Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

Thanks. Well, 1) I'm trying to be cautious, 2) Troy has been superb in the past, 3) I've been overly bullish at times, 4) it is just a leaked email to employees, 5) better to have low expectations and be surprised than have high expectations and be disappointed.

But I have been debating what to do with Troy's estimate.

IIRC, Q3/Q4 it was VA's estimates that was the closest.

 

[JRP3]

I find the apologetics about missed timelines and estimates to be pure rationalization. Planning and decisions are built on an accurate prediction about the future. Any mild effect on 'motivation' by having an almost always wrong overestimate is transient and unreliable. It allows people to make bad decisions and then say 'well I was basing it on this [false] number you guided us for'.

Yeah, because Elon's leadership style really hasn't accomplished much of anything...

 

[Artful Dodger]

More from the 'Floor' in Sparks:

carsonight 2 hours ago

"These recently leaked updates from the Tesla CEO refutes one of the most persistent bear thesis against the company, which suggests that its vehicles are seeing an alleged 'demand cliff.'"​

This is pretty much what I have been hearing. "Factory floor" claims 800 to 1100 batteries, mostly SR, sent to Fremont every day. I have no idea what goes on at Fremont, but those batteries are either going into cars or are being warehoused, and my guess is cars.​

 

[RFernatt]

Trouble in Taycan land. Seems to be a pattern here.

German Authorities Raid Porsche Offices

Authorities say Porsche may have made secret payments to certain senior executives as a possible coverup of illegal dealings.

 

[AcesDealt]

Yeah, because Elon's leadership style really hasn't accomplished much of anything...

Frankly, if someone wants to embarrass themself I think it is more entertaining to use 'Have you landed a rocket on a barge, bro?'

 

[traxila]

Respectfully disagree with the bolded part above - there are plenty of winning stocks in past bear markets, and Tesla is also no longer the “Speculation play”i t used to be 5+ years ago - today it earns enough revenue and operating cashflow, and is growing at a rate to warrant a market cap in the tens of billions.

I totally agree. Which is why I have way too much in TSLA and am feeling the pain. But when the SHTF, what matters is whether or not Mr. Market thinks it is a speculative play. What do you think Mr Market’s opinion is at the moment?

Would love nothing more than to watch the market tank and have TSLA go in the other direction. Easy to say that is not what is happening now.

 

[neroden]

I've seen a few references to the idea that there are 2 S/X lines right now and that Tesla will have to remove 1 to put in a Y line. What are the thoughts on the accuracy of the various parts of this claim?

a) Is it 2 lines right now?
b) Can they support demand with just 1? What would be the max output?
c) Would they only get 1 line for the Y out of this? Could they also add more floor space for a 2nd?

Ultimately the ideal scenario is for N.American factories to support N.America, and so on. The 7k/week for the model 3 current output just for N.America is a pretty ambitious number long-term. I can see moving S/X equipment to Shanghai if it is removed from Fremont (right? that seems obvious?). It would be nice to see Tesla move on a Europe plant. Man this stock drop is p*ss*ng me off. I'd vastly prefer they be going all out on cap.ex and the market cap still high on promises and hope. Elon has claimed that cap.ex spend is not slowing them down but I don't believe him. A Europe factory makes sense pronto.

You are new here. Do your damn homework. Last time I give you freebinfo. Model S and Model X have been sharing a general assembly line but have had two separate body lines, even though the X line was designed to do both S and X. Everyone who took a factory tour in the last 4 years knows this, and it was mentioned in quarterly earnings calls.

 

[AcesDealt]

You are new here. Do your damn homework. Last time I give you freebinfo. Model S and Model X have been sharing a general assembly line but have had two separate body lines, even though the X line was designed to do both S and X. Everyone who took a factory tour in the last 4 years knows this, and it was mentioned in quarterly earnings calls.

Where's the 'endearing' button?

 

[SPadival]

The latest insanity from Anton Wahlman:
The U.S. Should Ban All Electric Cars in the Interest of National Security

The question is which of the four United States that Antoon has inside his head that should ban all electric cars *cough* Teslas *cough*?

The case to split the United States into four countries for Trump, Cruz, Clinton and Sanders

 

[powertoold]

Lol I lose a bit of faith in humanity every time someone says Elon kills people

 

[JRP3]

Frankly, if someone wants to embarrass themself I think it is more entertaining to use 'Have you landed a rocket on a barge, bro?'

Clearly you know more about embarrassing oneself than I. I defer to your greater experience.

 

[Carl Raymond]

The key is FSD. If can make it work Telsa profits will skyrocket.
Good luck to Elon, hasn't let me down yet.

A key is FSD. Another key is deliver lots of cars.

To appreciate Tesla, it is necessary to hold two thoughts at one time.

