Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tschmidty]

?
The pics I saw were disguised. They put weird decals around the car to hide curves and stuff. I’m sure the Taycan will look nice just like other Porsche’s

They have pics with no disguises. Have to say it still looks pretty hideous to me.

 

[Artful Dodger]

And a big THANK YOU to FCA for paying for Maxwell! How generous of them...

Yeah, the Maxwell Technologies acquistion (technically a merger) was a stock swap deal (less the ~21% of shares not tendered, which will be paid in cash at the tender price).

So approx. $46M in cash to acquire Maxwell. That's not even a MONTH of FCA cash, which continues for 3 years...

And Tesla gets to DOUBLE their battery specs with 'Maxcells' during the course of those 3 years:

• cost
• range
• lifetime

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

Anybody seen what the production Porsche Taycan looks like...?

Holy sugar, Porsche needs to fire whoever turned that concept into that monstrosity.

Photo, or it didn't happen...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anybody seen what the production Porsche Taycan looks like...?

Holy sugar, Porsche needs to fire whoever turned that concept into that monstrosity.

OT:

Well I don't know about Porsche production, but I know a 'render' when I see one:

 

[SO16]

OT:

Well I don't know about Porsche production, but I know a 'render' when I see one:

Porsche Taycan Caught Almost Naked In Latest Spy Shots

I don’t think it’s that bad. It doesn’t help that there is red tape around the brake lights. Still wouldn’t buy one though.

 

[tracksyde]

?
The pics I saw were disguised. They put weird decals around the car to hide curves and stuff. I’m sure the Taycan will look nice just like other Porsche’s

The front and side view is OK.. actually, I really like it from the front.. from the rear, it just reminds me of a Saturn SC2

 

[Alphacrux]

Porsche Taycan Caught Almost Naked In Latest Spy Shots

I don’t think it’s that bad. It doesn’t help that there is red tape around the brake lights. Still wouldn’t buy one though.

Fugly

 

[M3Rider]

Seems like a more polished (assuming the graphic looks anything like the device, there's no detail there that I can see) and expensive version of the Dryer Buddy

Exactly. Except that Brad Apelgren guy from bsaelectronics seems to not know how to ramp up or hire help, so he stopped responding to emails and now takes smth like 2mo to ship the thing. So, if somebody else can make this in volume, in a nicer package and deliver quickly, there should be a market for it.

Sure, many will install HPWCs, but a splitter can potentially be acquired and put to use much quicker, so there should be a market for it considering that Tesla sales will only grow going forward. The main difference is 'UL listing pending'. When that's done, electricians won't be able to say "it's unsafe for you".

Hopefully, more companies will make these and prices go down to some $200-300. Also, when somebody comes to a store and asks what would it take to get the home charging set up, it'd be nice to point them to a $200 solution that doesn't make a big dent in a budget.

 

[Tslynk67]

So, yeah, share price... down 3.5 bucks today, when Tesla confirmed the acquisition of a company with battery tech that could double their energy density in the next couple of years. This, I may add, against the competition that can't match Tesla's current technology and can neither source the volumes of cells that is needed to mount a credible challenge.

This is all without factoring Tesla's huge lead in autonomy - don't be drawn into the "they're in last place" bullshit, they're not, they are in front by a long way and it's going to increase very quickly. Also this doesn't take into account the hardware/software integration - aka the Mac versus the PC, if you like, where Tesla is out of sight, over the horizon.

So battery tech, autonomy and integration, for me, these are the critical success factors and no-one else is even in the frame. You can add OTA, lack of dealers, bottom-up design, GF1 and GF2, pending product launches, TE, roof shingles, etc.

Seriously, I look at the SP and I find it quite hilarious, but also somewhat comforting as I have a certain amount of common stock.

 

[Tslynk67]

Porsche Taycan Caught Almost Naked In Latest Spy Shots

I don’t think it’s that bad. It doesn’t help that there is red tape around the brake lights. Still wouldn’t buy one though.

I think they need to make the tail-lights a bit bigger...

 

[Maitri982]

So, yeah, share price... down 3.5 bucks today, when Tesla confirmed the acquisition of a company with battery tech that could double their energy density in the next couple of years. This, I may add, against the competition that can't match Tesla's current technology and can neither source the volumes of cells that is needed to mount a credible challenge.

This is all without factoring Tesla's huge lead in autonomy - don't be drawn into the "they're in last place" bullshit, they're not, they are in front by a long way and it's going to increase very quickly. Also this doesn't take into account the hardware/software integration - aka the Mac versus the PC, if you like, where Tesla is out of sight, over the horizon.

So battery tech, autonomy and integration, for me, these are the critical success factors and no-one else is even in the frame. You can add OTA, lack of dealers, bottom-up design, GF1 and GF2, pending product launches, TE, roof shingles, etc.

