Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GhostSkater]

Besides being struck by the article's comment (from a stock analyst, though) that Tesla's 4680
cell yield is only 20%, there is another tidbit with more veracity which intrigues me.

That is, the LG cell can envelopes, made out of nickel-plated steel, weigh 70-80 grams each.
Assuming 75g and 1360 cells per Cybertruck, that's 102kg (225 lbs.), a significant fraction
of the Cybertruck battery pack weight (720 kg/1590 lbs. from EPA documentation cited by
Wikipedia).

So, why not go to aluminum for the cans, saving much weight? Here's some technical info
from a 4680 specialist, indicating only 28 grams for their version, with claims of competitive
strength relative to 78 gram steel:

Aluminium 4680 Cell Can Structural Performance - Battery Design

With cell to pack and cell to chassis battery designs we need to look at the Aluminium 4680 Cell Can Structural Performance.

www.batterydesign.net

I have 99.9% certainty that that 20% is completely wrong

If that were the case Elon would have either killed the project and fired the entire team, not just leaders at this stage

 

[EQC_]

Besides being struck by the article's comment (from a stock analyst, though) that Tesla's 4680
cell yield is only 20%, ...

Just a random thought...but I wonder if that analyst's comment uses a different (wrong) meaning of "yield." In this case, very roughly, Cybertruck pack and truck production is at about 1000 per week. The ultimate goal is more like 5,000 per week...poof, 20%.

I don't think I've heard lately how the giga texas 4680 line construction/commissioning/operation are. IIRC, at some point they had 1 4680 cell line running...with plans to get 4 total running in a few months, and an additional 4 lines running (for 8 total) some months after that. Is that still the plan? And, do we know where Tesla is at in that progression?

 

[FreqFlyer]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1805248563728748782

LG 4680

Tesla has other products than the Cybertruck that could use these. New car debuting 8/8 comes to mind. More Model Ys and maybe finally the Model 3.

 

[GatorMeat]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1805248563728748782

LG 4680

Aren't LG batteries a step down from Panasonic? Poorer range, slower charging? Pass on LG

 

[Knightshade]

Aren't LG batteries a step down from Panasonic? Poorer range, slower charging? Pass on LG

That's true of their 2170 cells (though the different isn't really significant for range, AFAIK it's like 1-2%- charge speed gap is larger but again not like "Tesla vs. a Bolt" bad or antyhing).

Currently Panasonic has no 4680 cells in production cars (in fact AFAIK they haven't even decided for sure to produce any 4680s in the US- last news I saw was they might decide yes/no by end of this year)-- so we've no idea how they'd compare to LGs version of them.

 

[samn]

...
The Path Between The Seas, by a David McCulloch, published in 1977. So, well before Elon or any shenanigans with Tesla.

It's an interesting read about how the Panama Canal got built. As it happens, there was this crazed Frenchman, name of Vicomte Ferdinand de Lesseps. Not a man with an engineering degree of any type, but a really good diplomat who could move Heaven and Earth towards a dream he fancied. The first goal he fancied and actually Made Happen was the Suez Canal. I am not kidding: this fellow really appears to be the Musk-like figure of his day.

Interesting story and nice coincidence that we're down on a vacation in Panama right now and just toured the locks at the canal yesterday. We saw a car carrier (a RORO ship which I recognized) transiting the locks. The canal is an amazing thing to see. Thanks for sharing!

 

[EQC_]

Aren't LG batteries a step down from Panasonic? Poorer range, slower charging? Pass on LG

*Edit to say: Ninja'd by Knightshade .


I believe you are correct that LG's 2170's are slighly lower performing than the Panasonic 2170's.

But, if Tesla can buy and use LG cells, that adds to Tesla's supply of batteries and will allow them to produce more vehicles (or stationary storage, or whatever). That is a good thing.

