Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FreqFlyer]

I have several questions related to MXWL acquisition and wondering what people think.

1. How will this affect the partnership with Panasonic? Would Tesla license technology to them and say "we want you to start using it and sell us cells cheaper by this much..." or start making cells on their own and say bye-bye to Panasonic? If they start building out their own production capacity and Panasonic sees it and understands that the contracts will not be renewed...how will that affect the ongoing production/partnership? Given that likely there are no other buyers with expertise to assemble cylindrical cells into batteries, so Panasonic is screwed once they lose Tesla as a customer?
Anybody thinks that Panasonic should be concerned and be discussing the strategic direction with Tesla right now?

2. The timing of implementing the new tech. I've seen some outrageous assumptions that Y will have MXWL tech in batteries when it starts production, but seriously...

Why is Tesla not selling solar roofs en masse? Every time someone asks, Elon says that they need to do a lot of testing to ensure that the product can last the warranty term. Which is a sound approach. Given the recent fiasco with installing not automotive-grade 17 inch screens into S/X, which started yellow-ing and now require replacements(or whatever reconditioning they can come up with), it seems prudent to do all that longevity/stress/etc. testing
Given all this, anybody thinks 1.5 years is enough to put a tech from the powerpoint into the real batteries? I'm thinking 4-5 years would be a moderate expectation.

3. The battery investor event.
I think it is not in Elon's interest to give hard estimates on MXWL tech making it into real cars.
If he says 3 years, I may cancel the Y order and wait 1 more year. Anybody here thinks he should be transparent and make some promises?

1. Telling Tesla is not using Panasonic in China, maybe Tesla is starting to vertically integrate battery production. What better or cheaper place than China.

2. There are also rumors, if this does not go through Tesla can license the tech, which apparently seems to have been the plan before the buyout. So, yes it is conceivable this tech may be used next year.

3. Like the FSD event, better to have Battery Tech Event while the product is starting or in production. See point #2.

 

[lascavarian]

"Rugged" interior would be prudent - where 'rugged' in most cases means higher cost.

But more importantly, the current Tesla vehicle battery warranty covers 70% of battery capacity within 100k miles, which Tesla self-insures like all other major carmakers. Increasing that to 1,000k miles would increase the warranty period by a factor of 10x - requiring significantly higher warranty reserves, at minimum.

Plus probably need a secure method of automated high speed charging to maximize availability.

 

[Maitri982]

Tesla happens to be the only company that is willing to try new tech and is actively expanding battery supply. Most OEMs want someone else to make batteries for them and they are happy to wait until they are cheap enough. The current battery companies are like.. this is the battery we make, buy or not, we dont care because everyone has a compliance car that needs our batteries and they dont care how much they cost because they are only compliance cars.

most car companies, as far as I know, don't make engines or gas tanks.

 

[intelligator]

Fiasco? Every new model from any established manufacturer, had some part that needed fixing or replacement at some point. That doesn't make that into a 'fiasco'.

Honda Odyssey's transmissions failed at a very high rate after 70k miles after warranty expired. Honda never fixed those under warranty, and no one called that a fiasco. This is from a company that was making cars for decades and using a technology that was very matured and used widely.

I agree ... OP should do a quick search for MB GL320 Oil Cooler Seals. Most fail outside warranty, some need to be replaced twice. If you are fortunate enough to get goodwill on the second time around you can save $3500+ in labor for removal and replace of top end for otherwise installing $18 dollars worth of seals in the center valley of the V6. Ours is an 08. It's a design flaw that hasn't been recalled but is instead quietly categorized as all diesels this or that...

 

[Maitri982]

Potentially much more expensive battery to get that much usage out of it? Probably also needs to have a large battery and very high charging speed to get the most % usage out of it.

Nope...Musk said specifically they would optimize around the 50KW battery pack for ride sharing. What we don't know is what car we are talking about for ride sharing. Everyone seems to assume Model 3, but it could be Model Y. It could have an entirely different interior optimized now around comfort and entertainment. who the hell knows?

 

[gluu]

So, my question is why would a custom built robotaxi cost more to build than a base Model 3? Any ideas?

It's probably an LR Model 3 Battery Pack, or maybe uses a more expensive chemistry like NMC.

 

[Remus]

Fiasco? Every new model from any established manufacturer, had some part that needed fixing or replacement at some point. That doesn't make that into a 'fiasco'.

Honda Odyssey's transmissions failed at a very high rate after 70k miles after warranty expired. Honda never fixed those under warranty, and no one called that a fiasco. This is from a company that was making cars for decades and using a technology that was very matured and used widely.

Yeah, I personally know three people got bitten by this, who probably won't buy from Honda again.

