Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Maitri982]

Can't disagree with any of that, but I do find the short-sightedness of Wall Street quite bizarre, to say the least. When the shite hits the fan and $TSLA pops 10x overnight, the analcysts will be wringing their hands and tearing their beards that they "couldn't foresee this". It's pitiable, but whereas I do agree that Tesla needs to "show the money", they also need to tether-in the guidance a bit.

But I don't really care, I have 15 years before official retirement and I'm confident I will retire very comfortably indeed.

I forgot to mention that one big difference with Tesla and Amazon is there is a huge and horrible group of vested interests who seem to hate anything Musk does and are actively trying to kill Tesla with a large and concerted effort. I dont recall that being the case with Amazon.

And yea, I am here because I think there could be some huge news coming that will blow the stock upwards...either FSD or Maxwell tech related. I would prefer both.

 

[Pras]

Like many here, I am way over leveraged in Tesla but:
1. It's not my retirement monies
2. I'm hopelessly gung ho on

• Musk is one of the good guys
• The timing is right for EV's, reusable rockets, renewable energy, autonomy etc
• The altruistic nature of the companies mission
• The potential is off the charts

3. I don't plan to retire for another 4 years

The last point matters in finding the silver lining in all this. My plan is to accumulate, accumulate, and accumulate while I'm still able to generate revenue. After I retire, then it can take off.
I hope I didn't just jinx it to stay <300 for the next 4 years.

I say $500 in next two years!! 300 is a low bar.

 

[anthonyj]

The front and side view is OK.. actually, I really like it from the front.. from the rear, it just reminds me of a Saturn SC2

View attachment 408531

View attachment 408532

Those aren’t the lights. Those are decals/stickers. The lights are thin. Porsche does this to hide the actual design of the car.

 

[Krugerrand]

1. Could Tesla really plan for it if they didn't know for sure whether the acquisition would go through?
2. How much would MXWL want to share their tech not knowing whether their partnership works out? What if they go their separate ways and Tesla still uses their tech or some parts of it? Maybe they had some legal agreement to work all of this out.
3. The China speculation is highly questionable; would they be selling SR+ with 300+mi range and U.S. consumers at the same time only having an option of buying 240mi range for the same car? Plus LR with the specs of Chinese SR? Doesn't make sense.

Overall timeline for embedding the tech seems to be Elon-time-optimistic.
But if that's true and M3 has 400mi range in 2020 that's death to ICE right there.

Elon always gets what he wants in the end. He wanted to wholly own his GF in China. People here argued up one side and down the other how that would NEVER happen, people fully familiar with how China Gov works. All wrong. Elon got it.

Elon got an accelerated build of GF1 as well. But even more noteworthy was the fairness of the deal. Both sides won on that deal with Tesla investing in that state all the way to the education system.

Now I’m reading about impatience for Europe GF announcement and lots of people here thinking Tesla won’t get a good deal. That regulations and laws and unions etc... will slow Tesla down or make them pay through the nose. I contend the delay in GF4 announcement is Elon simply waiting for someone to finally give in and give him what he wants, just like China did. Elon will male sure the deal is positive for both sides. We just have to wait for someone on the other side to grow a brain and realize the final outcome of working with Elon and Tesla.

So yeah, once Elon decided he wanted this tech it was a matter of time until he got it. That is my belief having watched him do deals for several years now.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Fred Alert: New Employee email from Elon. (But Electrek did not publish the full text so hard to know the full message)

More extremely stupid and misleading negative hyperbole from Elon to justify further (and sensible) continued cost cutting. His communication skills can be so incredibly bad at times - I know this is a part of who he is and he can't help it but its so counterproductive to all of his huge talents. There is no need for this hyperbole to justify and excuse cost cuts. He should just tell the truth that he is going to continue to cut costs to increase profit. No need for him to create an excuse with literal TSLAQ data cherry picking and misleading presentation.

 

[Leo9]

Tesla CEO Elon Musk launches new ‘hardcore’ cost-cutting effort, will review all expenses

Musk made the announcement in an email sent to all Tesla employees and obtained by Electrek.

In the email, the CEO argued that it is “extremely important” to “examine every expenditure at Tesla, no matter how small.”

He referenced Tesla’s last quarter during which the automaker lost $700 million.

Even Tesla still had a $2.2 billion cash position at the end of last quarter, Musk said that it wouldn’t last that long with their burn rate:

“This is a lot of money, but actually only gives us about 10 months at the Q1 burn rate to achieve breakeven!”

In order to stop the bleeding, the CEO is implementing a new cost-cutting initiative that will see all the teams examine every payment, including “parts, salary, travel expenses, and rent.”

The CEO added that Zach Kirkhorn, Tesla’s new CFO, will review and sign every page of outgoing payment while Musk himself will review and sign every tenth page.