However, your complaint seems to imply that Tesla is making some sort of bad decision here-- is that right? Are you trying to say that Tesla should just buy more Panasonic batteries instead? Because Tesla can't buy more Panasonic cells than Panasonic makes...and these LG cells will be IN ADDITION to what Tesla can get from other sources (like Panasonic, other suppliers, and Tesla's in-house production).

Just like the discussion on Tesla's in-house 4680's: There is no replacement of one cell supply with another here...this is an ADDITIONAL supply. Tesla has frequently said that they will buy and use any and all qualified batteries from suppliers.

Nothing in this story says or implies Tesla is rejecting Panasonic in favor of LG or anything like that.

Tesla still buys and uses all the Panasonic 18650's they get from Japan, and all the Panasonic 2170's that come from Giga Nevada, and Tesla will likely buy and use all Panasonic 4680's whenever Panasonic gets their factory for those built and running. Whatever cells Tesla buys from LG will be IN ADDITION to Panasonic cells, and IN ADDITION to Tesla's in-house cells, and IN ADDITION to whatever other supplier cells Tesla can adapt and make use of.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Been waiting for Tesla to do this. Not change for change's sake ( no stalks) but real progression. This is not a new concept and talked about for years. That is the problem, the other car makers talking, not doing. Would be cool to see Tesla put this into production. RT?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1805317149881225446

 

[growler23]

Just a random thought...but I wonder if that analyst's comment uses a different (wrong) meaning of "yield." In this case, very roughly, Cybertruck pack and truck production is at about 1000 per week. The ultimate goal is more like 5,000 per week...poof, 20%.

I don't think I've heard lately how the giga texas 4680 line construction/commissioning/operation are. IIRC, at some point they had 1 4680 cell line running...with plans to get 4 total running in a few months, and an additional 4 lines running (for 8 total) some months after that. Is that still the plan? And, do we know where Tesla is at in that progression?

I frequently watch the Joe Tegtmeyer flyovers of Giga Texas. He talks about each of the process areas and what has changed as the drone flies by. There was, for quite a few weeks, a buildup of equipment outside of the known 4680 production area of the main building (north side IIRC). A week or two ago, all of that battery-making equipment was moved inside, no longer visible to the prying eyes of the drone.
I consider that progress, in that the construction inside was to the level where they could move equipment in, but it is anyone's guess as to whether that was all new 4680 equipment, and if so, how long to get them all installed and calibrated.
10,000 foot view: it will get done at the speed of construction, which at Giga Texas seems fast for many construction projects, but is never as fast as investors' minds move.

 

[FreqFlyer]

More info...

Tesla in Talks With Michelin To Test New Airless Tires

Tesla is in talks with Michelin to test airless Uptis tires on its vehicles. These puncture-proof, sustainable tires could hit the market by year's end.

www.notateslaapp.com

"ptis tires are also lighter and more aerodynamically efficient than regular tires – the open-cell design notwithstanding. Interestingly enough, many would think that the open cells would cause additional drag, but initial testing on EVs from Michelin has been “described as positive”.

If the tires truly do reduce drag, or at least cause similar amounts of drag to conventional tires, the reduced weight of airless tires could improve efficiency for EVs even further. This is a tire to watch if you’re interested in increasing your own Tesla’s range.

Menegaux also mentioned that these airless tires would likely be limited to “certain types of applications”, though he didn’t mention which application or why they’d be limited. It’s possible it could be limited to certain weather conditions or types of roads. They could possibly be a good fit for autonomous vehicles, like Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi, which is set to be revealed on 8/8."

 

[unk45]

Was surprised to see that Brazil generates 90+% of electricity from renewables - so I think EVs will do well

That is slightly misleading./s Brazil generates ~66% of its energy from hydroelectric plants, which themselves cause serious environmental challenges. both wind and solar are gaining rapid growth, primarily in the Northeast, but we're not really doing so well as w claim to be doing. That also fails to note that we are rapidly deforesting the Pantanal, the world's largest wetlands, and count as progress reduced rate of Amazon basin deforestation.

