Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

has reduced A/C costs by a good amount (the metal roof sits a above the roof decking so there is always air flow so the roof decking never gets hotter than ambient temperature).

It probably also helps that metal is a heat mirror.

 

[Bet TSLA]

One can always find examples to fit their narrative. It’s the “trend” that ultimately matters.

So we agree then. The trend is that fewer young people drive. I gave a couple of examples. Unless you have some evidence that this isn't true, why are you arguing?

Owning a car is seriously expensive, and pointless in many cases since the advent of TaaS. My kids don't even rely on TaaS. The older one uses the bus and walking to get where he wants to go, in the suburbs. He says he might consider getting a car when it drives itself, although he could easily afford to buy a Model S if he wanted to. The younger is a grad student and rarely needs to go anywhere so I can't see him wanting to drive in the foreseeable future.

My knowledge of other youngsters around that age is that this sort of thing is not uncommon. Many don't drive and have no intention of learning to do so. This was simply unthinkable when I was young. It's a significant change.

 

[SO16]

So we agree then. The trend is that fewer young people drive. I gave a couple of examples. Unless you have some evidence that this isn't true, why are you arguing?

Owning a car is seriously expensive, and pointless in many cases since the advent of TaaS. My kids don't even rely on TaaS. The older one uses the bus and walking to get where he wants to go, in the suburbs. He says he might consider getting a car when it drives itself, although he could easily afford to buy a Model S if he wanted to. The younger is a grad student and rarely needs to go anywhere so I can't see him wanting to drive in the foreseeable future.

My knowledge of other youngsters around that age is that this sort of thing is not uncommon. Many don't drive and have no intention of learning to do so. This was simply unthinkable when I was young. It's a significant change.

Who says I’m arguing?

 

[jerry33]

So we agree then. The trend is that fewer young people drive. I gave a couple of examples. Unless you have some evidence that this isn't true, why are you arguing?

Owning a car is seriously expensive, and pointless in many cases since the advent of TaaS. My kids don't even rely on TaaS. The older one uses the bus and walking to get where he wants to go, in the suburbs. He says he might consider getting a car when it drives itself, although he could easily afford to buy a Model S if he wanted to. The younger is a grad student and rarely needs to go anywhere so I can't see him wanting to drive in the foreseeable future.

My knowledge of other youngsters around that age is that this sort of thing is not uncommon. Many don't drive and have no intention of learning to do so. This was simply unthinkable when I was young. It's a significant change.

That works where there is a decent transit system. In many areas, it's ninety minutes for less than ten miles unless you just happen to live and work in exactly the right places. It seems that some cities intentionally make transit unusable to prevent "undesirables" from moving in.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I guess you are fired then.

Shoot it probably takes more than 10 minutes to program it once you get it in the car with the correct VIN and options, then you have to do a FW flash to get it on the correct version. And purge the air out of the coolant loop and replace any coolant that was lost during the swap. (Of course that requires R&R of the frunk tub, which is probably at least 10 minutes, but you would need to do that anyhow to connect the battery, because surely you aren't working on the car hot right?)

I wonder if they'll disconnect the ECU from the coolant loop, necessitating a refill and burp, or if it just comes off of a fixed backplate and they replace some thermal interface material between the case and the coolant plate without disturbing the coolant itself..

 

[BioSehnsucht]

That works where there is a decent transit system. In many areas, it's ninety minutes for less than ten miles unless you just happen to live and work in exactly the right places. It seems that some cities intentionally make transit unusable to prevent "undesirables" from moving in.

What I wouldn't give for the DART light rail in Dallas to gain a couple of loops and/or some lines that don't run through downtown, so I can get somewhere useful (hint: I never need to be downtown, unless I'm connecting to the green line to go to the State Fair)

If we had that, then they could redo the bus routes to be less terrible too, being mostly local service only with quick routes, instead of missing it and waiting an hour to go 5 minutes drive...

 

[Bet TSLA]

That works where there is a decent transit system. In many areas, it's ninety minutes for less than ten miles unless you just happen to live and work in exactly the right places. It seems that some cities intentionally make transit unusable to prevent "undesirables" from moving in.

True enough. And yet we see significant numbers of young people not in the market for a car. So they're making it work somehow.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

A completely unrelated question: Does anyone know if this 2019 Model S 85D is a Raven? Or just a typo?

I thought they only made 75kwh and 100kwh packs in 2019 and discontinued the 85kwh pack a while back.

Seems weird all around.

