Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

I am not fine with this approach as the pee will spray back all over his pants and the floor. Relax Elon

Try a different angle.

 

[MP3Mike]

Musk had earlier thought they would build Model Y in Nevada. That would mean brand new equipment in brand new factory etc. That would obviously take a lot of time.

It still requires all new equipment and they said they were going to expand Fremont... So be building too.

Equipment was ordered before they decided the location.

 

[EVNow]

It still requires all new equipment and they said they were going to expand Fremont... So be building too.

Equipment was ordered before they decided the location.

Yes, but would it be faster to install in Fremont ?

For one thing all the 3 line experts will be available in Fremont. With the 3 experience they can build the line faster. Apparently it’s also easier to get experienced workers in Fremont compared to Nevada.

What we don’t know is how much faster will it get. 3 months, six months?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I very much disagree that the stock is setting up to explode to ATH. Melt up at some point due to some short covering and longs coming back in, yes, but the current situation is not a setup for a massive climb to ATH. IMO, that is going to take some time, plus we have the deteriorating trade war going on, possible looming recession, stock market up near ATH. Yes, the stock is down over 50% from ATH, similar to Feb 2016, and there is a massive amount of FUD, also similar to 2016, but otherwise this is a different setup than Feb 2016. The market rocketed up as TSLA rapidly climbed back up too. Are we realistically expecting the stock market to go bonkers climbing in the midst of the macro situation, just 7% below ATH? Do we really expect institutions and analysts to immediately flip 180 if Tesla meets guidance for Q2 deliveries with a solid financial result? That's just not going to happen. I think at best we bounce up at some point but still trade in a lower range than we did prior to this long drop. We will likely need model Y rolling before we could jump to a new ATH. I really wish that wasn't the case, but I think it's reality.

Actually, it's quite similar to Feb '16.
Going into Feb '16 there were macro (credit) fears, that turned on a dime.
We just don't know if that will happen again.

But I do think Tesla story is damaged deeper this time, and only deliveries will cure it.
Profit is less important in my mind, just a serious sustainable uptick in deliveries and resolution to macro, and we can see $350 again in short order.

 

[SPadival]

I am not fine with this approach as the pee will spray back all over his pants and the floor. Relax Elon

You know he is a physics nut.. peeing, for Elon, involves fluid mechanics and laminar flow

 

[woof]

I am not fine with this approach as the pee will spray back all over his pants and the floor. Relax Elon

He's what, 47? In a few years it'll slow down all by itself. Relaxing won't help then either. Trust me.

 

[Ggusev]

I am not fine with this approach as the pee will spray back

Try a different angle.

You guys just created an idea how Boring Company can dig their tunnels faster. Someone please tweet this to Elon Jokes aside, cutting tunnels with high pressure water jet could eventually help to beat the snail.

 

[dqd88]

Man this stock drop is p*ss*ng me off. I'd vastly prefer they be going all out on cap.ex and the market cap still high on promises and hope. Elon has claimed that cap.ex spend is not slowing them down but I don't believe him. A Europe factory makes sense pronto.

I think Tesla really needs to start whispers of a new brand or two. Ultimately they need to be an umbrella of many brands if they are to scale massive, which they should be aiming for. No one wants over saturation of just one brand; brand fatigue will ensue. People want some variety. At least 3 premium brands is needed and Tesla could own them all. Buyout a small player that is injured like Fisker, or Faraday Future. Call the new brand Faraday; that'd be cool. Using same chassis and many of same parts but slightly different design language.
At what point do people in LA or Norway who want a Tesla decide to not buy a Tesla because that's what everyone else is driving? Why not give them an alternative brand that is still under Tesla Inc?
Plus planting the narrative that Tesla will grow into a behemoth of car brands would help reignite excitement from wall st. (Maybe I'm thinking too far ahead though. I tend to do that)

 

[Foghat]

Try a different angle.

I think when we talk about Elon and how he motivates his partners & employees to achieve such historic achievements we have to look at the bigger picture.

The mission is clear. The stakes are high. We have to transform the way we do economic activity or we will have catastrophic problems as a global society.

This is something we all feel. We all want to achieve a better living environment for ourselves, our loved ones and friends.

We have to make a change but don’t know how in such an fossil fuel monopolized world.

Until Elon and friends decided to make the effort and put all their resources into it. An electric car company. A solar company. A rocket company. All doomed to fail, but they did it anyway.

That’s the genesis of a mission worth being apart of. That’s the leadership you’d follow into the abyss. Not just for employees and partners, but retail investors and customers.

The success against all odds needs this to make it past our own worst demons and defensive monopolistic tendencies as a people.

This is why Tesla (as well as Elon’s and crew other companies) will continue to succeed.

Tesla’s story is all our success. It’s not just Elon’s story. It’s the employees story. The investors story. The customers story.

It’s all our story.

So, yes, this approach is the LED in the dark of the abyss to success and transformation that can’t happen any other way or with any other 7 whisky tango foxtrot management system.

 

[printf42]

The key is FSD. If can make it work Telsa profits will skyrocket.
Good luck to Elon, hasn't let me down yet.

FSD is not the key, it’s icing on the cake, Tesla doesn’t depend on that to be successful.
But it might turns out to be an iceberg though.

 

[anthonyj]

Be afraid shorties. Be very afraid.

Elon Musk planning the next short squeeze, colorized (2019)

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

...
Tesla has clear sight on 50k orders in 51 days, plus recent trends and inventory cars; hence the remaining 40 days expectation should not be off by 40% (24k bs 41k). I am hoping (and guessing) that Troy Teslike is being very conservative.

