Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

View attachment 1057833

The Model 3 refresh has not boosted sales in China.

I’m not sure the chart shows what you say it does. Shows clear boost following the highland refresh in Q4 2023.

Besides all car models need to be refreshed every few years just to maintain sales (keep design fresh and new features) and to hopefully add production efficiencies.

If you haven’t noticed all carmakers refresh all their models on a frequent basis, regardless of whether they are growing or shrinking sales.

 

[Thekiwi]

Regarding the new high EU tariffs on Chinese made EVs: While the initial reaction from TSLA investors was the impact it will have on model 3, I think more consideration needs to be given on how it actually might be very positive for Made-in-Germany Model Y sales.

Surely without a flood of cheap Chinese SUV EVs, Model Y will have a much better value perspective against the remaining EU made EV competition?

What say our EU based members? Is this a plausible outcome?

 

[Seattle]

@Troy now keeps his estimates private to his patreon members. Good for him, I’m sure it’s not worth the hassle he was getting when providing them for free.

From a rough perspective Q2 looks to be:

- Europe: Down
- China: Flat-ish
- USA: Up
- ROW:

I hope the results are that good. I assume these are vs 2023 q2? Based on other people's random info, I'm thinking q2 US sales will be below q2 last year but it's all just guesswork.

Besides all my criticism of Tesla and Musk, his achievements (with a cast of 100s of thousands) are important and the rest of the world will benefit with what tesla and spaceX did. I want them to succeed and grow and pull the rest of the car industry along against their will!

 

[TesslaBull]

If I could get solar here for $16k, I'd already have it. The return is more complicated to calculate, because your panels are basically worth zero after 15 years and your shingles need replaced (in Florida good luck making much past 15 years)

Panels are warranted for 25 years. How do you figure they are "basically worth zero after 15 years"? Have you actually gotten a quote? Do you have an extraordinarily difficult installation that is driving the cost way up?

If I lived somewhere that shingles only lasted 15 years, I'd install a better roof. High quality roofs in Europe last hundreds of years. Even metal roofs here should last a good while i.e 40-70 years.

Here's a quote from Tesla for a home in central Florida($18,350)

 

[scaesare]

If Tesla was an actually transparent company we'd be able to see the trend lines of each model in the quarterly P&D report.

You know, transparency would be nice....

 

[scaesare]

You wrote "hybrids" and "many EVs", not "hybrids with all the relevant features of a Tesla" and "Teslas".
The market doesn't all care about all the features in a Tesla.
RAV4 Hybrid with the features I really care about is $34.2k, Prius $33k, Corolla $27.3k*, Camry $31.2k*.
For BEVs, ignoring the Leaf, the cheapest long-range BEV with sufficient specs is the Kona SEL, at $36.7k.
Maybe when Chevrolet releases the Boltium it'd come in closer.

* Would not want because sedan.

What is your evidence for this underlined assertion?

Given that the 3 and Y have been sales leaders in the last few years, it would seem that the market does care, especially if lower priced alternatives are available.

 

[Thekiwi]

I doubt the EU tariffs will make a big difference, because they're as low as they are; and because MIC costs are low; and the Chinese will expand EU production.

Also we don't yet know whether there will be tariffs on Model 3's. Any Tesla response will be harmful. Eat the tariffs, increased cost. Increase prices, less competitive advantage. Import from Fremont, higher cost. Build in Germany, higher cost and it would mean expending capital on something that's not their new direction.

All IMHO. And I'm not an EU member.

Maybe I am misunderstanding - why do you think the new EU tariffs are low? They are increasing from 10% to 27.4% at the low end to 48% at the high end. Whereas Tesla’s made-in-Germany Model Y will stay the same price. Also Tesla has the possible option of exporting Model 3 from USA to EU and avoiding the new tariff.

China companies will take some time to setup EU production, and at that point they are paying the same EU labour costs as Tesla is.

