Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Spacemanspliff]

Oddly enough a 13th boat just popped up, datas a bit scrambled but I think it arrives 6/18. We'll see if this is one and where it goes.

Additionally per twitter people in the UK are getting delivery dates of 6/20, implying Grand Dahlia had some.

Boat went to Benicia, remains to be seen if it will head to Pier 80 after.

 

[Fact Checking]

There is a possibility that Elon and Zac have thought about this number and could game the FCA deal to bring in revenue in Q2. That deal is big enough to move the needle.

It's not "gaming" anything if Tesla management has discretion to shift profits between quarters in a GAAP compliant fashion, and S&P 500 inclusion is in shareholders' best interest.

If they know about it, which is a BIG if, in January Elon seemed to be blissfully unaware of the consequences of releasing bad news with bad timing:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable​

 

[Fact Checking]

They will have to bring in >$400M.

>$251.14m I believe:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable​

 

[ggr]

Thanks! IMHO not OT because this is FUD slowing the adoption of BEVs in Germany.

It looks not only like FUD but wrong-headedness about the nature of home charging.

Looking a bit closer at this:
“Now, in a new housing development (about 100 apartments in 12 houses) the following happened. The client wants to have installed at least 20 charging stations for electric cars in the common underground car park.”

So,

• Instead of including a dedicated outlet of some standard variety at each parking space, they planned to offer a small number of “charging station spots”, maybe 20 0f these for 100 apartments. Because one would have to move into and out of these spots instead of leaving the car there for the night, they wanted to make them “fast charging”.
• This seems altogether a terrible idea. No one wants to have a fueling station in the corner of a parking garage that you have to drive back and forth to from your assigned spot. The whole convenience of BEVs is tied to “park it for the night and plug it in”. It also probably means that the building owner would have pay for all use of these stations, instead of being able to bill the electricity to each apartment.
• I think they calculated that they would need 32a for each of these “common” charging stations to justify them being “fast” and therefore ok to share. Again that seems a stretch to call that “fast”, and why not 20a for every spot instead. More total capacity but can be billed to each apartment.
  
• I suppose it could be that they didn’t even plan to have assigned parking spots, just a key card to get in and out, and open parking. Note that this is “about 100 apartments” spread across 12 structures, so unclear whether it is one large underground garage under all of the buildings (probably 12 with 8 apartments each), or 12 separate underground garages, but I am assuming for cost reasons that it must be one big garage for all.
• Apparently it never occurred to the builder to just supply a moderately-powered outlet for each parking space, BUT the garage may be designed like a commercial shopping mall garage, where lots of spaces are out in the open and not near any support columns where power can be attached.
• ABOVE says to me that it is hard to claim that these are “luxury” apartments, which I am pretty sure I read somewhere, especially my suspicion that the garage is just a sea of open area with painted lines and unassigned spots.

So, FUD, incompetence, or both?

A simple normal wall socket for each parking spot would be plenty, given that people could just charge overnight. But you have to live with an EV to understand this. People who haven't still think it terms of taking the car somewhere to charge it, and then you have to charge it quickly. And that socket would be useful for other things, like power tools or vacuums.

 

[ZachF]

Macro



I have to disagree on this point because of the number of entrepeneurial ventures I've personally seen fail for lack of capital recently. Most people are way too impoverished to finance a business. Wealth inequality is so high that it is suppressing entrepeneurship -- it was a lot easier to start a business in the 1950s, frankly.

Also, zoning-type restrictions on construction have meant that prices for a *good location* have gotten worse than ever -- though a "storefront on the web" is cheap, if your startup starts expanding to the point where you have a lot of employees, they're driving to work at some horrible location surrounded by fields or abandoned buildings which was the only location you could afford.

Honestly, the college/higher education bubble is choking the life out of this economy. Kid's aren't forming families/businesses/households in the numbers they should because they are often saddled with a mortgage-sized student loan bill they have to pay off first.

It used to take 500 hours of minimum wage to afford a year of college; now it takes 2,500. This is during the same period of time that the price of information has essentially collapsed.

