Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Forgive me if I’m misinterpreting your posts, but I am curious as to why you appear to look at the call walls above current stock price as a positive? Historically, big call walls above the current stock price are a large negative - not a positive. Whereas large put walls below the current stock price are positive for the stock price.

No offense taken. If you're right, I'm missing out of even more money! But, now I'm puzzled.

To me, a bunch of Puts below the stock price on the Open Interest chart tell me some shorting is going that tends to pull the SP down for that week.

Recently, I was showing the Volume Chart at times, but together with the Open Interest to determine if those options were being bought or sold. For yesterday (I believe it was), I used this method to determine they were buying Calls above the SP which seems like a bullish move that should also move the Max Pain in the same upward direction.

Maybe there's a 3rd scenario where the churn of both buying and selling Options within one day causes the Volume to spike without actually moving the Open Interest wall next day. Is that what you meant? Seems less common to me if so.

Just in case it's semantics... this is a call wall right?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

No offense taken. If you're right, I'm missing out of even more money! But, now I'm puzzled.

To me, a bunch of Puts below the stock price on the Open Interest chart tell me some shorting is going that tends to pull the SP down for that week.

Recently, I was showing the Volume Chart at times, but together with the Open Interest to determine if those options were being bought or sold. For yesterday (I believe it was), I used this method to determine they were buying Calls above the SP which seems like a bullish move that should also move the Max Pain in the same upward direction.

Maybe there's a 3rd scenario where the churn of both buying and selling Options within one day causes the Volume to spike without actually moving the Open Interest wall next day. Is that what you meant? Seems less common to me if so.

Just in case it's semantics... this is a call wall right?

View attachment 1052256

All this means is that it could go up or it could go down or the 3rd scenario is it stays flat

 

[GhostSkater]

Presumably Tesla is using vision transformers, since Elon was making fun of Yann Lecun on Twitter one or two days ago and stated that Tesla isn’t using CNNs anymore (or at least not a lot). Is there any other approach to vision other than CNNs and vision transformers?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795600818311451013

 

[SOULPEDL]

All this means is that it could go up or it could go down or the 3rd scenario is it stays flat

Cute. Yes it “could” but not in equal probabilities.

 

[Knightshade]

It is unfortunate that Tesla is settling these cases because even though it isn’t an admission of guilt, it is perceived that way.

I think it should be perceived that way given Elon told us Tesla will never settle an unjust case.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527749734668050433

 

[WattsHappening]

No offense taken. If you're right, I'm missing out of even more money! But, now I'm puzzled.

To me, a bunch of Puts below the stock price on the Open Interest chart tell me some shorting is going that tends to pull the SP down for that week.

Recently, I was showing the Volume Chart at times, but together with the Open Interest to determine if those options were being bought or sold. For yesterday (I believe it was), I used this method to determine they were buying Calls above the SP which seems like a bullish move that should also move the Max Pain in the same upward direction.

Maybe there's a 3rd scenario where the churn of both buying and selling Options within one day causes the Volume to spike without actually moving the Open Interest wall next day. Is that what you meant? Seems less common to me if so.

Just in case it's semantics... this is a call wall right?

View attachment 1052256

Yes, that is a call wall.

My understanding is there are two ways to read these charts/numbers. The first is the way you are reading it, which is that calls are being bought, which signal optimism by the buyers. If they are right, the SP should move higher. However, the flip side of that is now there is a strong incentive by the sellers (market makers) to keep the SP from closing higher than the call wall. So the expectation from this camp is the MMs will work hard by shorting and other shenanigans to keep the SP deflated.

 

[heltok]

This is practically worthless. Needs to be a survey of voters and how they are going to vote. Probably very hard to get an accurate cross section due to all the institutional ownership but I don't see another way to make an informed prediction.

If you want the probability of the outcome, imo just go to the betting sites. If there was a better way, you could use that to make money, so clearly few people actually believe there is a better way.

Current odds are 65% for the approval of the compensation package… Odds historically are accurate +-4%.

 

[Cult Member]

Re Legacy EVs.
Lets take a look at MB EQ lineup.

There's currently what, 10 different models, quite high prices and low amount of production. And they can't figure how to make money on these.

Or VW, just revealed id.8. I think.

Tesla had already shown the recipe: make one model that can be scaled and achieve economics of scale.

