Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SO16]

.

How are they gonna conjure up many of those 'Electric Vehicle vehicles' from nothing in 8-12 months?

You mean VW Vapor Vans?

No, it’s 12-18 months. HUGE difference! /s

 

[Cherry Wine]

This was a prescient call at $280...

Now, if demand picture gets clear and it isn't too bad, I expect us to retrace steps back to high 2xx... I expect 80-85K deliveries place us there. Current SP is set for nuclear winter.

When you get bullish, I pay attention.

 

[UncaNed]

OT


Ridiculous, dangerous fantasy material.

Most are fast neutron reactors.

The really dumb designs are the sodium-cooled and salt-cooled designs, which generate intractable strontium and cesium waste, which is *very* expensive to clean up. Look up Dounreay and the US prototypes for examples of trying to clean it up -- it costs over 10 times what it costs to clean up a normal nuclear reactor, and that's saying something! Using the waste from existing reactors is nice enough, but dealing with the strontium/cesium contaminated salts is FAR worse. Mind-bogglingly expensive.

The lead-cooled designs are terrible too, prone to even higher corrosion than the usual reactor designs. They leak.

The helium-cooled reactors (including the "very high temperature reactor") are unsustainable. We're already running out of helium, which is a nonrenewable resource generated very slowly from radioactive decay.
In addition, the graphite-moderated designs (including the "very high temperature reactor") create giant blogs of radioactive graphite, one of the more annoying types of radioactive waste to deal with.

The supercricial water cooled reactor is just like the existing reactors but more likely to blow up.
The gas-cooled fast reactor is basically like some of the older designs, but more likely to blow up.

In other words, it's all hype. They're all massively expensive generators of waste which is extremely expensive to clean up. All of them are full of toxic materials and full of rare materials which are permanently contaminated and wasted by the reactor processes.

Every one of them is basically an exceptionally dumb way to generate heat, followed by a highly inefficient thermal engine. Solar and wind, which generate electricity *directly* with no wasteful heat step, are far better in every possible way.

...running off to sell my Gen IV Nuke shares and put it into Clean Coal shares.

...per your advice.

 

[Causalien]

In 1 month we shall know if my 8ball prophecy for $180 comes true and marks the true bottom.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thanks for the info.

Lease-return Robotaxi's in Beijing in 3yr years CONFIRMED!

(ducks)

 

[neroden]

...running off to sell my Gen IV Nuke shares and put it into Clean Coal shares.

That's another really dumb way to generate heat

...per your advice.

Read my advice more carefully.

The technological trend, in everything, has been from moving parts and heat engines to solid state, cold operation, and minimal moving parts. Any energy investment needs to think about this.

If you've got a miracle energy scheme, it has to have as few moving parts as a wind turbine in order to have a chance economically. Zero, like a solar panel, is better.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

When you get bullish, I pay attention.

Hey, hey, I'm an Engineer, let me throw in disclaimer
I'm not certain of timeline, but I expect there is a good chance in short term we do well, and great chance in mid term to do well.

 

[Icer]

Thx neroden

Fossi (Montana Skeptic) admitted on the recent TeslaQ podcast
that he lost a ton of money shorting TSLA, BTW.
Flat out said, don't short
Heh.
*
May I ask, How?
How do you do it?
I knew one kid, claimed to have a photographic memory
Always straight A's without breaking a sweat
Became a classical musician, teaches.

Is that the way things are for you?
You simply recall all the various things?

It is always a pleasure to read.
Thx.

 

[Steve m]

This is a cool presentation..

Animation: U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales (2010-19)

 

[22522]

I'm cheap, I don't want to buy his book. When did he think you *should* use it?

He describes the behavior that most manipulators exploit.

 

[PeterJA]

InsideEV May US sales:
Tesla Model 3: 13,950
Chevy Bolt: 1,396

Yep.

Back when Anton Wahlman published hilarious articles on Seeking Alpha about Bolt outselling Model 3 (after month one of the Model 3 production ramp), I guessed that Model 3 was gonna do to Bolt what Model S did to Cadillac ELR. It's all over except the cancellation.

