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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Don’t forget that Model 3 RHD production is highly likely to ramp up in July for the new markets opened up for ordering last month. Deliveries in these markets is currently advertised by Tesla as July/August, so presumably they will need to start producing and shipping these models in June.
Australia in particular is going to be a huge market for Tesla, especially S. Australia. No worries there mate!
 
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Anyone care to suggest who some more “reasonable bears” might be? I started with Aswath Damodaran - who is a professor and investor who uses discounted cashflow models to value companies and decide his investment strategy.

Aswath Damodaran -- who as you point out is a longtime TSLA bear -- recently became a TSLA shareholder. Only goes to show how beaten down the share price is. Aswath Damodaran on Twitter

I doubt he sticks around as a shareholder for very long since he still seems skeptical about the company, plus his valuation is low ($180/share) based in part on ridiculously pessimistic estimated growth rates. But it's an interesting development ....
 
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I flew to the East Coast for a few days to visit my parents and to attend a wedding. While here I'm borrowing my mother's 3 series BMW to run errands and go about my business.

It is so hard to realize how much an ICE sucks until you've gotten used to driving an EV.

I HATE how there's a delay from when I step on the accelerator to when the car starts moving.

I HATE how jerky and uneven the acceleration feels due to gear shifting.

I HATE how totally uncontrolled and dangerous it feels to keep coasting at high speed when I take my foot off the accelerator, having to rely on friction braking to moderate my speed. I just feels like an antiquated and unreliable mechanism to me at this point.

I HATE how noisy the cabin is due to the engine.

I HATE how clunky and stupid it feels to have to switch off the ignition after I've parked.

I miss my Model 3. It is simply a hands-down, obviously superior product. I have to remind myself of that every time the TSLA price action gets me stressed. The public will come around. You can only suppress the truth for so long while there are hundreds of thousands of cars out there in the real world showing people a better way.

I just told someone that a six-year-old Model S was better than any brand new gasoline car. And I really do believe that that is clearly true.
 
"Feature complete" just means that they have coded every feature that was in the specification. It doesn't mean that every feature works properly or is bug free.
Which is pretty bad.

Examples of features:
  • Recognize lane lines
  • Make a unprotected left turn
  • Recognize stop sign
  • Recognize traffic signals and their current state
  • Stop at yellow/red lights
  • Stop at stop signs
  • etc...
It, also, doesn't mean that every feature you end up needing has been coded. (For example if you didn't think it was needed, or didn't even known what it was yet, and didn't put it in the spec.)

That's the most important point. There's going to be tons and tons of stuff which is necessary for full self-driving but isn't in the spec. Their specification is *woefully* incomplete, as is everyone's. The specification is the hard part of self-driving, and it will take many many many many iterations to get it right. So "feature complete" is worthless -- it just means they haven't been working hard enough on figuring out what additional features they need.

I hope they don't claim to be feature complete any time soon, and I hope their target date for "feature complete" moves further into the future quickly, because that would indicate that they are making fast progress on figuring out the additional features they need. Right now I see extremely slow progress at figuring out what features they need.
 
No, you can't make this up either:

COWSPIRACY: The Sustainability Secret

Well, it actually WAS made up.

It's been fully debunked. Most of it is just flat out false.

Here in reality, transportation generates far more global warming / ocean acidification than the difference between animal agriculture and plant agriculture. (A huge portion of agriculture carbon emissions are, of course, from using fossil-fuel powered vehicles, like tractors, which are used heavily in vegetable agriculture.)

(There is one thing which is true: eating animals which are fed grain which humans could have eaten is wasteful. Eating animals which eat plants which humans can't eat is the more traditional and sustainable form of animal agriculture.)
 
Rimac does not use wheel motors, they have 4 inboard motors, each with it's own gear reduction, with shafts going to the wheels, so suspension is no more complicated than what Tesla is currently using.
Rimac's system is essentially what's been standard on electric multiple unit trains for decades. I've actually wondered why Tesla didn't do it to start with.

I have been assuming that it's a cost issue of some sort.
 
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OT

This makes me sad. My 2013 P85 has 120k miles and I still get more comments and thumbs up than our M3 by far. Every week almost for the P85 and maybe 10 times in over a year for the M3. I thought briefly about trading it in on a PM3 but Tesla wouldn't give me much and the M3 doesn't really excite me enough to give away a damn good looking great running car, maybe the pickup will. Sentimental but couldn't stand it being used as a service vehicle.

Well, I am about to buy a used 2013 Model S to go with the one I already had. So I'm there with you.

You know, if enough of these are converted into service vehicles, ours will genuinely become collectible classics.

The "pre-facelift, purse slot" models were only produced from 2012 through early March 2016 -- there are fewer than 200,000 of them. Pre-autopilot models like ours were only offered from 2012 through October 2014 -- there are fewer than 50,000 of them, fewer than the first generation Corvette. Many classic cars, like the Mustang, had over *500,000* produced in their "most classic year".

