Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

I have two trip odometers. If I leave one never reset since the car was new, then it reads consumption since the car was new. I had the same on my Model S which was 306 watts/mile with 90,000 miles on the car. I actually drive quite briskly around town and love to show off the acceleration at green lights. But on the fwy I stay around speed limit of 65 to 70.

Excuse me, but a Tesla has an actual computer inside (more than one actually).

So I hope there are plans to let the owner see the consumption and other driving + charging characteristics in a more systematic manner.

This would be good for the resale value, since there would less uncertainty of how the car was driven and charged.

 

[avoigt]

So here's a problem I see for VW: higher class models tend to generate a disproportionate fraction of cash and profits. By positioning the I.D. right above the compact segment VW risks cannibalizing all their mid and high end models. They could end up generating losses pretty quickly, not because their EVs are necessarily unprofitable, but because their ICE premium market might collapse faster. If we look at BMW and Mercedes sales in the U.S. it doesn't take much to lose market share.

This is going to be a grand experiment: VW is the first top tier ICE OEM who cannibalizes their own ICE offerings with honest, properly designed, good looking EVs. (Which the I.D. tries to be.)

If VW manages to convert to EVs successfully, then this could be a model for the rest.

I'm very curious how this is going to play out.

I guess VW also does not know yet how this is going to play out.

They announced a Tesla-like reservation model not for $1k but much less a few days ago. It sounds like they try to identify serious interest in the market to be able to get a sense where the demand will be. My read is that VWs Management is trying to find the right strategy and as of now they have more questions than answers. Experience with EV is just missing and they still watch Tesla with a mix of appreciation and fear.... the 'lets make fun of them part' is gone!

For instance, if you look at their test plant to produce batteries its the attempt to figure out if its better to go with Teslas approach to do batterie cells and packs on their own or which is right now the strategy to buy the cells from suppliers which is where they feel comfortable as its their established business model.

With VW being 10 years behind not only with batteries but also with EVs in Software, autonomous driving systems as well as charging systems to name a few there are too many variables right now to really know where to get started. Its a bid of a blind folded pilot trying to start and land a plane at an airport you have not been before and an unclear weather situation.

As you indicated, pace of disruption will be a key element. If VW brings a good EV on the market that plays a league below Tesla they still will sell it but eat into their ICE segment. If the demand goes faster than planned and ICE demand dropped accordingly they have to invest more to get EV production build and have lower revenue and likely negative profit in that segment. For a tanker like VW that can be very painful if the market demand does not play according to their investment plan.

I believe we will have Tesla and then anybody else and one of those will be VW. While all large OEMs will compete with their EVs against each other there will be Tesla selling every car they can possibly produce.

 

[Buckminster]

From an efficency or cost point of view, anything that could be done to a car would be better off happening in a factory before shipment. Maybe SW updates, but you would not want to risk an issue and making the car undrivable.

This may an urban legend: There was a ship that loaded lumber at one port and off loaded furniture at another. I think that was an attempt to get around tariffs/ dutys.

Genius; Elon could make a ship into an alien dreadnought. Build for individual markets in port and then move on - avoiding import duties. Dreadnought is supposed to be a ship after all...

 

[Tslynk67]

I have 12,000 miles on my Model 3 RWD, 18" Aero's. Total lifetime consumption is 220 wh/mile.

That's in SoCal, ray getting the same in Norway, or Canada...

 

[aubreymcfato]

Here in California gas is $3.50 per gallon. Supercharging is .26/ kwh. My Model 3 takes me 4.45 miles per Kw. .26 divided by 4.45 = $.058 per mile. Gas at $3.50 divided by 25mpg = $.14. So gas is 3 times as expensive. We, like many people here charge from solar.

Gas also brings with it all sorts of other costs. Lung cancer, brain damage to children, and even the premature death of my wife 7 years ago who grew up near an oil refinery.

