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I don't know where you live but here in silicone valley (not San Francisco) it's next to impossible to survive without a car. Plain old grocery shopping becomes a hassle as buses run like once in an hour.

Well, there’s VTA in eastern Silicon Valley. But then I’ve had a few encounters with some scary people on VTA(including one that kept punching the wall near me and yelling at me to move).
 
Rivian and ‘Free Solo’ star Alex Honnold team up to build solar microgrid with used EV batteries – TechCrunch

I wonder if those 135kW battery packs from their dev-vehicles are really second life quality already or if this is more of a proof of concept for later in a few years when they have actual production vehicles on the road. With teslas 8-year warranty on their battery packs that seems quite a bit forward looking?

Also does that mean they plan to launch their product with 135kW battery packs?

I guess if Tesla comes out with a Model F pickup truck they would go for 150kW battery pack size?

Rivian offers 3 levels of battery packs:
105kwh - 230 miles of range
135kwh - 300 miles of range
185kwh - 400 miles of range

I think they expect to sell mostly the 135kwh versions at first, which would be why they have already done accelerated testing on those. Aside from giving you 300 miles of range, they claim a 0-60 performance of 3 seconds. Also they will only be offering the two higher end models at first.

Interesting, I don’t see these numbers on their website, only the “up to 400 mile range”. Here is an article that has numbers:
The all-electric Rivian R1T is a dream truck for adventurers
 
Thank you... You missed where I stated don't bother to bolt the testecu or the shipping ecu unit in. Is there a need to assemble the dash until just before delivery?

Would it be worth 10s of millions of dollars on savings?

Because you can't drive it off the production line without bolting it down? Nor drive it onto the delivery trucks? Nor drive it onto the ro-ro boats? Nor drive it off the ro-ro boats, and back onto another set of trucks to be delivered to the delivery center? And what exactly are you going to have them do with the dash pieces if it it's not bolted in? leave them to jostle around in the backseat so that the delivery techs can search for all the little screws?

The best condition to drive a car in, is when it's fully assembled. The best time to assemble it is right on the production line (here's how it's done:

- notice that the MCU is activated half-way (~1:58 mark) through the production process). Any other time involves a significant amount of time for disassembly AND reassembly.

If you're thinking of region specific modifications like what Tilburg does with the model S/X, note that Tesla had to setup an entire factory for that, to which none currently exists for the model 3. AND all this to solve a tariff war that might be over by the time this entire swap-off/swap-on process is developed.

The tariff on the brainboards are dumb, but passing them onto the consumers is the most cost-efficient way of dealing with them for the short term.


As for the 10s of millions of savings? No it'll be less than that, because it only affects 100k cars at most for the rest of 2019. All domestic sales can't avoid the tariff.

Edited for legibility
 
I think when he says "record quarter on every level", he is talking about p&d numbers. Q4 revenue is difficult to beat unless s+x deliveries reach 25k.

Also looking at the " if not it's gonna be very close," - I think the likely scenario is for deliveries to be a few thousand below 91k. So I think 87k to 92k is a good estimate as of now.

With 87k, we get non-gaap loss of < $100M (compared to $494M loss in Q1). With 92k, we could get breakeven.

Yahoo analysts average is still loss of 0.54 cents EPS and 6.2B revenue. This is close to what I have for 87k deliveries (-0.43 EPS and 6.1B revenue).

If the report is true that Tesla is offering bonuses if delivery staff reach delivery milestones of 33,000 and 36,000 for the month of June; I would guess that it may equate the 33,000 to reaching 90,000 for the quarter (to meet guidance), and 36,000 equating to 93,000 for the quarter (would be thus best quarter to date).
 
Well, there’s VTA in eastern Silicon Valley. But then I’ve had a few encounters with some scary people on VTA(including one that kept punching the wall near me and yelling at me to move).

VTA buses run once in almost an hour. the trains are not much better in non-rush hour and the closest station is further away from my home than safeway is.

I guess I am getting old, carrying a week of food for a family of four and fiddling with the bus pass is not my idea of a good life. And with no car, I can't see how one can handle it with kids. All those late night trips to emergency rooms and drug stores, rushing to school to pick them up. BTW your kid might throw up in the backseat on the trip to the emergency room.