The first Model S was a major milestone in the history of electric cars (second only to the Roadster and perhaps the t-zero). With the population of the early-model-year Model Ses declining, at some point they'll be in demand for museums. Every one which is gutted increases the collectability of the remainder.
 
“That was aspirational. There are good reasons why multiple other well-capitalized entities failed to make Battery Electric Vehicles a cost effective solution.”

TSLA's Accumulated Deficit at 3-31-19 was $5.9+ Billion. Without the regulatory credits alone, i.e. not counting the benefit of FIT credits, the Accumulated Deficit would have been ~$8 Billion.

Many would not consider that level of losses "a cost effective solution”, but obviously here YMMV.
 
Is TroyTeslike legit?
Yeah, but his model works with the data he's got, and his data isn't that great.

I know nothing about him. He/she doesn't seem to post on this thread often. He's got Q2 at 80k deliveries. That sounds low. Anyone else have an estimate they'd like to share? The range seems to be 80k-93k. But that's a big range.
 
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OT



Well, I am about to buy a used 2013 Model S to go with the one I already had. So I'm there with you.

You know, if enough of these are converted into service vehicles, ours will genuinely become collectible classics.

The "pre-facelift, purse slot" models were only produced from 2012 through early March 2016 -- there are fewer than 200,000 of them. Pre-autopilot models like ours were only offered from 2012 through October 2014 -- there are fewer than 50,000 of them, fewer than the first generation Corvette. Many classic cars, like the Mustang, had over *500,000* produced in their "most classic year".

The first Model S was a major milestone in the history of electric cars (second only to the Roadster and perhaps the t-zero). With the population of the early-model-year Model Ses declining, at some point they'll be in demand for museums. Every one which is gutted increases the collectability of the remainder.
200,000 is not a small number. These cars won’t have collector status for a decade or more. The original roadster on the other hand is quite rare. Nobody is going to value a pre autopilot car as more valuable because they look nearly identical to auto pilot cars. I do expect the cars to not drop below $20k for the most part unless something horrible starts happening to the batteries. If Tesla ever offers a replacement 100kwh pack for older cars at a price of $15k or less, the older cars will increase in value. Same if a third party does.
 
Battery-grade nickel sulfate isn't made from metallurgical nickel; it'd be far too expensive to produce the metal, purify it, and then convert it to battery-grade sulfate.
Really? I mean, economics of industrial chemistry is quite complicated, but it seems utterly trivial. If the price goes high enough what's the problem? With a moment's Googling, I promptly found some lab articles about synthesizing nickel sulfide from nickel to get *really* high grade nickel sulfide.

In fact, it appears from what I can find that processing of the (apparently fairly common -- 40% of all primary nickel deposits, and 58% of world nickel production) nickel sufide ores first separates out the nickel sulfides, and then converts them to elemental nickel.

They could just, well, stop doing that. If battery nickel sulfide prices exceed the prices of metallurgical nickel by enough to cover the difference between the nickel sulfide purification costs and the costs of converting nickel sulfide into metallurgical nickel, they will stop.

The primary problem with producing nickel sulfides appears to be iron removal, which is a pain.

But in the short term of a few years it seems like just redirecting existing nickel sulfide streams away from making elemental nickel would do the trick.

It's made directly from nickel sulfide ore deposits, which are fairly rare, and usually with significant overburden.
Are they particularly pure or something? Lacking in cobalt sulfide and copper sulfide and iron sulfide and similar expected contaminants?
 
Well, it actually WAS made up.

It's been fully debunked. Most of it is just flat out false.

Here in reality, transportation generates far more global warming / ocean acidification than the difference between animal agriculture and plant agriculture. (A huge portion of agriculture carbon emissions are, of course, from using fossil-fuel powered vehicles, like tractors, which are used heavily in vegetable agriculture.)

(There is one thing which is true: eating animals which are fed grain which humans could have eaten is wasteful. Eating animals which eat plants which humans can't eat is the more traditional and sustainable form of animal agriculture.)
Have you watched "Ice On Fire" on HBO yet? There is a type of plankton (?) that is being grown in underwater farms that reduces the methane output of animals by 90%. Definitely recommend. Scary but also hopeful, if we can get the fossil fuel influence out of government worldwide. Methane is the real catalyst with so much of it being released from melting permafrost... if it's not stopped or contained quickly, the world as we know it will not be around in 50 years.
 
If I care about climate change (which I do), then I'm much more concerned that people stop consuming beef specifically. Other sources of meat (poultry, fish, etc.) tend to be not nearly as emissions intensive. You can debate the ethics of killing animals for food and clothing, but that's less relevant to climate change if those animals aren't cows.

This is just incorrect when it comes to purely grass-fed, organically raised cows.

Feeding non-organic cows unnecessary antibiotics is not only causing disease resistant superbugs, it's causing them to emit a lot more methane. And of course feeding cows on grain which humans could eat is very wasteful. But a healthy cow eating grass... is probably emitting less than the grass would if it decayed on its own.