This woman, and several of the young people who lived in her neighborhood near a refinery, all died prematurely of a similar type of AML leukemia. It was because of Anne's illness that I went EV back in 2012. I was not going to have any part of doing to other children, what was done to Anne.
The first picture is Anne in 2010. The second picture is Anne in 2011: View attachment 370255 View attachment 370256

Just a wake up call just how expensive gas can be.

dear gene, thanks for you moving post.
Sorry for intruding, but let me express my condolences, and, if I my, a small suggestion: why don't you write a post for CleanTechnica? I think that your story shows the biggest elephant in the room when talking cars, the most hidden, most expensive cost of ICE. Traditional cars *must* be associated with health issues and lives taken.
I'm sure Zach could follow up your post with a more analytical/statistical posts about health costs associated with the current car industry.
It's just a suggestion: feel free, of course, to ditch it.

Thanks again.

PS: I couldn't paste this in your profile page, too many characters, hope you don't mind a public post.

 

[lklundin]

Here in California gas is $3.50 per gallon. Supercharging is .26/ kwh. My Model 3 takes me 4.45 miles per Kw. .26 divided by 4.45 = $.058 per mile. Gas at $3.50 divided by 25mpg = $.14. So gas is 3 times as expensive. We, like many people here charge from solar.

Gas also brings with it all sorts of other costs. Lung cancer, brain damage to children, and even the premature death of my wife 7 years ago who grew up near an oil refinery.

This woman, and several of the young people who lived in her neighborhood near a refinery, all died prematurely of a similar type of AML leukemia. It was because of Anne's illness that I went EV back in 2012. I was not going to have any part of doing to other children, what was done to Anne.
The first picture is Anne in 2010. The second picture is Anne in 2011: View attachment 370255 View attachment 370256

Just a wake up call just how expensive gas can be.

I am so sorry for your loss.

Thank you for sharing.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm curious: how do you get that figure? In the Tesla I'm only seeing ability to go back last 30 miles -- I'd love to be able to track consumption over longer periods of time.

I assume the M3 has the same Trip features as the S&X? You setup a "Lifetime" trip and just leave leave.

 

[Tslynk67]

And I agree with you.... But Panasonic is certainly willing to sell their battery technology - along with things they learn along the way - to anyone else...

I was responding to the poster that said that ~Tesla~ will be selling batteries, and I'm just saying it's a "stretch" to think that...

They cannot sell Tesla IP to anyone else.

 

[schonelucht]

I'm sure @KarenRei knows a lot about ships, she could tell us if this is feasible or just a naive dream.

Its a naive dream. Check YouTube for video’s of roro ship loading. Cars are packed densely and secured. It’s impossible to do any work on them.

 

[Fact Checking]

They announced a Tesla-like reservation model not for $1k but much less a few days ago. It sounds like they try to identify serious interest in the market to be able to get a sense where the demand will be. My read is that VWs Management is trying to find the right strategy and as of now they have more questions than answers. Experience with EV is just missing and they still watch Tesla with a mix of appreciation and fear.... the 'lets make fun of them part' is gone!

Also note that VW CEO Herbert Diess comes from the automotive R&D side:

Herbert Diess – Wikipedia​

He worked at Bosch, BMW and he's an early supporter of green tech, EVs and vertical integration, and he was pretty much the only VW executive untainted by Dieselgate. I believe he wants to see all things internal combustion die as fast as possible.

So Diess is not our usual accountant-lawyer-MBA automotive CEO who wants to outsource and squeeze suppliers, and I consider the VW I.D. a serious effort worth watching/following.

I also think that the leaks in August 2018, about VW being interested in buying a stake in a going-private Tesla were founded in fact, even though the CFO of VW AG eventually denied it. (But there are ways to make such offers without the CFO "officially" knowing about it.)

 

[Krugerrand]

Of course, just as he does on SA and all other outlets where he spews his nonsense. He knows it's so indefensible that he long ago stopped responding to comments on his articles on SA because they were so easily and consistently torn apart. I'm not sure what sort of delusion allows him to think he'll somehow fare better on this forum where almost everyone is much better informed.

I’d assume he knows he won’t fare better. His motive is to be a dick and stir the pot. He’s ugly inside.

 

[AudubonB]

Re working *in* the ship: how much time would Tesla save if they had a crew onboard? Could be worth it?

