Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Is that the wave effect that was talked about during the conference call?
The deliveries drop in Europe because Fremont is now producing US cars and no boats were arriving in Europe?

Yes, that's how things have always been done at Tesla re: international deliveries - send cars overseas early in the quarter, which take weeks to arrive, then stopping international production and focusing only on domestic to avoid having lots of inventory sitting on ships or docks at quarter-end. It's good for making your quarterly statements look good, but leads to delivery hell. And if you manage delivery hell poorly, then your quarterly statements look bad regardless

 

[lklundin]

Many signs are emerging that Tesla FUD is spread by German interests. skabooska had a connection, just today a Daimler engineer was FUDing on Tesla.

It may be just some individuals or it may be more organized. Hard to say for now.

If German FUD seems bad now, just wait until it is out in the open that domestic sales are falling because people are deferring their car purchase until they can get a BEV (from Tesla).

I mentioned my local VW dealer is closing, losing 45 jobs in a 20k community. I asked around and the general belief is that VW headquarters are offering too difficult terms for the sales and leasing contracts - which is plausible.

But if people start to see Tesla as a scapegoat for the demise of the proud German auto industry, then I think the FUD will be cranked up to 11.

 

[Pras]

If German FUD seems bad now, just wait until it is out in the open that domestic sales are falling because people are deferring their car purchase until they can get a BEV (from Tesla).

I mentioned my local VW dealer is closing, losing 45 jobs in a 20k community. I asked around and the general belief is that VW headquarters are offering too difficult terms for the sales and leasing contracts - which is plausible.

But if people start to see Tesla as a scapegoat for the demise of the proud German auto industry, then I think the FUD will be cranked up to 11.

So far the biggest victims of Tesla are German luxury cars. So, natural to see German backlash.

Tesla already has Grohman and is considering building a factory in Germany. Hopefully that keeps the public more sympathetic to Tesla.

 

[lklundin]

With lots of real world training data examples, which tesla has, it should be fairly trivial to train the neural net to handle any common driving case. The only thing to worry about with Tesla’s, or anyones, approach is the uncommon things that occur while driving. Tesla’s vision system, massive amount of training data, and now onboard processing power is a massive advantage.

Learn more about how neutral nets work and specifically how they are trained and you will understand Tesla’s advantage here. It is very very important. This isn’t something you throw man hours at to try and engineer your way through, or some algorithm you need to solve.

Disclaimer: I’m a software engineer

I am also a software engineer, working close to the hardware, and after having watched Bannon and Karparthy a couple of times now I am very impressed.

The second time I watched it with my wife who works with software quality assurance and who has very broad driving skills, spanning the wide spectrum from the anarchistic Sicilan style to the fast but disciplined German one.

As for the FSD computer's safe handling of supported and especially unsupported driving cases, we came to the conclusion that it is essential that with every upgrade of the Neural Network, Tesla needs to provide a pretty detailed set of release notes.

This information for the driver is very important, so they have some chance to anticipate when the car enters a traffic scenario that it is less likely to be able to handle or where its behaviour is likely to have changed with the latest update.

We are both very well aware that while driving on AP/FSD the driver is supposed to pay attention at all times, but since the notice provided by the FSD when it has to disengage can be very brief, we strongly feel it will increase the safety when the driver has a good knowledge of the scenarios the FSD has been trained for, so they still can anticipate when the FSD is likely to not perform optimally.

Naturally, we are both excited to try this out in reality, hopefully in not too long...

 

[Pras]

I am also a software engineer, working close to the hardware, and after having watched Bannon and Karparthy a couple of times now I am very impressed.

The second time I watched it with my wife who works with software quality assurance and who has very broad driving skills, spanning the wide spectrum from the anarchistic Sicilan style to the fast but disciplined German one.

As for the FSD computer's safe handling of supported and especially unsupported driving cases, we came to the conclusion that it is essential that with every upgrade of the Neural Network, Tesla needs to provide a pretty detailed set of release notes.

This information for the driver is very important, so they have some chance to anticipate when the car enters a traffic scenario that it is less likely to be able to handle or where its behaviour is likely to have changed with the latest update.

We are both very well aware that while driving on AP/FSD the driver is supposed to pay attention at all times, but since the notice provided by the FSD when it has to disengage can be very brief, we strongly feel it will increase the safety when the driver has a good knowledge of the scenarios the FSD has been trained for, so they still can anticipate when the FSD is likely to not perform optimally.

Naturally, we are both excited to try this out in reality, hopefully in not too long...

Just from the NN training perspective, the cautions will prevent drivers from using the functionality, limiting data and its quality.

Not suggesting that safety shouldn’t be a consideration but if you want a system to improve, you will have to allow some unbiased testing.