Then wonder the it is quite difficult to gain permission to install a complete off-grid residence in Rio de Janeiro. Not impossible, but difficult.

So, sadly, no good surprise. Were that it was true.

 

[wtlloyd]

I have 99.9% certainty that that 20% is completely wrong

If that were the case Elon would have either killed the project and fired the entire team, not just leaders at this stage

They would NEVER have gotten out of pilot production in Fremont with only 20% yield.
Absurd what some people will write these days.

 

[wtlloyd]

Aren't LG batteries a step down from Panasonic? Poorer range, slower charging? Pass on LG

Chemistry and form factor rule the results. Tesla has a very high spec quality threshold and uses cells from most vendors who can reach it. No reports of quality differences between LG and Panasonic.
Please don't write rubbish without proof.

 

[unk45]

Been waiting for Tesla to do this. Not change for change's sake ( no stalks) but real progression. This is not a new concept and talked about for years. That is the problem, the other car makers talking, not doing. Would be cool to see Tesla put this into production. RT?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1805317149881225446

These have been in development for years, and have allegedly made major advances within the last three years.

MICHELIN Uptis :: Michelin North America, Inc.

MICHELIN Uptis (Unique Puncture-Proof Tire System) is an airless mobility solution for passenger vehicles, which eliminates the dangerous risk of flat tires and blowouts that result from punctures or road hazards.

michelinmedia.com

https://www.tirebusiness.com/manufacturers/frances-postal-system-test-michelins-uptis-airless-tire

 

[MP3Mike]

That also fails to note that we are rapidly defrosting the Pantanal,

How dare them. The frosting is always the best part.

 

[GSP]

I am not believing the 20% yield number, but don’t forget that Panasonic had huge problems with yield for the new 2170 lines at Giga Nevada. It took years to get yield up to 80-90% range, which is a good number for a cell line, AFAIK.

GSP

 

[unk45]

FWIW, there's nothing about Teslas that make you exempt from needing wiper blades or your washer fluid topped off-- and the A/C filter does indeed need to be changed every 2-3 years (depending which model and filter you have) same as the Volvo--- though if you live someplace with Ranger service they'll come do it at your house... (not for free though- the wiper blades aren't free either-- they HAVE topped off my wiper fluid free though!)

To clarify, I did not mean to imply that those things did not need doing. Just that calling them a required service seems odd. On my Tesla's I have done those when needed myself.

 

[unk45]

How dare them. The frosting is always the best part.

oops!

 

[elasalle]

That is slightly misleading./s Brazil generates ~66% of its energy from hydroelectric plants, which themselves cause serious environmental challenges. both wind and solar are gaining rapid growth, primarily in the Northeast, but we're not really doing so well as w claim to be doing. That also fails to note that we are rapidly defrosting the Pantanal, the world's largest wetlands, and count as progress reduced rate of Amazon basin deforestation.

Then wonder the it is quite difficult to gain permission to install a complete off-grid residence in Rio de Janeiro. Not impossible, but difficult.

So, sadly, no good surprise. Were that it was true.

It's a pity/crime that the rain forests are getting destroyed ... but what does that have to do with % or renewable electricity generation?
is the 90% electricity from renewables number wrong?

Preserving the Amazon would be best for all humankind, but it's destruction likely means more land for solar arrays. Seems one of the main culprits is cattle ranching? ..cheers!!

 

[jerry33]

These have been in development for years, and have allegedly made major advances within the last three years.

MICHELIN Uptis :: Michelin North America, Inc.

MICHELIN Uptis (Unique Puncture-Proof Tire System) is an airless mobility solution for passenger vehicles, which eliminates the dangerous risk of flat tires and blowouts that result from punctures or road hazards.

michelinmedia.com

https://www.tirebusiness.com/manufacturers/frances-postal-system-test-michelins-uptis-airless-tire

For years means since at least the 1970s.