Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Beltsbear]

Like Tesla youtube channel has a new video about the S refresh. Claims 3 motor design, 350 pound weight decrease, range north of 400 miles.

Very likely that the three motors really is the roadster setup. They didn’t make the raven setup for just a few months use. The rest of the stuff could be true. Like a new pack to get us to 400, probably lighter but still 18650 based.

 

[bdy0627]

How about this total hit-job which just appeared on my yahoo news feed:

Tesla's European Demand Problems Offer a Stark Warning

What a yahoo. (Quote: Model S and X = Dead platforms walking)

Here's some quotes from the article. Try and guess what the FUD angle is:

"domestic demand problems piling up
North American demand for the new Model 3 sedan failed
Europe...has proven especially bleak.
things rapidly began to fizzle in major European markets
May's delivery numbers show little hope of improvement
In Norway, Model 3 uptake slowed...an obviously distressing demand level
Tesla apparently faced similar difficulties finding buyers in The Netherlands
The Dutch situation may actually be even worse than it at first appears
Volkswagen's (XTER:VOW) e-Golf blew past the Model 3 with 885 deliveries in May
in The Netherlands, the Model 3 only managed to narrowly outsell Hyundai's (005385.KS) Kona thanks to its May 31 fleet sale
Model S luxury sedan and the Model X small SUV, have fallen from favor across major European markets
In Norway, the Model S is ailing badly
If the Model S was sick in Norway, it is on life-support in The Netherlands
Disclosure: Author is short Tesla" - oh really, no sh!t?!!

 

[hcdavis3]

Here's some quotes from the article. Try and guess what the FUD angle is:

"domestic demand problems piling up
North American demand for the new Model 3 sedan failed
Europe...has proven especially bleak.
things rapidly began to fizzle in major European markets
May's delivery numbers show little hope of improvement
In Norway, Model 3 uptake slowed...an obviously distressing demand level
Tesla apparently faced similar difficulties finding buyers in The Netherlands
The Dutch situation may actually be even worse than it at first appears
Volkswagen's (XTER:VOW) e-Golf blew past the Model 3 with 885 deliveries in May
in The Netherlands, the Model 3 only managed to narrowly outsell Hyundai's (005385.KS) Kona thanks to its May 31 fleet sale
Model S luxury sedan and the Model X small SUV, have fallen from favor across major European markets
In Norway, the Model S is ailing badly
If the Model S was sick in Norway, it is on life-support in The Netherlands
Disclosure: Author is short Tesla" - oh really, no sh!t?!!

This is all bullshit

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Personally, I actively DO NOT WANT any faster chargers. The current ones let me top up my battery whilst grabbing a coffee and a bun. I dont want to have to eat my bun any faster.

And re: the press... I absolutely ignore absolutely all reporting on tesla that is not from a site like cleantechnica, insideevs, the tesla daily podcast or directly from tesla or elon musk. Everybody else is a lying, smearing, inaccurate, manipulative lying pile of cr*p. I wouldn't believe cnbc or biz insider if they told me the sky was blue.

 

[Carl Raymond]

That Tesla isn't a gascar company, that it shouldn't be in the automotive sector, and that TSLA's price should be in inverse correlation with auto stocks hasn't been understood by much of Wall Street yet though, but eventually it might happen, any year now!

And if we zoom out further, the oil price is used as a measure of the health of the entire economy. A lacklustre oil price drags on the macros.

This too needs inverting. A high oil price in future indicates an economy failing to transition to fossil free technologies. i.e. Dropping out of the first world.

 

[elasalle]

Very likely that the three motors really is the roadster setup. They didn’t make the raven setup for just a few months use. The rest of the stuff could be true. Like a new pack to get us to 400, probably lighter but still 18650 based.

Both LL and Grant have links to Thanos.

 

[Beltsbear]

Love VW's new (non-existent) EV ad:

Pretty ballsy to mention their own scandal in the ad.

 

[neroden]

RHD will save Q3. Remember Elon suggested June/July deliveries? So, these should start shipping close to Q2 end. Given it's an untapped market, it could easily fill the tax credit pull forward hole in U.S.
Also, China orders could pick up given a pretty small price difference between U.S./local version and a shorter wait.

Well, yeah, I expect a nice big hunk of high-margin RHD deliveries in Q3... I just don't think they're mostly going to get there in July. I'm expecting August.

So don't be surprised if there is Wall Street hysteria over July inside-evs numbers, even though it's an artifact of shipping and Q3 numbers will be fine.

 

[RIP->OPEC]

"Tesla is going to be "worthless" as far as the equity is concerned, their Model 3 is complete garbage"... says William Smith of Blaine Capital

Can you believe this guy? Short sellers are pure evil counterproductive predators... Read the full story Stay with the video until the end. Elon sure could use a friend on the Street right now, he could also use a tough Counter-Argument PR Firm as well...

 

[bhtooefr]

And InsideEVs numbers are only showing US sales, right?