 

[Iain]

Panels are warranted for 25 years. How do you figure they are "basically worth zero after 15 years"? Have you actually gotten a quote? Do you have an extraordinarily difficult installation that is driving the cost way up?

If I lived somewhere that shingles only lasted 15 years, I'd install a better roof. High quality roofs in Europe last hundreds of years. Even metal roofs here should last a good while i.e 40-70 years.

Here's a quote from Tesla for a home in central Florida($18,350)

View attachment 1057938

This year I replaced my roof for a new solar system and was surprised all of my quotes had a 50-year warranty on the shingles. It has been a long time since I needed a new roof so I wasn't aware these new composite shingles lasted that long.

 

[Fred42]

Maybe I am misunderstanding - why do you think the new EU tariffs are low? They are increasing from 10% to 27.4% at the low end to 48% at the high end. Whereas Tesla’s made-in-Germany Model Y will stay the same price. Also Tesla has the possible option of exporting Model 3 from USA to EU and avoiding the new tariff.

China companies will take some time to setup EU production, and at that point they are paying the same EU labour costs as Tesla is.

The high tariff is 38.1%. 17.4% for BYD. On top of existing 10% tariff. On the landed cost of the import, not the retail price. And these tariffs are paired with low cost China production.

Exporting Model 3 from Fremont means shifting from low cost Shanghai plant to high cost assembly plant.

 

[Musskiah]

Tesla Model Y Is the Most American-Made Car for the Third Consecutive Year

Tesla Model Y has topped the American-made Index for the third time, although other Tesla models have ranked lower than in previous years

www.autoevolution.com

Ergo...you don't own a MY, you aren't a real 'Merican!

 

[heltok]

I listened to the latest Elon interview:

Here he says:
It'll be capable of doing a wide range of tasks, so basically, if you just ask it to walk your dog, take care of your house, babysit the kids, teach the kids, cook dinner, or play the piano, it can handle it. It's a generalized humanoid robot, and I think everyone will want one because why not, you know? I think there will be at least one for every person and then a whole bunch more in industry making things. My guess is 20 billion humanoid robots out there.

So like Elon said later in the interview, I tried to simulate how that world would look like. If I had an ideal helper, $0/h cost, can do everything expertly, what would I use it for? We are currently doing a rebuild and I realized we probably should have added a chefs kitchen for the robot. And maybe having that flower garden that requires so much maintenance. Then I realize how small I am thinking... Then it hit me, the first robots will have a crazy demand and getting one shipped to me early might be tricky. It will be like Cybertruck or Apple vision but so much more crazy demand for them as they are actually very useful. So the question is how much will the foundation series of them cost? My guess is >$100k. And as they keep scaling up production, their usefulness and mainstream knowledge of them will likely also scale up. So I think there will be a long time of struggle of getting one. And yeah, Tesla will be making so high margins on the first billion robots...

 

[wtlloyd]

If you think the vast majority of those vehicles sell for anywhere near the base price, you're fooling yourself or being deliberately misleading (I used to work in the auto biz, sorry those are 'get you on the lot' prices!)

In regard to the "people don't want EVs they want hybrids" I have a somewhat unique perspective as I have:
-90k miles in a Chevy Volt, 60% of which were electric
-300k miles in two Tesla Model 3s (the first one got hit and totaled at 200k)
-have given rides for 10,000+ people and have had literally thousands of conversations with people from all over the world about this (I drive in a big tourist mecca).

I would buy another Model 3 before I would take a Volt or something like it for free- and I still say it was a good car and I liked it at the time. (Yes, I'm assuming I couldn't just flip it.)

It's a little depressing just how effective the misinformation campaign by those protecting their market share has been. Most people are stunned how easy it is for me to drive to Key West, FL or anywhere in between (from CA) and to hear about my many road trips. Most people haven't really thought how much easier an EV is to own, especially due to the lack of maintenance and it being "full every morning" if you can charge near home and how "range anxiety" is for the most part a created, artificial problem. Don't even get me started on the performance of the car or FSD.

