Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
It's 32A @ 230V and three phases, while yours is 400A @ 120V single phase I suppose? So a bit closer in kW terms, but still true.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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It's 32A @ 230V and three phases, while yours is 400A @ 120V single phase I suppose? So a bit closer in kW terms, but still true.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
See my (late) edit: he "couldn't convince the developer" that more power is required.
Well, duh ...
If I had installed three-phase power, I could have gotten 200 amps per phase. If that was true of each of the 20 houses, that would be plenty.
The developer just didn't want to install a bigger power connection. Pathetic.
OK, so a rare non-response posting from me:
I think the world would already be in a recession right now if not for the booming renewable energy industry (solar, wind, batteries, heat pumps, electric vehicles). I'm seeing a lot of negative wealth-effect behavior -- a lot of drying up of investment and spending. Companies and individuals are mostly in full cash-hoarding mode, and the tariff wars have exacerbated that. And of course we've had no growth in wages in most industries for years, or of hiring.
But the Great Energy Transition is leading to such a huge boom that it's swamping what would otherwise be a recession. And investing in the energy transition is money-saving, so people and companies are doing it even in cash-saving mode. That's what I predicted, and I think I'm seeing it now.
Should be interesting. Have to go back to the 19th century to find a historical parallel to this.
I think the world would already be in a recession right now if not for the booming renewable energy industry (solar, wind, batteries, heat pumps, electric vehicles). I'm seeing a lot of negative wealth-effect behavior -- a lot of drying up of investment and spending. Companies and individuals are mostly in full cash-hoarding mode, and the tariff wars have exacerbated that. And of course we've had no growth in wages in most industries for years, or of hiring.
But the Great Energy Transition is leading to such a huge boom that it's swamping what would otherwise be a recession. And investing in the energy transition is money-saving, so people and companies are doing it even in cash-saving mode. That's what I predicted, and I think I'm seeing it now.
Should be interesting. Have to go back to the 19th century to find a historical parallel to this.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Yeah, and I bet that within 10 years they'll retrofit even higher capacity EV charging stations, for these apartments to simply stay competitive in the post-ICE rental market, at ten times the expense...
do you own an EV? I guess not. I life in Vienna and I'd be happy to have a 1x16A/230v in my garage. the other owners of the building are blocking my request...Yeah, and I bet that within 10 years they'll retrofit even higher capacity EV charging stations, for these apartments to simply stay competitive in the post-ICE rental market, at ten times the expense...
After 4 months of owning a M3 I learned that 3.7kW is fine for daily use.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I think in 20 years it will be called the Fourth Industrial Revolution, transforming and disrupting ~20% of world GDP.
Actually, under the new SEC rules from last year you have to disclose your twitter or any anonymous social media account to your clients. It's not a secret this is Chanos.
"The SEC, beginning in 2018, is requiring registered investment advisors to disclose any social media anonymous accounts, on Form ADV.” The SEC, according to hedge fund attorneys, considers social media a form of marketing. If hedge fund moguls want to talk their book, they must disclose it."
https://www.institutionalinvestor.c...tter-Account-to-Take-on-Markets-and-Elon-Musk
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Counter to this is the problem of when to start. Prices keep falling so the impulse is not to invest but to wait for the better deal. Is there a tipping point?
You mentioned “negative wealth effect behavior” as I would assume a macro effect. Love to hear a bit more as to specific behaviors.
Good stuff.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
The article was about new greenfield residential construction in Germany of relatively big, 20-100 apartments complexes and garage space, where they could have gotten a megawatt power grid feed if they wanted to.
I fully agree that owner initiated charging installation is pain, especially in inner cities, almost everywhere in the world - but within 10 years it will be seen as a basic, essential amenity of rental properties.
A bit like Internet connectivity was a luxury 20-30 years ago, today it's almost a basic human right. The EV transition will be faster IMO.
Looks like overkill to me. And FUD. Saying every car needs a separate 16A plug. What is usually done in Norway is a load balancing setup where the most common scenario is charging you car overnight.
Most cars don't use 100% of battery capacity every day anyway. So perhaps charging 30-50% is needed in a 12 hour period when you eat dinner, relax and sleep.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
This.
Beware of disrupted industries claiming there is a recession and seeking govt handouts. Call them out, set them straight. It’s not recession, it’s disruption. Adapt or fold. Many had ample opportunity to be part of the disruption but squandered their opportunity and ignored all warnings from the likes of Elon Musk.
Early days yet and only the watchers have spotted the signs. As it becomes obvious, investors will sell stocks from the old economy and buy into the new economy. This is another reason to shout loudly “disruption not recession”, lest macros be affected and we find TSLA swimming upstream.
The oil price has traditionally been an economic temperature gauge. From here on, the market has to learn to hang that thermometer upside down! Not easy for old timers. As the new economy booms, the oil price falls. Spread the word.