Edit: Whoops I forgot GM is trying to use Bolt for robotaxis. So cancellation may take a bit longer, after RoboBolts fail to generate the ride business of RoboTeslas.

 

[AlMc]

In 1 month we shall know if my 8ball prophecy for $180 comes true and marks the true bottom.

My WAG was lower (actually about $150 but I had a buy order in at $172), but your eight ball has been uncannily accurate in the past.

 

[electrichapp]

robinhood ownership still increasing. good sign imo Robintrack

 

[GaryW]

This is a cool presentation..

Animation: U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales (2010-19)

It looks like it tracks units. It would more interesting if it tracked dollars, since the site has capitalist in it’s name.

 

[JusRelax]

New video of enhaced summon from newest firmware:

 

[PeterJA]

Trump's new threat about Mexican tariffs may cause another TSLA dip tomorrow.
Trump Says No Deal With Mexico Reached as Border Arrests Surge

 

[capster]

That's another really dumb way to generate heat


Read my advice more carefully.

The technological trend, in everything, has been from moving parts and heat engines to solid state, cold operation, and minimal moving parts. Any energy investment needs to think about this.

If you've got a miracle energy scheme, it has to have as few moving parts as a wind turbine in order to have a chance economically. Zero, like a solar panel, is better.

I just tell people that fusion is a solved problem, we just need to collect all that free energy.

Though strictly speaking there are, er, quite a few moving parts in a star. Just sayin’.

 

[GeckOo]

Yes the 8 year thing seems crazy but I am wondering if it's because all of China's EV comes with *sugar* or no battery management system and the life of the cars end up being short lived. Let's see if Tesla can negotiate a longer term with data to prove their cars can last 350k miles. If so then it will be HUGE. All this talk about numbers sold/prices we completely forgot that Tesla is the only electric car company that does battery management right.

As a Chinese I don’t know where this 8 years expired thing comes from. Sources please. The price for a plate in BJ or SH is over 100k rmb. There is no reason authority put a expiration on it. Even Tesla has shown a good relationship with local gov, they probably has some plates from them as gifts. However if you use it for leasing could become a legal problem. So my guess some of marketing team members come up this idea and they do understand the pain of some potential customers. And they just published it without consulting with legal team or authority. Then medias spread it quickly drawing attention from governments and they “kindly” reminded them to pull off the ads. That’s all. No plate leasing anymore. If you do want to buy a car without plate on hand. You can always come to a dealer with less money not even close to 60k for renting a plate (20k-35k/3 years). I don’t know where Tesla team brings out this number. Again they try their best to stimulate the sales for high end cars. Don’t except too much on this event.

 

[capster]

Trump's new threat about Mexican tariffs may cause another TSLA dip tomorrow.
Trump Says No Deal With Mexico Reached as Border Arrests Surge

Cover

 

[TradingInvest]

I'm cheap, I don't want to buy his book. When did he think you *should* use it?

1. In the first year or two, while you are still learning to invest, it's much safer to operate on a cash basis.
2. Generally margin buying should be done by younger investors who are still working. Their risk is somewhat less because they have more time to prepare for retirement.
3. The best time to use margin is usually during the first two years of a few bull market. Once you recognize a new bear market, you should get off margin immediately and raise as much cash as possible.
4. If a stock in your margin account collapses in value to a point where your stockbroker asks you to put up money or sell stock, don't put up money, think about selling stocks.

O'Neil also said "All of this depends upon the current market situation and your level of experience. I have always used margin and believe it offers a real advantage to an experienced investor who knows how to confine his or her buying to quality market leaders and who has the discipline and common sense to always cut losses short with no exceptions."

These are general rules. Everyone's situation and every stock is different. I think there is a decent chance for TSLA to rally higher from 180, definitely I'm not suggesting people to close positions with a big loss then watch the stock to fly. I just hope people understand what's right what's wrong regarding using margin, so they don't get hurt down the road.