst it will be. It will only expand and become more ubiquitous, reducing range anxiety considerably.
• Charging speeds today are the worst they will be too. They can only get better,

There are definitely people in rural areas, with not many charging options, who may be nervous about CT range. That becomes less of an issue every day, as more chargers get added, and are noticed by potential customers.

Lots of the big bladder boys turned up on the site today

 

[hobbes]

Poland was and is looking better and better.

For a logistics center for Giga Berlin ? /s

 

[winfield100]

The charging rate will be improved over time. Even so, most charging is done at home even here on The Mountain. I don’t mind slower charging because current charging is too fast for more than a quick run to and from a toilet. You used to be able to pitstop and have a sit down meal - can’t do that now. Takes some of the fun out of travel for folks like me who want to enjoy the journey as much as the destination.

@Krugerrand
OT but direct answer
au contraire.
If you drive the east coast of the US, Interstate 95 (I-95) and stop at the supercharger at Lumberton, North Carolina, 150kw (V2?) with 10-25% range, set your range to 100% charge rate, look at the signs "20% discount for Tesla chargers at adjacent steakhouse (cat's are carnivores?) you can have a pitstop, steak, baked sweet potatoe with heart stopping amount of brown sugar, gobs of melted butter, melted marshmellows in a gooey mass (gall bladder attack levels from the grease), plenty of time

(plus Willie Jewel's BBQ in Brunswick Georgia is a sit down eatery with a brisk walk to and from the 250kw chargers

(Lumberton, NC, Maybe 50+ miles north of Buccee's in Florence SC that has 128 gas pumps and 16, 250kw chargers)
(remember to use the phone in case it sets to 80% to override to 100%)

 

[jerry33]

@Krugerrand
OT but direct answer
au contraire.
If you drive the east coast of the US, Interstate 95 (I-95) and stop at the supercharger at Lumberton, North Carolina, 150kw (V2?) with 10-25% range, set your range to 100% charge rate, look at the signs "20% discount for Tesla chargers at adjacent steakhouse (cat's are carnivores?) you can have a pitstop, steak, baked sweet potatoe with heart stopping amount of brown sugar, gobs of melted butter, melted marshmellows in a gooey mass (gall bladder attack levels from the grease), plenty of time

(plus Willie Jewel's BBQ in Brunswick Georgia is a sit down eatery with a brisk walk to and from the 250kw chargers

(Lumberton, NC, Maybe 50+ miles north of Buccee's in Florence SC that has 128 gas pumps and 16, 250kw chargers)
(remember to use the phone in case it sets to 80% to override to 100%)

At least as long as you don't mind the idle fees or move your car after charging completes.

 

[unk45]

Point of clarification, with Taliban etc, as well as more innocent parties in, say, North
Africa : everywhere I have been that if your vehicle breaks down, you die? The vehicle of choice is a Hilux variant. And with good reason, those things just don’t break. Land Cruiser in those places meanwhile is more scarce -- the choice of bosses, strongmen, UN officials etc and often attracts too much attention. Ratio in most places seems to be maybe 30 Hilux to 1 Land Cruiser.

That bet-your-life-on-it quality level is why Toyota remains a formidable competitor for TSLA and will be for decades to come, despite their seemingly bull-headed behavior re: BEV vs ICE vs Hybrid.
Their new (under construction but close) NA battery plant is a shocker, not quite a third of Giga Texas but still freaking huge. They indicate it is flexible enough to make batteries for their hybrids as well as the new 7-seater EV etc and my sense is its going to be nearly entirely hybrid stuff, then gradually switch over as the company gets its head on straight for EV and market support its. I can’t imagine it can be easily converted away from pouch batteries but who knows.

I apologize for any misstatement I may have made. For years in Yemen, Afghanistan and Northern Pakistan
(they are the amir ones i personally have observed) they were nearly all labeled Land Cruisers but the HiLux were dominant for carrying soldiers and arms. The HiLux pickups are, in most of those markets nearly identical mechanically to the Land Cruiser, only the pickup vs passengers being the big differences. Throughout the world those two are/have been mechanically identical or substantially different. In the bulk of poorer countries that are mechanically and structurally the same except for passenger vs freight.
One major advantage of Toyota was the utter simplicity of every part so anybody anywhere can replace nearly anything. Even today in much of, say, East Africa variants of those thrive, not so much because of reliability as easy fixability. Anybody whose endured off roading in those monstrosities knows how easily they suffer suspension breakage, which really doesn't matter because they're so vary easy to fix.
Having spent unhappy times in those myself I can say the whole exercise is vastly easier in Land Rovers, but those break and are harder to repair.

