Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

Carsonight often mentions Panasonic hiring fairs, ads on TV, etc. He said Tesla had a hiring freeze on for a while after the Grohman automated pack assembly machines came online. Panasonic CEO Tsuga said they only recently trained enough local hires to run an entire line (or a few lines?) without needing Japanese expats. The expats are expensive, contributing to their lack of profits from GF1. ​

That may be... but none of that supports the definitive assertion that THE REASON the battery lines are only producing at 2/3rds capacity is lack of manpower.

 

[Carl Raymond]

That may be... but none of that supports the definitive assertion that THE REASON the battery lines are only producing at 2/3rds capacity is lack of manpower.

One can imagine Tesla’s take on this. The machines spit out cells at machine gun speed. There’s no role for a human in such a process, other than start, stop, supervise, QA monitor, maintenance.

If the manpower component is high it points to lack of machine reliability. Tesla would just ask Grohmann if they could do better. The answer comes back “of course”, and the current train of events begins. ( from January Tesla started advertising for cell engineers, as spotted by Artful Dodger)

 

[SarahsDad]

Where do they acquire the needed capital? Are they going to buy an existing mining operator and its reserves? Who processes what Tesla extracts?

There's an abandoned Lithium mine here in NC that could yield up to 20 tons of lithium ore a year for as long as 20 years according to the new owners. They're planning a slow startup with production restarting in 2021 but I bet Elon could speed that up if he purchased the company... NC was once a top source of lithium. Growing demand could lead to a mine near Charlotte. About :: Piedmont Lithium Limited (PLL)

 

[Bet TSLA]

Man I couldn't wait until my 16th birthday, get my driver's license, and drive my birthday present, a 1961 Plymouth Valiant 4 door with a 170 slant six and push button automatic... a real chick magnet!

I learned to drive on a '64 Valiant manual, a wonderful car. I taught my younger daughter to drive in a Model S. I think we can call that progress.

 

[wipster]

I learned to drive on a '64 Valiant manual, a wonderful car. I taught my younger daughter to drive in a Model S. I think we can call that progress.

Indeed!

 

[Bet TSLA]

I don't know where you live but here in silicone valley (not San Francisco) it's next to impossible to survive without a car. Plain old grocery shopping becomes a hassle as buses run like once in an hour.

Sure you do. It says right over <--- there. Cupertino is standard suburban Silicon Valley. And as I said, my older son does fine without a car or any ability to drive one, and has for years. Personally, I wouldn't do so well.

You do realize that all shopping can be done online now, with delivery, right? That includes grocery shopping.

 

[dqd88]

Wall St cares about 10-20 years ? That would be news to them ...

BTW, few even on Wall St believe FSD won't be available by 2030.

Starting not in 10 years, starting near-future but extending out 10-20 years. That's the story behind all the hot companies with big multiples (Uber, Bynd, Pinterest, etc etc). If you want Tesla to be valued like an OEM then do you think the current $38B market cap is fair? Of course it is. But that's not how we value it, we value it on future potential, discounting cash flows. The vision has to be huge or else I don't see how anyone can justify a much higher market cap. The vision is huge if robotaxi is included but Wall St doesn't know how to value that.
I see batteries as a luxury. We cannot have 100MM cars sold yearly each w/ their own battery pack. That alone would probably create a new environmental disaster. How many batteries per car? 7k? times 100MM cars = 700B batteries out there? Bad. We need batteries for the premium segment. Hybrid for the mass market. Or very small battery packs and short range for tiny urban cars; ubquitious chargers to make it feasible.

 

[EVNow]

Starting not in 10 years, starting near-future but extending out 10-20 years. That's the story behind all the hot companies with big multiples (Uber, Bynd, Pinterest, etc etc). If you want Tesla to be valued like an OEM then do you think the current $38B market cap is fair? Of course it is. But that's not how we value it, we value it on future potential, discounting cash flows. The vision has to be huge or else I don't see how anyone can justify a much higher market cap. The vision is huge if robotaxi is included but Wall St doesn't know how to value that.

Well, Wall St has to be pretty dumb if they can't make out a company bringing new 4 new models in 3 years, won't keep doing that in the future ...