 

[kakamora]

To those that imply the Model S needs a visual update in order to sustain demand: I can't disagree more.

Look at Porsche 911 models throughout the years. Most of them look similar, some even look identical. The exterior has only changed very gradually whilst the performance was improved time and time again, making the 911 fans drool.

The Model S is a similar story: slight visual changes (nosecone for example) but many performance upgrades, making certain current Model S owners want the newest version.

People might actually wait for the 2170s and the new battery pack architecture like the model3s

 

[InDaClub]

Sounds like FCA is "hoping" for the best outcome here. I expect their "house of brands" will be destroyed by the shift to electric cars - only time will tell.

Fiat Chrysler CEO 100% sure carmaker can survive tech disruption

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is a “house of brands” and that ensures it will be one of the few traditional automakers to survive the disruption the car industry is facing from the rise of electric and self-driving cars, CEO Mike Manley said.

Manley’s vision, like that of his iconic predecessor Sergio Marchionne, is based on the view that distinctive brands such as Jeep, Alfa Romeo and Maserati give the Italian-American company an advantage over mass-market producers.

Manley, 55, who succeeded Marchionne in July a few days before he died, is under pressure to deliver a turnaround of the automaker’s unprofitable Asia business and revamp its European operations amid massive investments needed to guide Fiat Chrysler into the era of self-driving electric cars and new mobility services.

"I’m 100 percent sure” that Fiat Chrysler will be able to survive because "we are fundamentally a house of brands," Manley said in an interview last month at the company’s Turin headquarters for a new biography of Marchionne.

 

[KarenRei]

People might actually wait for the 2170s and the new battery pack architecture like the model3s

Just like they've been waiting for the past two years? Now was the time for Tesla to make the shift if they were going to (while they were retooling the lines). They didn't. Show of hands, who thinks they'll be taking down the lines yet again the day after tomorrow, to use cells that they have a shortage of (2170s) and not use cells that they have in surplus (18650s), both of which have the same energy density (as measured by Jack Rickard)?

There's simply no logic in it. As has been repeatedly pointed out.

The next thing that might be seen along these lines - not soon - is a change in the pack (not cell) architecture. But again, to reiterate: not soon. Now was the time for that if they were going to do it. Next up on the list is surely interior cosmetic features - which might well be phased in one at a time rather than all bundled together. There's little line downtime for such changes - they're GA, humans connecting the new part rather than the old one. More of a supplier headache than a Tesla headache (excepting parts made inhouse).

 

[Mike Smith]

The 10Q

https://ir.tesla.com/node/19771/html

 

[AcesDealt]

10q is out. Looks like 200m$ in non ZEV credits. That's more than typical and will make the intrinsic margins even lower on the vehicle sales.

 

[X Fan]

Thanks to all who recommended the "ignore" feature. I had forgotten about that. And thanks to the mods for banning the "Elon shouldn't tweet" member.

Back on topic, kind of... there is apparently now a new Tesla Service Center in Albany NY (in the suburb of Latham actually). Only 160 miles from @neroden! Latham - 326 Old Niskayuna Road | Tesla. 5 miles from me

Here's a pic from a member of our local FB group...
View attachment 401849

Another anecdote: there have been 3 FL service announcements in last week.

Sarasota just had a soft opening, Pensacola opened & West Palm Beach will get a massive increase.

 

[KarenRei]

10q is out. Looks like 200m$ in non ZEV credits. That's more than typical and will make the intrinsic margins even lower on the vehicle sales.

ZEV credits affect ASP or COGS? How?

 

[KarenRei]

Another anecdote: there have been 3 FL service announcements in last week.

Sarasota just had a soft opening, Pensacola opened & West Palm Beach will get a massive increase.

Speaking of service, I've photographed what I believe to be the start of construction of the Reykjavík service / delivery centre / store. Address seems to match what was reported in the news. At present, it's just a cleared lot, with a bunch of light earth movers on it. Not sure how long it'd take to go from that to "open for business".

If that's not it, then they almost certainly would instead be sharing a building with one of the existing car dealerships there. The address reported is Krókháls 13:

Google Maps

There's multiple dealerships at that address. The one on the right is Kia. Just past it is the lot that's being cleared.

 

[ReflexFunds]

So it means nothing? That's really your position?

You may have a serious face, but you've done no serious analysis. Which company is approved for empty driver's seat in two states? Which has driven thousands of miles on public roads with an empty driver's seat? Which pulls over for emergency vehicles? (Running into them doesn't count, haha). Which has the best machine learning expertise? Which is learning about consumer behavior and logistics by running an actual service today?

These are objective facts. They don't tell the whole story, but it's absurd to ignore them.