Is it a little better than when I first drove a Model 3 home almost six years ago to the day? Maybe a little, but overall in some ways it is even worse. People are even more entrenched. The media click bait misinformation, automotive media litany of misleading headlines, news stories from organizations aligned with big oil (guess!), have truly taken control of the narrative. It is far easier to influence people to make up their mind than to get them to change it once it has been madet house uedp. I don't even like Gary Black much but on this one topic, I'm sorry, he really has his finger on the pulse of reality. People at Tesla and some ardent Tesla supporters do not. They need to aggressively push back against this misinformation, including through legal means when warranted.

Stayed in a gu

If you think the vast majority of those vehicles sell for anywhere near the base price, you're fooling yourself or being deliberately misleading (I used to work in the auto biz, sorry those are 'get you on the lot' prices!)

In regard to the "people don't want EVs they want hybrids" I have a somewhat unique perspective as I have:
-90k miles in a Chevy Volt, 60% of which were electric
-300k miles in two Tesla Model 3s (the first one got hit and totaled at 200k)
-have given rides for 10,000+ people and have had literally thousands of conversations with people from all over the world about this (I drive in a big tourist mecca).

I would buy another Model 3 before I would take a Volt or something like it for free- and I still say it was a good car and I liked it at the time. (Yes, I'm assuming I couldn't just flip it.)

It's a little depressing just how effective the misinformation campaign by those protecting their market share has been. Most people are stunned how easy it is for me to drive to Key West, FL or anywhere in between (from CA) and to hear about my many road trips. Most people haven't really thought how much easier an EV is to own, especially due to the lack of maintenance and it being "full every morning" if you can charge near home and how "range anxiety" is for the most part a created, artificial problem. Don't even get me started on the performance of the car or FSD.

Is it a little better than when I first drove a Model 3 home almost six years ago to the day? Maybe a little, but overall in some ways it is even worse. People are even more entrenched. The media click bait misinformation, automotive media litany of misleading headlines, news stories from organizations aligned with big oil (guess!), have truly taken control of the narrative. It is far easier to influence people to make up their mind than to get them to change it once it has been made up. I don't even like Gary Black much but on this one topic, I'm sorry, he really has his finger on the pulse of reality. People at Tesla and some ardent Tesla supporters do not. They need to aggressively push back against this misinformation, including through legal means when warranted.

Stayed at a Guesthouse in Oregon last night. Got free level 2 charging, 10% up to 94%. That's probably a $60-$80 fuel equivalent, free to me. You can find plenty of places offering free or minimal fee overnight charging. Very nice to skip a charging stop on my drive today.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I’m not sure the chart shows what you say it does. Shows clear boost following the highland refresh in Q4 2023.

Besides all car models need to be refreshed every few years just to maintain sales (keep design fresh and new features) and to hopefully add production efficiencies.

If you haven’t noticed all carmakers refresh all their models on a frequent basis, regardless of whether they are growing or shrinking sales.

The Model 3 trend line is down.

 

[Seattle]

This year I replaced my roof for a new solar system and was surprised all of my quotes had a 50-year warranty on the shingles. It has been a long time since I needed a new roof so I wasn't aware these new composite shingles lasted that long.

I've always heard that the companies don't last that long, so that's how they have really long warranties - they last a good amount of that time but the company is sold or closed or the previous owner dies and no one remembers or whatever before the long term warranties are claimed in case of failures.

 

[Tachyon]

Walking the streets of Reykjavik, came across this Cyberboat.

 

[y_naught]

Should we give 15+% of a company to a previously successful CEO who stopped paying attention for a year or two except half showing up at important events (remember the last, unorganized weird CT event where a few people drove off with them), right when that company's sales are suddenly dropping, unlike the rest of the industry? The answer is no.

