Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

Or look at Aptera. That car was beautiful. I wanted to drive that alien space pod around town. A few messups and... no company.

Me too. When Aptera died, I wanted a LitMotors C4. Ultimately I had to settle for a Model S.

 

[Todd Burch]

To the maritime stalkers in the crowd:

Any ships head out lately? If we have a hope of this wave unwinding, we need some ships to depart in June.

 

[neroden]

how come there are still Volt's? i thought they were Discontinued or some such
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Dealerships. The manufacturer stopped making them but it takes a while for the ones already on dealers' lots to get sold.

 

[TradingInvest]

I think Model 3 is simply the best car ever made. If you don't own a Model 3, I suggest you ask a friend who owns a Model 3, or rent one for a week. Model 3 SR+ has a true cost of $30k compared to gasoline cars, but it's WAY better than gasoline cars. Those who say EV will remain a niche market are either lying or have no clue what they are talking about. In 4~5 years EV demand will reach 30 million per year, Tesla will remain the most wanted brand, that's my view.

Whoever the activist investor is, I agree with his view that the current situation is similar to NFLX in 2011. At that time, NFLX had big drop and supposedly competition was coming. Shorts were piling on. Shorts failed to see that Netflix subscribers were quite happy.

I will point out one difference: in 2011, if Amazon, Walmart, Disney, or Apple were serious about competing with NFLX, they could have defeated Netflix. I can't imagine how other companies can defeat Tesla.

Smart investors don't read the BS from Wall Street. Lou Simpson, Carl Icahn, etc. all do their own research. I imagine the first thing a smart investor would do is to talk to real Tesla owners and test drive Tesla vehicles.

Keep in mind NFLX had a second down leg in 2012.

 

[schonelucht]

To the maritime stalkers in the crowd:

Any ships head out lately? If we have a hope of this wave unwinding, we need some ships to depart in June.

Grand Quest is at Pier 80 loading. Unfortunately this may be the last one for the quarter. There are no other car carriers heading to SF. But sometimes there is a surprise arrival.

 

[Remus]

Me thinks, Musk isn't that bright in choosing different words and phrases depending on the audience. It is a gift and curse.

It is a gift because that is what endears him with his millions of followers, as he comes out pretty honest. In fact I haven't seen someone at that level so brutally honest.

Its a curse, because at his position as a CEO of a public company and given that there very very powerful vested interests rooting for his failure with MSM very eager to twist his words, he has to be very careful in what he says. This is not only about avoiding words like

'burning cash', 'weeks away from bankruptcy', 'if we make base Model 3 now we will die' , 'LIDAR is a fools errand' etc..

but also about giving aggressive timelines, production & profit estimates.

It's actually very baffling as Elon's words are very rarely "accurate", very often full of ambiguity. I just don't understand how he can be like that while being a brilliant engineer. Engineering and science require accuracy in communication.

 

[Todd Burch]

Grand Quest is at Pier 80 loading. Unfortunately this may be the last one for the quarter. There are no other car carriers heading to SF. But sometimes there is a surprise arrival.

Any ships that load up in the last month of the Q are a good sign, because it means the wave is being unwound. I wouldn't imagine this one has a load that is expected to be delivered in 25 days.

 

[gene]

There is a phenomena that I have observed called the bigger fool. It works something like when the neighbor says, "Gee, are you still buying gasoline?" If others aren't paying for something then they feel foolish for being stuck paying for something others avoid or get free. It is a pretty strong motivator at some point.

I have seen a bumper sticker "It's 2019 and you're still buying gas?" Too bad I don't put stickers on my Tesla's.

 

[Chop110]

As we are still in the midst of all the BS declining demand narrative perpetuated by the Short/Big oil/traditional auto establishment friendly media, I took a hiatus from this forum. Just wanted to drop by and see how everyone is holding up. For the record, I still haven’t sold any of my shares I bought at 300. I try not to look at it and am hopeful for the 2nd QTR sales to kill the waning demand narrative.

 

[Foghat]

Who do you trust more, your friends and family who own Teslas or a mainstream news network telling you Tesla sucks?

This is why you don’t bet against Elon in this time of Wall Street warfare on the company.

 

[Remus]

If I worked at Tesla in the prestigious autopilot division, where I have the ability to go anywhere I please and make 300k$+ per year, I too would be aggravated my upside is diluted by residential solar and other silly ADHD projects.

the exact reason why cruise is hopless, is that it's not fully integrated with their car making business. Autopilot would not be what it is today without participating in car making.

 

[NicoV]

EU numbers are actually not that brilliant so far. We are looking at only 4000 or so total deliveries S/X/3 in May. S and X remain extremely weak with both around 500 cars each with no Raven cars available. Hopefully China is doing better. As last quarter everything will be decided in the final two weeks of the quarter.

