Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

The level of whining and excuses from the hardcore ICE crowd is insane. I've heard many times that it doesn't matter if an EV is fast, because it's just an RC car or golf cart. Those idiots forget that the point of performance cars is speed, not how they are powered

Some of them love their slow, goofy put-put cars. Nostalgia is powerful.

 

[Hock1]

Not so much that. A's share gets loaned to B, who sells it to C. But now C's share can get loaned to D, who sells it to E.

But now think about what happens when B wants to cover...

Then, of course, there are the shares that are naked shorted by "market makers" (i.e., brokers and hedge funds with "sponsored access") under the Madoff exemption. Some are covered by T+2, some are not.

 

[Nocturnal]

Point of performance is not just speed or how the car is powered. I don’t know if speed was the only thing that those “idiots” mentioned. All car enthusiasts know speed, motor, brakes, suspension, weight, and much more are all equal factors of a cars performance measurement.

Given that, if I had the means, I’d take a McLaren over my PDL any day.

You are giving them way too much credit. I simplified by using the word speed as a stand in for overall performance. These aren't guys with high end Ferraris ignoring better 1/4 times, but guys in objectively crappier cars (by all measures). Slower, worse handling, etc. etc. I also had one pull the classic "oh yeah, well I could buy (some old Porsche) for 40k and put 20k in mods in it and it would be far faster.

On a more equal comparison, if a guy is driving an M3 and prefers that track-ability to a P3D sure, I get it. But he is a moron if he says things like "RC car, golf cart etc.".

 

[SO16]

Given that, if I had the means, I’d take a McLaren over my PDL any day.

I would take the McLaren too and then sell it for a new Roadster 2 and put the rest in TSLA.

 

[ggr]

It was the first time he talked about cash flow +, from this point forward vs GAAP+

That's simply not true. It's almost exactly what he said a year ago at the Q2 report and last year's AGM.

 

[Tslynk67]

T minus 54 minutes:

Obligatory go-to link for space nerds:

SpaceX Time Machine​

Only 13 minutes wide launch window for a polar mapping orbit - any delay beyond that means a scrub.

I'm using the NextSpaceFlight app recommended by @winfield100

 

[MP3Mike]

In that latter scenario, consider what happens if A recalls all their shares.

Nothing special, B just has to buy a bunch of shares on the open market. (Or find someone else to borrow them from.)

 

[KSilver2000]

I would take the McLaren too and then sell it for a new Roadster 2 and put the rest in TSLA.

Do you even know how much some of the new McLarens cost? Pretty much the same as to what the Roadster 2 will cost, including the Founders Roadster 2. Now, if TSLA went to $10, maybe you might have some leftover to buy a couple shares depending on how you spec each one.

I know people here talk about the FUD, but it goes both ways. People on both sides need to do some basic research at times.

 

[Boomer19]

Then, of course, there are the shares that are naked shorted by "market makers" (i.e., brokers and hedge funds with "sponsored access") under the Madoff exemption. Some are covered by T+2, some are not.

yes i guess you can call some intraday sales ‘naked’ sells technically
but any net short inter-day has to have a borrow to cover it.

technically, the broker must be able to prove it hasn’t a reasonable expectation to locate shares to borrow to cover that sell. but this is kinda like, ok, whatever. you’d have to have a min audit, and a finding, and get regulatory fine to actually do anything about it.

 

[VValleyEV]

At Tesla annual meeting, Elon Musk softens claims of a robotaxi fleet next year
At Tesla annual meeting, Elon Musk softens claims of a robotaxi fleet next year

It seems to me that Elon’s position has not changed.

His remarked at Autonomy Day were widely misinterpreted to mean that he would somehow manufacture one million new vehicles in 18 months to be used for robotaxis. Anyone have a transcript with his exact quotes?

I see that there is was piece published by Teslarati about the same event in April, characterizing the remarks exactly as he said them yesterday at the stockholders meeting:
Tesla Network's Robotaxis can usher in a $500 billion market cap, says Elon Musk
Excerpt from above: “Elon Musk further noted that by next year, Tesla would have 1 million vehicles on the road that could potentially take part in its Robotaxi fleet.”

I will be happy to post a comment to today’s Russ Mitchell LAT article. Can anyone help with how to word such, including perhaps quotes from Autonomy Day? Needs to be polite, not combative.

 

[jbcarioca]

Advertising would allow Tesla to increase ASP without raising prices.

And added income would far outpace small advertising budget.

Elon has a goal to be less stupid over time. I wish he would get less stupid with regards to advertising over time.

Still, Tesla is the least stupid of the automakers. By a wide margin.

Somehow many otherwise intelligent people fail to understand the (r)evolution of marketing communication that has come to be dominant in many amrkets today.

First, 'advertising' as John Wanamaker so famously said "...is half wasted. The problem is that I don't know which half". Even the more carefully targeting produces exceedingly expensive 'cost per reach', with much higher 'cost per sale'.
Second, as various internet solutions have become more and more advanced the cost per reach has become very high regardless of the specific technique being used.
Third, in many geographical markets Tesla seems to be either the highest frequency automotive search or quite close. That suggests quite strongly that awareness is exceedingly high among probable interested customers and investors. Obviously that comment is an inference made with inadequate data to support it directly, but...
Fourth, the actual sales results pretty much everywhere Tesla is available suggest that the existing techniques are quite effective and are also scalable.

Finally poorly informed investors, many owners and lots of TMC enthusiasts all share the idea that broad scale advertising would provide direct benefits, as it would indeed. It would increase cost of sales and have minimal other results because there is zero chance they could spend enough money to yield any material benefits.