Edit: An additional key point. This boom, unlike previous booms, will not have the usual oil price spike to act as upper limit. We keep accelerating till we find a new upper limit.
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Yeah, and I bet that within 10 years they'll retrofit even higher capacity EV charging stations, for these apartments to simply stay competitive in the post-ICE rental market, at ten times the expense...
And with a flexible load balancing setup, those higher capacity EV charging stations can continue to be served from a relatively weak grid connection.
Just for comparisons: I have a separate three phase 50A 230V circuit going into my house originally meant for both heating and a boiler (the boiler is now on a heat pump on the main circuit), in addition to the main one (3*32A@230V). You pay extra for things like that, but it's reasonable. If they can't get that for luxury flats, then I'm living in extreme luxury.
OTOH, my parents are living in an older apartment and that is indeed severely constrained. It's just not something that I'd expect to be a problem for anything built that's newer (in Belgium), unless you were braindead, did no planning, and then tried to install chargers as an afterthought.
In the Netherlands the situation is very different: getting a higher amperage main circuit breaker has a huge monthly cost. The Dutch still have chargers, but usually with a smart meter and a load balancer that is limiting amperage to the car charger if the rest of the house is drawing too much.
That too could be installed in Germany, and then you'd have a non-issue -- each apartment would charge their car on their main circuit breaker, but only at full amperage when they weren't using oven/boiler/electric heaters/large electrical appliances etc. Since most people want to charge at night, that's usually a non-issue. Of course in this case they could also have a smart meter / load balancer upstream and then you'd only have an issue if everyone was both partying hard at night and charging their Model X (and they'd all have to leave on a road trip the morning after).
But my guess is that if you want to call something a luxury apartment you still need circuits that indeed let everyone party all night and charge a model X.
TL;DR: the guy planning for the apartments is arguing from personal incredulity and lack of imagination. It's impossible if you want it to be, or if you haven't done your job and want to blame someone else.
dqd88
Member
Idk, for me, I like departures. I see it as an opportunity to reduce overhead. Perhaps the position served a purpose during a particular phase, or perhaps the duties overlap with another position and consolidation is possible. It's a chance to re-evaluate roles & responsibilities and a chance to optimize the "org chart" - an ongoing, important exercise for fast growing companies. As long as it's not an adversarial or key departure, I mostly see it as a positive.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
re:the apartment issue. Surely in Germany of all places, where solar is popular as sausages, any apartment block should have at least *some* solar on the roof, and some local battery storage? That should at least partly reduce the need for super-high-power grid connections?
I wish my house was not old (and *listed*) and I could get a solar roof. I already have 2.1kwp in the driveway, but its partly shaded and this is the UK.... my goal would always be to be able to charge my car without ever buying power from the dirty grid. One day maybe...
I wish my house was not old (and *listed*) and I could get a solar roof. I already have 2.1kwp in the driveway, but its partly shaded and this is the UK.... my goal would always be to be able to charge my car without ever buying power from the dirty grid. One day maybe...
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
LOL. since when is 'head of diversity' of a company leaving a news item? Not exactly CFO is it? I expect regular updates if any janitors quit.
dqd88
Member
I partly agree. I think the EV revolution (with Tesla as the main catalyst), is certainly a force that is stimulating to the economy. But I also think, at a high level, that we are exiting a "classical economics" phase (1700s - today). Just my own theory - but what I see is a much shorter "distance", and fewer barriers, between the core ingredients to start businesses (idea, investors, management, labor, capex, materials, etc) Capital is a commodity. Risk aversion is replaced with bold ventures fueled by billionaires who, aware of their own mortality, see macro opportunities and existential threats and, instead of hording capital, and preserving it for their offspring, want to put it towards these really big ideas.
Not only are the big fish deploying capital more freely, but the small aspiring entrepreneur is much more able to pursue their ideas/access capital than at any point in the past.
Low inflation, low int rates, low unemployment. Economists don't have an answer.
Ironically, it may also be Tesla and the EV revolution that cause a recession via a major contraction in the (ICE) auto sector. I think it depends on how the OEM's approach this shift. If they keep dragging their feet, they may find themselves at risk having to close up shop and lay off many thousands of workers. If they pick up the pace and aggressively invest in and pursue the transition, it will stimulate job creation, offsetting jobs lost from ICE contraction.
We are, as you and FC and other posters have pointed out, in a new industrial revolution. But in addition, along side the EV revolution, which will employ many thousands, there is a what I might call a "long tail" revolution. Where we have many many smaller ideas (in terms of economic contribution) such as "meatless" meat, CBD/weed, crypto, bio therapies, space exploration, ridesharing, fintech, etc, that alone perhaps are of nominal impact but combined I think have a big stimulating effect. Like no time before, people are trying things, and it is easier for good ideas to find capital.
So I think, even if there is a recession, it will be small and short. And this will be the case over say the next 20 years.
/end ramble
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