Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mars ☰mperor]

Huh, and they’re all XXXD’s instead of SR/LR... are these all 2018 makes, or does Norway not use the new names?

I have a question.

Do Model S&X still have number badge on the rear?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

1. Could Tesla really plan for it if they didn't know for sure whether the acquisition would go through?
2. How much would MXWL want to share their tech not knowing whether their partnership works out? What if they go their separate ways and Tesla still uses their tech or some parts of it? Maybe they had some legal agreement to work all of this out.
3. The China speculation is highly questionable; would they be selling SR+ with 300mi range and U.S. consumers at the same time only having an option of buying 240mi range for the same car? Plus LR with the specs of Chinese SR? Doesn't make sense.

Overall timeline for embedding the tech seems to be Elon-time-optimistic.
But if that's true and M3 has 400mi range in 2020 that's death to ICE right there.

While #3 is def speculation from my at this time. I do not think they would be charging people different prices for different ranges based on whether the car was made at Giga 3 or Freemont/Giga 1. They could keep the range the same as the US versions, but prove out that the Maxwell tech siginificantly reduces costs of the cells for the same range.

As for #1 and #2, Tesla was originally going to be a customer of Maxwell and license their tech. At some point, Tesla decided the battery breakthrough was legit and moved to buy it. They used their leverage as the majority of Maxwell's customer base to kinda force them to sell by saying they would drop Maxwell tech and Maxwell as a future supplier if they refused the deal. The details on the negotiations shows they were talking for quite a while.

 

[Maitri982]

I think when it comes to Maxwell, it will be very interesting to watch Q4 2019/Q1 2020. When you actually start putting the pieces together, I actually think Tesla has been realigning all of their products for a significant battery breakthrough. Follow along:

All very plausible...and really they can't say any of that directly as it will affect current sales if people decide to wait for upcoming battery changes.

I think they are coming too but I will buy another Tesla this summer no matter what.

 

[Boomer19]

I don't think that's accurate: Maxwell management sought a buyout and approved Tesla's offer, and they tendered their shares.

I'm sure they were hoping for a bidding war - and I think Tesla made a really good deal if Maxwell patented key aspects of their breakthrough no-solvents manufacturing technologies.

But this wasn't a hostile takeover.

yes, thanks for clarification. i’m so used to seeing a takeover happen this way...some are hostile, some are not.
the key is that this structure (as you pointed out) opens up the door to a competitive offer, which mxwl probably hoped for, and didn’t really get.

point is, not every tender takeover is hostile.
...like not all big grey things are elephants

 

[Big Blue 1011]

They started the discount process for this quarter.

I assumed so, but in the past there were quite a few posts when that happened. I've seen a few, but not as many as I would expect if there is deep discounting going on.

 

[schonelucht]

I assumed so, but in the past there were quite a few posts when that happened. I've seen a few, but not as many as I would expect if there is deep discounting going on.

You need to check out Norwegian forums. Inventory priser (use google translate)

 

[Big Blue 1011]

You need to check out Norwegian forums. Inventory priser (use google translate)

Wow. Great resource for information. Thank you.

 

[capster]

A couple years ago I read an article that pointed out the #1 stock bought by each generation when they were young.

Greatest Gen was GE
Boomers was apple
Millennials - Tesla

Don't know if this sort of thing contributes, but I bought my son 25 shares of TSLA some years ago on the condition that he not sell it for a couple of decades at least. I don't think I'm the only parent to do something similar.

Like many, he's become globally networked already early in college (probably more than most I'd guess).

During his college orientation, the school's folks told us there is data that kids listen to their parents (yes!) and their friends before the media and advertising.

So one can hope good sense prevails and that his generation has some immunity to the FUD.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

They started the discount process for this quarter.

This has nothing to do with the quarter, only with the introduction of the improved Model S and X. Who would pay full price now that you can have a car with more range, a higher charging rate and better suspension? You wouldn’t.

 

[M3Rider]

While #3 is def speculation from my at this time. I do not think they would be charging people different prices for different ranges based on whether the car was made at Giga 3 or Freemont/Giga 1. They could keep the range the same as the US versions, but prove out that the Maxwell tech siginificantly reduces costs of the cells for the same range.

I guess you're right, they could software limit it in one factory to match the other and then some time later offer owners to upgrade and put the locked out range to use.

I think it makes more sense though to setup new cell production in U.S. first, given that the # of upcoming products and cell demand here is much higher. So they need to ramp this up asap, esp. considering that demand will be through the roof when cars reach 400+ mile range and it will become obvious to everyone what is the future of ICE.