(Watch for hysteria over those being much lower, even though they're not considering all of the export sales...)

 

[elasalle]

"Tesla is going to be "worthless" as far as the equity is concerned, their Model 3 is complete garbage"... says William Smith of Blaine Capital

Can you believe this guy? Read the full story

Some parts of CNBC are "PAY FOR SAY" ..

 

[MarcusMaximus]

"Tesla is going to be "worthless" as far as the equity is concerned, their Model 3 is complete garbage"... says William Smith of Blaine Capital

Can you believe this guy? Read the full story Stay with it till the end.

I kind of love that that video showed up the same day that the stock skyrocketed.

 

[PeterJA]

How about this total hit-job which just appeared on my yahoo news feed:

Tesla's European Demand Problems Offer a Stark Warning

What a yahoo. (Quote: Model S and X = Dead platforms walking)

The author is John Engle, one of the worst FUDsters on Seeking Alpha. His article is published on something called GuruFocus.com. Maybe it was too full of merde for SA (as impossible as that may seem).

 

[neroden]

Do you folks see the current SP levels as a rare buying opportunity?

yes

So you think it's wise to buy on margin now?

no

I haven't yet but if I run out of dry power I will be tempted. It's a tempting gamble.

The issue is that if you are buying TSLA with margin from your TSLA, then if the stock drops temporarily and/or the brokerage raises your margin requirement (like they just did) -- they can raise it to 100% -- you're screwed and have a forced sale.

If you're buying TSLA with margin from a DIFFERENT stock, or a bond, or some other sort of loan, then that's much less likely. The key is that the collateral you're using for the loan which you're buying Tesla with should *not* be correlated with the stock movement of TSLA or the broker's attitude towards TSLA.

Bottom line: it's safer to mortgage your house to buy TSLA than it is to buy TSLA on margin in an account which has nothing but TSLA.

 

[Carl Raymond]

OMFG, she's jumped the friction' shark here (we really need a ROFLOL emoji BTW)

'Suspension problems have dogged Tesla Model S and X vehicles for years to the point that observers on the internet have started referring to them as "whompy wheels."'

So Lopez is the true identity of Keefwivaneff ???

Stay tuned for her next article on how Spacex faked the barge landings.

 

[AlexS]

double top forming in shares shorted

 

[neroden]

Other possibilities for the extra 10 GWh’s in 2nd half of this year are:
1) S&X refresh
2) Semi
3) Pickup (much less likely I think)
4) Surprise product

Those 10 GWh’s have to go somewhere and Tesla only projects 1-2 additional GWh’s for Tesla Energy

Oh, they'll make as many Powerwalls and Powerpacks as they can; the backlog is *insane*.

and no more than 7k Model 3’s / week (which should be covered by existing 24 GWh/year capacity).

They'll be shipping packs to Shanghai initially.

Let’s call it the great 10 GWh use case guessing game.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Meh ... get out of my head and leave my thoughts alone! That was exactly what i was thinking earlier this week, when i closed my position and bought back most of it this morning. :-D

I like the look of the Model Y btw. Imho, it's better looking than the 3.



I think that is the case, if you combine it with lower growth expectations. For most of my fellow bears, who are not in the bankruptcy camp, it is a question of sustained demand vs. margins. A lot of us suspect that demand, once the backlog is completely gone, is not enough to support high enough prices to achieve above industry average margins. Without that and slower than expected growth, valuation multiples may come down faster than the company is growing, which should be enough for the stock price to decline a bit more.

This was a prescient call at $280...

Now, if demand picture gets clear and it isn't too bad, I expect us to retrace steps back to high 2xx... I expect 80-85K deliveries place us there. Current SP is set for nuclear winter.

 

[MaryAnning3]

yes


no


The issue is that if you are buying TSLA with margin from your TSLA, then if the stock drops temporarily and/or the brokerage raises your margin requirement (like they just did) -- they can raise it to 100% -- you're screwed and have a forced sale.

If you're buying TSLA with margin from a DIFFERENT stock, or a bond, or some other sort of loan, then that's much less likely. The key is that the collateral you're using for the loan which you're buying Tesla with should *not* be correlated with the stock movement of TSLA or the broker's attitude towards TSLA.

Bottom line: it's safer to mortgage your house to buy TSLA than it is to buy TSLA on margin in an account which has nothing but TSLA.

so you are saying buy now (with cash) at like $198?

 

[RIP->OPEC]

I kind of love that that video showed up the same day that the stock skyrocketed.

Agreed, that was slap in his face for sure!... lol... but the daily non-stop battering from guys like this is hurting Tesla sales as well as the long-term stock outlook. It requires a counter punch for sure. People are gullible and they often listen to these naysayers without vetting their comments. NOT GOOD by any measure over the long haul. Here, listen again to his heavily biased analysis for those that missed it.. they are either complete lies, half truths or disproportionate targeted hits: Read the full story