Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

I was surprised to hear him say the stainless panels provide no structural support at all. You'd think they'd at least act as shear panels.

We know at a minimum the door skins are structural, which is why they were made thicker, so that they don't need any crash structure behind them.

At 6:00 they show the Y front end with replaceable "crush cans" for low speed crashes vs. the CT which has a "corrugated" section in the casting itself. Sounds like even a low speed impact could total the vehicle, but maybe I missed something.

I thought I recall that Tesla has said that you could cut the end of the casting off and they have replacement parts that can be bolted on for minor collisions.

 

[chillerjt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788236700709175700

Seems like FSD is progressing

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I doubled my investment bc Elon kept pumping 'FSD by year-end' and he said at the shareholder meeting it 'was the best time to be a shareholder'. Days later he and Kimbal starting selling billions and the stock is down by half ever since.

Every investment has a risk, however, anything less than holding for a 8-10 year horizon is more of a gamble than an investment. JMHO of course.

As with Elon, we don't know which year he is referring to

 

[uscbucsfan]

8/8 is 3 months away. With the way Tesla is sending out updates, we might be 12.6 by then.

It's been almost 2 months to the day that V12.3 was released. Unless progress speeds up, that's unlikely.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788236700709175700

Seems like FSD is progressing

Per the tweet seems reverse will be coming

 

[GatorMeat]

What has happened to Tesla since 2021? Continued rapid growth and innovation. I propose that your perception has been influenced by media outside of Tesla. Or please share how Tesla's growth has been different over the past 30 months as compared to the 2018 to 2021 period.

Stock since 2021 is down 50%
Profit, revenue, sales are all faltered or down.
50% growth rate ended up being a lie and the CFO left bc he knew it and didn't want to continue pushing the lie

 

[Mengy]

8/8 is 3 months away. With the way Tesla is sending out updates, we might be 12.6 by then.

That does seem very likely unless the pace of updates slows. Maybe not 12.6 but probably 12.5.

 

[uscbucsfan]

That does seem very likely unless the pace of updates slows.

It would need to speed up to meet that. 12.3 was released March 12th. Does it really matter if it's 12.5 or 12.6 if we are seeing massive improvements?

 

[Mengy]

Stock since 2021 is down 50%
Profit, revenue, sales are all faltered or down.
50% growth rate ended up being a lie and the CFO left bc he knew it and didn't want to continue pushing the lie

Out of curiosity, do you think FSD, Robotaxis, or Optimus will ever contribute positively to Tesla's revenues?

 

[GatorMeat]

Every investment has a risk, however, anything less than holding for a 8-10 year horizon is more of a gamble than an investment. JMHO of course.

As with Elon, we don't know which year he is referring to

That's why I don't sell. I'm more mad at myself for not seeing through the BS Elon talks and diversifying when he and Kimbal took action and sold out and when I was witnessing FSD not really progressing. To sell now would be foolish, but I'm still sour about the last couple years Elon spent with Twitter and let tesla crash.

 

[GatorMeat]

Out of curiosity, do you think FSD, Robotaxis, or Optimus will ever contribute positively to Tesla's revenues?

That's why I don't sell. I just think Elon 100% mismanaged the last few years and didn't care about shareholders

 

[DarkandStormy]

who cares if it was planned six months ago. Why is she always selling? Further, why does she deserve tens and hundreds of millions to do nothing but sit and eat?

When was the last time an insider / executive bought Tesla stock on the open market? They're always just selling.

 

[Drumheller]

I didn't talk about Tesla's growth. I quoted the facts about TSLA's share price compared to the market. I admit SP is an indirect indicator on the health and perception of the company. But maybe there's another thread for Tesla production than this investors thread.

You stated that the stock price behavior has been the fault of Tesla / Elon. What has Tesla done that matches the fall on stock price?

 

[capster]

It does seem that Elon feels like there's some threats, be it competitors, market conditions, external special interests, etc..., on the horizon and he's getting in to battle mode.