They need to be very careful though about how much info/estimates they share with the public or they can Osborne their sales for the next 2 years. I'm hoping they can say smth like "It is a very promising tech and we'll be looking at how to best incorporate it into our batteries in the near future. We'll let you know when we have more to share. Bye!"

 

[Todd Burch]

This has nothing to do with the quarter, only with the introduction of the improved Model S and X. Who would pay full price now that you can have a car with more range, a higher charging rate and better suspension? You wouldn’t.

Exactly. Discounts on inventory pre-Raven cars.

 

[schonelucht]

This has nothing to do with the quarter, only with the introduction of the improved Model S and X. Who would pay full price now that you can have a car with more range, a higher charging rate and better suspension? You wouldn’t.

Sure, the discounts are heavier this time around and the refresh is certainly a good reason. But the quarterly discount cycle is a thing.

 

[bdy0627]

You need to check out Norwegian forums. Inventory priser (use google translate)

I browsed the link a little. Not surprisingly, it looks like customers have been looking for/expecting a discount since new models are coming soon. This is google translated:
"Have been in the market for a while after a Model S, but have it hardly been busy and therefore have the opportunity to wait for the planets to be in line and to make a good purchase that does not get a heavy loss of value because there will be major changes some months later."

 

[Big Blue 1011]

This has nothing to do with the quarter, only with the introduction of the improved Model S and X. Who would pay full price now that you can have a car with more range, a higher charging rate and better suspension? You wouldn’t.

I'm just a little surprised that there are that many 75Ds still around, since Tesla stopped taking orders on them 4 months ago.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Sure, the discounts are heavier this time around and the refresh is certainly a good reason. But the quarterly discount cycle is a thing.

Do you have a comparison to support your argument that discounts in other quarters were less steep? Some anecdotal counter-evidence: I got a €15,000 discount on my S 90D in 2016 and a €21,000 discount on my S P100D in 2018.

And even if they are steeper: it would totally make sense in light of the model changes

 

[DaveT]

Trade war heightens. Behind the scenes...

How Xi Jinping's colleagues rejected an 'unequal' trade deal

 

[Nocturnal]

Don't know if this sort of thing contributes, but I bought my son 25 shares of TSLA some years ago on the condition that he not sell it for a couple of decades at least. I don't think I'm the only parent to do something similar.

Like many, he's become globally networked already early in college (probably more than most I'd guess).

During his college orientation, the school's folks told us there is data that kids listen to their parents (yes!) and their friends before the media and advertising.

So one can hope good sense prevails and that his generation has some immunity to the FUD.

I'm positive they do. Obviously that is no guarantee that Tesla makes it, but the parallels are there. If the consumer base loves a company enough to invest in it, then it suggest they will do well by selling them products.

 

[Todd Burch]

Sure, the discounts are heavier this time around and the refresh is certainly a good reason. But the quarterly discount cycle is a thing.

I would bet that there will be less end-of-quarter discounting starting this quarter. In the past Tesla would discount to try to reduce inventory at EOQ. Since they're getting rid of the wave, they have less incentive to eliminate inventory at the end of a quarter. The quarterly discounting was one of the financial drawbacks of the wave approach they used to use.

This end-of-quarter discounting would also exacerbate Tesla's delivery problem, because customers caught on to it and would start delaying their orders to the end of the quarter. This of course made their end-of-quarter delivery push even harder.

Assuming Q2 is the start of the elimination of the wave, these discounts will hopefully go away. In other words, Tesla will hopefully be shifting to a model where quarterly boundaries are invisible to the behavior of the company. A great thing longer term.

In short, the wave approach was stupid stupid stupid all around, and Elon should have eliminated it long ago. Good riddens.

 

[schonelucht]

Do you have a comparison to support your argument that discounts in other quarters were less steep? Some anecdotal counter-evidence: I got a €15,000 discount on my S 90D in 2016 and a €21,000 discount on my S P100D in 2018.

I am confused. I was under the impression that I was arguing that discounts are a regular affair and you were claiming that they were just exceptional this time around?

 

[dmvevguy]

I just drove from East Coast to West Coast and back. Best damn drive experience ever. Went to Grand Canyon, all national parks of Utah / Arizona and was happy to see supercharger stations all near them!

Checked out the factory at Fremont and saw they upgraded superchargers to V3 there. I have an older Model S 75d.

What gives on this damn stock price?! Still can't believe Uber is valued so much higher as of last week...