Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggies07]

It's the final day of E3 2019 and for some reason, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is chatting on stage about "games, cars, space and everything in between" with Bethesda executive producer Todd Howard.

I like how Elon compares his crazy life to someone turning up the level difficulty.

 

[brian45011]

But that's contingent on fixed production rate which hopefully will be going up with GF3 and 7K run rate at Fremont

In 2018, Tesla delayed deliveries from Q2 until Q3 in order to maximize the availability of the full $7,500 tax credit in the second half of the year.
In 2019, the OP suggested they would pull forward deliveries from Q3 into Q2 because the final phase out of the tax credit begins on July 1.

The combination of those two ploys means year-over-year comparisons will be more difficult, particularly for the 3rd quarter 2019. TSLA has commanded high multiples (of revenue) because of the growth narrative. If growth is perceived as flattening, even if only until new facilities/products begin to show up in the financial statements, institutional holders may reduce their positions until those expectations are realized.

 

[dqd88]

Unless one is just dabbling, mining, just like Insurance, requires and ties up significant capital resources (and human talent that Tesla would have to recruit). How will that capital be acquired? Vertical integration is wonderful-- until the economy contracts. Tesla needs to focus on its core competencies.

The benefit will outweigh the cost. Many new GFs coming on line from competitors. Battery production will be increasing dramatically in the coming years. What happens if there is shortage or bidding wars over certain raw materials? Tesla needs to guarantee they have all the ingredients they need.

 

[StealthP3D]

OT :
BTW, getting back to the original point, EVs are not yet more convenient than ICE. Mainly because of charging - once high speed charging gets ubiquitous and range > 3 hours of high way driving - other things like convenience of home charging vs going to the gas station every week will kill ICE.

Huh? EV's are already more convenient than fossil cars for two primary reasons:

1) No need to schedule regular oil changes.
2) You can stop visiting gas stations.

We have two Model 3's and a Ford F-150 and neither of us wants to drive the truck because then we have to fill it up. The lower the tank gets (and it happens way too fast) the more we don't want to use it. It's overdue for an oil/filter change but neither of us wants to schedule it.

3 hours of highway driving is around 200 miles. That's more time than we generally want to spend driving unless the place we are going offers something we can't get closer to home which is unlikely. Either of our model 3's can do that like child's play.

 

[dqd88]

Believe me, this guy is totally wacko and stupid. How can you come to another conclusion after watching this video promoting Flat Earth?
He is on his way to the office, he says. Don't know where he works or what his boss might think of him posting these videos.

Yeah he's out there. Also thinks dinosaurs never existed. He works at a car dealership. fancy that

 

[MarcusMaximus]

In 2018, Tesla delayed deliveries from Q2 until Q3 in order to maximize the availability of the full $7,500 tax credit in the second half of the year.
In 2019, the OP suggested they would pull forward deliveries from Q3 into Q2 because the final phase out of the tax credit begins on July 1.

The combination of those two ploys means year-over-year comparisons will be more difficult, particularly for the 3rd quarter 2019. TSLA has commanded high multiples (of revenue) because of the growth narrative. If growth is perceived as flattening, even if only until new facilities/products begin to show up in the financial statements, institutional holders may reduce their positions until those expectations are realized.

Yes, but Panasonic has indicated that they can increase battery supply starting now-ish, which should unlock higher production rates of Model 3. If that’s the case, the increase in production could make up for any shifting of sales to H1.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Yeah he's out there. Also thinks dinosaurs never existed. He works at a car dealership. fancy that

Odd that he doesn’t think dinosaurs existed, considering he works at one.

 

[pnungesser]

There's also the option of using a computer controlled clutched differential, but not only is that way more expensive than open diff with friction brakes, the wear parts are hard to service too (since you have to take apart the diff). Using friction brakes may shorten their life, but it's much easier to swap pads than to replace clutch packs.

And unless you drive on a track most of the time, the system will never be actuated. OK minor use in icy conditions.