 

[ggr]

The S&P500 is limited to 500 companies. For TSLA to get included, someone would have to be dropped from the index. Who to drop and why may be a big part of the decision process. What are your thoughts on how this might work?

My understanding (possibly incorrect) is that they just drop the company with the lowest current market cap. They wouldn't have been lowest if they weren't underperforming, since companies always come in above the bottom.

 

[ggr]

The FAIRness of the reporting cannot be completely determined by the article’s content alone. It can’t be called fair, no matter how good the research and writing, if departures of similar-level execs from OTHER companies get no ink.

Anyone have an objective read on that?

If you Google "head of diversity leaves", the first page of results talks only about Google itself and Nike... no Tesla.
head of diversity leaves - Google Search

 

[Fact Checking]

Honestly, the college/higher education bubble is choking the life out of this economy. Kid's aren't forming families/businesses/households in the numbers they should because they are often saddled with a mortgage-sized student loan bill they have to pay off first.

It used to take 500 hours of minimum wage to afford a year of college; now it takes 2,500. This is during the same period of time that the price of information has essentially collapsed.

Also, kids don't have much of a choice: high school only education is a stigma for life in most of the western world, closing many, many doors in life.

I.e. while college education is not an income guarantee anymore, not having a degree is a guarantee of much reduced opportunities.

(Of course there's plenty of success stories of college dropouts, but it usually requires choosing the right parents at birth.)

 

[Nocturnal]

There is a mechanical linkage between the steering wheel and the steering rack that can not be disconnected. That's why you can still steer the car safely if there is a complete electrical failure.

It you turn the wheel and the tires don't move, the steering is broken.

I have been corrected. It looks like there is a system to multiply user input on the wheel and that is turned off. The actual wheels are turning a very small amount. (new video was release)

Honestly this is just a Tesla mind trick to under sell leasing and at the same time putting confident behind their FSD technology and potential value proposition of the Model 3 being an appreciating asset.

Tesla said you can't buy your leased car after 3 years which get you that feeling that if you don't buy today, you'll only be able to drive a model 3 for three years. After 3 years, your friends/family/Tesla will be making 30k/year renting their cars out while you are out of luck losing out.

But Tesla never said you can't lease another new model 3 or just buy a cpo. I mean how many people buy their car after a lease? Leasees love the feeling of having a new car every three years anyway. Its a really good marketing trick that people are falling for.

If robotaxis actually work, at that point used Teslas will be impossible to find. CPOs will also be impossible. I'm not convinced that new Teslas will be possible to acquire either, at least until production can ramp up by several multiples. Not only would Tesla have a disincentive to sell you a car that could be used in the fleet, you would be competing with other buyers who will be buying multiple vehicles just for taxi purposes. On top of that this would mean that more consumers and companies will be very interesting in buying Teslas for their own use. ​

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Norway is already at 253 for the day, so this may become the first 300 day of the quarter. Model 3 is still only LR and P, which is a positive sign. And with the arrival of SR+ the daily numbers will probably explode. Also every day 25 to 30 pre-Raven X and S get a new owner in Norway. The inventory of these cars in Europe, which was still pretty large 1-2 months ago, is dwindling fast. In The Netherlands there are 42 left out of the 700+ we saw two months ago. I doubt Tesla will have many left at the end of the quarter.

 

[ZachF]

Norway is already at 253 for the day, so this may become the first 300 day of the quarter. Model 3 is still only LR and P, which is a positive sign. And with the arrival of SR+ the daily numbers will probably explode. Also every day 25 to 30 pre-Raven X and S get a new owner in Norway. The inventory of these cars, which was still pretty large last month, is dwindling fast. I doubt Tesla will have many left at the end of the quarter.

Jelly of Norway's level of transportation electrification.

 

[Zaxxon]

Norway is already at 253 for the day, so this may become the first 300 day of the quarter. Model 3 is still only LR and P, which is a positive sign. And with the arrival of SR+ the daily numbers will probably explode. Also every day 25 to 30 pre-Raven X and S get a new owner in Norway. The inventory of these cars, which was still pretty large last month, is dwindling fast. I doubt Tesla will have many left at the end of the quarter.