 

[MP3Mike]

I wonder if they'll disconnect the ECU from the coolant loop, necessitating a refill and burp, or if it just comes off of a fixed backplate and they replace some thermal interface material between the case and the coolant plate without disturbing the coolant itself..

I thought that the coolant went into the plate in the middle of the sandwich. APE computer on one side MCU computer on the other as a single unit. For the S&X the APE is air cooled so the issue is only in the Model 3 for HW2.5 to HW3 upgrades.

Of course what do you call the ECU?

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I thought that the coolant went into the plate in the middle of the sandwich. APE computer on one side MCU computer on the other as a single unit. For the S&X the APE is air cooled so the issue is only in the Model 3 for HW2.5 to HW3 upgrades.

Of course what do you call the ECU?

I suspect it will be a sandwiched plate, but it's possible they instead heat piped everything to one side and then used a thermal pad to get the heat to a cooled plate on the glycol loop. When people were referring to swapping out the ECU I just assumed they were referring to the MCU/APE combo on the Model 3.

 

[TradingInvest]

So we agree then. The trend is that fewer young people drive. I gave a couple of examples. Unless you have some evidence that this isn't true, why are you arguing?

Owning a car is seriously expensive, and pointless in many cases since the advent of TaaS. My kids don't even rely on TaaS. The older one uses the bus and walking to get where he wants to go, in the suburbs. He says he might consider getting a car when it drives itself, although he could easily afford to buy a Model S if he wanted to. The younger is a grad student and rarely needs to go anywhere so I can't see him wanting to drive in the foreseeable future.

My knowledge of other youngsters around that age is that this sort of thing is not uncommon. Many don't drive and have no intention of learning to do so. This was simply unthinkable when I was young. It's a significant change.

It's very easy to get biased conclusion if we emphasize a small set of data. All my sons' friends drive their own cars except one. That one has been relying on Uber and Lyft. Recently he also bought a used car because it can save him money. Not saying your data is wrong. You should look at a large and diverse sample set in order to have a valid conclusion.

 

[dqd88]

There was a bear attack between 12:30 and 12:55. 100k shares dumped @ 12:52, which helped them push below 211. But SP quickly back up now above 212.

ps : SP has been beaten down so badly this year, I've no faith in any kind of rallies anymore

By all account with short interest so high, SP should be going up - but we continue to see short attacks almost daily. Have to wonder how long they will continue to increase short % - if 6M shares can still be shorted (they shorted 2M more last week), they can continue at that rate till end of this month.

Perhaps we hover around here. On the plus side, we know there is solid support around $180.
I think for the SP to get back to ATH we need a jolt to the narrative. Tesla needs to convey the vision going out further than Semi/Roadster/Y/Pickup. (yes, I know there's robotaxi but to wall st that is sci-fi). Cars are tangible to Wall St. Even w/ said lineup, it's still no bigger than BMW. Why would an analyst give it a target of $100B market cap? T needs to say "over the next 10-20 years we plan to create 3 new nameplates each with 5 models". 15 new models coming. Focus on premium segment. You folks want Tesla to go into low margin mass market segment but yet you expect Wall St to salivate over what? low margins? T needs to focus on high margin segment, that's the only viable option and that's what will get Wall St excited. Yeah a sub $30k car is good for environment but there's no money in it, so you can't expect SP to go high if you want Tesla to go low with prices. Good batteries are a luxury. Superchargers are a luxury.
Tesla needs to focus on owning the premium space. Tesla should end up with 80% market share there in 10 years. THEN it can move into mass market segments. Story should be that Tesla will be as big as Merc/BMW/Audi combined.
Let VW, Nissan, et al focus on low margin segments. Low range. sub par products. It will weaken them over time as they lose money and create sub par reputation on range/performance. The brand aura gap will widen and it will only make Tesla look better. Barring some sudden breakthrough in battery tech (or yes, autonomy, but investors aren't buying that story), this is going to be a slow grind.

 

[EVNow]

"[Q2] sales have far exceeded production, and production has been pretty good, so we're actually doing doing well, and we have a decent shot at a record quarter on every level, [...] if not it's gonna be very close, [...] we've got a shot at a record quarter, and 90% of orders are coming from non reservation holders, so these are new customers."

I think when he says "record quarter on every level", he is talking about p&d numbers. Q4 revenue is difficult to beat unless s+x deliveries reach 25k.

Also looking at the " if not it's gonna be very close," - I think the likely scenario is for deliveries to be a few thousand below 91k. So I think 87k to 92k is a good estimate as of now.

With 87k, we get non-gaap loss of < $100M (compared to $494M loss in Q1). With 92k, we could get breakeven.