Instead they keep doing these line-ups of different models, and wondering why there's no profit..

I met a Tesla owner who works at MB last weekend at the TESLA Takeover Europe. He's responsible for special cases of MB EV's the service centers could not fix. He mentioned that MB do not only have a number of models, each possible configuration multiplies the complexity of the cars. The list of options the customer is able to choose turns every car into an individual. With all the consequences of difficult-to-detect faults due to wiring and / or electromagnetic fields. He loves the simplicity of his Tesla with a second motor or a hatch as the only hardware variation. Everything else is software.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Yes, that is a call wall.

My understanding is there are two ways to read these charts/numbers. The first is the way you are reading it, which is that calls are being bought, which signal optimism by the buyers. If they are right, the SP should move higher. However, the flip side of that is now there is a strong incentive by the sellers (market makers) to keep the SP from closing higher than the call wall. So the expectation from this camp is the MMs will work hard by shorting and other shenanigans to keep the SP deflated.

I suppose we could consider these reactions as part of the outcome. But don't these forces works both ways?

OTOH, as I recall, those options were quite cheap (~3 cents only). So 300K volume turns out to be a mere $90K worth of loto tickets by many people. How is that going to move anything, right?

It's just an indicator among many out there. Quite possible investors are bullish and trying to time it this time. Full disclosure, I lost $100 total on this hunch, but I rarely engage this way. Like I said, was a hunch. (Edit: Those were next weeks I bought, so not out $100 yet.)

 

[GOVA]

I speculate that all three : Juniper refresh, Roadster and 'M2'V1 and 'M2' V2 will happen sooner than expected.

 

[ShareLofty]

I think it should be perceived that way given Elon told us Tesla will never settle an unjust case.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527749734668050433

The [email protected] mailbox no longer exists. Guess Elon fired the hardcore litigation team also

 

[SOULPEDL]

Another possibility is that this data is getting pinged very hard - meaning the servers keep choking which is also bullish for volume sake.

Huh, noticing today's Open Interest is nearly identical to what it was these past few days. Fishy, is it all being reported?

Spoiler: 2-day Comparison

Today:

Yesterday: Really? Nearly identical?

 

[lafrisbee]

Really.
I came here to lower your blood pressure. Allow you to decompress, breathe, and smile.
More of my attention is given to FSD than the other aspects of the Company. I've watched many hours and miles. Most Youtube videos now are showing the difference between one version or the other, or bitchin what some bear thinks.
But the video I want you to watch is where "A lady of a certain age" is having her friend (also a lady of a certain age) drive her Tesla on FSD while her husband is filming from the backseat.
Why is THIS video going to lower your pulse and make your future that much nicer? This video is how FSD is going to go through the roof. These are real "old" people taking other real old people in the car of "the future." THIS video is the future. THIS video is how the job is going to get done. Just one old broad having a good time showing her friends how cool FSD is. Not "X times safer than blah blah blah," just "This is so cool" from a grannie. Not a wannabe hipster, not a tech guy. Not people seeking the news thing. One granny to another.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Really.
I came here to lower your blood pressure. Allow you to decompress, breathe, and smile.
More of my attention is given to FSD than the other aspects of the Company. I've watched many hours and miles. Most Youtube videos now are showing the difference between one version or the other, or bitchin what some bear thinks.
But the video I want you to watch is where "A lady of a certain age" is having her friend (also a lady of a certain age) drive her Tesla on FSD while her husband is filming from the backseat.
Why is THIS video going to lower your pulse and make your future that much nicer? This video is how FSD is going to go through the roof. These are real "old" people taking other real old people in the car of "the future." THIS video is the future. THIS video is how the job is going to get done. Just one old broad having a good time showing her friends how cool FSD is. Not "X times safer than blah blah blah," just "This is so cool" from a grannie. Not a wannabe hipster, not a tech guy. Not people seeking the news thing. One granny to another.

Very cool, but I saw something that made me nervous at 2:33. The passenger was grabbing the wheel to demonstrate (for the first time) how to hold the wheel, and was clearly tugging on it to make her point. I personally thought it was going to disengage, but likely she was exaggerating the motion for clarity. But what did the driver learn? Possibly poor behavior.