I don't dismiss Waymo and they have some advantages, but I personally don't think they are currently on a viable path to a scalable solution and I don't think your list is all objective fact.
I haven't seen any confirmation of how many "driverless" miles Waymo has, but a few thousand miles wouldn't impress me at all given how unscalable Waymo's current solution is. Waymo is operating in flat and forever sunny Phoenix, in an isolated area which has been extensively mapped in 3D and where every junction has been individually simulated and potentially even hard coded. The Waymo "driverless cars" are also under constant HQ monitoring with people at their computer regularly overriding the car - I don't think just moving the driver from the car seat to an office is really "driverless". Even Waymo's cars with safety drivers are continuously monitored at HQ, but in this case at least one person at HQ monitors multiple cars.
In theory Waymo has access to many of the best machine learning researchers, but Google's most advanced AI team is at Deepmind in London (and I don't think has ever helped Waymo) while Google Brain in the US is also operated separately from Waymo (but sometimes collaborates). Waymo's strategy is actually very robotics and heuristics heavy rather than machine learning. This is partly because they set out on their path before the machine learning revolution of 2011, but also because a true machine learning solution needs billions of miles rather than thousand/millions of miles of data and Waymo currently has no obvious way of gathering this level of data without $100bn+ R&D investment in cars, sensors and test drivers. They are stuck with Lidar/3D maps/hard coded junctions/simulation etc because they don't have a choice.

 

[AcesDealt]

ZEV credits affect ASP or COGS? How?

It lowers the inferred asp when walking it back from the revenue numbers reported.

 

[LST]

Finally caught up on that thread.. what an ordeal.
To save time for everybody, how about shutting this thread down for the weekends and bank holidays plus some hours for after hours / pre market chit chat ? Maybe some would have time to get their lives back, or would be obliged to post in the dedicated threads ?

 

[22522]

Finally caught up on that thread.. what an ordeal.
To save time for everybody, how about shutting this thread down for the weekends and bank holidays plus some hours for after hours / pre market chit chat ? Maybe some would have time to get their lives back, or would be obliged to post in the dedicated threads ?

Not bank holidays as that is when bear raids happen - light trading days, and sometimes after hours.

Look for a little discipline and then take action - baby bathwater, whatever.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The 10Q

https://ir.tesla.com/node/19771/html

Accts Receivable, net: +$98M Q1 over Q4
Inventory: +$723.4M Q1 vs Q4​

So there it is, isn't it?

 

[jbcarioca]

Speaking of service, I've photographed what I believe to be the start of construction of the Reykjavík service / delivery centre / store. Address seems to match what was reported in the news. At present, it's just a cleared lot, with a bunch of light earth movers on it. Not sure how long it'd take to go from that to "open for business".

If that's not it, then they almost certainly would instead be sharing a building with one of the existing car dealerships there. The address reported is Krókháls 13:

Google Maps

There's multiple dealerships at that address. The one on the right is Kia. Just past it is the lot that's being cleared.

I quote your entire post because I think it is important to observe Tesla beginning to enter smaller but important markets that logistically are distinct from other larger markets. There also seems to be serious Tesla action to smooth delivery flows and improve service and parts issues. It may be a step too far to attribute that much symbolism to Reykjavik but maybe not since Karen can finally get her car with full local support.

It is also relevant that in a number of areas new service centers are opening while mobile service is rapidly expanding too. Personally, my P3D+ was just scheduled for a routine matter when I was advised that a mobile tech would do the job; my car lives a five minute walk from the nearest SC. The Florida new West Palm Beach SC, conversion of the old one to used car operations, new SC openings in at least three other areas are suggestive also. Interestingly some of these new facilities are not listed in the customer directories, suggesting that some of them are intended to support mobile service and support rather than be conventional SC’s.

Even those these are anecdotal they are corroborated with many other such reports. If these are indicative Q2 might well mark a serious improvement in stability and quality. Obviously that is the optimistic view.

 

[bdy0627]

So what's today's "FUD du jour"? So far all I've seen is the 'GF3 gonna take til 2020Q2' piece. Lol, that was literally Tesla's guidance back in the 2018'Q4 Update Letter:

"Inclusive of Gigafactory Shanghai, where we are initially aiming for 3,000 Model 3 vehicles per week, our goal is to be able to produce 10,000 vehicles per week on a sustained basis. Barring unexpected challenges with Gigafactory Shanghai, we are targeting annualized Model 3 output in excess of 500,000 units sometime between Q4 of 2019 and Q2 of 2020."​

Cheers!

I think what was confusing was Elon's statement of a run rate of 500k by the end of 2019. That was for all vehicles rather than just model 3, which still does look achievable even with just a small contribution from Shanghai.