Overall, we will hit 20k but just Model 3 not will stay shy of that number. Norway is showing too much of a drop. Given that we had 5k Model 3's in transit in Europe at the start of Q2, I continue to qualify current results as 'not that brilliant'.
My guess was early in the quarter that Tesla is going to prioritize U.S. deliveries in Q2 due to the second tax credit cliff: once the U.S. order books were full they didn't send more cars to Europe, other than the RHD version to the UK.
That's the logical thing to do if you are production constrained, have only a single factory, and if there's enough orders to fill closer to the factory. This probably wasn't the case in Q1 hence the large European wave in March.
There's two added complications: Raven appears to have ramped up only later in the quarter, not giving enough time to ship enough units to Europe, even if U.S. demand didn't speak for all production.
So I think Europe is probably going "as planned", the big question I think is China: Tesla pulled a number of demand levers there, and it's an open question whether the big one (announcing pricing and availability of the Shanghai made SR+) created enough demand for all cars that were shipped there in Q2.
And, of course, how well the end of quarter U.S. push will go - only ~two weeks left from the quarter.
VIN-ology seems to agree: there's 92,850 current Model 3 VIN's, 85% of which is 79k - with 15k-20k Model S/X production but an incremental increase in in-transit units of 5k we'd get total production of 94k-99k and deliveries of 89k-94k - which delivery range seems to agree with the leaks.