I know that @ZachShahan did it to suggest the buffer and blunt the shock effect if Tesla underdelivers.

Wording that was used was "50K orders for Q2", not "50K orders in Q2", so you don't know for sure that's 51 days.
Maybe it is, but it's not certain.
For example, all of the 'in transit' orders could potentially be part of 50K. Alternatively, all orders placed in Q1 after the cut-off delivery date could be part of that 50K.

 

[KSilver2000]

The key is FSD. If can make it work Telsa profits will skyrocket.
Good luck to Elon, hasn't let me down yet.

Just curious, what was your analysis of the Solar City acquisition?

 

[carterm2]

I believe you’re not fully accounting for the innovations, harder work, inspirations and unpaid overtime the outlandish goals bring.

In other words, if Elon stopped the outlandish goals, creativity, productivity and innovation would all go down and costs would go up.

I agree, but I sometimes wonder if Elon believes that if you put an image of a better product in the minds of the worker, investor, everyone. Their ability to visualize the product will affect the creation of it sooner. He has successfully put the image of human civilization on Mars into the minds of millions. Reminds me of the Bible, seek and you shall find... and it reminds me of his comments about life as a hologram.
Or perhaps its just as it seems, he can see what something should be, can see how to do it and the recipe seems simpler to him than it is. So it takes a little longer in reality.

 

[EVNow]

Wording that was used was "50K orders for Q2", not "50K orders in Q2", so you don't know for sure that's 51 days.
Maybe it is, but it's not certain.
For example, all of the 'in transit' orders could potentially be part of 50K. Alternatively, all orders placed in Q1 after the cut-off delivery date could be part of that 50K.

He wrote “net new orders for this quarter “.

I would interpret “new” as orders that were not present at the beginning of the quarter. Net could mean those not yet fulfilled or trivially not yet cancelled. It’s unlikely to be the former.

 

[Fact Checking]

That would mean brand new equipment in brand new factory etc. That would obviously take a lot of time.

No, the exact opposite is the case: Tesla already ordered Model Y tooling end of last year (which is ~80% of the cost of a new factory), which they could install in Fremont or in Nevada.

Installing it in Fremont saves time and capex, see this comment of mine back in January that interpreted the 75D changes as a sign that Fremont might get expanded for the Model Y:

Note that I can see four low capex methods to make space at Fremont for Model Y production:

• Retool the Model S body line - this just got easier to do.
• Use the space of the 75D pack assembly lines - this too just got easier to do as well with the new Model S/X.
• Free up and shrink warehouse space at Fremont and re-purpose it as factory floor space. Guess what: Tesla is applying the finishing touches on their new giant warehouse just 55 miles away from Fremont: "Tesla’s massive distribution center in Northern California is coming to life".
• Reduce the complexity of the Model S/X interior, this would free up plastic molding lines at the molding shop. (See 'plastics' on the map below.) The rumored/leaked Model S/X interior refresh might enable this.

A fourth, high capex method is to build new buildings at Fremont:

The blue areas are still available expansion areas I believe - but those would have longer lead time than the re-purposing of existing factory floor space, and would cost significantly more.

Anyway, I think the chances have now increased that Tesla might be able to build the Model Y at Fremont. The other option would be to do it at the Nevada Gigafactory.

If the leaks are accurate they appear to be using ALL the Fremont expansion methods I outlined.

But now that they have apparently decided they will build Model Y in Fremont, is it really possible to expedite the production and start making sample cars in 2019 itself ? I know many had hoped that they would make Y in 2019 and were disappointed when Tesla announced 2020 date. But 2019 feasible - even for Tesla ?

Yes, it's possible I think, because they save construction time (GF1 is full): Shanghai took 6 months at China pace - Nevada would have been 9 months at minimum IMO.

There's also time needed to build and train a new workforce - while this is much more readily available at Fremont.

So building the Model Y at Fremont is accelerating the Model Y timeline by about 9-12 months IMO, and it also reduces ramp-up risks and speeds up not just installation but also ramp-up.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

As to the EM being on the calls debate: I do not remember which relatively recent call it was but, IMO, the best call scenario is EM is there BUT he puts all his various commanders on to talk about their areas of the company.....CFO, Jerome, Karparthy, JB.....etc and direct analysts' questions to the appropriate person.

He could give a short preamble or post script....AND STAY on SCRIPT

You know as well as many of us here that best way to have Elon stick to the script, is to remove him from the script.
Probably the only way.
I'm ok with him helping write the script, I believe he's less prone to hyperbole in that mode, and feels less need to dazzle.
Short and interactive forms are where he shoot himself in the foot.

 

[carterm2]

PreOrders for China Model 3 manufactured at GF3 should be impressive, given that the market is 4 times larger than the US. It sounds like the folks in China a better tuned into electric vehicles and likely haven't had the FUD exposure that we have in the US. I think tomorrow will see a different trading pattern. I get a lighter feeling from the posts here as well. So the last two times the stock broke through the downward channel and dropped dramatically, it also rebounded .. are we there yet?

 

[larmor]

The Chinese economy is a lot weaker IMHO, than many think.

By weaker do you mean making large factories (not tesla) making high-grade technical components in a clean factory environment, do you mean packed shopping mall- Including the largest Apple Store, do you mean clean streets? I wish the US economy was this weak...

 

[Spacemanspliff]

It sounds like the folks in China a better tuned into electric vehicles and likely haven't had the FUD exposure that we have in the US

I think it’s the opposite, I think all Chinese buyers have heard all the FUD regarding Tesla the company and the cars. It might even be more effective, cause it doesn’t seem like sales are particularly strong there.