Yahoo analysts average is still loss of 0.54 cents EPS and 6.2B revenue. This is close to what I have for 87k deliveries (-0.43 EPS and 6.1B revenue).

 

[wipster]

So we agree then. The trend is that fewer young people drive. I gave a couple of examples. Unless you have some evidence that this isn't true, why are you arguing?

Owning a car is seriously expensive, and pointless in many cases since the advent of TaaS. My kids don't even rely on TaaS. The older one uses the bus and walking to get where he wants to go, in the suburbs. He says he might consider getting a car when it drives itself, although he could easily afford to buy a Model S if he wanted to. The younger is a grad student and rarely needs to go anywhere so I can't see him wanting to drive in the foreseeable future.

My knowledge of other youngsters around that age is that this sort of thing is not uncommon. Many don't drive and have no intention of learning to do so. This was simply unthinkable when I was young. It's a significant change.

Man I couldn't wait until my 16th birthday, get my driver's license, and drive my birthday present, a 1961 Plymouth Valiant 4 door with a 170 slant six and push button automatic... a real chick magnet!

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I thought they only made 75kwh and 100kwh packs in 2019 and discontinued the 85kwh pack a while back.

Seems weird all around.

Well, the SR is and has been 285 miles, where the 75D was 259. Could be 85kWh.

 

[Alphacrux]

Perhaps we hover around here. On the plus side, we know there is solid support around $180.
I think for the SP to get back to ATH we need a jolt to the narrative. Tesla needs to convey the vision going out further than Semi/Roadster/Y/Pickup. (yes, I know there's robotaxi but to wall st that is sci-fi). Cars are tangible to Wall St. Even w/ said lineup, it's still no bigger than BMW. Why would an analyst give it a target of $100B market cap? T needs to say "over the next 10-20 years we plan to create 3 new nameplates each with 5 models". 15 new models coming. Focus on premium segment. You folks want Tesla to go into low margin mass market segment but yet you expect Wall St to salivate over what? low margins? T needs to focus on high margin segment, that's the only viable option and that's what will get Wall St excited. Yeah a sub $30k car is good for environment but there's no money in it, so you can't expect SP to go high if you want Tesla to go low with prices. Good batteries are a luxury. Superchargers are a luxury.
Tesla needs to focus on owning the premium space. Tesla should end up with 80% market share there in 10 years. THEN it can move into mass market segments.
Let VW, Nissan, et al focus on low margin segments. Low range. sub par products. It will weaken them over time as they lose money and create sub par reputation on range/performance. The brand aura gap will widen and it will only make Tesla look better. Unless there is some sudden breakthrough in battery tech (or yes, autonomy, but investors aren't buying that story), this is going to be a slow grind.

You want massive profit? Trucks, trucks, and more trucks!

 

[Remus]

So we agree then. The trend is that fewer young people drive. I gave a couple of examples. Unless you have some evidence that this isn't true, why are you arguing?

Owning a car is seriously expensive, and pointless in many cases since the advent of TaaS. My kids don't even rely on TaaS. The older one uses the bus and walking to get where he wants to go, in the suburbs. He says he might consider getting a car when it drives itself, although he could easily afford to buy a Model S if he wanted to. The younger is a grad student and rarely needs to go anywhere so I can't see him wanting to drive in the foreseeable future.

My knowledge of other youngsters around that age is that this sort of thing is not uncommon. Many don't drive and have no intention of learning to do so. This was simply unthinkable when I was young. It's a significant change.

I don't know where you live but here in silicone valley (not San Francisco) it's next to impossible to survive without a car. Plain old grocery shopping becomes a hassle as buses run like once in an hour.

 

[Steve m]

Okay mr. EE. Why don't you check out the real world and see what's involved in accessing the Tesla ECU __AFTER__ the car has been assembled. You either don't get this point, or are being deliberately ignorant.

Here, this might help (this is how you access the MCU - not 10 minutes) :

And this is what's inside the MCU (skip to the 2:08 mark):

Yes, the second part __might__ be a 5-minute swap, and where your comment would be relevant, but you've missed the entire first part of tearing out the dash to get the MCU!

Does that clear it up yet?

Thank you... You missed where I stated don't bother to bolt the testecu or the shipping ecu unit in. Is there a need to assemble the dash until just before delivery?

Would it be worth 10s of millions of dollars on savings?

 

[mekberg]

It probably also helps that metal is a heat mirror.

Like, a heat shield?

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Well, the SR is and has been 285 miles, where the 75D was 259. Could be 85kWh.

What was the SR pre Raven efficiency bump?