Or do young people stop having kids all together?
 
Man I couldn't wait until my 16th birthday, get my driver's license, and drive my birthday present, a 1961 Plymouth Valiant 4 door with a 170 slant six and push button automatic... a real chick magnet!

My kids can't wait either, older one already set his eyes on roadster 2.0. May be in for a disappointment for his first car :)
 
Do you have any approximate estimates for total EU deliveries, if these tends continue? Higher than 20k possible?

Overall, we will hit 20k but just Model 3 not will stay shy of that number. Norway is showing too much of a drop. Given that we had 5k Model 3's in transit in Europe at the start of Q2, I continue to qualify current results as 'not that brilliant'.
 
Well they want an independent board. Lutz would have them in full rebellion.
Ok, the more I think about it the more it would actually not surprise me. The two have known each other for a long time. Lutz has made attempts at making EVs which have mostly fallen flat. His main criticism of Musk was more about the difficulty of building cars (whether gas or electric) not about EVs per se. Lutz is getting old, I don't think he wants to leave this planet being known as a Tesla hater. He's coming to Jesus; he wants to leave with a legacy of success in EVs and being on board will achieve that for him. He's prob guilt-ridden from his past comments. This is his last chance to redeem his soul and put a stamp of success on his EV legacy.
 
Overall, we will hit 20k but just Model 3 not will stay shy of that number. Norway is showing too much of a drop. Given that we had 5k Model 3's in transit in Europe at the start of Q2, I continue to qualify current results as 'not that brilliant'.

I think it’s tough using early June data. Norway just looks to have started ramping up this week coinciding with a boat docking 6/6, have one docking yesterday/today, and another in a week. And on the other end you have Netherlands showing up really strong, (but Norway’s a larger market).

Had you based your numbers in Europe off March 11 you’d be off pretty significantly from the total, but overall I agree with your total 20-22k seems like the sweet spot.
 
Look at these Job Titles posted on Telsa's Jobs Search page since Jan 22, 2019:

View attachment 419203

Palo Alto:
  • Cell Engineer
  • Equipment Engineer, Cell Engineering
  • Staff Cell Modeling Engineer
  • Global Supply Manager- Cell Materials
  • Global Supply Manager, Battery Cell
  • Senior Cell Test Engineer
  • Global Supply Manager, Battery Cell
  • Cell Engineering - Process Technician
  • Cell Engineering - Test Technician
Fremont:
  • Process Engineer - Battery Cell
  • Equipment Engineer - Battery Cell
  • Thermal Engineer - Battery Cell

Yeah, I'd say Tesla's getting into the battery cell business.

Cheers!

Locations are interesting. Presumably the cells will be made where the packs are made, Nevada GF1. Would they have been told at interview that the job involved a move to Reno/Sparks at some critical date?
 
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Overall, we will hit 20k but just Model 3 not will stay shy of that number. Norway is showing too much of a drop. Given that we had 5k Model 3's in transit in Europe at the start of Q2, I continue to qualify current results as 'not that brilliant'.

My guess was early in the quarter that Tesla is going to prioritize U.S. deliveries in Q2 due to the second tax credit cliff: once the U.S. order books were full they didn't send more cars to Europe, other than the RHD version to the UK.

That's the logical thing to do if you are production constrained, have only a single factory, and if there's enough orders to fill closer to the factory. This probably wasn't the case in Q1 hence the large European wave in March.

There's two added complications: Raven appears to have ramped up only later in the quarter, not giving enough time to ship enough units to Europe, even if U.S. demand didn't speak for all production.

So I think Europe is probably going "as planned", the big question I think is China: Tesla pulled a number of demand levers there, and it's an open question whether the big one (announcing pricing and availability of the Shanghai made SR+) created enough demand for all cars that were shipped there in Q2.

And, of course, how well the end of quarter U.S. push will go - only ~two weeks left from the quarter.

VIN-ology seems to agree: there's 92,850 current Model 3 VIN's, 85% of which is 79k - with 15k-20k Model S/X production but an incremental increase in in-transit units of 5k we'd get total production of 94k-99k and deliveries of 89k-94k - which delivery range seems to agree with the leaks.