 

[scaesare]

One can imagine Tesla’s take on this. The machines spit out cells at machine gun speed. There’s no role for a human in such a process, other than start, stop, supervise, QA monitor, maintenance.

If the manpower component is high it points to lack of machine reliability. Tesla would just ask Grohmann if they could do better. The answer comes back “of course”, and the current train of events begins. ( from January Tesla started advertising for cell engineers, as spotted by Artful Dodger)

Tesla could well be advertising for cell engineers knowing that new infrastructure they may need to build as a result of the Maxwell acquisition will require manpower. They may even be planning on building their own cell lines in the future without Panasonic... which may leverage Grohman expertise and equipment.

But that doesn't prove that the existing below-production rates are as a direct result of the lack of a labor force. Nor have I seen that the Panasonic-architected cell lines leverage Grohman in any way.

There's a lot of circumstantial supposition here, but nothing concrete that supports @Artful Dodger 's assertion .

 

[EVNow]

Sure you do. It says right over <--- there. Cupertino is standard suburban Silicon Valley. And as I said, my older son does fine without a car or any ability to drive one, and has for years. Personally, I wouldn't do so well.

You do realize that all shopping can be done online now, with delivery, right? That includes grocery shopping.

Does your son have kids ?

I think healthy, young adults can do without cars even in suburbs - moreover they can live at walking and commute friendly places. For people with kids it is a different matter.

 

[EVNow]

My kids can't wait either, older one already set his eyes on roadster 2.0. May be in for a disappointment for his first car

My kids already think FSD will be here by the time they can drive in 10 years. They also make sure I'm on AP whenever I drive

 

[Antares Nebula]

Sorry if this is repetitive, but has Tesla discontinued their Wall Connector with NEMA 14-50 plug, which they just introduced in January? Not seeing it on their website anymore. Only offering the old hardwired option now?

It seems that both versions should be almost identical, with some kind of dip switch and removable NEMA 14-50 plug cable.

 

[dqd88]

Well, Wall St has to be pretty dumb if they can't make out a company bringing new 4 new models in 3 years, won't keep doing that in the future ...

I think those models have been talked about ad naseum and have lost some of it's luster/anticipation. Glad we don't know what the pickup looks like, keep that a mystery until the unveil. But then what, what's next? Pickup reveal is only a few months away.

 

[jerry33]

Sorry if this is repetitive, but has Tesla discontinued their Wall Connector with NEMA 14-50 plug, which they just introduced in January? Not seeing it on their website anymore. Only offering the old hardwired option now?

It's on the website. Look under charging->adapters in the "shop" section.

 

[Todd Burch]

The clip doesn’t appear to be posted online yet, but there was a 3-minute story on the NBC Nightly News tonight about another driver in a Tesla (Model 3) who tied something to his steering wheel and allegedly fell asleep on the highway for about 30 miles.

The coverage itself wasn’t anti-Tesla biased at all, and even included Tesla’s response that AP is intended to be used while paying attention. They did mention that “some motorists had seen enough”.

Probably not too relevant to the TSLA share price, but I had two thoughts watching it:

1. Wow, 30 miles? Not bad. And
2. PLEASE Tesla drivers, stop being so stupid. You idiots are making the rest of us look bad...and you’re gonna get AP handicapped even further because of your stupidity...

 

[Antares Nebula]

Tesla critics like to say that only fanboys, rich idiots, or other such "losers" like to buy a Tesla. I know someone that is an MD and a somewhat conservative Christian. He has owned Mercedes, BMWs, and Volvos. He was planning to buy a used Porsche as a weekend fun car. He wasn’t even thinking about Tesla, being under the impression that it was too expensive and esoteric, and perhaps being dissuaded by all the media FUD.

After I told him that the model 3 started at 40k, he started looking into it. I didn’t have to pressure him at all, nor did I point him to any online resources. He got on the internet himself, and within an hour became very enthused with the car. He subsequently took a test drive and was absolutely thrilled. According to him, even the base model "had everything". Within two weeks, he placed an order for an SR+ with FSD. (BTW, this is a different person than my friend in Baltimore who also ordered a model 3).

Goes to show how much FUD and mis-perception is out there, but at the same time how transparent and easily refuted the lies are. Just a little time and research, and a previously impartial or skeptical, but reasonably intelligent consumer can quickly become a Tesla fan and customer.

