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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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It's really the opposite, if she buys that's a sell signal. Don't believe me ..chart it.
She looks pretty effing on pointe, especially if you add in her latest purchases...
CathieWoodsTeslaTradesLastThreeYears.jpeg

@geometro @nativewolf Care to comment on this data? Does it suprise you? Maybe it is her latest trades you were throwing shade at? Oh wait, also on pointe Tip, all the time Fife...
Screenshot_20240417_215144_Chrome.jpg
 
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I'm honestly having some trouble make this use case make sense compared to just instacart-- which also saves me the time both ways and the time shopping for a fee that'd almost certainly be comparable, or less, than a round-trip RT ride (let alone cost of my time)




IIRC Uber already has a multi-stop feature with idle fees so this one seems a solved problem.





Yeah this is why a single RT model is insufficient if it wants to replace all/most cars.

A 2-passenger one will replace some-- but I've certainly needed to call UberXLs when it was a group of 4+ people going somewhere- plus the family situations or cargo ones you mention.
Ubers busiest time is Friday and Saturday night. It's taking people out to eat and drink and dance. Good for the world we don't drink and drive as much as we used to and that saves lives. Every time a client had me out on the weekend it would be more than 2 of us. We'd grab Ubers because good luck parking and drinking. But there's only so many people that want to and are able to do this and thus the number of cars needed is capped. It would crimp the value of a 2 seater a bit.
 
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Ubers busiest time is Friday and Saturday night. It's taking people out to eat and drink and dance. Good for the world we don't drink and drive as much as we used to and that saves lives. Every time a client had me out on the weekend it would be more than 2 of us. We'd grab Ubers because good luck parking and drinking. But there's only so many people that want to and are able to do this and thus the number of cars needed is capped. It would crimp the value of a 2 seater a bit.
If you all desperately need to travel in the same car book a Model 3/Y, of if there are a lot of you a Model X.

2 seats are for individuals, couples or groups that don't mind splitting up over multiple vehicles. I suspect you would still be able to share the witty jokes via video link if you were travelling in multiple cars.

If you were all in the one car, that means you were all going or Place A to Place B, or the car dropped off at multiple locations..
 
I think it's coming pretty soon. As @Todd Burch just pointed out, we will know a lot more when we get 12.4. (Hey, I like that rhyme. "We will know a lot more when we get 12-point-4")

One accident with injury is not going to shut down Tesla robotaxi or even slow it very much. In fact, it's definitely going to happen. Even a fatality or two will happen eventually, just as it does with Uber and Lyft.

Plane crashes haven't shut down the airline industry. The main problem with Cruise is that they tried to hide what really happened. And even now, Cruise is sort of still going.

But your post does make me wonder if that would be the time when Elon might be convinced to hire a public relations specialist when/if something tragic happens.

I guess we'll see 8.8. Your "coming pretty soon" means it's 8/8 to me. At least we only have to wait less than 4 months. I'm surprised if they will turn it all on in August since anything later isn't, at least for me, pretty soon. I would think there would need to be some regulatory thing to let anyone be driven in the back seat, but it doesn't sound like folks here believe that's a blocker.
 
Well, thanks for the correction.

I'm getting pretty sick of ChatGPT4, it was believable. There was even more listed to explain it all. Garbage in, Garbage out.

I asked ChatGPT4 about the conversion rate for my Tesla convertible bonds, taking into account splits. Last year, it responded authoritatively with an answer that was wrong. Today, ChatGPT4 gave the right answer. It's getting better, but it takes awhile.

Just want to point out that Ashok and Elon have seen and are probably driving 12.4 if not something beyond that. (James Douma thinks so too).

So Elon and Ashok have witnessed firsthand the rate of change from 12.3 to their current internal build.

I don’t think the big focus on autonomy is a coincidence. And it's not because of the initial internal build of v12 which Tesla was running on last year.

It’s because they’ve seen the rate of improvement from internal v12 to internal v12.4 and possibly beyond.

Again, these NN will not improve linearly. Almost everyone thinks linearly. We’re used to the slow pace of heuristic v11 code changes. This will vastly outpace the rate of change of v11.

Nobody thought AI could beat Lee Sedol at Go.

Then it beat him.

Then it clobbered him.

Then it made moves that were so good even he could not understand them.

AlphaGo is predicting moves in a game with well defined rules, limited inputs, and a clear outcome. It was able to play itself to quickly learn the best strategies. FSD, or LLMs for that matter, don't work that way.

FSD is predicting actions based on real world situations. Even if FSD improves exponentially, reducing the wrong predictions by five or six nines, is also exponential. Solving an exponential problem at an exponential pace takes linear time.

That's *if* the v12 model improves exponentially. Do you have any evidence that FSD v12 will improve exponentially?
 
