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India’s middle class is 300 million people. Not all Tesla level middle class, but I work with Indians in Delhi who are bmw owners who spend hours in traffic. Delhi and Hyderabad could support significant sales. Norway size sales in India is a minor share of market. That seems easy enough, just navigating import restrictions is the greatest challenge.

I wrote this earlier. There might be a decent market for Model 3 in major metros - I've to check to see the likely market size.

Its not unusual to send parts (Completely Knocked-Down or CKD kits) to be assembled in another country. BMW and others do it in India.

2018 BMW X3 assembly commences in India

Knock-down kit - Wikipedia

ps : BMW sold 2,800 vehicles in Q1 '19. So, Tesla can open a 10k assembly unit and sell 3 & Y for about $50k. About what Tesla sells in France.
 
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This is definitely true. Especially when it comes to car unit sales.

I remember someone on here acting like the Model Y would have a global demand of 1.5 million units a year like it was nothing. Except no car sells that many units a year... let alone in that price range.

True, no single model sells 1.5 million. Only 16 brands sold more that 1.5 million unit in 2018. If you can pull buyers from several brands, and also from several car types (sedan, compact suv, and mini-van) with a boost for being pure electric, you might hit 1.5 million with one model worldwide. Possible, but definitely not nothing.
2018-Top-Selling-car-Brands-and-Models-Global-2018-750x518.jpg
 
Advertising would allow Tesla to increase ASP without raising prices.

And added income would far outpace small advertising budget.

Elon has a goal to be less stupid over time. I wish he would get less stupid with regards to advertising over time.

Still, Tesla is the least stupid of the automakers. By a wide margin.
Yes. Advertising the expensive trims would almost certainly cause more sales of said trims. The first 10 million of targeted ads would probably have a 10x payback. Then it diminishes from there.
 
It was the first time he talked about cash flow +, from this point forward vs GAAP+
I'm actually not sure exactly what he meant when he talked about not being profitable, as he didn't mention the timing. His wording was a little vague for me and I think there are at least 3 interpretations:
1) He was just reiterating that the current quarter would not be profitable, but would be cash flow positive.
2) He could have been talking about Q3, Q4, and other individual quarters for the near future, but he didn't actually say that.
3) He might have meant the year as a whole would not be profitable (while being cash flow positive) if Q3 and Q4 profits will be lower than Q1 and Q2 losses.

Number 3 came across to me as the most likely interpretation from his wording at the time, as he mentioned profitability in the context of annual growth rate, although number 2 was certainly possible.
 
Just ran into this again:
Tesla's going to have to restructure, says Blaine Capital

CNBC lets short say "Model 3s can't go through a car wash, blow up all the time"

You borrow a stock, sell it, then go on TV to tell absolute lies about it to drive it down.

Seriously, how is this legal?

Where is the SEC protecting shareholders?
How does short and then lie create a fair market?
Doesn't CNBC have an FCC responsibility to not be a platform for blatant stock manipulation?

Sure, there are plenty of fair things you can say about Tesla showing it is a risky bet in some aspects...

But this sort of total outright lying... where is the SEC???
 
At Tesla annual meeting, Elon Musk softens claims of a robotaxi fleet next year
At Tesla annual meeting, Elon Musk softens claims of a robotaxi fleet next year

It seems to me that Elon’s position has not changed.

His remarked at Autonomy Day were widely misinterpreted to mean that he would somehow manufacture one million new vehicles in 18 months to be used for robotaxis. Anyone have a transcript with his exact quotes?

I see that there is was piece published by Teslarati about the same event in April, characterizing the remarks exactly as he said them yesterday at the stockholders meeting:
Tesla Network's Robotaxis can usher in a $500 billion market cap, says Elon Musk
Excerpt from above: “Elon Musk further noted that by next year, Tesla would have 1 million vehicles on the road that could potentially take part in its Robotaxi fleet.”

I will be happy to post a comment to today’s Russ Mitchell LAT article. Can anyone help with how to word such, including perhaps quotes from Autonomy Day? Needs to be polite, not combative.

It wasn't "misinterpreted", what Elon said was lied about with an out of context quote.

Here's what Elon said about a million vehicles on the Autonomy Investor Day, verbatim:

"we still have the data gathering ability and then by a year from now we'll have over a million cars with full self-driving computer hardware"

"by the middle of next year we'll have over a million Tesla cars on the road with full self-driving Hardware feature complete at a reliably level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention meaning you could go to sleep in your from our standpoint if you fast for a year should look maybe a year maybe a year in three months but next year for sure we will have over a million Robo taxis on the road"​

Which is true and has not changed: in 2020 there will be over a million AP HW 2 and later vehicles on the road.