How could they be brilliant, with the first ship of the quarter only arriving the 8th, and all leftovers from Q1 delivered in April?
If we indeed get to 4K in May, we wil be at 8K for the first 2 months of the quarter, which is twice the amount of the same period in Q1.
We don’t need an end-of-quarter rush in Q2, we need filling-of-the-pipeline so that july and august can deliver the same amount of cars as september. Tesla needs to get in a steady state delivery mode in Europe.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Grand Quest is at Pier 80 loading. Unfortunately this may be the last one for the quarter. There are no other car carriers heading to SF. But sometimes there is a surprise arrival.

We need to know if any are RHD...

 

[GBleck]

It's actually very baffling as Elon's words are very rarely "accurate", very often full of ambiguity. I just don't understand how he can be like that while being a brilliant engineer. Engineering and science require accuracy in communication.

Ambiguous phrasing is more accurate when you are discussing things with large unknown unknowns.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

LOL you've heard of at least ONE upgrade and can't find it? That's 80% of a Speck of information.

I'm waiting for an MCU upgrade myself and have only seen two tweets from Elon to document that it exists. I spoke to an Austin-based FSD engineer who said MCU2 is designed to be a drop-in replacement for MCU1... same connectors and all that. I have a friend whose MCU1 broke and he claims they gave him an MCU2 as part of the warranty fix... but I haven't seen it for myself and don't believe it until I do. I spoke to my local Tesla service folks about the upgrade, and they say MCU2 has issues. Haven't heard anyone talk about MCU3 or 4 except you in that post! I don't think it will happen at all, and will probably have to buy another car with my MCU2 wrapped around it.

There have been a few reports on the S side of the forums of people whose MCU broke and was replaced with MCU2. So far as I know, that’s currently the only way to “upgrade”, and even then it’s random whether you get it or are just switched out with a refurbished MCU1(presumably depending on what they have on hand).

That said, I waited more than 2 years for the Bioweapon Defense Mode upgrade for the S, eventually convinced it wouldn’t happen, and then it was suddenly there one day. Hard to predict these things with this company.

 

[Drax7]

I think Model 3 is simply the best car ever made. If you don't own a Model 3, I suggest you ask a friend who owns a Model 3, or rent one for a week. Model 3 SR+ has a true cost of $30k compared to gasoline cars, but it's WAY better than gasoline cars. Those who say EV will remain a niche market are either lying or have no clue what they are talking about. In 4~5 years EV demand will reach 30 million per year, Tesla will remain the most wanted brand, that's my view.

Whoever the activist investor is, I agree with his view that the current situation is similar to NFLX in 2011. At that time, NFLX had big drop and supposedly competition was coming. Shorts were piling on. Shorts failed to see that Netflix subscribers were quite happy.

I will point out one difference: in 2011, if Amazon, Walmart, Disney, or Apple were serious about competing with NFLX, they could have defeated Netflix. I can't imagine how other companies can defeat Tesla.

Smart investors don't read the BS from Wall Street. Lou Simpson, Carl Icahn, etc. all do their own research. I imagine the first thing a smart investor would do is to talk to real Tesla owners and test drive Tesla vehicles.

Keep in mind NFLX had a second down leg in 2012.

Nflx did some awful stuff back then, the founder was selling 40,000 shares per month
On automatic pilot, And then the firm was borrowing money to buy its own stock back.
That blew away my confidence in the company.

However, Elon buys his own stock whenever the company issues. Practically
The opposite, unheard of and mind blowing.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I have seen a bumper sticker "It's 2019 and you're still buying gas?" Too bad I don't put stickers on my Tesla's.

And it would give someone a good reason to key your Tesla. I would be willing to put the stickers on my gas cars though.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Congrats to anyone who bought yesterday.

I finally convinced one of my coworkers to purchase into TSLA, and he did so yesterday.

He only bought one stock though.

So, I guess it's something? Or maybe he's the cause of the turn? xD

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

There have been a few reports on the S side of the forums of people whose MCU broke and was replaced with MCU2. So far as I know, that’s currently the only way to “upgrade”, and even then it’s random whether you get it or are just switched out with a refurbished MCU1(presumably depending on what they have on hand).

UK here. My MCU1 has failed (screen stops responding to input occasionally), and is currently in service center. they explicitly told me it couldn't be replaced with MCU2. Maybe they are wrong, and I haven't got it back yet, but loaner has MCU2 and is way better (also way better reversing camera).

 

[capster]

Thanks for your advice. The reason I posted here is BECAUSE this is the market/investor thread. First of all, the reason I initially came to Tesla is because of TSLA. Who better to get answers from than those who have invested hundreds of thousands of dollars of their own money in the company? Or even if less, they believe in the company and have researched it from top to bottom.

I didn't want fanboi stuff, I wanted info from people who had actual money on the line. Perhaps I was mistaken.

Dan

Yes you may have been a mistaken. The "fanboi" gave you way though the your prior post was laughable, too.

And, off to ignore with you.