Musk described the effort as “hardcore”:

“This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable.”

He said that employees have a few weeks to take ownership of expenses and find ways to make improvements.


Déjà vu

 

[Cherry Wine]

RIP stock price tomorrow. Should have sold more call spreads.

Never fails.

 

[JusRelax]

Tesla CEO Elon Musk launches new ‘hardcore’ cost-cutting effort, will review all expenses

Musk made the announcement in an email sent to all Tesla employees and obtained by Electrek.

In the email, the CEO argued that it is “extremely important” to “examine every expenditure at Tesla, no matter how small.”

He referenced Tesla’s last quarter during which the automaker lost $700 million.

Even Tesla still had a $2.2 billion cash position at the end of last quarter, Musk said that it wouldn’t last that long with their burn rate:

“This is a lot of money, but actually only gives us about 10 months at the Q1 burn rate to achieve breakeven!”

In order to stop the bleeding, the CEO is implementing a new cost-cutting initiative that will see all the teams examine every payment, including “parts, salary, travel expenses, and rent.”

The CEO added that Zach Kirkhorn, Tesla’s new CFO, will review and sign every page of outgoing payment while Musk himself will review and sign every tenth page.

Musk described the effort as “hardcore”:

“This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable.”

He said that employees have a few weeks to take ownership of expenses and find ways to make improvements.


Déjà vu

What's the over/under on Elon reading this tmc thread, and having multiple emails with a few words different implemented to catch any leakers through this email?

 

[Prunesquallor]

And a big THANK YOU to FCA for paying for Maxwell! How generous of them...

Good observation. I would conclude that the CO2 pooling continues to have unintended consequences. Not only is it subsidizing a non-EU EV manufacturer, but it’s potentially increasing Tesla’s dominance.

FCA’s hole just keeps getting deeper.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Maxwell Technologies acquisition has the following 5 benefits for Tesla:

1. 16x production density increase
2. 10-20% cost reduction
3. Energy density increase: 300 wh/kg - 500 wh/kg
4. 2x increase in battery pack life
5. Battery cell production vertical integration

Here's the video explaining the details:
"5 reasons why Tesla bought Maxwell"
Sean Mitchell • 3.8K views 11:26'

 

[JRP3]

Former NVDA employee and current ARK Invest analyst discusses Tesla's chip building efforts:
"This is a chip NVDA will be able to build in maybe a year or two"
ARK Invest on Twitter

 

[Artful Dodger]

RIP stock price tomorrow. Should have sold more call spreads.

Never fails.

Lol, you are getting a little gunshy, wot? Any other big automaker announces belt tightening and their SP goes UP!

Just curious, is your investment horizon less than 1 year?

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yeah, the Maxwell Technologies acquistion (technically a merger) was a stock swap deal (less the ~21% of shares not tendered, which will be paid in cash at the tender price).

So approx. $46M in cash to acquire Maxwell. That's not even a MONTH of FCA cash, which continues for 3 years...

And Tesla gets to DOUBLE their battery specs with 'Maxcells' during the course of those 3 years:

• cost
• range
• lifetime

Cheers!

And I don’t believe for a minute this is the end of the FCA “gift that keeps on giving”. Their explanation of how they were going to get whole in the out-years was really suspect in my mind. It was going to take a LOT of EVs in ‘22 and beyond.

And these aren’t compliance cars. They actually have to SELL them for them to count - as @Artful Dodger implied, potentially competing with Maxwell-powered Teslas.

 

[azaz]

Tesla CEO Elon Musk launches new ‘hardcore’ cost-cutting effort, will review all expenses

Musk made the announcement in an email sent to all Tesla employees and obtained by Electrek.

In the email, the CEO argued that it is “extremely important” to “examine every expenditure at Tesla, no matter how small.”

He referenced Tesla’s last quarter during which the automaker lost $700 million.

Even Tesla still had a $2.2 billion cash position at the end of last quarter, Musk said that it wouldn’t last that long with their burn rate:

“This is a lot of money, but actually only gives us about 10 months at the Q1 burn rate to achieve breakeven!”

In order to stop the bleeding, the CEO is implementing a new cost-cutting initiative that will see all the teams examine every payment, including “parts, salary, travel expenses, and rent.”

The CEO added that Zach Kirkhorn, Tesla’s new CFO, will review and sign every page of outgoing payment while Musk himself will review and sign every tenth page.

Musk described the effort as “hardcore”:

“This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable.”

He said that employees have a few weeks to take ownership of expenses and find ways to make improvements.


Déjà vu

things are going great!

 

[Prunesquallor]

I think the parallels with Amazon are quite interesting. Amazon was very willing to forego profits for many years to built up vertically and to build large moats around their business. Now they are reaping the rewards of that effort.