But that is a fiasco

 

[Carl Raymond]

Good read. It's probably one of the reasons Tesla is confident that soon they're battery packs will be able to reach 1M miles.

If there is tech on the way that allows a pack to do a million miles, that’s good news for robotaxis, but superfluous to requirements for the average driver.

More importantly, what does it mean for powerwalls and megapaks? This sounds like a coal killer, especially if the new process also reduces cell production cost as rumoured.

 

[M3Rider]

Fiasco? Every new model from any established manufacturer, had some part that needed fixing or replacement at some point. That doesn't make that into a 'fiasco'.

Honda Odyssey's transmissions failed at a very high rate after 70k miles after warranty expired. Honda never fixed those under warranty, and no one called that a fiasco. This is from a company that was making cars for decades and using a technology that was very matured and used widely.

This is a critical part of the car and seems that not enough future proofing was done.
Tesla's Screen Saga Shows Why Automotive Grade Matters
I agree that if that happens outside the warranty period, then Tesla might be ok, but do we want the company to cut corners like that? Would you be comfortable knowing that key parts of the car like screen or battery did not have enough stress testing to determine whether they'd last? I'm hoping that Tesla learned a lesson and will apply that lesson going forward, whether that's solar roof or MXWL tech in the battery.

 

[davecolene0606]

So, my question is why would a custom built robotaxi cost more to build than a base Model 3? Any ideas?

“Public transport grade” interior/more durable components where cycles count?

And;OR...

Auto self charging!

Fire Away!

And thanx for the direct info from Tesla, very helpful.

 

[Zero CO2]

Both Musk and the official Tesla Twitter accounts have been awfully quiet this week...

thy have entered trade war crisis mode

 

[davecolene0606]

This is a critical part of the car and seems that not enough future proofing was done.
Tesla's Screen Saga Shows Why Automotive Grade Matters
I agree that if that happens outside the warranty period, then Tesla might be ok, but do we want the company to cut corners like that? Would you be comfortable knowing that key parts of the car like screen or battery did not have enough stress testing to determine whether they'd last? I'm hoping that Tesla learned a lesson and will apply that lesson going forward, whether that's solar roof or MXWL tech in the battery.

Sandy Munro was stunned at the quality of the electronic components and declared them to be “military” grade.

Fire Away!

 

[MP3Mike]

most car companies, as far as I know, don't make engines or gas tanks.

Actually I think most car companies do make engines. That is where their expertise and investment are. They have outsourced almost everything else. This is why they are having such a hard time going EV. (They have to give up all of their expertise and start over.)

 

[Doggydogworld]

Lidar is super useful. But it doesnt stop you having to solve Vision 100%.

You can't solve vision 100%. At least not with neural nets.
Lidar can detect things your vision NN misses, or misidentifies. It's just an extra layer. It costs too much for consumer cars and you can't sell 50-100k performance sedans festooned with bulbous protrusions. But the cost is negligible for a robotaxi that can generate 30-50k/year of revenue. And nobody cares if their robotaxi has obviously visible safety equipment. In fact, most would prefer it.

 

[JRP3]

Both Musk and the official Tesla Twitter accounts have been awfully quiet this week...

It's Tuesday, Elon tweeted yesterday, Tesla the day before.

 

[Carl Raymond]

"Rugged" interior would be prudent - where 'rugged' in most cases means higher cost.

But more importantly, the current Tesla vehicle battery warranty covers 70% of battery capacity within 100k miles, which Tesla self-insures like all other major carmakers. Increasing that to 1,000k miles would increase the warranty period by a factor of 10x - requiring significantly higher warranty reserves, at minimum.

I’m kind of hoping that the million mile pack comes with a power compromise, so it can’t accelerate as fast. Taxis don’t need drag strip performance. Thus production splits into consumer optimised and taxi optimised packs.

This will prevent a massive Osborne risk the moment the new packs are rumoured to be coming.

 

[Prunesquallor]

You can't solve vision 100%. At least not with neural nets.

How come?

 

[ZeApelido]

Tesla's current mission statement doesn't include autonomous transport and probably should, especially going forward.

Dave L on Twitter

View attachment 407678

Wait are you Dave L or Dave T? This totally affects how I value your comments.

 

[M3Rider]

Sandy Munro was stunned at the quality of the electronic components and declared them to be “military” grade.

Fire Away!

He took apart 3, not S/X I believe. And I don't recall him saying he took apart the screen. I don't think Tesla makes it. Regardless, don't think he did the longevity testing to be able to comment on it.

 

[jerry33]

Actually I think most car companies do make engines. That is where their expertise and investment are. They have outsourced almost everything else. This is why they are having such a hard time going EV. (They have to give up all of their expertise and start over.)

I believe some did outsource some or all of the engines. You can tell which ones because they're the ones that went bankrupt.