He misspoke the "million robo taxis on the road", it was clear from the context right before it that he meant 1 million FSD-capable cars on the road.

An hour after the talk the TSLAQ terrorists were already test-running their false narrative that Elon promised a million robotaxis, supported by the out of context quote that left out the FSD-capable bit. He didn't say that and he's not backpedaling.
 
Not much SEC can do about free speech

Of course they can, it's absolutely not legal to lie about products for profit. Slander and libel are all limitations on the First Amendment.

Furthermore CNBC is supposedly running a business TV channel, so they don't even have the "Fox defense" that it's legal for them to lie because it's "entertainment".
 
Friend from B-school that I pushed over the fence on getting a Tesla receives his SR+ tomorrow. He ordered on May 29th. Just over the 2 week estimate on the website. Not bad.

Of course they can, it's absolutely not legal to lie about products for profit. Slander and libel are all limitations on the First Amendment.

Furthermore CNBC is supposedly running a business TV channel, so they don't even have the "Fox defense" that it's legal for them to lie because it's "entertainment".
I have to assume that there are additional rules for those actively working in the investment community.
 
Yes. Advertising the expensive trims would almost certainly cause more sales of said trims. The first 10 million of targeted ads would probably have a 10x payback. Then it diminishes from there.
I think they can just target 1 Million clicks per month @ $1/click. Anyway, they can always pull back if they don't see results. It would be easy to track the returns (unlike tv or print ads).
 
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That's simply not true. It's almost exactly what he said a year ago at the Q2 report and last year's AGM.

Yes then he
GAAP+ makes little difference. Its not like Tesla will start paying dividends. Tesla just needs to be cashflow +ve.

Bears/Shorts think Tesla will go bankrupt. There is nothing to talk regarding their "concerns". Afterall they would like Tesla to go bankrupt - it is their hope, not a "concern".

I'm not concerned about gaap+. It's about the messaging. Guide for cash flow + and say we will try to break even or not be profitable due to massive investment for growth is FINE. But don't give investors mix signals, promise one thing and then change later. It gives too much ammo for the shorts. If your aspirations were to goes balls to the walls on growth, then do so. Now it seems as if you wanted to be GAAP+ but now find out it's too hard. That just tell shorts o"this company will never be profitable...see how Elon tried his best and still can't do ?".
 
At Tesla annual meeting, Elon Musk softens claims of a robotaxi fleet next year
At Tesla annual meeting, Elon Musk softens claims of a robotaxi fleet next year

It seems to me that Elon’s position has not changed.

His remarked at Autonomy Day were widely misinterpreted to mean that he would somehow manufacture one million new vehicles in 18 months to be used for robotaxis. Anyone have a transcript with his exact quotes?

I see that there is was piece published by Teslarati about the same event in April, characterizing the remarks exactly as he said them yesterday at the stockholders meeting:
Tesla Network's Robotaxis can usher in a $500 billion market cap, says Elon Musk
Excerpt from above: “Elon Musk further noted that by next year, Tesla would have 1 million vehicles on the road that could potentially take part in its Robotaxi fleet.”

I will be happy to post a comment to today’s Russ Mitchell LAT article. Can anyone help with how to word such, including perhaps quotes from Autonomy Day? Needs to be polite, not combative.

I got impatient, went ahead and posted this comment to Russ Mitchell’s LATimes article:
—————-
Russ, I see no “softening” or “walkback” of Tesla’s robotaxi projections, and I just re-watched both the April 22 Autonoimy day video and the Shareholders meeting from yesterday.

In both instances, the point was made that there will be 1 million Tesla vehicles on the road capable of full-self driving for use as a robotaxi by the end of next year. In neither case did he say that all of the owners of these cars would elect to join a robotaxi fleet, or that regulatory approval would be achieved next year except in maybe a few locations.

I understand that many news outlets have misinterpreted Musk’s statements at the Autonomy day event to mean that there will be 1 million operating Tesla robotaxis next year. It makes good news headlines, but in fact that is not what he said then, and not what he said yesterday.

Excerpts:

Autonomy day video at 3:00 - Musk points out that all Teslas manufactured after October 2016 have the capability for FSD including redundancy in all systems, that the only piece that needs to be updated is the FSD computer itself which can be swapped easily.

Autonomy day video art 3:13 - Musk shows a graphic of total number of Teslas on the road that have been manufactured since Oct 2016, projecting 1 million vehicles by sometime next year.