Luckily for Tesla, this really has changed little in recent decades. OTOH, the very robust simplicity presents a major challenge for Tesla as it grows. Some form of simple indestructibility and simple repair will end out being of crucial importance, possible equal to the electricity issue, a few years from now.

 

[Unpilot]

Cybertrucks do kind of have sucky range for a truck though. I mean I love it. But anyone we know who was planning on buying it as a truck is not going thru with it. It’s not really any worse or better for range than any other EV truck. But 250 miles or so or 125 ish towing, and slow charging, is a huge disappointment for lots of people and some are expressing that. Can’t blame them for that.

They have also gone radio silent on the range extender battery so not sure if that will even be an option.

I’m sure they will still sell lots. But it’s going to be more of a driveway ornament than a truck. Not that I wouldn’t put one of those ornaments in my driveway if it was a freebie. Love the look.

Jmho.

And I suspect at least initially the margin will not be great

Always looking for the bright side, aye.

 

[InTheMiddle]

This all makes sense.


This doesn't make any sense - drive as fast as you want and take one bathroom break once in your trip is giving you an issue ? You'd be going to the bathroom on arrival anyway while parked.

(see bullet 4 below).

Lots of the big bladder boys turned up on the site today

(No bravado here, just much experience and many, many, many hours behind the wheel of my Teslas.)

My days of completely non-stop driving are (mostly) behind me, even though my days of long-distance driving are increasing. My comment was specifically about no-charging-stop driving (or, at least, fewer-charging-stop trips), and I openly acknowledge that my use cases are my own, as others' use cases are their own and are just as valid.

Bullet points for me below, but the heart of the matter I'm trying to convey is not about my own drives; it's that Tesla has existing clients (hence low customer acquisition cost, more likely purchasers, etc) who would happily pay more (at high margins) for true longer-range variants of their existing cars. Up until now, Tesla has been supply-constrained and I could support them focusing on the larger market areas at 250-350mi ranges. Now that Tesla does appear to be demand-constrained to some degree, it might be a good time to offer variants for the longer-traveling market. There are plenty of people who will buy these instantly for their own use cases, whatever they may be.

Notes for me - likely others as well, but I don't pretend my use cases are everyone's use cases):
* For me, the fact that I will have to explain to my all-ICE-driving passengers this weekend that, yes, my Model X has stated EPA range > one-way distance, but we still must charge along the way is annoying (their ICE vehicles do not get EPA range on this same drive, of course, but will still one-way with plenty of gas in the tank to spare...total range, not gas stations versus chargers is what matters).
* This trip has a popular stop mid-way thru with nice facilities and is a common restroom break location, but has no charging facilities and is, in fact, in the middle of a ~130mi stretch from the SuperCharger (SC) last passed and the next SC up ahead.
* Even if a new SC appeared at the location of the prior bullet point, several of my longer drives are continuations on from this weekend's destination, and there are many similar 100+ stretches between SCs.
* When someone does need to use the restroom, convenience to the restroom is the focus, not "Let's drive 20 minutes backwards to the last one or hold it for another > 1 hour so we can use the restroom at the charger instead of this nice, clean, accessible one 10 miles forward."
* At first, planning "Here's a nice restaurant at the SC in this town we're going thru, let's have dinner there!" is a fun process. After eating there multiple times and driving past the even-better-looking other restaurant in that town, simply because it's 2 miles away from the SC, it can become quite the annoyance, especially when the car-recommended charge time is 30-40 minutes so you cannot just charge separately from the meal without inconvenience.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Always looking for the bright side, aye.

Realistic. I kinda thought that’s how it goes on ramp ups. Margins get better as the line speeds up.

What do I know.

 

[MP3Mike]

Re the extended range battery. That would work for us. But I haven’t seen any reviews from anyone that has one

That is because it isn't available yet. Tesla has said it will be available in late 2024.

You mentioned that it was in your configuration info? (Did I misunderstand that). So is it actually orderable now?

Yes, you can opt for it when you order your Cybertruck. ($500 non-refundable fee.)

 

[NicoV]

No-news-day today?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

That is because it isn't available yet. Tesla has said it will be available in late 2024.


Yes, you can opt for it when you order your Cybertruck. ($500 non-refundable fee.)

Thanks.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, Howdy! I reiterate, MMs and hedgies do not read the news: they fake the news. As in "head-fake":

Hedge-funds (many of who have been granted Options Market Maker status) know how the market is positioned, and then do the opposite in order to graft wasted money bet on Options by retail marks investors gamblers.