My brother did a trip from Barcelona to New York in a cargo ship for "fun", had plenty of time for his writing and drawing, but of course is not that an easy life, and you can't always work (it depends by the sea).
I'm don't know, for example, if cars are fixed to the deck for safety -storms in the ocean are something to be afraid of.
Tesla could upgrade crew living conditions with a better cook, better food, and customizing the rooms.

I'm sure @KarenRei knows a lot about ships, she could tell us if this is feasible or just a naive dream.

They most certainly are fastened. Go upthread just a couple of days a few gazillion posts and you can see an example in the 5-6 minute video of a Ro-Ro at work. When I posted above at how I have ben contemplating Tesla making productive use of the time at sea, that includes an innovative way to approach tie-downs.
BUT.....too much more of this Shipping Stuff and I'll have to carve out all these posts into a new thread. Ugh. Really hate doing that stuff.

 

[Fact Checking]

I’d assume he knows he won’t fare better. His motive is to be a dick and stir the pot. He’s ugly inside.

He is also possibly a criminal, a fraudster, earning money (or satisfaction) through crime:

Stock Basher

"A Stock Basher is a person engaging in an illegal type of market manipulation to make the price of an asset fall. Stock bashers rely on misinformation campaigns to decrease confidence in a stock, leading to an undervaluation of that stock."​

This is also why they try to stay anonymous and use burner accounts - even in the U.S. the First Amendment does not provide much protection.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Toyota and Panasonic are planning to set up a new battery JV in 2020, to be 51% owned by Toyota. Panasonic will transfer 5 battery production facilities from Japan & China into the JV. I presume this will all be prismatic batteries and will be focussed on hybrids in-line with Toyota's strategy. GF1 will not be transferred to the JV obviously, but it's not clear if the 18650 Suminoe Japan factory will be transferred - this could be possible if Panasonic is moving S/X battery production to GF1.

It looks like Panasonic is fully committing to Toyota and Tesla partnerships and I can't see capacity for them to produce batteries for any other company.

I think this could actually be positive for Tesla. This reduces Panasonic's capital requirements in the rest of its battery business and may free up capital to further expand GF1 and possibly build a new Tesla factory in China. On the other hand, this will also give Toyota closer access to Panasonic's battery supply chain, particularly Sumitomo (cathodes) and lithium suppliers, which are also critical to Tesla.

Toyota and Panasonic to build electric car batteries together

 

[jbcarioca]

Toyota and Panasonic are planning to set up a new battery JV in 2020, to be 51% owned by Toyota. Panasonic will transfer 5 battery production facilities from Japan & China into the JV. I presume this will all be prismatic batteries and will be focussed on hybrids in-line with Toyota's strategy. GF1 will not be transferred to the JV obviously, but it's not clear if the 18650 Suminoe Japan factory will be transferred - this could be possible if Panasonic is moving S/X battery production to GF1.

It looks like Panasonic is fully committing to Toyota and Tesla partnerships and I can't see capacity for them to produce batteries for any other company.

I think this could actually be positive for Tesla. This reduces Panasonic's capital requirements in the rest of its battery business and may free up capital to further expand GF1 and possibly build a new Tesla factory in China. On the other hand, this will also give Toyota closer access to Panasonic's battery supply chain, particularly Sumitomo (cathodes) and lithium suppliers, which are also critical to Tesla.

Toyota and Panasonic to build electric car batteries together

Remember the Panasonic JV factory in Dalian, producing batteries for domestic China uses. It’s not quite “only Tesla and Toyota”.

 

[KarenRei]

So 30k EUR is $34.5k.

EU prices include VAT.

Note that "300-400 km" is 185-248 miles, centered around 350 km / 220 miles, which is the Model 3 Standard Range.

EU ranges are WLTP (or sometimes still, embarassingly, NEDC!), which is more optimistic than EPA combined.

Also, remember that this is VW we're talking about here. The heart of Dieselgate. A company that always talks big about the future without delivering. Expect tricks, hype, and bait & switch. That doesn't by any means mean "discount them" - they're definitely making a big EV push. But don't take everything they say at face value.

