Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Watch this video. Does this seem high level to you? I wouldn't trust this version of enhanced summon. Elon tweeted a picture of a bomb plus your mind. To me that means it'll blow your mind. I certainly hope fsd isn't anywhere near this level, especially considering tesla seems to have gone in the direction of a full court press on fsd.

You didn't read what I wrote. The claim that it "will blow peoples minds" was not a statement that it will perform at a high level upon its initial release, it was a reference to the sensation it will cause when people see cars driving by them in parking lots with no one inside.

You also appear to have missed the fact that it hasn't been released yet. And there's a reason for that. It's a technology that is still being developed.

 

[powertoold]

You didn't read what I wrote. The claim that it "will blow peoples minds" was not a statement that it will perform at a high level upon its initial release, it was a reference to the sensation it will cause when people see cars driving by them in parking lots with no one inside.

You also appear to have missed the fact that it hasn't been released yet. And there's a reason for that. It's a technology that is still being developed.

In its current state, I think it will cause more annoyance than amazement.

 

[Sean Wagner]

IMHO, he's talked too much about FSD recently; I hope he keeps it to a minimum. Some people are in love with the FSD concept, but the more he talks about it, the more nervous FSD-doubters get about Tesla's stock, as it makes it look like Tesla is betting its future on a tech that a lot of people don't believe will be ready any time soon, if ever - ...

Clap cLap clAp claP c lap cl ap cla p C lap cL ap clA p CLAP. [nO copy'n pAsting to underscore the importance I attach to the message.]

If improvements arrive rapidly we'll all be talking about them soon enough. If it takes longer [even accounting for Elon time dilation] and proves trickier than some expect, the perception of undue optimism won't help anyone. Some mountains will be climbed to internal applause alone.

 

[Mike Smith]

'Tesla fighters' Audi e-tron, Jaguar I-PACE, face recalls over fire risk, faulty brakes

 

[StealthP3D]

In its current state, I think it will cause more annoyance than amazement.

Yeah, well Musk didn't make any statement about what you would experience if you tried it before it was released.

 

[Alphacrux]

My 6/13 Raven delivery was just pushed out exactly one week to 6/20. I have no idea if this is a positive, negative, or neutral for Tesla's Q2 orders and delivery efforts.

Update: I had a VIN assigned for the original 6/13 delivery date, but it now appears that the VIN has disappeared. I'm wondering if Tesla might have re-assigned my vehicle for East Coast delivery. Pure speculation on my part, but it makes sense. If so, it might be a good sign for increased orders (or a bad sign, of actual delivery logistics problems).

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Yeah, well Musk didn't make any statement about what you would experience if you tried it before it was released.

The other thing is that the feature is for use in a parking lot. At least the recent videos show the car going at something like 7-10mph when straight, about the upper limit of how fast you should be going in a parking lot. I think people are looking at these videos as if that’s how fast the car is capable of moving vs. just how fast you go in a parking lot(the recent one showing an apparent bug allowing use outside a parking lot probably didn’t help there).

 

[StealthP3D]

'Tesla fighters' Audi e-tron, Jaguar I-PACE, face recalls over fire risk, faulty brakes

You know the shorts would have had a field day if the Model 3 had a single recall, even a minor one. But the Model 3 was so thoroughly vetted it hasn't needed a single recall.

But the loudest voices kept hammering away at the idea that the established players know how to make an automobile and that Tesla didn't. Turns out that making autos is an incredibly complex and difficult undertaking and Tesla has shown they are more than up to the task. I'm not saying this to be a cheerleader, I just think it's important to highlight what the naysayers got wrong. Because they sure were cocky on this point.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Most costs are fixed costs, doofus. Try learning to read a P & L statement before posting again.

The only true variable costs are raw materials, supplier costs, part of outsourced transportation costs, and part of wages. Even most of those have economies of scale due to bulk discounts.

Within COGS less than half of the costs are fixed but not much less, given that employee benefits probably cost about as much as employee wages.

You're way off. Model 3 fixed depreciation is ~2k/car, the fixed portion of labor about the same. Variable costs such as parts and materials, tooling depreciation, warranty reserve, etc. are >80% of Model 3 COGS and nearing 90%. Supplier costs are the biggest chunk, that's why AP is 3.25b.

 

[EinSV]

In two quarterly conference calls last year Elon brought out the Autonomy leadership at the beginning of the call to let the “cat out of the bag” on the FSD computer and discuss future plans,the chip and neural nets.