That’s not the right question, since we already did give him the package. The question you are asking is, should we take away the package we gave him when he has already delivered his end?

 

[wipster]

The Model 3 trend line is down.

If it is (which I find very hard to believe) it won't be for long in WA state since the $7,500 Fed battery rebate is back for M3LR (and performance I believe), because beginning August the state will giving $5K sales discounts and up to $9K lease discount for EV's ( meant for people with lower incomes) bringing the starting price for an M3LR to $34,990! And honestly, other than a couple grand for paint, I really don't think I would need anything more. And this is for what most reviewers call the Best Car in the World!

And we're not even talking about the lower priced vehicle soon to be coming off the existing production lines. Honestly, I really don't get the naysayers and complainers on this forum recently and can understand why we've lost some of most intelligent posters. It's just not worth the effort to respond anymore. The future looks brighter now than ever, and while the current SP may not reflect it, it will soon... you know in 2 weeks.

 

[StapleGun]

Should we give 15+% of a company to a previously successful CEO who stopped paying attention for a year or two except half showing up at important events (remember the last, unorganized weird CT event where a few people drove off with them), right when that company's sales are suddenly dropping, unlike the rest of the industry? The answer is no.

If he 10X's the value of the company between the start and end of the agreed upon compensation plan, then yes. Duh.

 

[capster]

FWIW once the deal was struck, it needs to be honored IMO. I agree with the majority on that.

But no one is answering the underlying question- I can't think of a single founder / large shareholder/ key man who got such a deal. Why should Musk? It's considered matter of old-school honor by many (including Buffett and Munger, IMO the gold standard in corporate ethics) to simply benefit by the vast increase to your net worth based on your large existing ownership. Musk's NW went up by tens of billions anyway when Tesla 15x'd. He needs another $50B?

Yeah, I get it, that's a minority opinion here, and you guys voted with your wallets for the 2018 package so that's all that matters. I just don't understand why.

It will be interesting to see if others now try to get similar deals. I'm not sure if anyone has even tried before this.....I guess I've got to give credit to Musk for having the stones to even propose the deal.

In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king, or technoking as the case may be. That’s why.

Breaking through the wall of opposition to EV’s is a staggering achievement. You really need some understanding, insider understanding even, of the fossil fuel and ICE transportation megalith to understand this fully. His achievements are on the order of those of Julius Caesar.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I listened to the latest Elon interview:

Here he says:
It'll be capable of doing a wide range of tasks, so basically, if you just ask it to walk your dog, take care of your house, babysit the kids, teach the kids, cook dinner, or play the piano, it can handle it. It's a generalized humanoid robot, and I think everyone will want one because why not, you know? I think there will be at least one for every person and then a whole bunch more in industry making things. My guess is 20 billion humanoid robots out there.

So like Elon said later in the interview, I tried to simulate how that world would look like. If I had an ideal helper, $0/h cost, can do everything expertly, what would I use it for? We are currently doing a rebuild and I realized we probably should have added a chefs kitchen for the robot. And maybe having that flower garden that requires so much maintenance. Then I realize how small I am thinking... Then it hit me, the first robots will have a crazy demand and getting one shipped to me early might be tricky. It will be like Cybertruck or Apple vision but so much more crazy demand for them as they are actually very useful. So the question is how much will the foundation series of them cost? My guess is >$100k. And as they keep scaling up production, their usefulness and mainstream knowledge of them will likely also scale up. So I think there will be a long time of struggle of getting one. And yeah, Tesla will be making so high margins on the first billion robots...

Multiple reasons why the early *years* of Optimus production go to industry, not retail.
- simple jobs for 3 shifts, greater ROI for buyer/lessee
- one customer many bots simplify the handover
- dirty/danger/drudge jobs galore
- factories already adhere to rigorous safety regimes. Until mature/proven bots need this
- national interest (gdp boost wins over homes w folded laundry)