Seriously, I look at the SP and I find it quite hilarious, but also somewhat comforting as I have a certain amount of common stock.

I think the parallels with Amazon are quite interesting. Amazon was very willing to forego profits for many years to built up vertically and to build large moats around their business. Now they are reaping the rewards of that effort.

Tesla still has significant capital expenditures to come in order to continue on the grand plan, so we are not there yet. The other problem is that to fund this plan you need to sell and make more cars to get the $$$ you need to expand more. So it all comes back to plain old manufacturing execution. The demand IMO is there in spades, they just need to make all the cars\batteries people want to buy and not one more...and do it with heavy automation.

So we need one more gigafactory started in europe somewhere. Maybe after that one on Mars or Moon? (kidding...but wouldn't that be cool?) We need the Model Y and it needs to be built cost effectively and at scale. With the SEXY lineup business should be good as long as they then iterate on key items like battery tech (e.g. more range, cycles, etc), interior improvements to car (they still aren't as nice inside IMO as an S-Class), and FSD. Each of these are then demand levers for existing tech such that Tesla can be huge company with much higher revenues than now.

Of course there is semi and pickup and roadster, but part of me wishes they would focus on the SEXY lineup + solar + storage and get really really good making these things and then build out service centers and superchargers and then, and only then, expand the product portfolio.

Some level of ambition is good, too much ambition can be deadly. With all that said, I am excited to see the pickup truck reveal and the semi get on the road en masse.

So unless we get real close to FSD in the next 12 months, you should stock up on bottled water, twinkies and some good books as the moat gets wider and deeper before we rule the world. All this is my opinion...so take it for what its worth.

 

[Sean Wagner]

The Market might have but consumers have not. They will look for options as soon as that gas price starts to bite, which is every time they fill up. They see that thing go from $40 to $50 to $70 a tank, they start to get annoyed and look for alternatives.

I've mentioned earlier that the oil price has my attention.

Wish Tesla had an S and X going back and forth between SF and LA all day, every day - livestreamed. Including the Supercharging. Then advertise the [new, improved] range. Show maps of superchargers. Destination chargers. Show home charging.

The Tesla twitter feed has been pushing essential information out there. More of that to the eyeballs and wallets that matter right now.

CA this instant is showing 61% renewable electricity generation. 13% natural gas. 11% large hydro. 9.6% nuclear. Many people actually still think coal provides more than half the nation's power, when it's shrunk to a good quarter [off the top of my head] and continuing its inexorable decline.

 

[EVDRVN]

I think they need to make the tail-lights a bit bigger...

They can't they sourced them in bulk from Saturn

 

[M3Rider]

So, yeah, share price... down 3.5 bucks today, when Tesla confirmed the acquisition of a company with battery tech that could double their energy density in the next couple of years. This, I may add, against the competition that can't match Tesla's current technology and can neither source the volumes of cells that is needed to mount a credible challenge.

This is all without factoring Tesla's huge lead in autonomy - don't be drawn into the "they're in last place" bullshit, they're not, they are in front by a long way and it's going to increase very quickly. Also this doesn't take into account the hardware/software integration - aka the Mac versus the PC, if you like, where Tesla is out of sight, over the horizon.

So battery tech, autonomy and integration, for me, these are the critical success factors and no-one else is even in the frame. You can add OTA, lack of dealers, bottom-up design, GF1 and GF2, pending product launches, TE, roof shingles, etc.

Seriously, I look at the SP and I find it quite hilarious, but also somewhat comforting as I have a certain amount of common stock.

There's also this -
Huawei banned: US takes China trade war to dangerous new level - CNN

...Nationalist sentiment in the country is already hardening, Triolo warned.
...
China could make life harder for American firms with hurdles like customs delays and heightened scrutiny by regulators. Big brands like Boeing(BA), Nike (NKE), Tesla (TSLA), General Motors(GM) and many others are all hugely dependent on the Chinese market.

 

[Pras]

Anybody seen what the production Porsche Taycan looks like...?

Holy sugar, Porsche needs to fire whoever turned that concept into that monstrosity.

Or maybe keep the guy for our sake

 

[dgodfrey]

So, yeah, share price... down 3.5 bucks today, when Tesla confirmed the acquisition of a company with battery tech that could double their energy density in the next couple of years. This, I may add, against the competition that can't match Tesla's current technology and can neither source the volumes of cells that is needed to mount a credible challenge.

This is all without factoring Tesla's huge lead in autonomy - don't be drawn into the "they're in last place" bullshit, they're not, they are in front by a long way and it's going to increase very quickly. Also this doesn't take into account the hardware/software integration - aka the Mac versus the PC, if you like, where Tesla is out of sight, over the horizon.