Like this, many others across the country and the world. And you start to see the trend. Just like the iPhone, which the critics and corporate incumbents laughed at, until one by one consumers over the world began to see the light, and the infatuation began. Make no mistake, the Tesla demand tsunami is coming…

Well this friend of mine decided to upgrade from an SR+ w/ FSD to an AWD Long Range w/FSD. Instead of a weekend car, it will be his main car, trading in his current main car, a Volvo SUV. He decided to be more practical, and now he can drive the model 3 all week instead of just the weekend. He also kinda wanted the more premium interior, with the better sound package.

Also interestingly, the sales rep told him that there is an 80% chance that it will come in by June 30 in the config they ordered: pearl white with black interior. White interior was available in inventory, but they didn't want that. Even so, him and his wife doesn't seem to be bothered. They rather have the car of their choice rather than saving approx $2k in tax incentives if they don't get it by June 30th.

This leads me to question how much of a demand drop off there will be due to the tax credit drop off. More and more average, non-Tesla folks (like my friend above) are finding out about the advantages of these great cars. I don't think they are going to let 2k or 4k of tax credit stand in their way.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Tesla could well be advertising for cell engineers knowing that new infrastructure they may need to build as a result of the Maxwell acquisition will require manpower. They may even be planning on building their own cell lines in the future without Panasonic... which may leverage Grohman expertise and equipment.

But that doesn't prove that the existing below-production rates are as a direct result of the lack of a labor force. Nor have I seen that the Panasonic-architected cell lines leverage Grohman in any way.

There's a lot of circumstantial supposition here, but nothing concrete that supports @Artful Dodger 's assertion .

Random thoughts...

What else could it be?
Materials supply? Unlikely, or the output would be more stop/start. All systems go when supplies are in.
Technical problems? Scale up delays? These can both be caused by lack of people with the right skills.

What we know is that Tesla are itching to take the drivers seat. How they do it is the question.
By adding new Maxwell DBE lines in parallel? Would that not mean more space required initially?
By converting Pana lines one at a time to DBE? How does that fit with car model specs. Can they sell DBE and non DBE cars of same model at same time? Can they be in same pack?!
By buying out Panasonic cell division? Neroden spotted that Pana restructured, as if preparing for this.
By ending the Pana contract and cold starting with Tesla cell lines. No. Far too much risk. Has to be a graceful process. Would require double space.

Looking forward to battery investor day.

 

[scaesare]

Man I couldn't wait until my 16th birthday, get my driver's license, and drive my birthday present, a 1961 Plymouth Valiant 4 door with a 170 slant six and push button automatic... a real chick magnet!

Heh, my folks had one of those (green!) that I drove as a teenager.

I put a big batman sticker in the back window when the first movie came out.

 

[scaesare]

Here's a real Tesla Solar Roof quote and the price will shock you - Electrek

As I posted the other day. Now that we have numbers from Tesla, just reinforces my point.

I thought Tesla was comparing costs to comp when they mentioned cost parity. No way comp roof would cost $37,245. My roofers could do that same size roof for ~$5,500. Plus, 9.45kW PV for much less than $30k. No idea what the heck traditional premium roof would cost $20/sq ft as Tesla wrote in that quote for comparisons sake.

Plus, a couple things to note:
1. Solar tax credit starts getting cut each year starting 2020 until it becomes NO credit in 2022. (Unless folks in DC decide to do something about it). So, Tesla needs to really put resources into this project if they’re banking on that.
2. Many (maybe not most?) people do not live in the same house for 30+ years for that net cost calculation to work out in reality.

Is your price retail, or your cost as a contractor?

Also, as has been pointed out, the comparison is roof cost + energy cost for life of roof.

 

[Antares Nebula]

It's on the website. Look under charging->adapters in the "shop" section.

Are you saying that you can buy those various Tesla adapter cables and plug and play into the standard Tesla hard-wired wall connectors?

Wasn't it previously shipping as one unified product back in January?

FYI, I know this is OT, but not finding much info about this, neither on the net or on TMC and Tesla forums. Somebody on a TMC forum elsewhere said that Tesla ran out of inventory and so removed it from their website. ?!?? What's going on with this? Anybody??