 

[azaz]

e3 stuff shows Tesla isn't far from beginning to realize some revenue from apps and what not

Bethesda’s Fallout Shelter and YouTube streaming are coming to Tesla cars

 

[StealthP3D]

Unless one is just dabbling, mining, just like Insurance, requires and ties up significant capital resources (and human talent that Tesla would have to recruit). How will that capital be acquired? Vertical integration is wonderful-- until the economy contracts. Tesla needs to focus on its core competencies.

I suspect Musk would not have even brought up mining had doubts not been expressed in the industry or the investment community about Tesla's ability to secure certain raw materials necessary for efficient motors or batteries (either due to limited extraction/refining capacity or even a plan by competing interests to stymie Tesla's expansion by creating a contrived shortage of key materials).

He made it clear that mining would only be done if Tesla's manufacturing expansion was threatened.

 

[RobStark]

Fla. governor signs bill allowing AVs with no human operator

 

[brian45011]

The benefit will outweigh the cost. Many new GFs coming on line from competitors. Battery production will be increasing dramatically in the coming years. What happens if there is shortage or bidding wars over certain raw materials? Tesla needs to guarantee they have all the ingredients they need.

Where do they acquire the needed capital? Are they going to buy an existing mining operator and its reserves? Who processes what Tesla extracts?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

This guy is an honest-to-god flat earther. I've used that term in jest at the shorts, but it's actually true.

(note, I don't think this guy is dumb. A bit crazy, yes. Sadly, sometimes the crazies win. Irks me that some crazy shorts are making money off Tesla. After all is said and done though they'll likely be in the red).

Idk about dumb, but he’s certainly willfully stupid. From the video, he has no idea there’s a difference between the ideas of(leaving aside their truth for the time being) gravity and centripetal motion, has no idea how bird or airplane wings work, and doesn’t seem to understand the difference between the earth rotating on its axis and orbiting around the sun.

Even if you completely leave aside any assumptions that the earth is round, or assume that it’s flat, these concepts aren’t difficult to get right or even prove on your own.

 

[Mike Smith]

Fla. governor signs bill allowing AVs with no human operator

That's fantastic. Getting approval from politicians will be the hard part. I don't see NHTSA delaying things at all - they'll view it as safe enough at the same time Tesla does just by looking at the numbers.

 

[dqd88]

Where do they acquire the needed capital? Are they going to buy an existing mining operator and its reserves? Who processes what Tesla extracts?

They just acquired $2B, which is just a rainy day fund. They have plenty of capital. Idk, probably buy a small mining operation or try to find a new mine. Maybe Boring Co can help. I know, boring and mining are two very different things, but hey they both involve digging

 

[M3Rider]

China New Energy Vehicle Maker BYD Signs Leonardo DiCaprio As Brand Ambassador

Didn't know. But I'm glad he didn't disappoint on this front.

However, the article says "The agreement runs through 2017." He might be available for Tesla.

 

[brian45011]

VHS didn't win because it was first, it won because a) their tapes were long enough for a full movie (betamax tapes were originally only 60 mins long) and b) because the players were less expensive.

So to win, be practical and affordable (in that order). Blackberry was firstest with the mostest once, where are they now?

The porn industry preferred VHS.

 

[SO16]

I will also say that Sheetz gets my business even when I'm not in the Tesla. I want to support them even when I'm just filling up the Nissan or grabbing a snack because they are working with Tesla.

Meijer is a big supporter of Tesla here in Michigan with Superchargers at quite a few of their locations. I now make a point to shop there for pretty much everything.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

The porn industry preferred VHS.

Haha - that's very true.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Meijer is a big supporter of Tesla here in Michigan with Superchargers at quite a few of their locations. I now make a point to shop there for pretty much everything.

Those shops are crazy, they literally stock everything. I stopped off in one I thin in Indiana on the way to Akron, OH at the end of my road trip last year.