She looks pretty effing on pointe, especially if you add in her latest purchases...
View attachment 1039518
@geometro @nativewolf Care to comment on this data? Does it suprise you? Maybe it is her latest trades you were throwing shade at? Oh wait, also on pointe Tip, all the time Fife...
View attachment 1039526

Do people really think this lady is so smart that she can time the market? If you plug in her ARKK fund and just compare it with BRK-A, she loses in every single time chart you can pick. Of course, she's down now due to TSLA, but typically, there are very few/no real great market timers since the market can be irrational longer than someone can be solvent if they keep betting against something and it drags out.

"...is also considered by Morningstar to be the third highest "wealth destroyer" investment fund from 2014–2023."

I've always felt if someone was that great at truly timing the market/picking stocks, she would just manage her own funds and just make $$ and shut up honestly since she's that good. She doesn't need to gamble with other people's $$.

Go to google and compare her fund with BRK-A and it's worst in every single time category you can pick there. She had a brief high during the pandemic in 2021-2022, but that was it.
 
If you all desperately need to travel in the same car book a Model 3/Y, of if there are a lot of you a Model X.

2 seats are for individuals, couples or groups that don't mind splitting up over multiple vehicles. I suspect you would still be able to share the witty jokes via video link if you were travelling in multiple cars.

If you were all in the one car, that means you were all going or Place A to Place B, or the car dropped off at multiple locations..
That's assuming the rest of the fleet is capable. They are making a purpose built RT. It's a good assumption that will be the first car able to be a RT. Who knows at this point.
 
She looks pretty effing on pointe, especially if you add in her latest purchases...
View attachment 1039518
@geometro @nativewolf Care to comment on this data? Does it suprise you? Maybe it is her latest trades you were throwing shade at? Oh wait, also on pointe Tip, all the time Fife...
View attachment 1039526


Her favorite time horizon is 5 years, yes? Price targets are always five years out and she's said that's where their goals lie.

ARKK is -8.6% in the last 5 years. Do you know how hard that is to do when SPY is +72% and QQQ is +127% in that same time?
 
Her favorite time horizon is 5 years, yes? Price targets are always five years out and she's said that's where their goals lie.

ARKK is -8.6% in the last 5 years. Do you know how hard that is to do when SPY is +72% and QQQ is +127% in that same time?

Not fair, but NVDA is up 1766+%. META 179%, GOOG 152%, AAPL 233%

I just don't think she's the genius some people here make her out to be. You are probably just as effective if you were to toss all your $$ on any high tech flyer really (or just buy Tesla yourself if you believe that strongly, but she isn't right more than she is wrong).
 
That's your take, and that's fine. Mine is that $12k for FSD pays for itself if it saves you from even one distracted crash at 70+ mph. (These days most of my miles are road trip miles) It has saved me from two accidents in town so far. While I purchased it four years ago, so it wasn't $12K--I forget what is was back then--I won't purchase a vehicle without it anymore.
That’s a really good point. I can also think of at least two instances the car anticipated accidents that I could not ‘see’ were going to happen.

A couple of other times its reacted in situations before I could react. I might have been fast enough, I might not have been. But the car was definitely fast enough.

That is real value. It can even be priceless and we know of several of those examples. People who proclaim it’s not worth it, simply speak from ignorance.
 
That's assuming the rest of the fleet is capable. They are making a purpose built RT. It's a good assumption that will be the first car able to be a RT. Who knows at this point.
What do you think a HW4 Model 3/Y/S/X with high definition radar would be missing?

if they are going to add something to the sensor suite for RT high definition radar is the most likely crutch, otherwise it is back to pure vision that all HW3/HW4 cars have.

Even if there were special cameras and hardware in the RT, there is no obvious reason what that could not be retrofitted to other models.

IMO the RT is being built purely for economic reasons, not technical reasons,

If you would not use a RT or FSD, you are not the intended customer. Some people don't own a car, or don't have a licence.
 
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Do people really think this lady is so smart that she can time the market? If you plug in her ARKK fund and just compare it with BRK-A, she loses in every single time chart you can pick. Of course, she's down now due to TSLA, but typically, there are very few/no real great market timers since the market can be irrational longer than someone can be solvent if they keep betting against something and it drags out.

"...is also considered by Morningstar to be the third highest "wealth destroyer" investment fund from 2014–2023."

I've always felt if someone was that great at truly timing the market/picking stocks, she would just manage her own funds and just make $$ and shut up honestly since she's that good. She doesn't need to gamble with other people's $$.

Go to google and compare her fund with BRK-A and it's worst in every single time category you can pick there. She had a brief high during the pandemic in 2021-2022, but that was it.
Her favorite time horizon is 5 years, yes? Price targets are always five years out and she's said that's where their goals lie.

ARKK is -8.6% in the last 5 years. Do you know how hard that is to do when SPY is +72% and QQQ is +127% in that same time?
Let's not deviate from my point. Just answer the question @DarkandStormy & @sunwarriors ...
Is she, or is she not on pointe with her TSLA purchases and sales?
I agree, she should really just stick to buying and selling Tesla. The data show she times it well, yes?