This has been an obvious direction and major priority of the company for years. Autonomy Day was a natural step to take with the FSD computer being installed in all new cars and FSD features set to begin rolling out this year.

FSD is clearly a cornerstone of Tesla’s future. It would be bizarre if Tesla did not discuss it at the shareholder meeting, which is the one time of the year where Elon and management can focus on their vision for the overall future of the company. The relatively recent Autonomy event may reduce the need to discuss details at this meeting but IMO anyone who expects Tesla to stop emphasizing FSD is in for disappointment since Tesla has been highlighting the importance of FSD to the company’s future for years.

The market (bizarrely IMO) discounts the value of Tesla’s mobility program, while every other car company scrambles to put together much less impressive efforts. If Elon only followed what the market thought would work, he never would have started an electric car company. Not sure why people think he should or would act differently now.

 

[neroden]

We may yet end up with a Model 3 recall... over yellowing touchscreens. Not a big deal compared to the Audi and Jaguar recalls!

 

[mickificki]

Yeah, well Musk didn't make any statement about what you would experience if you tried it before it was released.

 

[Pezpunk]

I say it's the baby steps that the cars have to take before they will eventually take over the world and enslave us for batteries, Matrix-style.

( wayyyy OT )

which of course made no sense ... humans are an utterly nonsensical solution for energy storage. a better-written movie would have had our brains hijacked for distributed computing (with a small percentage dedicated to the Matrix itself, perhaps necessary to fool the brain into thinking it was alive and active), but even then there'd be no reason not to amputate the arms and legs and any other body parts that just consume resources and dont benefit the overall system.

 

[Nocturnal]

The other thing is that the feature is for use in a parking lot. At least the recent videos show the car going at something like 7-10mph when straight, about the upper limit of how fast you should be going in a parking lot. I think people are looking at these videos as if that’s how fast the car is capable of moving vs. just how fast you go in a parking lot(the recent one showing an apparent bug allowing use outside a parking lot probably didn’t help there).

Yeah, I had this argument last week. Just because many people drive recklessly in parking lots full of pedestrians, kids, and cars backing out of spaces, doesn't mean that a car going 5mph is a bad thing.

1/3 of pedestrian deaths are just from cars backing out of spaces. I'm sure even more are from parking lots in general.

 

[ZachF]

Finally broke through the $215 resistance

There was very little resistance from $240 to $180 on the way down, we'll see if that holds on the way up.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

We may yet end up with a Model 3 recall... over yellowing touchscreens. Not a big deal compared to the Audi and Jaguar recalls!

I don’t think it’s known yet whether the Model 3 screens will yellow. Hard to say anything definitive about it because even Tesla seems to not know what’s going on with the screens(that, or they’re intentionally misleading customers).

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Ok so I guess it's time to get back in for a while, see how things go. 150 shares at 215, hope it keeps rising as we move towards Q2 earnings. Will consider my options before Q2 earnings day.

I got out at 253 the day before Q1 earnings and it's been way more than 30 days since then so I've been able to book my entire loss from that and now we'll see what kind of gains I can book this year.

Elon, please halp

 

[BioSehnsucht]

The other thing is that the feature is for use in a parking lot. At least the recent videos show the car going at something like 7-10mph when straight, about the upper limit of how fast you should be going in a parking lot. I think people are looking at these videos as if that’s how fast the car is capable of moving vs. just how fast you go in a parking lot(the recent one showing an apparent bug allowing use outside a parking lot probably didn’t help there).

I doubt that preventing use outside of parking lots is really feasible. Geolocking it would require a ton of work to identify all parking lots (and constantly update it), trying to use a NN may be problematic on it's own (and people will be annoyed if it randomly decides it can't be used), you should be able to use it on private property as well (which might mean usage on what looks like roads)...

I suspect they'll specify it should only be used for X, but not actually try too hard to lock it out elsewhere.

 

[GBleck]

Any reason for the bounce this morning? No Mexico tariffs, macro or risk off signs for Tesla?

The Friday dip was likely Max Pain based. Today looks like it's just following back the trend line if the Friday dip didn't exist?

 

[BioSehnsucht]

They should be pulling parts off the side of a beer truck for flow area reasons. This arrangement let’s the parts flow off the driver’s/traffic side. Which probably helps eliminate theft.

Material flow rate should be at least 40/8 or 5 times faster off the side, but eliminating congestion I will would say 10x. Also a stationary robot can pull straight off the side.

I doubt there's much room for side unloading of trucks, with the spacing of those doors ... I expect they'll be unloading out the back like normal. Also, what theft are you expecting?