I hope the "frivilous activities" thing doesn't imply folks can't let off steam. If you are working them 80 hours a week, they need to be able to have a Nerf gun war at 2am...

Autonomy is happening now. Future dominance in FSD and androids, aka humanoid robots, could be established within the next six months to a year.

That is the source of the urgency.

Elon hates to lose.

 

[Drumheller]

Stock since 2021 is down 50%
Profit, revenue, sales are all faltered or down.
50% growth rate ended up being a lie and the CFO left bc he knew it and didn't want to continue pushing the lie

Sales have increased dramatically since 2021.

Energy sales have increased significantly

FSD has progressed significantly

Optimus.

GigaTexas GigaBerlin

Semi.

Tesla has grown and advanced significantly since 2021

 

[sunwarriors]

Stock since 2021 is down 50%
Profit, revenue, sales are all faltered or down.
50% growth rate ended up being a lie and the CFO left bc he knew it and didn't want to continue pushing the lie

I don't understand the uber bulls not accepting any criticism of the company or their investment or feel everyone is a troll (which I disagree with obviously). Past performance does not guarantee future returns with investments. It's still a wait and see I feel and I'm fine with seeing what happens in 3/5/10 years.

I think the facts are:
1) Sales YoY, QoQ has dropped which has never happened (* outside of Covid) for Tesla. No growth in sales tend to be a death spell for growth companies. I'm more interested in Q2 numbers rather than 8/8.
2) Elon is in demon mode and to me, he himself is very concerned so why aren't investors or long term people here even slightly concerned? I a lot of people bring back the days of Tesla in 2018, but the stock/company was only worth about $20 and had a market cap of $10 billion (I think). We are at a $550 billion market cap now and Elon himself is very concerned with costs/doing layoffs, telling everyone to go hardcore. You don't do that unless you are worried.
3) There has been very large inventories of cars built up now just sitting for anyone to buy. This was not common until recently. Remember how Tesla's were supposed to be an appreciating asset/car?
4) Unlike the uber bulls who will buy nothing but a Tesla, every other EV is an EV Tesla didn't sell and there is a LOT more options now vs. 2018 which only had the Bolt.
5) For folks who thought the SC network was Tesla's main advantage, that advantage is now gone as well.
6) They have cut prices of the MY (I tend to not care about the M3) by $20k in the US.
7) Their operating margin was almost 20% in some quarters, but has since dropped to 5.5%.
8) Elon has touted they should be viewed as an AI/robotics company and if you don't care for it or without it, you should not invest. That's all fine and good, but folks who believed on the earlier mission of EVs for all has a voice as well as to whether they should invest and if they don't like the FSD/Optimus, are probably getting out.
9) A few senior execs have left. This is all normal, but the manner of some layoffs has workers concerned and productivity will probably take a short term hit.

A lot of these points aren't bringing up old news. A lot are recent/from this year.

 

[2daMoon]

Elon needs to drive on drives where the 1/10,000 disengagements occur
every week, some different route. Straight line from home to factory in TX flatlands not doing it

I too have sections of drives where mind is totally blown. Family(passengers), don't even know it's FSD ... Touring test

Touring test generated a chuckle.

 

[capster]

I am curious which teams are working 80 hours a week. My guess, the FSD and Model 2.5 teams.

All of them.

You don’t ask your racehorse’s trainer to decide which parts of its excess fat are slowing it down.

You demand to have it shed all the excess.

 

[jabloomf1230]

Elon is now bullish on FSD

Elon 's use of the word is often confused with a similarly sounding word.

 

[Usain]

Excellent. It will be very interesting to see the pace of progress between 12.3 and 12.4. This is important for the 8/8 event as it gives context to how ready FSD will be for RT production starting late next year.

Definitely.

As for 8/8, I'm expecting a robotaxi demo running at least 12.5 and some ancillary code to enable robotaxi behavior.

Assuming the 8/8 event is at Giga Texas, does anyone here know if the roads there are considered private? They could do a pretty great demo just utilizing those roads.