In early Beta's, I nearly plowed a barrier wall trying to compensate for a bump while on a turning overpass at 60mph. It is crucial to know how much force is needed, and how much is too much. I've adapted a technique to prevent this action from over-reacting by limiting the travel of my arm using my leg. It's the posture I take when I'm turning high speed and there is some risk if disengaging at that moment. This car has extremely fast response to steering that most have never ever even imagined was possible.

Instead, I would introduce disengage right away by getting the newbie to pull the wheel out of FSD (as one option), very low speed. Keep in mind, learning at task involving skill is challenging to impossible when there is fear (unless we're talking torture). So best get that "loss of control" feeling out of the way quickly. They have complete control, it's a key point to make clear.

Ideally, they should to know:
1. that it's OK to take over control this way,
2. the approximate amount of force needed to respond to the warning vs disengagement,
3. how to minimize over-correcting, and
4. how to correct for radical disengagement. (Good luck on this part, which is why the above is needed)

 

[unk45]

Re Legacy EVs.
Lets take a look at MB EQ lineup.

There's currently what, 10 different models, quite high prices and low amount of production. And they can't figure how to make money on these.

Or VW, just revealed id.8. I think.

...

Instead they keep doing these line-ups of different models, and wondering why there's no profit..

I'm uncomfortable to be in this position, but some perspective might be in order.
Both MB and VW have their share of unforced errors. Both, however do have platform architectures that allow putting numerous models on the same capex base. VAG is known for their capacity to share dimensions and specifications of multitudinous parts, sharing many components not consumer-visible from the Skoda Citigo to the Bugatti Chiron.

That is not the same as production efficiency Tesla-style, that is emulated with stellar success by companies such as BYD and Geely. Nothing about that detracts from the inability, thus far, of those two to make BEV automobiles well enough to make them profitable. Both appear to be doing just that with commercial vehicles from small vans to over-the-road large trucks and also busses.

 

[Tiger]

Seriously funny:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796553662543847747

 

[wipster]

Toyota have read my playbook:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796504405661122766

Another example of how headlines (including ads and commercials) can deceive using percentages and statistics...

I always used to enjoy the various graphs and charts in Playboy... even got a A for using them in my undergrad Statistics course!

 

[sunwarriors]

Really.
I came here to lower your blood pressure. Allow you to decompress, breathe, and smile.
More of my attention is given to FSD than the other aspects of the Company. I've watched many hours and miles. Most Youtube videos now are showing the difference between one version or the other, or bitchin what some bear thinks.
But the video I want you to watch is where "A lady of a certain age" is having her friend (also a lady of a certain age) drive her Tesla on FSD while her husband is filming from the backseat.
Why is THIS video going to lower your pulse and make your future that much nicer? This video is how FSD is going to go through the roof. These are real "old" people taking other real old people in the car of "the future." THIS video is the future. THIS video is how the job is going to get done. Just one old broad having a good time showing her friends how cool FSD is. Not "X times safer than blah blah blah," just "This is so cool" from a grannie. Not a wannabe hipster, not a tech guy. Not people seeking the news thing. One granny to another.

Or, you see one of these videos and debate whether it's worth it to risk your life today:

MSN

Problem I still see is since it works pretty decently, this lulls people into a sense of confidence, until a bad event happens. Are the risks >> benefits for unsupervised? Should the system just shut off FSD if the weather is bad, foggy?

 

[Zero CO2]

light day OT... CT steer by wire probably being underestimated by most pundits

for those still waiting for CT you will be slowly blown away by steer by wire/4wheel steering ... it is fantastic i got in my model S last night after driving CT for 2 weeks ... Model S feels like a POS with giant sloppy steering wheel ... it is game over steer by wire with squircle is the way to go for all vehicles ... Tesla has moved the goal posts again

 

[uscbucsfan]

light day OT... CT steer by wire probably being underestimated by most pundits

for those still waiting for CT you will be slowly blown away by steer by wire ... it is fantastic i got in my model S last night after driving CT for 2 weeks ... Model S feels like a POS with giant sloppy steering wheel ... it is game over steer by wire with squircle is the way to go for all vehicles ... Tesla has moved the goal posts again

Not a fan of the squircle at all, but the steering was really cool in my limited drive.

I prefer the Yoke...maybe Squircle over the new MS/X wheel, but I don't particularly like that wheel design.

Yoke+SBW would be the best of both worlds.