So battery tech, autonomy and integration, for me, these are the critical success factors and no-one else is even in the frame. You can add OTA, lack of dealers, bottom-up design, GF1 and GF2, pending product launches, TE, roof shingles, etc.

Seriously, I look at the SP and I find it quite hilarious, but also somewhat comforting as I have a certain amount of common stock.

Like many here, I am way over leveraged in Tesla but:
1. It's not my retirement monies
2. I'm hopelessly gung ho on

• Musk is one of the good guys
• The timing is right for EV's, reusable rockets, renewable energy, autonomy etc
• The altruistic nature of the companies mission
• The potential is off the charts

3. I don't plan to retire for another 4 years

The last point matters in finding the silver lining in all this. My plan is to accumulate, accumulate, and accumulate while I'm still able to generate revenue. After I retire, then it can take off.
I hope I didn't just jinx it to stay <300 for the next 4 years.

 

[Sean Wagner]

April Top 10 Vehicles Sales of All Types Norway.

Had to verify at the source. They really do say EVs now account for about half of the cars sold in Norway, and that your chart above is real. Quite the thing to behold.

From Switzerland, the cumulative Top Ten Jan-April:

MARKE MODELL ANZAHL VERKÄUFE
1 Škoda Octavia 3057
2 VW Tiguan 2224
3 VW Golf 2185
4 Tesla Model 3 1866
5 Škoda Karoq 1737
6 Škoda Kodiaq 1674
7 Mercedes-Benz A-Klasse 1594
8 VW T6 1583
9 Mercedes-Benz GLC-Klasse 1522
10 Mercedes-Benz C-Klasse 1509

 

[Tslynk67]

I think the parallels with Amazon are quite interesting. Amazon was very willing to forego profits for many years to built up vertically and to build large moats around their business. Now they are reaping the rewards of that effort.

Tesla still has significant capital expenditures to come in order to continue on the grand plan, so we are not there yet. The other problem is that to fund this plan you need to sell and make more cars to get the $$$ you need to expand more. So it all comes back to plain old manufacturing execution. The demand IMO is there in spades, they just need to make all the cars\batteries people want to buy and not one more...and do it with heavy automation.

So we need one more gigafactory started in europe somewhere. Maybe after that one on Mars or Moon? (kidding...but wouldn't that be cool?) We need the Model Y and it needs to be built cost effectively and at scale. With the SEXY lineup business should be good as long as they then iterate on key items like battery tech (e.g. more range, cycles, etc), interior improvements to car (they still aren't as nice inside IMO as an S-Class), and FSD. Each of these are then demand levers for existing tech such that Tesla can be huge company with much higher revenues than now.

Of course there is semi and pickup and roadster, but part of me wishes they would focus on the SEXY lineup + solar + storage and get really really good making these things and then build out service centers and superchargers and then, and only then, expand the product portfolio.

Some level of ambition is good, too much ambition can be deadly. With all that said, I am excited to see the pickup truck reveal and the semi get on the road en masse.

So unless we get real close to FSD in the next 12 months, you should stock up on bottled water, twinkies and some good books as the moat gets wider and deeper before we rule the world. All this is my opinion...so take it for what its worth.

Can't disagree with any of that, but I do find the short-sightedness of Wall Street quite bizarre, to say the least. When the shite hits the fan and $TSLA pops 10x overnight, the analcysts will be wringing their hands and tearing their beards that they "couldn't foresee this". It's pitiable, but whereas I do agree that Tesla needs to "show the money", they also need to tether-in the guidance a bit.

But I don't really care, I have 15 years before official retirement and I'm confident I will retire very comfortably indeed.

 

[EVNow]

The problem is that they have proven to be VERY adept at explaining any sort of news as justification for predicting the end of Tresla...and worst of all, many people are buying it. It won't stop any time remotely soon.

Dan

Tesla is not going to convince hardcore shorts - just need to convince the fence sitters. Let's say people who were long before Q4 bad news and the SP was at 350.

 

[dqd88]

Can't disagree with any of that, but I do find the short-sightedness of Wall Street quite bizarre, to say the least. When the shite hits the fan and $TSLA pops 10x overnight, the analcysts will be wringing their hands and tearing their beards that they "couldn't foresee this". It's pitiable, but whereas I do agree that Tesla needs to "show the money", they also need to tether-in the guidance a bit.

But I don't really care, I have 15 years before official retirement and I'm confident I will retire very comfortably indeed.

I think we are still under the context of the Q1 miss. I think 2019 SP will be lumpy and very hard to pin down. Tesla needs another model in production to reignite excitement. Most of that will be in 2020 it seems. (roadster/semi/Y).
Maxwell deal/autonomy potential/etc is just all too abstract for the street at the moment.