(Edit: put another way, there are excellent profits on the road to obscene profits)

 

[BioSehnsucht]

What’s the rationale for disclosing the model 3 made in China price this early? Seems like an easy way to Osborne the current product

Are they even selling SR/SR+ to China currently? It probably won't Osbourne much if any the LR models since there is such a large price gap and those who want the higher end ones are willing to pay for it. If they're not shipping SR/SR+ to China from Fremont, then they can't Osbourne the US produced SR with Chinese SR.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Chademo adapter for model 3 coming.

Tesla Will Offer CHAdeMO Adapter For US Model 3 Owners "Soon" | CleanTechnica

I wonder if this will be able to use higher amperage CHAdeMO chargers (if they ever get widely deployed). Part of CHAdeMO's claimed charge rate is using voltages beyond what Teslas can use, but there is a newer flavor of the standard that supposedly can also do higher amperage which if it can do higher amperage at lower voltage would be less terrible. The original CHAdeMO standard, when used with Teslas, could only provide 50kW of power which is better than high-amp L2 AC charging but not by a lot compared to DCFC like Supercharger.

While I'm fine with a CHAdeMO adapter being released for those that want it, I'd rather see a Type 1 CCS adapter for S/X/3/... you're more likely to get a better charge rate out of it, if you're having to make do with 3rd party charging.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Both name and description argue against it being active. And even if it were active, I don't see any reason to use an ultracap. Truly active suspension could overwhelm a regular 12v battery. That's why Maxwell markets their ultracaps to ICE carmakers as the best energy storage option for active suspension. But the power levels are nothing compared to accelerating and regeneratively braking a 2+ ton car. Tesla's big batteries can handle those kind of loads in their sleep.

Could be simply that it was cheaper to use the supercaps with lower gauge wiring than to use higher gauge wiring to direct feed the necessary power, especially if it otherwise meant adding more HV (perhaps not ~400V pack level, but more than 12V) connections to the battery pack to make the wiring size reasonable.

 

[davecolene0606]

EU bound ships are consistently taking more time to load than China bound ships. So, they are definitely sending more cars per ship to EU than China. They are also sending more cars per ship to EU compared to Q1.

Sounds like confirmation of what Zach said in the Q1 call “ships will be full this time”

Fire Away!

 

[Thekiwi]

Just to be clear...if it comes down to it, SpaceX is Elon's baby. Not taking anything away from his dedication to Tesla, but he started SpaceX from absolute scratch. I think if he was forced to chose one or the other...he would chose SpaceX.

Dan

This is true - and one day, probably a decade form now, Tesla Stockholders will have to deal with he fact that Elon is actually going to announce he intends to be on one of the first Mars trips. In the more medium term, he will likely be taking a trip to earth orbit sometime soon.

 

[jhm]

Just had some relatives over for lunch and wanted to relay a story. We were discussing EV's and Tesla and my cousin said: "I heard they are going bankrupt". He also went on to say they would never have a car near $35k so I took him to the website and we pretended to order a Model 3. We had the entire family gathered around my laptop where I preceded to pull up the standard range Model 3 with no options (Black, stock wheels, black interior and no autopilot) ... total was $39,900 and I told them they could still get $3750 in tax credits. Brings us to $36,150 .... which seemed to shock them. Not sure if they get any additional incentives from their state (TX) but even without any additional incentives they were pleasantly surprised. The next thing he said was: " yeah but when will I get the car? I heard they were really backed up" .... I told him it wouldn't be out of the question to get it in a few weeks. I'm not exactly sure but I'm under the impression that what I told him was accurate. Of course there was also the question about range and where to charge ....

All of which tells me that once again Tesla has to do a better job of educating the average consumer ... I know Elon's not a fan of advertising but I think Tesla needs to give it serious consideration ... just to educate the public.

Cheers to the longs ...

Love this. This story actually suggests a very effective ad for Tesla. Basically show how easy it is to buy a Tesla online and have it delivered to your home. This would be truly disruptive to the dealership sale process. It is radically simple. Go online, select your car, place the order, and take delivery of your new Tesla. No secret hand handshake. No haggling. No being talked in to upgrades you don't want. Radically simple.

This sort of ad is not at all about bs'ing consumers into wanting your product. It is simply about letting potential buyers know that they can afford it and it is easy to do.

 

[EVNow]

Sounds like confirmation of what Zach said in the Q1 call “ships will be full this time”

Fire Away!

Possible for EU, unlikely for China. We have multiple reports of China sales being not that great - so this adds to the evidence.

 

[elasalle]

Washington State EV Tax Credit Reinstated | CleanTechnica
It incentives the purchase or lease of new EVs under $45,000 and used EVs under $33,000, providing up to $2,500 off the sticker price.
will go into effect on August 1st of this year