Sadly, perhaps, I did my PhD in that silly topic, marketing. Even back in the dark ages when I did it (1973) there was no better technique than carefully cultivated 'Word of Mouth' to achieve excellent results. Tesla reaches many new customers in critically important demographics because of (in)judicious Twitter use and nurtured other social media, all with close to zero marginal cost. As with all such efforts, the very activities themselves alienate some other valuable classes, but most of those tend not to be large consumers of the same media.

If you doubt anything I have said I suggest reflecting on a handful of political campaigns (e.g. Trump, Brexit, The Ukraine Presidential election of Volodymyr Zelensky. All of those were huge surprises because all of them reached potential voters that their opponents and pundits missed. Tesla may the the only major automobile or energy company to actually know what they're doing.

There are many things Tesla should be doing better, especially customer support. They should understand better how to handle delivery and customer support. As for marketing and/or advertising they're pretty close to optimal except for surmounting political and legal opposition from fossils. That, sadly, will not fade for a very long time.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

I know people here talk about the FUD, but it goes both ways. People on both sides need to do some basic research at times.

This is definitely true. Especially when it comes to car unit sales.

I remember someone on here acting like the Model Y would have a global demand of 1.5 million units a year like it was nothing. Except no car sells that many units a year... let alone in that price range.

 

[dc_h]

India is not going to be a large opportunity. Incomes are still quite low and import taxes are punitive for foreign built cars. Also having experienced traffic there I would not want to drive a nice car. Lanes and traffic rules are optional. 2 lane streets have traffic packed 5 lanes wide mixed with 2 wheelers trying to sneak through every free space. Autopilot is useless in that environment. Lots of people drive very small, cheap Indian made cars that lack even airbags. I’d imagine cheap low range EV equivalents of those or EV bikes are the opportunities in India. Both are way below the price point Tesla plays at.

India’s middle class is 300 million people. Not all Tesla level middle class, but I work with Indians in Delhi who are bmw owners who spend hours in traffic. Delhi and Hyderabad could support significant sales. Norway size sales in India is a minor share of market. That seems easy enough, just navigating import restrictions is the greatest challenge.

 

[Dutchie]

Scott is not happy with Tesla, starts 9min in:

This video is a keeper. Like to play it again in two years. Will be the same as the video of Steve Balmer's comments when I-Phone came out

I would take the McLaren too and then sell it for a new Roadster 2 and put the rest in TSLA.

Funny, I was just talking to my wife the other day asking what car you would like to trade for your Model X for.To be honest, even if you give me a McLaren, Bugatti or Bentley (and I wasn't allowed to sell these cars right away) I still wouldn't want to trade my MX with one of these cars.

 

[SO16]

Do you even know how much some of the new McLarens cost? Pretty much the same as to what the Roadster 2 will cost, including the Founders Roadster 2. Now, if TSLA went to $10, maybe you might have some leftover to buy a couple shares depending on how you spec each one.

I know people here talk about the FUD, but it goes both ways. People on both sides need to do some basic research at times.

McLaren 720 S appears to be 350k.

 

[EVNow]

Nope, not all positive. The meeting had Elon shared some concerns about the future of cell production and ability to be GAAP+. The bears are transitioning from demand problem to scalability problem/profit problem. I wrote about these concerns. But was buried under the celebration you guys had yesterday.

GAAP+ makes little difference. Its not like Tesla will start paying dividends. Tesla just needs to be cashflow +ve.

Bears/Shorts think Tesla will go bankrupt. There is nothing to talk regarding their "concerns". Afterall they would like Tesla to go bankrupt - it is their hope, not a "concern".

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Put me in the "in favor of some informative type advertisements" column.

Every single person I talk to about my Tesla (and yes, I'm pretty freaking bold about finding a way to tell people about Tesla) says the same exact thing to me - "yea, but where do you charge when you go out of town"?

Just that one piece of information would be HUGE for Tesla's market. In Cali, sure, everyone knows Tesla and almost everything about it. But, in the Southeast, and most of Florida and Texas (and several other states surrounding the SE), there is a HUGE market of potential buyers that know NOTHING about Tesla. I still get this quite often - "Tesla? Who makes it?"

My wife works with surgeons on Hilton Head Island, SC. Now, I don't know about you, but I tend to think surgeons are some intelligent folk. And, they ought to be able to afford a Tesla, right? Well, my wife is constantly educating these people on Tesla. It is totally shocking that they know essentially NOTHING about Tesla. Most ask her where she has to stop on the way to work to charge and how long it takes (it's a 35 mile drive for her). They all ask the "where will I charge on trips" question. And they all believe the fire and AP wrecks FUD (and most of the other stuff too). And none have a clue about just how fast a Tesla is. One doctor is a big Porsche guy - and had the gall to tell her he couldn't drive a golf cart after owning a Porsche. My wife showed him all the 0-60mph times, as well as the 1/8th and quarter times. He was shocked and said, I never had a clue." Well, of course not!!

A simple commercial detailing the basics about the range, charging in your garage, the supercharger map, a blip about the performance, etc - and ending with a picture of the Model 3, and then lastly under the car - "Starting at $35,400 www.tesla.com".

That would go a long way to dispel some of the FUD.

 

[Driver Dave]

McLaren 720 S appears to be 350k.

I can't imagine paying that much for a car that needs a gas engine.

350...without the k... maybe.

 

[powertoold]

Tesla puts up ad about their cars.

Shorts: see there's a demand problem! Doesn't matter if you buy the car, they're going bankrupt anyway!

Headlines: in background of demand problem, Tesla starts buying ads

 

[Mike Smith]

Apparently Musk is being interviewed at E3 tomorrow.

E3 on Twitter