Also, it's quite possible that as economies of scale improve, Tesla might be able to reduce the entry price to below $35k: $33k, $32k, putting the squeeze on VW.

Musk stated last August that they could make a $25k Tesla in 3 years. Of course, one must account for a Musk Time Dilation Factor

Point of note, however: check out the amount VW plans to spend on battery purchases over the next 5 years, and consider that they're likely to be backloaded (e.g. fewer in the short term, more in the long term). And consider that their battery purchases also go to hybrids and PHEVs. It works out to them making something like 1,6M EVs/year 3 to 3 1/2 years from now, by my calculations. Now compare to Tesla. Tesla estimates global Model 3 sales at 500k/yr (w/o ads) / 700k/yr (w/ads) and Model Y sales at 700k/1000k per year. Then add in S, X, Semi, Pickup, Roadster.... let alone if Tesla does actually introduce a lower-end-than-Model-3 car in a few years....

VW acts like they're being extremely ambitious with their production targets, but they're really not. Ambitious compared to "mainstream" automakers, sure, but not compared to Tesla.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Remember the Panasonic JV factory in Dalian, producing batteries for domestic China uses. It’s not quite “only Tesla and Toyota”.

It looks like Dalian is being sold into the Toyota JV. So I presume it's customers are already Toyota partners in China.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Toyota and Panasonic are planning to set up a new battery JV in 2020, to be 51% owned by Toyota. Panasonic will transfer 5 battery production facilities from Japan & China into the JV. I presume this will all be prismatic batteries and will be focussed on hybrids in-line with Toyota's strategy. GF1 will not be transferred to the JV obviously, but it's not clear if the 18650 Suminoe Japan factory will be transferred - this could be possible if Panasonic is moving S/X battery production to GF1.

It looks like Panasonic is fully committing to Toyota and Tesla partnerships and I can't see capacity for them to produce batteries for any other company.

I think this could actually be positive for Tesla. This reduces Panasonic's capital requirements in the rest of its battery business and may free up capital to further expand GF1 and possibly build a new Tesla factory in China. On the other hand, this will also give Toyota closer access to Panasonic's battery supply chain, particularly Sumitomo (cathodes) and lithium suppliers, which are also critical to Tesla.

Toyota and Panasonic to build electric car batteries together

I just saw the same article and agree that everything suggests that S/X are going to move to 2170 cells. The stopped production of the 75kWh MS/X, the transfer of factories to a JV with Toyota (the capacity to make 100k vehicles should be enough for 200k small Toyotas - a nice test case) and the fact that the S/X are supposed to use the latest tech.

The cap on S/X sales at 100k per year would also end. I wonder what the next bottleneck is and if they could go to 150k vehicles per year now at healthy margins.

 

[CorneliusXX]

EU prices include VAT.



EU ranges are WLTP (or sometimes still, embarassingly, NEDC!), which is more optimistic than EPA combined.



Musk stated last fall that they plan to make a $25k Tesla in 2-3 years. Of course, account for a Musk Time Dilation Factor

This was in the MKBHD video. He didn't say that they plan one in 2-3 years, he said they could build one in 2-3 years if they wanted to.

 

[KarenRei]

I just saw the same article and agree that everything suggests that S/X are going to move to 2170 cells. The stopped production of the 75kWh MS/X, the transfer of factories to a JV with Toyota (the capacity to make 100k vehicles should be enough for 200k small Toyotas - a nice test case) and the fact that the S/X are supposed to use the latest tech.

The cap on S/X sales at 100k per year would also end. I wonder what the next bottleneck is and if they could go to 150k vehicles per year now at healthy margins.

Not again in this thread. Please, just, no. If you want a recent thread on the topic, here's a random example:

2170s for the Model S soon [Speculation]

But for just a handful of the other threads going back to 2016(!), full of people adamant that a Model S/X conversion had to, and was certain to, happen imminently, and full of disagrees to anyone who suggested otherwise:

2170 in Model S soon?
When do you think the 2170 battery comes to MX and MS?
Inside EVs 2170 in S and X at end of year
Why Model S/X will not see 2170 cells any time soon.
New Batteries for Model S
Next generation 2170 cell battery packs