ALSO note that there was piece published from Teslarati shortly after the Autonomy Day event that DID characterize the remarks accurately:

Tesla Network's Robotaxis can usher in a $500 billion market cap, says Elon Musk
“Elon Musk further noted that by next year, Tesla would have 1 million vehicles on the road that could potentially take part in its Robotaxi fleet.”
———-
 
All this back seat analysis, questioning, and second guessing is interesting but I am a simple man and I like small words so here's my take on the investor's meeting.

I'm long...like 5 years or more long, so....

Make cars...
Sell cars...
Innovate...
Motivate...
Keep getting closer to autonomy...
Keep getting closer to solar roof mass release.

Everything else...meh.

If your short, or day trading, or trying to time the market, or playing other games, sorry I just don't really have much sympathy or patience, but I realize that's just my focus. Your mileage may vary.

Dan
 
I got that sense too. IMO, a cell production problem isn't all bad. If Tesla wins up being cell limited, then competitors will likely face the same hurdles. We are past the idea that EVs may not be here for good aren't we?

Seems that Tesla are limited to around 1000 vehicles per day, other manufacturers are 100 per week right now...
 
I'm not concerned about gaap+. It's about the messaging. Guide for cash flow + and say we will try to break even or not be profitable due to massive investment for growth is FINE. But don't give investors mix signals, promise one thing and then change later. It gives too much ammo for the shorts. If your aspirations were to goes balls to the walls on growth, then do so. Now it seems as if you wanted to be GAAP+ but now find out it's too hard. That just tell shorts o"this company will never be profitable...see how Elon tried his best and still can't do ?".

Sure - EM says all kinds of things all the time. As has been reported many times here ;)

But the point stands, GAAP+ for a company growing 50%+ a year is not something we should worry about.

I should say the market does NOT care about GAAP+. It cares about cash flow (and non-GAAP).
 
Somehow many otherwise intelligent people fail to understand the (r)evolution of marketing communication that has come to be dominant in many amrkets today.

First, 'advertising' as John Wanamaker so famously said "...is half wasted. The problem is that I don't know which half". Even the more carefully targeting produces exceedingly expensive 'cost per reach', with much higher 'cost per sale'.
Second, as various internet solutions have become more and more advanced the cost per reach has become very high regardless of the specific technique being used.
Third, in many geographical markets Tesla seems to be either the highest frequency automotive search or quite close. That suggests quite strongly that awareness is exceedingly high among probable interested customers and investors. Obviously that comment is an inference made with inadequate data to support it directly, but...
Fourth, the actual sales results pretty much everywhere Tesla is available suggest that the existing techniques are quite effective and are also scalable.

Finally poorly informed investors, many owners and lots of TMC enthusiasts all share the idea that broad scale advertising would provide direct benefits, as it would indeed. It would increase cost of sales and have minimal other results because there is zero chance they could spend enough money to yield any material benefits.

Sadly, perhaps, I did my PhD in that silly topic, marketing. Even back in the dark ages when I did it (1973) there was no better technique than carefully cultivated 'Word of Mouth' to achieve excellent results. Tesla reaches many new customers in critically important demographics because of (in)judicious Twitter use and nurtured other social media, all with close to zero marginal cost. As with all such efforts, the very activities themselves alienate some other valuable classes, but most of those tend not to be large consumers of the same media.

If you doubt anything I have said I suggest reflecting on a handful of political campaigns (e.g. Trump, Brexit, The Ukraine Presidential election of Volodymyr Zelensky. All of those were huge surprises because all of them reached potential voters that their opponents and pundits missed. Tesla may the the only major automobile or energy company to actually know what they're doing.

There are many things Tesla should be doing better, especially customer support. They should understand better how to handle delivery and customer support. As for marketing and/or advertising they're pretty close to optimal except for surmounting political and legal opposition from fossils. That, sadly, will not fade for a very long time.
But this time is different.

Seriously the ads dollars are bribe to Media thugs so they stop bashing Tesla with their made-up stories.
 
Just ran into this again:
Tesla's going to have to restructure, says Blaine Capital

CNBC lets short say "Model 3s can't go through a car wash, blow up all the time"

You borrow a stock, sell it, then go on TV to tell absolute lies about it to drive it down.

Seriously, how is this legal?

Where is the SEC protecting shareholders?
How does short and then lie create a fair market?
Doesn't CNBC have an FCC responsibility to not be a platform for blatant stock manipulation?

Sure, there are plenty of fair things you can say about Tesla showing it is a risky bet in some aspects...

But this sort of total outright lying... where is the SEC???
Read the first post on Elon Musk vs. Short sellers
Eye opening