Tesla still has significant capital expenditures to come in order to continue on the grand plan, so we are not there yet. The other problem is that to fund this plan you need to sell and make more cars to get the $$$ you need to expand more. So it all comes back to plain old manufacturing execution. The demand IMO is there in spades, they just need to make all the cars\batteries people want to buy and not one more...and do it with heavy automation.

So we need one more gigafactory started in europe somewhere. Maybe after that one on Mars or Moon? (kidding...but wouldn't that be cool?) We need the Model Y and it needs to be built cost effectively and at scale. With the SEXY lineup business should be good as long as they then iterate on key items like battery tech (e.g. more range, cycles, etc), interior improvements to car (they still aren't as nice inside IMO as an S-Class), and FSD. Each of these are then demand levers for existing tech such that Tesla can be huge company with much higher revenues than now.

Of course there is semi and pickup and roadster, but part of me wishes they would focus on the SEXY lineup + solar + storage and get really really good making these things and then build out service centers and superchargers and then, and only then, expand the product portfolio.

Some level of ambition is good, too much ambition can be deadly. With all that said, I am excited to see the pickup truck reveal and the semi get on the road en masse.

So unless we get real close to FSD in the next 12 months, you should stock up on bottled water, twinkies and some good books as the moat gets wider and deeper before we rule the world. All this is my opinion...so take it for what its worth.

It would be interesting to know which is projected to be the biggest money-maker, Semi or Pickup. I know Elon loves his pickup, but that Semi just pushes my profit buttons.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I've mentioned earlier that the oil price has my attention.

Wish Tesla had an S and X going back and forth between SF and LA all day, every day - livestreamed. Including the Supercharging. Then advertise the [new, improved] range. Show maps of superchargers. Destination chargers. Show home charging.

The Tesla twitter feed has been pushing essential information out there. More of that to the eyeballs and wallets that matter right now.

CA this instant is showing 61% renewable electricity generation. 13% natural gas. 11% large hydro. 9.6% nuclear. Many people actually still think coal provides more than half the nation's power, when it's shrunk to a good quarter [off the top of my head] and continuing its inexorable decline.

Electrek article: “Cloud Peak Energy” (sheesh), fourth largest US coal produced filed Chapter 11.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Tesla CEO Elon Musk launches new ‘hardcore’ cost-cutting effort, will review all expenses

Musk made the announcement in an email sent to all Tesla employees and obtained by Electrek.

In the email, the CEO argued that it is “extremely important” to “examine every expenditure at Tesla, no matter how small.”

He referenced Tesla’s last quarter during which the automaker lost $700 million.

Even Tesla still had a $2.2 billion cash position at the end of last quarter, Musk said that it wouldn’t last that long with their burn rate:

“This is a lot of money, but actually only gives us about 10 months at the Q1 burn rate to achieve breakeven!”

In order to stop the bleeding, the CEO is implementing a new cost-cutting initiative that will see all the teams examine every payment, including “parts, salary, travel expenses, and rent.”

The CEO added that Zach Kirkhorn, Tesla’s new CFO, will review and sign every page of outgoing payment while Musk himself will review and sign every tenth page.

Musk described the effort as “hardcore”:

“This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable.”

He said that employees have a few weeks to take ownership of expenses and find ways to make improvements.


Déjà vu

So they are giving themselves 10 months to have Shanghai ramped, Model Y launched, Semi launched, etc.
I don't know that Elon realizes he just put a deadline on Tesla's return to profitability.
I also don't see any reason to hold any TSLA for the next 10 months....

 

[goinfraftw]

So they are giving themselves 10 months to have Shanghai ramped, Model Y launched, Semi launched, etc.
I don't know that Elon realizes he just put a deadline on Tesla's return to profitability.
I also don't see any reason to hold any TSLA for the next 10 months....

...because maybe you're already a 7 year investor and plan to stay in, maybe, for another 5-10 years and don't care about what's currently going on at all? In fact, maybe, you might find it fascinating?

 

[EVNow]

So they are giving themselves 10 months to have Shanghai ramped, Model Y launched, Semi launched, etc.
I don't know that Elon realizes he just put a deadline on Tesla's return to profitability.
I also don't see any reason to hold any TSLA for the next 10 months....

Huh … that doesn't make much sense. Because the burn rate isn't going to continue (and they got more money too).

 

[UnknownSoldier]

...because you're already a 7 year investor and plan to stay in for another 5-10 years and don't care about what's currently going on at all? In fact, maybe you might find it fascinating?

Sorry, I didn't come to Tesla already rich and using their shares as a plaything like most of the really long longs here. I needed to fund my retirement and Tesla has failed to do anything to help me there. I'll wait until there's more to the story before I think about investing again.