As the great philosopher Matthew Broderick once told us: "the only way to win is not to play".

Cheers to the Stoics!

 

[Usain]

New poll about FSD V12 and robotaxi.

FSD V12 and robotaxi rollout poll

We've all heard about FSD V12 and we've seen the videos. Are we getting closer to a Tesla robotaxi trial? Has V12 made you more bullish?

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Krugerrand]

Yah I get some of that. But I think the 318 refers to EPA range. I got the impression from some of the reviewers that real highway range was closer to 250 miles. Or maybe I misunderstood.

It’s winter. Nobody is getting EPA on their ICE pickups with All-T tires either.

Re the extended range battery. That would work for us. But I haven’t seen any reviews from anyone that has one.

That’s because they aren’t available yet. If you finalize a CT order you get an opportunity to pre-order one and be at the top of the list. It’s a non-refundable $500 order fee and the batteries are supposed to be available later this year. The batteries need to be installed at a SC.

Now you know everything and you didn’t even have to pretend to go through finalizing your CT order only to cancel before paying $1000 to get the info.

I imagine what will happen is that Tesla will see what demand for it is. If there isn’t enough demand Tesla will make enough to fill preorders and then quickly discontinue it. People holding off ordering because of range may actually cause the range to not become widely available. I am reminded of the S40.

 

[Drax7]

Moving higher against market trend, maybe an indication the FSD
Deniers are getting nervous.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

It’s winter. Nobody is getting EPA on their ICE pickups with All-T tires either.

That’s because they aren’t available yet. If you finalize a CT order you get an opportunity to pre-order one and be at the top of the list. It’s a non-refundable $500 order fee and the batteries are supposed to be available later this year. The batteries need to be installed at a SC.

Now you know everything and you didn’t even have to pretend to go through finalizing your CT order only to cancel before paying $1000 to get the info.

I imagine what will happen is that Tesla will see what demand for it is. If there isn’t enough demand Tesla will make enough to fill preorders and then quickly discontinue it. People holding off ordering because of range may actually cause the range to not become widely available. I am reminded of the S40.

What happened with the S40.

 

[advocate8]

I apologize for any misstatement I may have made. For years in Yemen, Afghanistan and Northern Pakistan
(they are the amir ones i personally have observed) they were nearly all labeled Land Cruisers but the HiLux were dominant for carrying soldiers and arms. The HiLux pickups are, in most of those markets nearly identical mechanically to the Land Cruiser, only the pickup vs passengers being the big differences. Throughout the world those two are/have been mechanically identical or substantially different. In the bulk of poorer countries that are mechanically and structurally the same except for passenger vs freight.
One major advantage of Toyota was the utter simplicity of every part so anybody anywhere can replace nearly anything. Even today in much of, say, East Africa variants of those thrive, not so much because of reliability as easy fixability. Anybody whose endured off roading in those monstrosities knows how easily they suffer suspension breakage, which really doesn't matter because they're so vary easy to fix.
Having spent unhappy times in those myself I can say the whole exercise is vastly easier in Land Rovers, but those break and are harder to repair.

Luckily for Tesla, this really has changed little in recent decades. OTOH, the very robust simplicity presents a major challenge for Tesla as it grows. Some form of simple indestructibility and simple repair will end out being of crucial importance, possible equal to the electricity issue, a few years from now.

The Afghan bosses are using the big Land Cruisers we get here. The UN does in a lot of places also. But yes to all that generally.
These markets don’t strike me as particularly important for Tesla, though yeah, in the long term the advantages of the mechanical simplicity of EVs vs ICE should win out once their charging issues which can be much more problematic than ours are dealt with.

 

[NicoV]

Cybertruck in boat mode:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760151378448515203

 

[MP3Mike]

What happened with the S40.

As I recall, not enough people ordered it, so Telsa didn't actually make it. Instead, they software locked a S60 down to an S40, and then removed it from the menu. People complained then that they were waiting to order until Tesla actually started making them, but at that point the S40 was no longer available to order and they had to go for the S60.

So, the exact same thing can't happen, but they could fulfill the orders and then discontinue the option if not enough people opt to order it.

 

[Krugerrand]

What happened with the S40.

Never made. Tesla made S60s and then range limited them to an S40 for the 2?/4? percent who had ordered. Later Tesla gave those people an option to buy their bigger battery.

Tesla is always looking for trends in their vehicles. People adjust the passenger seat lumber once/infrequently/never - so Tesla takes it away because very few people ‘use’ it like they ‘use’ driver’s seat lumbar. Now, that’s an example I didn’t agree with, but my point stands; order and use trends matter to Tesla for future iterations.