Also worth noting that this Q just passed Q4 2017 and has taken the 2nd spot behind only Q1 2019. Still looking unlikely [to me] that that record will be broken (would need to average 363 registrations/day from here on out), but it's possible.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Norway is already at 253 for the day, so this may become the first 300 day of the quarter. Model 3 is still only LR and P, which is a positive sign. And with the arrival of SR+ the daily numbers will probably explode. Also every day 25 to 30 pre-Raven X and S get a new owner in Norway. The inventory of these cars in Europe, which was still pretty large 1-2 months ago, is dwindling fast. In The Netherlands there are 42 left out of the 700+ we saw two months ago. I doubt Tesla will have many left at the end of the quarter.

What is your reasoning that those are all Pre Raven.

 

[larmor]

Why does Boeing get a free pass? Their planes (ie inventory) is grounded and undelivered. They have a known flaw and they have a poor record of training pilots and customers about their new software. Despite all this, no one is calling for dismantling the boeing board, chairmanship, ceo, cfo etc. No one that i know (and pls correct me if otherwise) is running to the SEC and telling them how boeing knowingly sold flawed and dangerous planes and thus eroding shareholder value.

Let me know, because i hardly think the panic and fear over tesla shipping cars to overseas destinations is justified, those cars are sold and delivered. What about the shanghai tesla GF, are they planning on building one of the worlds largest factories from scratch so they can make cars and park them on a lot, ala boeing 737supermax...

 

[Artful Dodger]

surprise Q1 Q2 GAAP profit

lol, FTFY. Unless you're Stephen Hawking, in which case please do, fix Q1.
TIA (arrears?)

Cheers!

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Whats your reasoning those are all Pre Raven.

They are being registered as S75D, S100D and X100D. Raven should be SR and LR, right? Also I have not seen any reports of Raven deliveries in Europe yet.

 

[Fact Checking]

@neroden's been rightfully complaining about the lack of service centers in upstate NY, Tesla is now doing something about it:

New Service Center in Upstate NY! (Henrietta NY, just south of Rochester) : teslamotors​

Much of such expenses would be capex and not hurt GAAP income immediately, but there's probably some opex (SG&A) increase from new service centers.

Well worth it, of course: service availability generates organic demand.

 

[Remus]

Why does Boeing get a free pass? Their planes (ie inventory) is grounded and undelivered. They have a known flaw and they have a poor record of training pilots and customers about their new software. Despite all this, no one is calling for dismantling the boeing board, chairmanship, ceo, cfo etc. No one that i know (and pls correct me if otherwise) is running to the SEC and telling them how boeing knowingly sold flawed and dangerous planes and thus eroding shareholder value.

Let me know, because i hardly think the panic and fear over tesla shipping cars to overseas destinations is justified, those cars are sold and delivered. What about the shanghai tesla GF, are they planning on building one of the worlds largest factories from scratch so they can make cars and park them on a lot, ala boeing 737supermax...

Toyota too, with their cars self acceleration killing people.

 

[Nocturnal]

Why does Boeing get a free pass? Their planes (ie inventory) is grounded and undelivered. They have a known flaw and they have a poor record of training pilots and customers about their new software. Despite all this, no one is calling for dismantling the boeing board, chairmanship, ceo, cfo etc. No one that i know (and pls correct me if otherwise) is running to the SEC and telling them how boeing knowingly sold flawed and dangerous planes and thus eroding shareholder value.

Let me know, because i hardly think the panic and fear over tesla shipping cars to overseas destinations is justified, those cars are sold and delivered. What about the shanghai tesla GF, are they planning on building one of the worlds largest factories from scratch so they can make cars and park them on a lot, ala boeing 737supermax...

Strategic industry for national defense purposes. Lots of coverage and guaranteed bailout no matter what IMO.

 

[wipster]

They are being registered as S75D, S100D and X100D. Raven should be SR and LR, right? Also I have not seen any reports of Raven deliveries in Europe yet.

Thanks for the info. Do you know if they're selling them at a substantial discount to clear the inventory for Raven S and X? Just curious.